1 Day Moving Average Long, 1 Minute Entry, 2D Bearish Orderblock Reversal, 2D Close above 2D Bearish O, Daily Bearish Orderblock Target, moving average cross, Premarket Low to P, Trade Of The Day , Turtle Soup, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,

I had a chance to briefly review yesterdays trading session before today trading session (Day After) and I noticed that the 1 Day Moving Average was the perfect entry for yesterdays session, and I likely could have avoided the first stopout had I waited for that entry. I will remember this going into todays trading session. Because I had the moving average turned off yesterday, which is pretty ironic because its the first time I have turned it off in a while, due to the fact that it was minimizing my chart and I couldnt see price very well. Guess I should have kept it. 

 

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Trade of the Day Setup: Successfully hit the "Trade of the Day" setup, similar to the previous day’s trade.

2. Premarket Analysis on Multi-day Charts:

   • Noted that the 2-day chart closed above a 2-day bearish order block, suggesting potential bullishness.
   • Contradiction with the 4-day chart, which was still in a downtrend unless yesterday’s high was broken.

3. Supply Area Breach as a Bullish Signal: Drew a 1-minute supply zone from the prior day's high, and when price breached that area in the morning, it indicated potential for higher prices.

4. Choppy Market Open: The 9:30 AM session was choppy, with price fighting in an accumulation zone for longs. The VWAP lower band aligned with the 2-day bearish order block, marking a critical "line in the sand."

5. Morning Losses from FOMO and Oversizing: Experienced FOMO, took oversized positions, and suffered larger-than-necessary losses in the morning session. Despite a 33% win rate, ended the day green.

6. Turtle Soup Setup: The final long trade was based on a Turtle Soup setup after the first stop run for longs. Opted for a 1-minute entry due to large candles on the higher timeframes (5 and 2-minute charts).

7. Held for Larger Move: Decided not to take profit at the VWAP upper band, choosing to hold for a larger move since stops were set at breakeven and no risk was left in the trade. The trade eventually hit the higher target at 19,449, the daily bearish order block.

8. Benefit of Multi-day Chart Intervals: Breaking down the daily chart into 1, 2, 3, and 4-day intervals improved the ability to read price action and trends, especially identifying trend shifts on the 4-day chart.

9. Confluence of 2-day Order Block and VWAP: Recognized the importance of the 2-day close above the bearish order block and the VWAP lower band sitting at the order block, focusing on high-probability, low-risk entries.

10. Evaluation Progress and Prop Firm Strategy: Almost halfway to the profit target for the evaluation account. Enjoying the flexibility of trading without a trailing drawdown, which favors the strategy of holding for larger moves. Believes that trailing drawdowns would have limited the ability to hold through significant pullbacks.

 

 

Today was an interesting trading day. I wound up hitting yet again the trade of the day setup, which looked very similar to yesterdays setup.

Going into todays trading day, when I was doing premarket analysis, I noticed that on the 2 day chart, yesterdays 2 days bar, closed above the 2 day bearish orderblock. With that being said, there was still a contradiction because on the 4 day chart, a brand new bar opened today. And price was technically still in a 4 day chart downtrend, unless price was able to take out yesterdays high.

So what I did, was draw a 1 minute supply area from yesterdays high of day, and when I woke up in the morning, I noticed that the high, and the supply area was breached. So this gave me an indiciation that we would likely see higher prices on the day. 

The 9:30 open was pretty sloppy and choppy, and it was a fight for price, as we were in an accumulation zone for longs. And one of the main things I had noticed, was that the lowerband of the VWAP was sitting directly on the 2 day bearish orderblock. So I knew that that area was going to be the line in the sand essentially. 

And the actual line in the sand on the session, was far far below where price was trading, because the 12 hour chart was actually in the process of creating a 3 bar variation for a 12 hour fair value gap. 

I got stop ran in the morning on the first long, and I had fomo and was also getting greedy for a long entry, so I decided to market at prices I shouldnt have been, and I also oversized by 1 contract on the second try, which resulted in a bigger loss than I should have taken in the morning. 

I ended this session with virtually a 33% win rate, yet I am still green on the day. 

When I entered the final long trade, It was a turtle soup setup, after the first stoploss was ran for longs. And it seemed like the first loss was basically inevitable, because I was taking the trade from a 1 minute chart, due to the fact that the candles were massive on the 5 minute, And even the 2 minute as well. So the 1 minute entry was the best for todays session. 

When I was in the long trade, I decided not to take profit at the VWAP upperband, and hold through a rotation for the bigger move, because I was down on the day, I had no risk left on the trade because I had stops set at breakeven, and I didnt see any reason to take profit yet as I had a higher upside target 

I have also noticed that breaking the daily chart up into 1,2,3,4 day intervals really helps me read price action and trend better.

Just simple noticing the trend shift on the 4 day chart, dramatically helped with my daily bias for the day, and also, taking note of the 2d bearish orderblock, the 2 day close above the orderblock, and the lowerband and 2 day orderblock confluence, to really focus on the highest probability, lowest risk entry on the day. And with that being said, we are almost at half the desired profit target to be hit on this evaluation account, and I am really loving the fact that I dont have to trade this prop firm with a trailing drawdown. I believe it favors my strategy more. As i am a daytrader. And I highly believe that if I was trading an apex evaluation with a trailing drawdown, I wouldnt have been able to to hold for the larger move on the day because of how massive the pullback was from the first rotation. 

