Macro Risk Indicator

FRED Data
Current Risk Level
46 MODERATE
0
Minimal Risk
50
Moderate
100
Extreme Risk
Last updated: Oct 21, 2026
Risk Factor Breakdown
Earnings Seasons
Quarterly reporting periods
100.0
100.0%
US Market Holidays
VIX levels & sentiment
3.0
3.0%
Economic Data Releases
CPI, Jobs, GDP releases
79.2
79.2%
Federal Reserve (FOMC)
FOMC meetings & rate decisions
3.0
3.0%
Market Volatility (VIX)
VIX levels & sentiment
45.0
45.0%
Trading Recommendation
⚡ MODERATE RISK: Trade with normal caution. Some volatility possible. 📉 Economic data day: Expect volatility at 8:30 AM ET around PCE, CPI, Jobs, GDP, and durable goods releases. Size down until after the print. 📈 Earnings season: Individual stock volatility likely elevated.
30-Day Risk History
Upcoming High-Impact Events (Next 30 Days)
Date Event Type Impact Days Until
Oct 21, Wed
Tesla (TSLA) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Tesla is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 4 TODAY
Oct 21, Wed
Meta Platforms (META) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Meta Platforms is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 TODAY
Oct 23, Fri
U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Scheduled 10:00 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 2d
Oct 27, Tue
Durable Goods Orders MoM
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 6d
Oct 28, Wed
Alphabet (GOOGL) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Alphabet is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 7d
Oct 28, Wed
Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Microsoft is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 7d
Oct 28, Wed
Meta Platforms (META) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Meta Platforms is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 7d
Oct 29, Thu
Apple (AAPL) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Apple is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 8d
Oct 29, Thu
Amazon (AMZN) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Amazon is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 8d
Oct 29, Thu
Core PCE Price Index MoM
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 5 8d
Oct 29, Thu
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 5 8d
Nov 02, Mon
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Scheduled 10:00 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 5 12d
Nov 02, Mon
Apple (AAPL) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). Apple is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 12d
Nov 03, Tue
JOLTS Job Openings
Scheduled 10:00 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 5 13d
Nov 04, Wed
ISM Services PMI
Scheduled 10:00 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 5 14d
Nov 05, Thu
FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee meeting concludes. Interest rate decision and policy statement released at 2:00 PM ET. Press conference with Fed Chair typically follows. 		Federal Reserve Events Level 5 15d
Nov 06, Fri
Nonfarm Payrolls
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 5 16d
Nov 06, Fri
Unemployment Rate
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 16d
Nov 06, Fri
U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Scheduled 10:00 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 16d
Nov 10, Tue
CPI MoM
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 5 20d
Nov 11, Wed
Veterans Day - Reduced Participation
Market open but expect LOW VOLUME and REDUCED PARTICIPATION. Many traders take the day off. Higher risk of unpredictable moves and wider spreads. 		Holiday Proximity Level 5 21d
Nov 12, Thu
Existing Home Sales MoM
Scheduled 10:00 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 22d
Nov 13, Fri
PPI MoM
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 23d
Nov 17, Tue
NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings
Mega-cap earnings report (after hours). NVIDIA is a major index / sector mover. 		Earnings Season Level 5 27d
Nov 17, Tue
Retail Sales MoM
Scheduled 08:30 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 27d
Nov 20, Fri
U-Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Scheduled 10:00 AM ET 		Economic Data Release Level 4 30d