1D 5M (Month VWAP), 1D VWAP Confluence, 50BPS, FOMC Day, LIS (Bullish), LIS M1 Demand Hold, Lowerband to Upperband Long, M5 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M5 Entry, Rate Cut, Take Profit Hit, VWAP (MONTH) Lowerband to Upperband, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, Wk Bearish Orderblock Target,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Improved Mindset and Process:

   • You felt that your trading approach has leveled up, emphasizing the value of journaling and preparation. This shift from impulsive execution to a data-driven strategy, along with the influence of Lance’s quote about work outside of trading, has led to more focused and patient trading.
   • Focusing on Expected Value Dynamics and waiting for full reactions off key levels has sharpened your decision-making, boosting your confidence.

2. Strong Execution During FOMC:

   • You executed with a bullish bias based on solid technical reasons, including a weekly trend shift and untapped liquidity. This analysis led to your best trading day on the evaluation, earning over $600 with just 2 micros, indicating improved performance and risk management.

3. Adaptability and Use of VWAP:

   • You adjusted your strategy by utilizing a longer-term VWAP on the 5-minute chart to confirm entries. This led to a better, more accurate entry from the lower band, reinforcing the importance of using higher timeframe VWAPs in volatile markets.
   • Although you fought for price on the 1-minute chart and faced two stopouts, you recognized that sticking to the 5-minute VWAP would have provided a more optimal, no-drawdown entry.

4. Awareness of Weekly Bearish Orderblock:

   • Despite the bullish bias, you noted the importance of the weekly bearish orderblock that triggered towards the session's end. You plan to monitor closely how the weekly trend interacts with this key resistance level in the next trading session.

5. Contract Rollover Anomaly:

   • You observed an interesting discrepancy between /MNQU24 and /NQ regarding the quarterly draw on liquidity, suggesting that different contracts are giving you different reads on price action. You plan to track this during future rollovers to better understand which contracts hold more weight.

6. Patience and Decision-Making:

   • You demonstrated patience in waiting for your bullish setup to develop, but you also reflected on the importance of simplifying your entry approach by relying more on the higher timeframe charts, which would have prevented multiple stopouts.

Key Learnings and Adjustments:

• Journaling and Preparation: Continue to prioritize reviewing and refining your system outside of market hours, as this has significantly improved your trading approach.
• Stay Focused on Higher Timeframes: Rely more on the 5-minute chart for entry confirmation instead of fighting for price on the 1-minute, which can lead to unnecessary stopouts.
• Monitor Weekly Bearish Orderblock: Pay close attention to how the weekly bearish orderblock and the new trend shift interact in the next session, as this could signal an important turning point for future trades.
• Track Contract Rollover Discrepancies: Stay vigilant regarding discrepancies in liquidity levels between contracts during rollovers to avoid confusion or misreading price action.

This session highlights your growth as a trader and how detailed analysis, patience, and preparation have led to improved results.

 

 

 

Woke up a bit late, around 10:00AM because my alarm clock didnt go off.

Noticed price action was basically untradable on the open, and luckily I fell asleep yesterday while monitoring price action, because the overnight long theory didnt play out, It played out during todays trading session. 

I traded this FOMC like a true elite trader, and I really feel like im stepping into the next level up in my trading career, and I definitely believe that journaling is part of the reason why. As soon as I decided to take a data backed approach to trading, rather than an executional and high pressure decision based trading, it feels like that has put me into the next level. And a quote from Lance hit me hard, and that is, his workday actually starts when the trading day ends. Its all about what you do when the markets not trading, and how you are fine tuning your trading system, and identifying what works well and what doesnt. He compared his quote to a basketball game, where if a professional, only got hours in when they were in game, but never practiced or fine tuned the small things off of the court, then they would fall short during the game, and thats exactly how trading is. Your simply waiting for your setup.

Those quotes, coupled with the concepts of 'Expected Value Dynamics' and trading the "Right Side of The V" has dramatically changed my trading, Because now, I am waiting for full reactions off of the levels im interested in, and my risk is defined, and my edge is high. 

 

With that being said, I came into this trading session (FOMC interest rate decision) with a bullish outlook, specifically because, we shifted trend on the weekly timeframe, and had untapped liquidity and an unfinished auction to the upside, and also, broke the 4 day bearish orderblock weekly trend. So i seen this setup quietly approaching under the radar, while everyone was bearish for the most part. 

I like how consistent I have been as well for this evaluation, it has taken alot of pressure off of me not having to worry about trailing drawdown, breakeven trades, and letting them just work. I also had my biggest trading day so far on this evaluation, with only 2 micros. Making over $600 on the day. 

When I was in my trade, it was for sure the trade of the day setup at that time, but one thing I have to take note of is how the market closed today, and it closed with a trade of the day setup, favoring bears with a short from the weekly bearish orderblock. This is something that im going to have to monitor closely going into tomorrow. And that is, how I should approach the trading day with the right bias, when the weekly bullish trend shift has occured, at the same time that the weekly bearish orderblock bas been triggered, withoutn tapping into the weekly buyside liquidity to the upside. 

So we have a new weekly high, weekly trend shift, weekly orderblock all around the same vicinity. with the draw on liquidity, shifting way to the upside on the next deviation timeframe, (Monthly) at 20262.25.

Im noticing something extremely interesting, and that is, on the new contract roll over for the nasdaq, its displaying that the quarterly draw on liquidity has been breached, which is the first time im seeing this, because on all of the other contracts, it doesnt display that. Im looking at /NQ now, and it is giving me a completely different read of price action, so this is something we are going to have to get to the bottom of. /MNQU24 (prior contract) is also displaying the same thing, that the quarterly draw on liquidity hasent been breached. So we will have to track this closely by the time the next contract rollover comes around. and see is the newer contracts/or older contracts hold more weight. 

