8:30 DATA,
accumulation low,
Cut Trade Early,
ESMI Data,
LIS (Bearish),
Lowerband to VWAP,
M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation,
M1 Candle High (Hold Above) Lowerband,
Turtle Soup (Prior Daily Low),
Here are the key takeaways from today's trading notes:
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Neutral Opening Approach: You began the day with no specific directional bias, opting to read pure price action during the 9:30 trading session, while keeping in mind the 4-day bearish orderblock from last week.
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Bearish Context Awareness: Despite no bias, you were conscious of the prevailing bearish trend from the 4-day bearish orderblock and the overnight selloff, indicating the market might lean bearish.
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Caution Due to Contract Rollover: Aware of the increased potential for market chop during contract rollover, you decided to avoid meaningless trades and only take an A+ setup with good risk-to-reward.
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Volatility and No Hasty Entry: You observed high volatility and waited for a confirmed multi-timeframe variation switch before executing a trade, showing patience and discipline in managing risk.
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Technical Analysis Led Long Trade: Even though the market was flushing to the downside, you anticipated a short squeeze due to sellers trying to sell low rather than high. This led to a long entry targeting the 4-day bearish orderblock for a retest.
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Missed "Trade of the Day" Setup: You identified the 9:30 short as the "Trade of the Day" setup, a strategy that had worked last week, but you didn't execute it today.
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Conservative Trade Management: After entering long, you covered the trade early, booking a profit of around 1 R. Despite this, you left the trade template on the screen to see how the trade might have unfolded if held longer.
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Second Trade Opportunity: After cutting the first trade at 1R, you re-entered in case of a squeeze to the upside, effectively managing risk and positioning for potential upside.
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Reflections on Swing Shorts: You noted that the successful shorts for the day were those who held positions from Friday's close. You remain curious about whether the market will retest key levels in the upcoming session.
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New Rule for Orderblocks: You implemented a rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it lowers the probability of a successful entry. This added to your caution about taking further short trades.
Summary:
- You maintained a disciplined, cautious approach with no bias.
- Took a long position despite the bearish context, capitalizing on a potential short squeeze.
- Missed executing the "Trade of the Day" short setup.
- Ended the day up 1 R, showing strong risk management.
Today, we came into the trading day with no directional bias, and decided that we would just read pure price action from the opening bell for the 9:30 trading session.
One thing that I kept in mind from last Friday, was that we have bearish orderflow & distribution from the 4 day bearish orderblock. So when I came to the computer today, I noticed that we were selling off from the overnight, and everything seemed like a bearish bias would have been the correct though process for the trading day, but I still aproached it with an open mind, to just wait for a clean price action signal with good risk to reward, and that I would be content it I didnt execute a trade on the day. We had a bearish line in the sand, and a VWAP lowerband that wasnt being respected in the overnight session.
I also was aware that there was a contract rollover for the Nasdaq, and I have noticed in the past that there tends to be more chop during contract rollover. Ontop of that, volatility for the trading session was high, so I knew that if there wasnt an A+ setup, I would be content with not trading, to avoid taking any meaningless losses.
When the market opened, we flushed to the downside, but at this point I was just reading price action, and I was waiting for full confirmation of a variation switch from a multi timeframe analysis persepctive.
I also had in mind that this new weekly candle that has opened, is still in a bearish downtrend, and currently still distributing from the 4 day bearish orderblock, with the prior weekly high, as a supply area.
But i figured that, there was an extremity to the downside, without full price action confirmation to take the short side trade, and from my technical analysis, it displayed that the real short entry for longs on the session, was near the pre market high and the 4 day bearish orerblock. So I began to assume that shorts would be squeezed due to the fact that they were trying to sell low, rather than sell high.
So when I went long, I targeted the 4 day bearish orderblock, assuming that we could see a retest, and look for short entries if they provided an opportunity.
But as it stands, todays price action displayed that the real shorts who won on the session, were those that swung short from the friday close over the weekend, from the 19555.25 level. I am curious to see if the market will provide another retest of this level. Because there is also an un swept liquidit area above it for a weekly bearish orderblock, but the thing is, if we manage to make it to that level, it will likely be invalidated due to the fact that we recently implemented a new rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it is a less likely chance it will be a high probability trading entry.
So my thought process is, that if shorts want to stay in control, then this weekly candle should flush out, and hold the 4 day bearish orderblock for a drop lower. For that reason, I left my current trade template still on the screen, even though I covered early, to see if the trade theoretically would have worked if I swung.
Another important thing to note, if that I didnt execute the 'trade of the day setup' that was working all of last week. From what Im looking at, the 9:30 short was the trade of the day setup, and also the overnight short. So i decided to mark those, since they are currently positoned. Will be very telling to see if they get knocked out of position in the overnight and premarket session before tomorrows trading day.
With that being said, I ended the day green, up around 1 R-Multiple.
I cut my first trade at 1R, and immediately re entered incase we squeezed to the upside, to bankroll the second trade if it worked.