It hit my profit target as planned at 19449 which was the daily bearish orderblock. And I figured it was a very high chance we would get there, because the 2 day hold, holds more weight than a 1 day supply area. 

1D VWAP Lowerband Target, 1st Moving Average Failure, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Short, 2nd Moving Average Failure, Bearish Line In The Sand Reversal, Break & Retest of Prior Day Trend Reversal, Daily Chart Reversal, H12 Bearish FVG Liquidity Sweep, H12 Bearish FVG Squeeze, H12 Bearish Orderblock (Short), H6 Bearish Orderblock Short, Line In The Sand (Between 1st & 2nd Moving Averages(, M1 BL/BR Variation Short Entry (, M1 Entry (Close Below 2nd Moving Average, M5 BL/BR Variation Short Entry , Market Reversal, Market Trend Reversal (Break & Retest, Powell, Prior Day Reversal, Turtle Soup,

For tomorrow's trading session, focus on prioritizing 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks for short trades. Ensure that your short setups are well-supported by these orderblocks, rather than relying solely on moving averages. Additionally, validate your short entries with a data-backed playbook to enhance confidence in your strategy. Keep an eye on the overall market trend, especially on higher time frames, to avoid taking trades that conflict with the broader bullish momentum.

 

 

(NOTES) ALSO, we noticed today that the WK SSL area provided a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week LOW level. And this has to be noted in the future when doing technical analysis. Rule - " If a specific timeframe high or low, does not align with that specific candles ACTUAL printed high or low, than that can be an imbalance in price that can be located for a liquidity sweep"

Key Takeaway:

• Liquidity Sweep Insight: The observation that a Weekly Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) area triggered a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week Low highlights a crucial rule for future technical analysis. If a specific timeframe's high or low does not match the actual printed high or low of that candle, it may indicate a price imbalance that could lead to a liquidity sweep. This insight should be incorporated into your analysis to better anticipate potential liquidity movements.

 

 

 

 

Orderblocks and Variations:

1. New Rule on Orderblocks:
   • The 3-bar orderblock pattern, where the 2nd bar wicks above the prior bar and the 3rd bar closes above or below a variation level, is now identified as a false signal if the 2nd bar does not show rapid displacement away from the prior bar.
   • The wick rejection on the 2nd bar indicates continued weakness and reduces the probability of the setup's success.
   • High-probability variations require the 2nd bar to move away with strong displacement.

Market Context and Trend Analysis:

2. Whipsaw Action and Daily Bias Indecision:
   • Daily reversals or indecision in daily bias suggest potential whipsaw action.
   • The 12-hour Line In The Sand (LIS) acts as a VWAP-like area, serving as a central point for larger deviation moves, particularly when the daily trend is unclear or conflicting with weekly/monthly levels.
   • This central role of the 12-hour LIS explains why moving averages fail, as they reflect the larger macro range based on weekly levels.

Trade Review and Insights:

3. Swing Trade and 12-Hour Chart Analysis:
   • The prior swing trade was based on a weekly bearish sell-side liquidity and a bearish variation that failed to displace lower, leading to an anticipated drop that did not occur.
   • The position remained at breakeven, with the recognition that the next 12-hour draw on liquidity might target the stop-loss before presenting a new long opportunity.
   • The current long position is a Turtle Soup entry, suggesting the 12-hour draw on liquidity manipulated prior longs out of their positions.

Important Trading Rule:

4. 12-Hour and Daily Trend Interaction:
   • When the market is trending on the daily chart, 12-hour highs/lows in the direction of the daily trend will be in play, with the 12-hour LIS acting as support/resistance.
   • In contrast, during daily reversals, daily bias indecision, or when interacting with larger timeframe levels (weekly/monthly), the 12-hour LIS will act as a median point and draw on liquidity within a larger macro range on the weekly chart.
   • In such cases, the 12-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) is likely to act as an inverse FVG rather than a continuation FVG.

Documentation and Future Application:

5. Documentation of Larger Timeframe Levels:
   • This observation is crucial for understanding and documenting price action at larger levels, particularly on the weekly chart, where the 12-hour FVG in macro ranges can often act inversely to what is typically expected.

These insights will help refine your trading approach, especially in recognizing and reacting to signals on larger timeframes and understanding the interaction between different timeframes during market indecision or trend reversals.

 

 

We have a new Rule on Orderblocks/Variations & 12 hour chart analysis on weekly levels.

We have consistenly seen 3 bar orderblocks, where the 2nd bar creates a wick above the prior bar, with the 3rd bar closing above or below a varation level.

We now have data backed proof to suggest that this is a false signal, signaling that the wick rejection displays continued weakness, and less probability of the setup working. In order for a variation to hold its high probability success, the 2nd bar should move rapidly away from the prior bar with displacement. 

we have observed that when there are daily reversals, or daily indecision trading actions, and inability to decipher daily bias, its an indication of whipsaw action, and that the H12 LIS will act as a VWAP area and center point for larger deviation moves (weekly&monthly levels), and that it likely why the LIS is in the center of both moving averages, and there is a break of daily trend. And the reason why the moving averages are failing and acting as a centerpoint for a much larger macro rangem based off of weekly levels.

