Market Expectation: Response to economic data releases (10 AM, 8:30 AM) and market reaction to consumer sentiment and personal income/outlays data.
Trade Plan: Short at the VWAP Upperband with expectation of continuation downward post-data releases.
10:06 AM:
Two losses on trap longs. VWAP action was unproductive.
10:20 AM:
Contemplated M15 entry but decided against it due to poor R/R.
Preference for extremity trades at VWAP bands.
10:49 AM:
Shorted at the area signaled long by the M15 chart.
Marketed short, breakeven OTD.
11:40 AM:
Boring session, stuck in a tight range.
Down $56, aiming to get green OTD.
12:43 PM:
Frustrated by false signals and missed opportunities.
Could have been profitable if long at LOD liquidity sweep.
1:38 PM:
Passed evaluation despite multiple chop outs OTD.
Noted necessity for deep journaling to avoid future stop outs.
Recognized over-risking, but trading with weekly profits.
Key Points:
Right:
Accurate identification of bearish signals and alignment with economic data.
Entry aligned with multiple timeframe confirmation (H12, M15, M30).
Recognized importance of journaling and addressing chop outs.
Wrong:
Multiple stop outs and false signals due to choppy VWAP action.
Over-risking despite weekly profits.
Missed key liquidity sweep long opportunity.
New Rules Learned:
Implement a rule for avoiding chop outs.
Prioritize order blocks alignment:
Shorts: Higher timeframe order blocks should be above lower timeframe order blocks.
Longs: Higher timeframe order blocks should be below lower timeframe order blocks.
Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded.
Overall Summary
Strengths:
Strong market analysis and ability to identify traps.
Effective use of playbook trade principles.
Recognized need for risk management and journaling.
Weaknesses:
Struggled with choppy price action and false signals.
Over-risking and missing key opportunities.
Need for better confirmation signals to avoid multiple stop outs.
New Key Rules Learned:
Reassess timing and confirmation signals before re-entering trades.
Incorporate additional data points to strengthen the thesis.
Implement order block alignment rules for better trade confirmation.
Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded to manage risk.
Overall Performance:
The week involved a mix of strong analysis and execution issues due to choppy market conditions.
Important lessons on trade confirmation, risk management, and order block alignment learned for future improvement.
9:29AM. Looking for longs off open atm, would write more detailed but I have 30 seconds.
10:06AM. Ive taken 2 loses on trap longs. Garbage action at the VWAP.
10:20AM. This is seriously awful price action. I am currently following a rule of going to the next timeframe over if my entry fails. So far I have been stopped out of M2 & M5. I am contemplating M15, but I honestly dont think I want to take the trade. I would prefer an extremity at the VWAP bands at this point. Im thinking to trust a VWAP trade for the 3rd time would be a mistake, also because the R/R would put me at negative R Multiple from the 15M chart.
10:49AM. I took a short at the area where the M15 chart signaled long. I wasnt comfortable taking the trade after that type of trade stopped me out 2 times prior. Also, because of the negative R Multiple, I just marketed short and it got me bascially at breakeven OTD.
11:40AM. Pretty boring trading session, stuck in a tight range, chopping the VWAP with no extremities trade opportunities. Down around $56 on the session. Looking to just get green OTD so I can walk.
12:43 What a stupid fucking trading session. Shit is so fucking annoying. Just constantly giving me flase signals over and over again. If I just took the fucking long trade at the sweep of liquidity lower at LOD, id be up on fucking session and could have walked already.
1:38PM Passed my evaluation, multiple chop outs OTD, and we will have to do some deep journaling this week to figure out how to avoid that many stop outs in the future. But we put our money where our mouth was. Took on a bit too much risk to be honest. But we were playing with some profits on the week.
It doesnt matter how much profit we made OTW in theory, because we are against trailing drawdown.
Trading the M30 trend shift would have resulted in the least amount of drawdown upon entry for the trading session.
I also could have avoided squeeze loses but waiting for the break below the upperband, in which this case, we were trending above from the area we broke out of.
I also think that following the rule of going to the next timeframe higher upon each stopout, would really help with mitigating my risk.
This was a very difficult trading session due to many mixed signals on my days VWAP. I was thinking long, which was the first initial move. I just got chopped out of all of my variation signals. And the moment I tried to trade against the range, I got squeezed. But ultimately, the trade OTD that worked was off of yesterdays orderblock signals, from M30 orderblocks down to the M2 Orderblocks. That was in confluence with another H12 bullish trend attempt and fakeout for a move lower. The only difference with todays setup was that the H12 candle didnt sweep the Buy Side Liquidity from the orderblocks presented before it dropped. Thats why this action was so tricky. It was a fight for price the entire time, and my trend shift signals kept going off, I will have to implement rules that keep me from getting chopped out like this in the future.