 

Now, when I was analyzing an entry for the day, I noticed that, the 1 day VWAP might not have been the best choice, because I felt that price would go higher, but there were so many support levels below in which price could have bounced off of, that I couldnt gauge what would be the best one, so I simply decided to throw on a longer term VWAP on my 5 minute chart, for double the confirmation, and I am very glad I did, because it gave me a great entry from the lowerband, with a bearish to bullish variation for an upside trade. 

I decided to start fighting for price on the 1 minute chart, as it was trend below the 1 Day VWAP lowerband, because I was anticipating a squeeze, and it was also trading my demand area of interest which was yesterdays manipulation stop hunt area, and bullish line in the sand, 1 minute demand. So I figured that if I fought for price on the 1 minute, I could get a great price for the turn of the 5 minute variation.

Due to this, I was stopped out 2 times, and had I just traded off of the 5 minute chart instead, I could have got a no drawdown entry. Which likely would have been favorable. 

I just have such a hard time not executing on the 1 minute because it provides a very deep edge and risk to reward. Had i traded specifically off of the 5 minute chart, I would have gotten a no drawdown entry, but I also would have gotten filled at 19610, and because I fought for price, I had an average price of 19602 with 2 contracts. 

Bullish Premarket, FOMC Day, Long Flip Trade, long flip trade off opening move, price action trading, uptrend,

Refined Trade Entry Notes

Trade Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Status: CLOSED
• Portfolio(s): APEX PA ACCOUNT 50K
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 31, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Long
• Pattern(s): Bullish Premarket, FOMC Day, Long Flip Trade, Long Flip Trade Off Opening Move, Price Action Trading, Uptrend

Notes

9:02 AM:

• NASDAQ V-shaped recovery of over 450 points from yesterday's drop.
• Yesterday's drop led to a $600 loss.
• Currently hovering at the top of the 1D Week VWAP.
• Uncertain about a trade due to mixed signals across charts.
• Decision to trade only with a confirmed trend and taking it slow.

10:06 AM:

• Took a loss off the open and flipped the trade to long.
• Observing price movement, with VWAP expanding to the upside on the 1D VWAP.
• Top band sitting at 19511.50.
• 30D high to low Fibonacci 38.2% level at 19588, which is the main target for this long.
• Good risk/reward to the upside if the 9:30 AM low on the M5 candle holds for the session.

Reasoning for the Flip Trade:

• Analyzed mistakes from the previous day, particularly the inability to give up bias.
• Noticed that flipping the trade upon initial invalidation on M5 could have allowed riding the trend of the day.
• Adapted to market conditions by flipping the trade.
• Following today's H12 LIS trend, unlike the previous day.
• Despite being at the top of the range, anticipated a squeeze on shorts as longs were affected yesterday.

Chart Patterns:

• M5, M15, and M30 charts all failed off the open but were reclaimed.
• Long add was a repeat of the pattern, with an average price between the first and second long trades.
• Stopped out breakeven by a manipulation move right before FOMC.

Key Takeaways

1. Market Observation:

   • Acknowledge significant market moves, such as the 450-point V-shaped recovery.
   • Be aware of current VWAP positions and significant Fibonacci levels.

2. Trade Adaptation:

   • Analyze and learn from previous trading mistakes.
   • Be willing to flip trades when initial bias is invalidated.
   • Follow the dominant trend (e.g., H12 LIS trend) to align with market conditions.

3. Entry and Exit Criteria:

   • Enter trades based on reclaimed failed patterns on multiple timeframes (M5, M15, M30).
   • Use VWAP bands and Fibonacci levels to determine potential targets and risk/reward scenarios.
   • Maintain flexibility in trading strategy, especially on volatile days like FOMC days.

4. Emotional Management:

   • Avoid being emotionally influenced by previous losses.
   • Focus on the current market conditions and adapt strategies accordingly.

5. Risk Management:

   • Ensure appropriate position sizing.
   • Be prepared to adjust trading strategies and targets based on evolving market conditions.

By following these refined notes and key takeaways, you can enhance your trading strategies and decision-making processes, improving your ability to adapt to changing market conditions and minimize losses.

 

 

 

 

9:02AM. Well, somehow the NASDAQ has managed to V shape over 450 points from yesterdays drop, which actually pisses me off, because yesterdays drop was meaningless, and I got robbed of $600 dollars. But, once again, we are hovering at the top of the 1D Week VWAP, and im really unsure of a trade at this point. Im going to have to take it slow. Im really thinking I wont trade until I have a confirmed trend. And there is mized signals across charts.

10:06AM: I took a loss off of the open and simply flipped the trade, sitting in it right now just watching price. Currently VWAP expaning to the upside on the 1D VWAP. Top band is sitting at 19511.50. And the 30D high to low fibonacci 38.2% is sitting at 19588, which is my main target on this long. Would be very good risk reward to the upside if the 9:30 low off of the M5 candle holds for the session.

I decided to do a flip trade because yesterday when I was analyzing where I went wrong, with the inability to give up my bias, I noticed had I flipped when I was first ivalidated on M5, I could have rode the trend of the day. So im simply just trying to adapt to conditions. I also went against yesterdays H12 LIS trend, today Im going with it. Its an uncomfortable long being im at the complete top of the range, but I feel they are going to suqeeze shorts today, as the fked longs yesterday. 

The M5, M15 & M30 charts all failed off of the open & were reclaimed, so the long add I took was a repeat of that pattern, and my average price was in between my first and second long trades, where I was stopped out breakeven by a manipulation move right before FOMC.