Now yesterday when I entered my swing trade, it was based off of a weely bearish sell side liquidity & bearish variation failure to displace lower. I anticipated that the sell side liquidity would provide a much larger drop. But it didnt. 

My position stayed break even for the remainder of the trading session, and I also noticed that the prior 12 hour bar closed bearish, and I noticed that the next 12 hour draw on liquidity would likely target my stoploss on the long swing trade, take me out, and present another potential opportunity to enter long. 

So the long that I am currently in is a Turtle Soup long entry based off of my prior stoploss, which I think was manipulated on the 12 hour draw on liquidity as a last attempt to knock prior longs out of position. 

If this trade works out, its important to note a very important trading rule that I could be noticing, and that is When the market is trending on the daily, the 12 hour highs or lows, in the direction of the daily trend will be in play, and the line in the sand will act as a support or resistance in that continued direction. BUT, when we are trading against daily reversals, daily bias indecision AND larger timeframe levels such as the weekly or monthly ETC, than the daily chart trend, and 12 hour line in the sand will act as a MEDIAN point and draw on liquidity in a larger macro range on the weekly chart, especially if the 12 hour chart has an FVG. From what i currently have in the price action database, is that its likely that the 12 hour FVG in these larger timeframe ranges on the weekly and monthly, will usually act as an inverse fair value gap (FVG) rather than a continuation FVG. This is very important to document, as we have had troubles reading larger levels on the weekly in the past. And now we finally can journal the price action behind this type of action. 

 

ALSO, we noticed today that the WK SSL area provided a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week LOW level.

And this has to be noted in the future when doing technical analysis.

Rule - " If a specific timeframe high or low, does not align with that specific candles ACTUAL printed high or low, than that can be an imbalance in price that can be located for a liquidity sweep"

 

 

Here are the key takeaways from your trading session notes:

1. Trade Entry Strategy:

• Took a short position at 9:26 AM based on the first 1-minute close below the 2nd DV MA, aiming to capitalize on a bearish trend reversal (reverse V trade).
• Noted the breach of the Bearish Line In The Sand at 6:41 AM but initially assumed the bearish fair value gap on the 12-hour chart could provide a short opportunity.

1. Market Context and Trend Analysis:

• The trend appeared bearish due to the 2nd DV MA being below the 1st DV MA.
• Despite the bearish indicators, the 12-hour Line In The Sand breach suggested potential liquidity sweep and a continuation of the overall bullish trend observed on the weekly chart.

1. Technical Indicators and Moving Averages:

• Recognized that the weekly chart was still showing higher highs and lows, indicating a bullish overall wave.
• Lacked a data-backed playbook for short trades based on moving averages, assuming short trades would respect the same rules as long trades was not accurate.

1. Orderblock Analysis:

• Noted that recent short trades were more aligned with the 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks, which were defending against bullish liquidity.
• The confluence of the 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks provided a zero drawdown entry with a strong short-side trade opportunity.

1. Entry and Exit Points:

• The best entry during the session was a 1-minute bullish-to-bearish variation short entry following a 6-hour bearish orderblock rejection from the previous day.
• The 1-minute chart was manipulated by the 12-hour bearish orderblock, but the 6-hour bearish orderblock was slightly more advantageous.

1. Trade Outcome and Lessons Learned:

• The 1-minute bullish-to-bearish variation entry provided minimal drawdown and a strong short trade setup, with the profit target aligning with a confluence level between the premarket open print and 1-day VWAP lower band.
• Future short-side trades should focus on 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks and potentially disregard moving averages if they are not aligning with short trade setups.

Summary: For future trading sessions, prioritize 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks for short trades over moving averages. Validate short setups with a data-backed playbook and consider overall market trends and higher time frame charts to avoid conflicts with broader trends.

 

 

 

I took a short position at 9:26 AM, on the first 1 Minute close below the 2nd DV MA, to play the right side of the reverse V trade, and go with the predominant trend which appeared to be a short biased session, solely because the 2nd DV MA was stacked below the 1st DV MA. One thing I did notice was the breach of the Bearish Line In The Sand at around 6:41 AM, but at this point I though that the bearish fair value gap created on the 12 hour chart, could have potentially provided a short side trade right back down because at this point, the moving averages were not yet claimed. 

 

What I should have noted at this point, was that, although the trend appeared to be on my side, the breach of the 12 Hour Line In The Sand, would have likely swept the liquidity on the 12 hour fair value gap, because although the prior day signaled a daily reversal, the weekly chart, which is a full standard deviation above the daily chart, was still making higher highs and higher lows, so the overall wave was still bullish, and in order to have played against the weekly chart, we would have needed a totally brand new weekly candle to play the bullish to bearish variation against. 

 

I also didnt have a data backed playbook for any moving average short trades. I figured that because the market was heavily respecting the long side moving average trades, that it would likely respect the short side trades, but this was not accurate. 

 

As it stands, the short side trades for the past 2 trading sessions, have been heavily respecting the 12 hour and 6 hour bearish orderblocks. The first short side trade opportunity, was presented from a 12 hour and 6 hour confluence bearish orderblock, which was defending the weekly draw on liquidity from bulls, as a short side stoploss. 

 

The Market Reversal off of this confluence orderblock, was a 2 hour chart bullish to bearish variation entry, from a zero drawdown upojn entry perspective. 