The short rejection came from the prior day 15 Minute Bearish Orderblock. The orderblock sequence was larger timeframe orderblocks lower to higher. As the timeframes granually got shorter as the orderblocks went higher, (as it should during a short trade) this M15 bearish orderblock was ABOVE the 5 minute and 2 minute bearish orderblocks. In the future, I will have to make sure that I implement it as a rule, that if there is an inconsistency with orderblocks in relation to their location, that will be the new A+ orderblock rule.
I will make it official
(New Trading Rule For Orderblocks)
Order blocks that come from shorts, tend to come from lower timeframes the higher the orderblock
Orderblocks that come from longs, tend to come from lower timeframes the lower the orderblock
Our new rule is
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframeframe is above an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a short, that will be our short signal***
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframe is below an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a long, that will be our long signal.***
NOW THAT YOU ARE FUNDED, YOU **MUST MUST MUST** NOT TRADE MORE THAN 1 MICRO ON ANY GIVEN TRADE FOR **AT LEAST** THE FIRST 10 TRADING DAYS OF BEING FUNDED. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT EXECUTE TRADES WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF RISK YOU HAVE USED TO PASS THIS EVALUATION. OUR MAIN PRIORITY IS SIMPLY GETTING OUR FIRST PAYOUT. MAKING TRADING BECOME REAL, SEEING SOMETHING IN RETURN FOR THE YEARS OF HARD WORK AND DEDICATION YOU HAVE PUT TOWARDS THIS CRAFT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF, AND YOU DESERVE IT.
IF YOU TAKE 1 MICRO CONTRACT WITH YOUR SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE YOUR TRADING FREQUENCY, BUILD THE CONFIDENCE FOR HITTING THE BUY OR SELL BUTTON AND GETTING RID OF FEAR AND HESITATION, HELPING YOU FINE TUNE YOUR STRATEGY IN THE PROCESS SO THAT YOU CAN HELP DEVELOP YOUR PLAYBOOK AND TRADING RULES.
WITH GOOD TRADES YOU SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MAKE AROUND 250-300 BUCKS TRADING A DAY. AND AFTER THE 10 DAY PERIOD, THAT IS A 2500 PAYOUT, 5K A MONTH,
Pattern: Bullish Pre Market, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Prior Day High & Low Draw on Liquidity (DOL), Monthly VWAP
Trading Notes:
Pre-Market Analysis (8:38 AM)
Observed an overnight gap above the prior month's low, indicating potential continuation higher due to in-the-money buy orders from Friday.
Daily VWAP trending through its upper band.
Monthly VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M chart showed alignment with prior day's high and low liquidity draws.
Bias: Expecting a liquidity sweep above the prior day's high followed by a failure.
No major economic news anticipated; expected selling into the open.
First Trade (9:45 AM)
Short trade on the 2-minute chart, stopped out.
Maintained the same thesis; looked for re-entry on the 5-minute chart.
Second Trade (M5 Re-Entry)
Re-entered on the M5 chart based on Monthly VWAP Trend and Variation shift to the downside.
Target: Weekly DOL after sweeping prior day's high DOL.
Thesis: Expected overnight longs to cover positions into the open, creating sell-side pressure. Anticipated multiple traps (shorts and longs) to be sprung for a downside move.
This setup was a playbook trade where a prior day close to pre-market open gap gets absorbed and traded against.
Mid-Trade Update (11:30 AM)
Trade entered drawdown but moved in the expected direction.
Covered 1 of the 2 contracts, holding the 2nd for the full Monthly VWAP upper band to lower band move.
End of Day (2:41 PM)
The trade ended negatively.
Targeting the DOL lower on the week and expecting the playbook trade to play out did not work as planned.
Recognized the need to revisit this trade signal for future improvements.
Things Done Right:
Identified and analyzed key support and resistance levels using VWAP and DOL.
Maintained a consistent thesis and adapted to re-enter on a higher timeframe (M5) after being stopped out on a lower timeframe (M2).
Managed risk by covering 1 of the 2 contracts during the trade.
Things Done Wrong:
Initial trade on the 2-minute chart led to an early stop-out.
Targeted a specific weekly DOL that did not play out as anticipated.
The final trade resulted in a loss, indicating a need to reassess the trade signal and entry criteria.
New Key Rules Learned:
Reassess Entry Criteria: Review and potentially adjust entry criteria when initial trades are stopped out to avoid repeated drawdowns.
Signal Validation: Further validate trade signals to improve the accuracy of entries, especially for playbook trades.
Risk Management: Continue refining risk management strategies, including partial covers and setting realistic targets.
By analyzing these notes, you can refine your strategy and rules, focusing on improving your trade entries, managing risk more effectively, and validating your trade signals for better future performance.
Its currently 8:38 AM as im beginning todays journaling session. And right off of the bat, there is an overnight gap above the prior month low. Which tells me that the buy orders hitting the tape on friday, could very well be in the money for todays trading session for a continuation higher. And since the 1D VWAP is trending through its upperband. I decided to take the next deivation, which actually happened to be the Month VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M. There is also a draw on liquidity for both the high and the low of the prior day. And it aligns pretty well with the Month VWAP bands. So what Im thinking is going to happen, is that there will be a liquidity sweep above the prior day high, and we will see a failure, after the liquidity is swept. That is my current bias. There is no major economic news today either, and I would figure that there should be some selling into the open.
9:45, was just stopped out of an opening short trade on the 2 minute chart, still have the same thesis, will re enter if presented on the M5 chart
I re entered on the M5 Month VWAP Trend And Variation shift to the downside. Targeting the weekly dol after the prior day high dol was swept. I am currently risking another squeeze to grab more buy stops on what I believe is a manipulation trade up. My thesis is that the overnight longs will be covering their positions into the open session here, creating sellside pressure, and that the manipulation up, will have trapped early opening shorts, and also create a false breakout to the upside for longs, trapping them on the way back down. So, theres multiple traps involved in this setup. And it follows our playbook trade, backed by data, where a prior day close to pre market open gap gets absorbed and traded against. So, we will see what happens. Ive made more money to the downside as well than my long trades. If it doesnt work, it is what it is.
11:30, The trade put me into some drawdown, but It is currently in my direction, and I covered 1 of the 2 contracts. Going to attempt to hold the 2nd one for the full Month VWAP Upperband to Lowerband move.
2:41PM Red fucking day. What else is new...
I was targeting the DOL lower on the week, and for the playbook trade to play out, and it didnt. Will have to revisit this incorrect trade signal in the future.
9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
General Observations:
Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.
Wrong:
Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.
Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.
Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.
4o
9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.
11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick.
3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.
Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future.
Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops.
Noticed a gap between the prior day close and premarket open, below the 1 Day VWAP lower band, indicating bearish displacement.
Attempted a long position off the next VWAP band which failed, reinforcing a bearish trend shift.
Trade Execution:
Shorted the PML (Pre-Market Low) due to clear stop-loss placement and strong downside pressure.
Anticipated a trend day given the downside action on the weekly chart and the market being in a discount area on multiple timeframes.
Observed zero drawdown from entry, indicating strong downside pressure and a well-timed entry.
10:40 AM:
The market continued making lower lows with no clear downside target due to distant DOL (Draw on Liquidity).
The VWAP and 21 EMA on the M2 chart indicated a consistent downtrend.
Entry experienced no retests, further validating the strength of the position.
12:30 PM:
Closed the trade with a profit of over $500, bringing the account over the $1K mark.
Decision to lock in profits was based on a successful morning session and strong performance.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Effective premarket analysis identified key gaps and trends, leading to a high-probability short setup.
Correctly identified the PML as a strategic entry point with minimal risk.
The trade execution was well-timed with no drawdown, indicating strong market understanding.
Wrong:
Initial hesitation to confirm the bearish trend shift earlier could have improved entry precision.
Outcome: Successfully executed a short trade based on premarket analysis and trend confirmation, resulting in a profit of over $500. The strategy of letting the trade run with stops at session highs proved effective, and the consistent analysis and execution aligned with the identified patterns and signals.
Overall Summary: The trading session was marked by a disciplined approach, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis to confirm a bearish bias. The entry at the PML was well-placed, experiencing no drawdown and indicating strong downside pressure. The decision to lock in profits at $500 was prudent, demonstrating effective trade management and risk control. This trade reinforces the importance of thorough premarket analysis and strategic entry points, contributing to the overall success of the trading session.
10:05 AM. So im currently in a trade, I shorted the PML and its in the money, during the premarket session, I noticed a gap between the prior day close, and the pre market open. And this was under a key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, signaling clear displacement below the key band. I tried a long off of the next VWAP band, and that broke. It was after that loss that I confirmed the shift in direction, when I could have confirmed it after the gap. Also, I could have set an entry where my stop was on the overnight long entry attempt.
The reason I shorted the PML is because it was the only area upon open, that I could see a clear stoploss placement, so I used it as my entry. Im currently not sure how low this is going to drop, as we hit the first wk DOL in the overnight session. But the next day, week, and month lower DOL, is very far away, so I honestly removed a target to the downside, and im just letting it drop. With this type of downside action, on weekly chart moves, these are usually where we get trend days. Also, we are technically in a discount area, on multiple timeframes, so usually when that happens, no one wants to short, because it appears we are low in the range, and also, no one wants to long, because the sellside pressure is so strong, these tend to be the days where everyone just sits on the sidelines and misses big moves.