 

And this trading sessions best entry, was a bullish to bearish variation short entry on the 1 minute chart, coming from a 6 hour bearish orderblock rejection from the prior day. 

The 1 minute chart was manipulated and stop hunted from the 12 hour bearish orderblock reaction. So it appears currently, that the H6 bearish orderblock, is slightly advantageous to the 12 hour at the moment. the confluence 12 hour and 6 hour orderblock from the prior day, provided a zero drawdown entry on the first 1 minute close below the confluence level. 

 

this trading session, the 1 minute bullish to bearish variation entry provided minimal drawdown, and a trade of the day setup opportunity for a short side trade. At our desired profit target, which was a confluence level target between the premarket open print and 1 DAY VWAP Lowerband 

 

So for now, we can derive bias off of the moving averages, but if we are going to play a short side setup, we will disregard the moving averages, and focus on the 12 hour and 6 hour bearish orderblocks that are presented for any short side trade opportunities.

CPI, Daily FVG, H12 Bearish Engulfing, H12 Bullish LIS, Turtle Soup, Upperband Short, Upperband to Lowerband Short,

Here are the key takeaways from your journaling session, along with a key intention for your next trading day:

 

Regularly update and monitor Fibonacci retracement levels on your charts, incorporating them with other technical indicators and confirmation signals to enhance your trading strategy.

 

Key Takeaways:

1. Market Manipulation Perception: You felt that the market was heavily manipulated today, leading to an unexpected trade outcome. It's crucial to consider this perception and how it might affect your trading strategy and decisions.

2. Gameplan Adherence: You followed your gameplan closely but acknowledged areas for improvement, such as taking some risk off the table and adjusting your trailing stop loss.

3. Volume and Price Action Analysis:

   • Lack of volume expansion following the 8:30 data release was noted.
   • The daily chart structure is still bullish, but there's uncertainty due to the bearish engulfing candle on the 12-hour chart.

4. Risk Management:

   • You identified that taking some profit at key levels (e.g., Daily Upperband) could have reduced downside risk.
   • Raising your stop loss to below the demand area created off your long entry could have helped in managing risk better.

5. Trade Adjustment and Entry Timing:

   • Your initial long entry was based on multiple confirmations, but the price action deviated from your expectations.
   • You recognized the missed opportunity to short at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband, although you didn't expect such a significant retracement.

6. Re-evaluation of Strategies:

   • You are considering implementing a rule to align your trading with the prevailing moving average bias and VWAP bands.
   • There is an intention to develop a Fair Value Gap (FVG) strategy to avoid situations where market manipulation and stops affect your trades.

7. Swing Trade Consideration:

   • You decided to hold the trade as a swing trade despite its initial drawdown, and you are considering implementing a new trading rule based on your experience.

Key Intention for the Next Trading Day:

Focus on Adapting to Market Conditions and Risk Management:

Given today's experiences, your key intention should be to adapt your trading approach to better manage risk and respond to market conditions. This involves:

1. Implementing Adaptive Risk Management:

   • Set tighter stop losses and consider scaling out of positions at key levels to mitigate potential losses.
   • Monitor volume and price action closely to adjust your stop losses dynamically based on market behavior.

2. Aligning with the Trend:

   • Follow your new rule regarding trading in alignment with the moving average bias and VWAP bands. Ensure your trades correspond with the prevailing trend to enhance the probability of success.

3. Developing and Testing New Strategies:

   • Begin working on and backtesting your FVG strategy. Having a well-defined plan for handling market manipulation and price reversals will improve your adaptability.

4. Maintaining Flexibility:

   • Stay flexible and open to adjusting your strategy as market conditions evolve. Be prepared to pivot if the market shows signs of manipulation or if your initial analysis proves incorrect.

By focusing on these areas, you can enhance your risk management, adapt to market conditions more effectively, and improve the consistency of your trading outcomes.

 

 

 

 

8:36. Entered long.

10:37AM. Absolutely shocked that my trade didnt go in my favor today. This market feels so immensely manipulated. But I followed my gameplan to the T. Theres a couple things I could have done better, such as taking some risk off of the table by covering into the Daily 1 minute Upperband. I did find it a bit strange that there wasnt volume expansion to the upside off of the 8:30 data release. And I also could have raised my trailing stoploss below the M1 demand area that was created off of my long price. 

The 12 hour chart experienced a bearish engulfing candle, which is primarily the main timeframe I trade. So theres really not much I could have done analyzing this at the moment. Also, the daily chart structure is still bullish, and could potentially be creating a FVG bottom wick on the current daily candle. But theres really no telling how much lower this can go. I think the only thing I can do is wait for 1PM orderflow, which would be the next 12 hour open candle. 

This was a very interesting trading day. Im still currently in the position because I believe it was likely a swing trade entry. So i decided to hold and the trade is not yet closed. The morning felt manipulated, it turtle souped the 8:30 data lows, which I was given a long signal off of because it wicked the Moving average and the LIS. So there was multiple confirmations to take a long trade. 

I figured because yesterdays journaling session suggested that because I went against the predominanent trend, attempted to trade the Upperband of the 5D 5M Month VWAP, I should make an adjustment and simplify my trading system by only switching bias when I have been in every way shape and form invalidated. Today, when the market went against my position, It was very unfortunate as I felt It was the best position I could get at that moment. But I guess this is just trading, price can go against you apparently at any moment in time regardless of how many checks you have in your favor. 

So there was a trade presented off of the 1D 1Minute VWAP off of the upperband, for an upperband to lowerband short opportunity. This is actually what I expected to happen, because not only was a friend on mine preparing to trade market open shorts, but also because I seen the price action developing around the upperband, and noticed there was a short opportunity present. I just thought it would likely be a fakeout, and if not a fakeout, I didnt imagine price would retrace as much as it did.

One thing I could have done to avoid this was, A. Take off some profit at the 1D upperband to lower my downside risk, because the 1d 1M VWAP was not exanding to the upside, or signaling any trend continuation at that time. B. I could have raised my stoploss to the 1 minute demand area created off of the long entry signal I took from the moving average & LIS. I labelled it 'Could Have Cut Loss Here'. 

I didnt think that a long opportunity would be presented from the open back at the moving average a second time. Because I figured those who traded the data reaction would be the best positioned, or 'early bird gets the worm' type scenario. And i figured that morning shorts would get squeezed out again like the day prior & journaling session suggested. 

But this didnt happen, the stops were ran at the CPI data lows, the daily fair value gap was still trying to find a bid on the lower wick, and the market was way below an area where long confirmation could yet again be established. All I did was re enter at the cross of the moving average, which still got me an extension entry on the lower wick of the daily and 12 hour candle. 

The position went immediately in the money and experienced almost no drawdown, but my price targets were way higher, which is the reason I am still holding the trade as a swing trade. And its the first swing trade I have yet to backtest. 

If it goes in my favor, I will highly consider implementing a new trading rule, which suggests that I can only trade the VWAP band on the 1D 1M chart which corresponds with the prevailing moving average bias. 

For example. If the moving average aligns from the VWAP and lowerband, I will think longs. If the moving average aligns with the VWAP and upperband, I will think short, in order to stay with 'the trend is your friend' theory. 

Other than that, I think the next think I will have to do it create a FVG strategy that I can implement in the future for the daily chart so that I can avoid being turtle souped and stop ran trying to find a bid on the 3rd candle sequence. Because todays lows were heavily manipulated, and the market topped in the middle of nowhere. I couldnt find any orderblocks or levels on the chart to explain why the market reversed so heavily from where it was. The only indication was the upperband on the 1D 1M VWAP. These are all things I will have to implement in my trading strategy in the future. 

H2 ODB Long, M15 Entry, M15 Entry Win, Overnight Session, Playbook , Trade Of The Day , Turtle Soup,

Key Takeaways

1. Timeframe Correlation: Observations indicate a strong correlation between the 15-minute (M15) entries and 2-hour (H2) orderblock (ODB) management. This correlation suggests that the M15 chart’s reaction to the H2 ODB is a crucial factor in identifying high-probability trades.

2. Orderblock Validity: When an orderblock is invalidated on a timeframe, it's essential to monitor higher timeframes for potential setups. This is due to the possibility that the trade setup might be occurring on a higher timeframe despite a shorter timeframe's signal.

3. Timeframe Adjustments: If any timeframe closes above or below a key orderblock level, the trade setup should be reassessed on the next higher timeframe. For instance, a close below an orderblock on M2, M5, and M15 charts might still be valid if the 15-minute chart shows a wick hold.

4. Secondary Trade Opportunities: The secondary setup observed with the 1-hour wick hold of the 4-hour ODB suggests that multiple timeframe correlations can offer high-risk reward opportunities.

5. Data Collection: Gathering data on how different timeframes correlate with each other is crucial. The correlation between M15 entries and H2 trends should be tracked, as it often results in high-probability trades.

6. Market Context: The context of market liquidity and orderblock validity can change based on broader market trends and news events. Adjusting trade decisions based on new data or shifts in market sentiment is essential.

Lessons Learned

1. Importance of Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Monitoring multiple timeframes is vital. A setup might appear invalid on lower timeframes but could still be valid on higher timeframes.

2. Dynamic Orderblock Management: Orderblocks should not be considered completely invalid if they are breached on lower timeframes. Higher timeframes may still offer valid setups.

3. Adaptability: Trade strategies should be adaptable to changing market conditions and data releases. Staying flexible with your approach can improve the accuracy of your entries.

4. Liquidity and Timeframes: Higher timeframes' liquidity levels should be compared with lower timeframes. In some cases, lower timeframes might have liquidity levels that are above those of higher timeframes.

Things Done Right

1. Effective Use of Higher Timeframes: Using the H2 ODB and observing its interaction with the M15 chart provided a successful entry strategy.

2. Recognizing Data Impact: Noting the impact of news releases and adjusting the trading thesis accordingly led to recognizing the bullish sentiment during the 9:30 session.

3. Entry Timing: The entry based on the M5 chart's reaction after the data drop and subsequent movement was accurate, confirming the trade setup.

Things Done Wrong

1. Inconsistent Timeframe Monitoring: Initially, not consistently monitoring higher timeframes might have caused missed opportunities or incorrect trade assessments.

2. Overlooking Liquidity Levels: The observation about the M5 ODB being above higher timeframe levels was not initially incorporated into the trading strategy, possibly leading to confusion about orderblock validity.

New Rules Learned

1. Canceling Orderblocks: If a timeframe closes above or below a key orderblock level, cancel the orderblock for that timeframe and switch to the next higher timeframe for reassessment.

2. Data and Market Sentiment: Adjust trading decisions based on new data and market sentiment. If a significant market move occurs, reassess the previous trade thesis.

3. Timeframe Validity: If an orderblock is invalidated on lower timeframes, validate it on higher timeframes before discarding it entirely.

4. Entry Confirmation: Always look for confirmation from the timeframe you are trading on, but also consider the interaction with higher timeframes for confirmation.

Key Intention

To enhance trading accuracy, the intention is to focus on:

• Gathering Data: Systematically collect data on timeframe correlations, especially between M15 entries and H2 trends.
• Adaptive Strategy: Develop a more flexible strategy that accounts for multiple timeframe interactions and market context shifts.
• Orderblock Management: Refine the process for determining when an orderblock is invalidated and ensure thorough monitoring across all relevant timeframes.

Key Takeaway: The session appeared bullish because no supply zones were identified near the Line In The Sand (LIS) across multiple timeframes. Specifically, while the M1 order block entry was above the LIS and the M5 supply zone was utilized, higher timeframes (M15, M30, H1, H2, H4, H6, H12) lacked any significant supply areas near the LIS. This absence of supply zones suggested a high probability of the LIS being breached, indicating a potential reversal in the intraday trend bias.

 

 

 

 

This is a 'Trade Of The Day' setup for August 8th trading day. One of them is the A+ Long setup from the overnight session, and the next is the in session (9:30) trade setup which I traded.

From doing this writeup, I am noticing a couple key takeaways from the trade of the day setup. And that is a different way to interpret this orderblocks.

For one, there has most certainly been a correlation between the M15 entry and the H2 bar for management correlations. Not only from a trend shift and price action entry perspective. but now I am also noticing it here on this screenshot and trading overview. And the perfect entry for the price action reaction off of the H2 ODB (Orderblock) was a 15 minute chart reaction. This is a correlation in this current market context that has been happening over and over again.

Another thing that I am noticing about these orderblocks, is that when I have a specific hard level for an orderblock. I must immediately cancel any timeframe bar that closes below or above my key orderblock level. (If it closes above the level for shorts) (if it closes below the level for longs). The moment that any of those timeframes close below or above my orderblock, I must make a shift to the next highest timeframe and continuously monitor the reaction, because the setup could be taking place on a higher timeframe, and because I havent monitored this in the past, I could likely be missing other timeframe entry models.

(For Example) I usually trade the 2 minute, and 5 minute chart for my entries. But this specific trade setup, took place on the 15 minute chart, and I usually dont monitor for 15 minute entries (only sometimes). But the 2 minute chart closed below this specific H2 orderblock, as well as the 5 minute, as well as the 1 minute etc. But when analyzing the 15 minute chart, the bar wicked off of the H2 orderblock (signaling a hold), turtle souped the prior day low, had a bearish to bullish variation entry model above the prior bar highs, created a slight 15 minute fair value gap, and experienced virtually zero drawdown upon entry, stops at the premarket low (H2 Orderblock & Pre Market Low) for a continuation trend higher throughout the overnight session, into the 9:30 trading session, until it eventually engulfed the entire prior days price action. This specific entry provided massive risk to reward opportunity, all because of the next standard higher timeframe chart signaled a wick hold, when the shorter timeframes suggested a break and close below the level. When we get multiple contributing factors to a high probability trading entry with multiple confluences, our chances of success become greater, as well as our expected value on the trade.

There was also a secondary trade entry opportunity off of the 1 hour wick hold of the 4 hour ODB, as all timeframes up to the 30 minute chart closed below the H4 ODB key level. So between the M15 hold of the H2 ODB, and the H1 hold of the H4 ODB, I am noticing a correlation for a timeframe entry, with a factor of around 4-8 lower for a high risk reward entry. 

I will make in a key intention to focus on gathering data for all of the timeframes and how they correlate with eachother. Because again, I am noticing a very high correlation between the 15 minute chart entry models and the 2 hour chart trends. Usually, from what I have noticed, when the first 15 minute chart entry is presented, it usually provides for 1 trading decision (1 trade on the day) and when managed with the 2 hour chart, the trend usually stays intact for the duration of the trading day, without any of the prior 2 hour bar lows being breached. Now, im sure that this is subject to change as market contexts change, so I think it will also be smart to start gathering the data on price action entry model timeframes in play, and trend timeframes in play for trade management once entered. 

The reason I only marked the H4 and H2 orderblocks is because the H12 and H6 orderblocks were already (USED), meaning their liquidity has already been tapped into. 

Also, when analyzing this chart, I am also aware that from the major market bottom at 17346, there are still multiple timeframes such as H1, M30, M15 & M1 that have not been tapped into. But there is one timeframe that has been used, which is the M5 ODB. This is quite an interesting observation, because the M5 liquidty and timeframe is ABOVE the higher timeframe untapped liquidity such as the H1/M30 and M15 timeframe charts. Usually, when looking for a long entry off of a demand orderblock rather than supply, the lower the timeframe you go, the lower the price of the orderblock should be, because the shorter timeframe suggests a higher risk to reward entry model, yet in this case, the M5 ODB was above the higher timeframes, and the liquidity below the M5 chart was never even tested. (I need to make a note of this observation to see if this is a recurring theme with orderblock setups) (or have chatgpt make it a rule). I am still unsure fully of the timeframe correlations between the lower timeframes, and other notes and journaling sessions in the past have suggested that I should just wait for the same timeframe correlations for entry. (For example) If I am approaching an M15 orderblock, to wait for an M15 price action reaction off of this orderblock would usually suggest confirmation for an entry. But I am going to have to backtest that data vs the data that suggests that just because an orderblock is closed through on shorter timeframes, does not necessarily mean that the orderblock level is invalid, it may simply suggest that the setup is taking place on a higher timeframe. I must figure this out to know the higher probability entry model. 

I also have to define when an orderblock is completely canceled, and It could be that if any timeframe such as the same timeframe or higher closes above or below a key orderblock, than that orderblock is cancelled. 

I noted an example of a bearish H2 orderblock on the same chart that wasnt tapped into when the market was squeezing higher, and the price action reaction is on the M15 timeframe, and it clearly fails. Mutiple times. This would have given many short signals had we taken the exact same approach, so clearly, this entry model only works under specific market contexts. And by the time it reached this bearish H2 orderblock setup, the line in the sand was already breached on the H12 chart at the 18298 level, which suggests that the daily trend for the day was clearly UP. And the draw on liquidity was targeting the prior day high from the trend shift, because it was the next H12 and daily draw on liquidity higher, therefor invalidating this orderblock setup, and suggesting that all of the levels would be blown through. 

 

Whats most difficult about catching the H2 orderblock setup from the overnight session, was because at this point, the draw on liquidity appeared lower. We had displacement short from the 5D 5M MONTH VWAP, suggesting the next target had a draw on liquidity lower, and the line in the sand was not yet breached, suggesting a move lower. Im actually not sure I would have been able to catch this trade up, because it goes against all of the things I just listed for the bearish H2 orderblock. Whos to say that that trade shouldnt have worked for bears, when it worked for bulls prior? Very difficult analysis overall. 

Another indication that the session would likely be bullish, is because when I tried to find a supply areas around the Line In The Sand, I was unable to find any on any timeframes. The M1 orderblock entry provided, was above the LIS. The M5 supply was used. And the M15/ M30/H1/H2/H4/H6 and H12, did NOT have any supply areas to derive from that Line In The Sand, this acted as a clear indication that the Line In The Sand would likely be breached, and intraday trend bias would flip. 

 

(THE 9:30 TRADING SESSION)

During the session that I traded, there were multiple data drops. An 8:30AM drop, a 10AM drop, and a 10:30AM drop. From the moment the jobs report came out, there was a massive rally to the upside, and I had marked the open print from the moment that data was released. Suggesting that, if that low was never breached, then there was likely no reason I should take a short trade, because there was likely a confirmed market sentiment shift towards the upside, rather than the downside. 

I think thats a noteworthy point because, during this trading session, the macro draw on liquidity was still suggesting lower prices, and I figured they would be reached in the overnight, but again, there was a bid caught, that turtle souped the prior day low, and held which was what we discussed earlier. But I remember thinking to myself before I went to sleep, that the draw on liquidity appeared to be lower, and that if the market did happen to catch a bid, I should likely reverse my thesis from bearish to bullish in the morning, because I didnt see any reason why that draw on liquidity shouldnt have been reached. So between the overnight bid hold, and the release of the premarket data that spiked up, and was never retested or breached, the long side was clearly the play.

I saw a setup on the 5 minute chart from the 9:30 open, that closed below the 21 ema, and immediately closed back above on the next 5 minute candle, I had a strong gut feeling that was the entry long of the day, and what do you know? thats exactly what it was. The bearish to bullish variation on the M5 chart, stops at the LOD, never breaching the data drop. At this point, from the start of the 9:30 open, the H6, H4, H2 & H1 trends were all trending higher, and as clearly stated in my journal in prior journaling sessions, if the H6 trend reverses against the H12 LIS (Line in the sand) then there is a high possibility that there will be a reversal on the daily candle, and the daily bias and macro trend. The line in the sand also provided a pretty solid long entry opportunity, even as the trend higher was on the overextended side. 

 

 

 

 

Bearish Premarket, Bottom VWAP Long, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Low Hold, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation PML, Support Turned Resistance Fakeout, Turtle Soup, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

What You Did Well

1. Line in the Sand Identification: Successfully identified the critical price level, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance.'
2. Adapting to Market Conditions: After being stopped out, you were able to pivot and take a trade in the opposite direction, showing flexibility.
3. Stop Loss Management: Properly placed and adhered to stop losses, maintaining discipline in risk management.
4. Recognizing Trade Signals: Understanding the importance of the initial trend shift (A side setup) and how subsequent retests (B, C, etc.) weaken the setup.

Areas for Improvement

1. Morning Routine: Waking up past your alarm again is a recurring issue. This needs to be addressed to ensure you're prepared for the trading day.
2. Entry Quality: Took low probability trades away from desired entry points, which led to unnecessary losses.
3. Position Sizing: Took on too heavy of a contract size, going against your position size calculator recommendations.
4. Trade Execution: Placing a limit order short against session open volume instead of using a buy stop to flip the trade thesis was a mistake.
5. Trade Management: Covered the trade too early, missing out on potential profits. Could have managed the trade better by taking off partial positions and leaving runners.
6. Data Awareness: Not marking data drops on candles led to misinterpretations of market movements.

Key Takeaways

1. Default Timeframe Execution: The distinction between H4, H6, and H12 trends shows the need for a clear execution model. Default timeframes seem to offer better clarity for entries.
2. Trend Confirmation: The initial trend break (A setup) is stronger, and retests (B, C, etc.) become progressively weaker. This insight should guide your trade selections.
3. Data Marking: Marking data drops on candles is crucial to understand market reactions and avoid misinterpreting moves.

Action Plan

1. Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:

   • Improve your alarm setup, possibly using multiple alarms or a more disruptive alarm system to ensure you wake up on time.
   • Ensure you're getting adequate rest to avoid oversleeping.

2. Refine Entry Strategy:

   • Stick to high probability entries near desired levels.
   • Use buy/sell stops to enter trades rather than limit orders against session volume.

3. Position Sizing Discipline:

   • Strictly adhere to the position size calculator to avoid taking on excessive risk.
   • If a trade requires a heavier size, ensure it's justified by a higher probability setup.

4. Data Awareness:

   • Mark data release times on your charts to anticipate potential market reactions.
   • Adjust your strategy based on these data points to avoid getting caught in unexpected moves.

Example Day Plan

1. Morning Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release, preferably 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform your premarket analysis, marking key data release times on your charts.

2. Market Analysis:

   • Identify the prevailing trend using H4 and H6 for precise entries, while using H12 for overall market context.
   • Focus on A side setups for higher probability trades.

3. Trading Session:

   • Execute trades based on high probability entries near desired levels, using buy/sell stops.
   • Adhere to position size limits and manage trades by taking partial profits and leaving runners.

By addressing these areas for improvement and refining your strategy based on these insights, you'll enhance your trading performance and maintain discipline. Keep up the diligent journaling and continuous refinement of your approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I ended up breakeven on the day with 3 loser and 1 winner. I did many things wrong today.

(THINGS DONE WRONG)

1. Waking up past my alarm again. Unnaceptable

2. Taking 2 low probability first trades that were away from my desired entry. 

3. Taking too heavy of contract size according to my position size calculator

4. Putting a limit order short at the potential support turned resistance against session open volume, when could have placed a buy stop and flipped my trade thesis

5. Covering the trade far too early, just to break even on the day. I could have taken off 2 contracts of the 3 I had, and left 1 runner.

6. Taking 2 irrelevant trades.

7. Not marking the DATA drops on candles.

 

TELLS that trade would flip

- According to Lance B, the A side of each trade setup is upon the inital trend shift, with each retest become less and less strong of a setup. SO, the initial trend break would be considered the 'A' setup, the break and retest would be considered the 'B' setup, and any retests after that would become C/D etc.

- Upon this initial bearish trend shift on the H4 and H6 charts, The H12, Daily, Weekly ETC still had bullish trending higher lows and higher higher on their candles, my thought process was that, because the H4 and H6 candles shifted bearish, there would be a chance that we can trade into the prior 12 hour low as that would be the bearish draw on liquidity from the H6 bearish trend shift. 

- ALSO, I had made the destinction that it would likely have been smarter to implement a 'Default Timeframe' execution model, which means that the H4 trend shift should have provided a daily low draw on liquidity for bears, but because the prior H12 low was never retested for a bearish draw on liquidity, that means that it was a significant contributing factor for todays bullish continuation to the upside. The best thing to do will be to track data on this, and adjust as we go along, because although yesterday the H12 trend happened later in the session, with lower R/R return from the point of entry, it still ended up higher than where the initial entry trigger suggest, closing higher than the point of entry on the day. SO, while it may not provide the best R/R potential from the point of confirmation, it still may insist on a higher probability in terms of directional bias. 

This H4 low break and trap also took place yesterday (July 2nd 2024) and had the exact same setup, which is most regarded as the 'Turtle Soup' Setup or a 'Potential Support Turned Resistance', The only difference was that yesterday was an H12 potential bearish trend shift, and that meant it could have swept the prior daily low as a liquidity draw. 

Its also very clear that upon the 9:30 session open, the DATA released at 8:15 & 8:30 had been immediately reversed and bought up, so I think it will be beneficial to mark out these data drops on the candle OPEN in the future

(THINGS I DID RIGHT)

- Properly identifying where the 'line in the sand' was OTD, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance'

- Cutting the limit order I had short at the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance' at the correct stoploss of the H6 candle high at that time. 

- Taking a trade in the other direction from which I was initially stopped out of

- Placing the correct stoploss on the trade at the 'Line in the sand' OTD on the 2nd trade and sticking to it.

 

BOTTOM LINE, that line in the sand was the most likely price to be tested upon session open BECAUSE, it would have been the best area for shorts to stab at the trade for a continuation through the lows, and confirmation if broken and held above the the longs.

SO IN THE FUTURE, 'Define the A SIDE SETUP, for the LINE IN THE SAND, on each days trading session

If we took the correct play on todays trading session, we could have profited almost $300 and avoided 2 pointless losses.

 

 

Turtle Soup,

BPR, Turtle Soup,

Price traded into a 60m premium FVG & took out buy stops for a turtle soup short. Target low hanging objective first level of liquidity in a discount.