Another strong signal for this short, was the I went under no drawdown from the time of entry, which signals how strong the downside pressure really is. Im already up 200 points.
Also, a key tell that the downtrend would continue from the gap, is that it also changed the direction of the H12 trend, which is obvously half the amount of time of a full daily candle, so it usually confirms directional bias.
And, on the daily chart, with the prior day close, suggested that the next target higher would be the prior day high wick, and upon the opening of the next day gap, it shifted the daily trend, as the prior day low was broken, and suggested a draw on liquidity at the 2 day prior bar low, near the lower weekly draw on liquidity. And the gap created earlier in the week, off of that chop out 30 day fibonacci trade I took, has been completely absorbed now at the time of writing this.
So overall, this gap between the prior day close and premarket open was a major tell, and can act as displacement to confirm breaks of major levels. It happened at the beginning week gap, claiming the prior month low, which was the turtle soup type of trade that I was looking for.
I think for now I will make a new rule, that if the H12 trend is going against the VWAP Upper or Lowerband Buy Or Sell signals, than I can not take that trade.
My current plan for this trade, is to literally just let it drop for the duration of the trading session. With stops at session HOD, which I dont think will be triggered. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think Im willing to take the bet, as I should be increasing my risk slightly with my journaling data, and because we are now 3 plus weeks into this evaluation. But, the VWAP and the Lowerband are consistenly downtrending, which I take as a continuation sell signal, and massive downside volume.
10:40 AM. Still making lower lows, still no downside target, becuase the next DOL is very far away. Still in a consistent downtrend on the VWAP, and consistently holding below the 21 EMA on M2 chart. The interesting part about my entry, is that not only did it incur zero drawdown, but it also didnt experience any retests of my price. This strongly signals a great entry price.
12:30PM i just got back from a walk. decided to lock it up. im happy with todays profits over $500 dollars. its put my account over the 1K mark
Initiated a short position at the break of the prior day’s low (PML) during the premarket session.
Noticed a gap between the prior day's close and the premarket open, indicating a potential shift in direction.
Recognized displacement below the key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, confirming a bearish bias.
After a failed long trade attempt off the VWAP band, confirmed the shift in direction and shorted the PML as it was the only clear stop-loss placement.
Trade Execution:
The trade was immediately profitable, indicating strong downside pressure with no drawdown from the entry point.
Decided to let the trade run without a specific downside target, anticipating a trend day based on the weekly chart moves and the strong sell-side pressure.
Market Behavior:
Observed consistent lower lows with no retests of the entry price, reinforcing the strength of the entry.
The VWAP and Lowerband continued to downtrend, acting as a continuation sell signal with massive downside volume.
Outcome:
Took a walk and decided to lock in profits upon return, closing the trade with over $500 in profit, pushing the account balance over $1,000.
Additional Notes:
End-of-Day Reflection:
Achieved the biggest profit day on the account, totaling over $1,200.
Increased trading frequency based on the notes suggesting the VWAP trade as an "easy money trade."
Faced a critical moment with a VWAP dip buy that came close to blowing the account but was saved by the monthly VWAP support.
Acknowledged the risk of trading too heavily, with a full position size of 16+ contracts, and the importance of not over-leveraging with a trailing drawdown.
Key Takeaways:
Successful in capitalizing on the VWAP patterns and adhering to the identified signals.
Realized the importance of managing position size and avoiding excessive risk.
Future trades will be limited to entering 1 micro at a time and building positions incrementally to manage risk effectively.
Key Lessons:
Right:
Accurately identified the VWAP lower band as a support level, leading to a well-timed short entry.
Trusted the VWAP signals and followed the identified patterns, resulting in significant profits.
Wrong:
Took on excessive risk by trading too heavily with 16+ contracts, nearly risking the account.
Averaging down to improve price, although it worked out this time, it is not a sustainable strategy given the trailing drawdown.
Overall Summary: This trade highlighted the effectiveness of using VWAP patterns and signals to identify high-probability trades. While the execution led to significant profits, it also underscored the importance of risk management and the dangers of over-leveraging. The adjustment to trading frequency and position sizing will be crucial for sustaining future success and protecting the account from significant drawdowns.
Today I made a great deal of money, my biggest day on this account since I began, in total, I made over $1200 dollars. and I did it in part because I did tweak my 2 trade rule today, and I actually spent most of the day involved in a trade, and its because I realize that I need to pick up my trading frequency on the trade that has been suggested from my notes, and that is my VWAP trade. It seems to currently be my 'easy money trade'. And I just decided to keep taking the signals and trusting the outcome.
I will same, I came waaay to close to blowing the account today, and that was with a VWAP dip buy, that was saved by the Month VWAP. It wound up sweeping the 9:30 Open Low, taking the long stops from the morning session, and then ripping in my direction. It really was a make or break moment for this account, and I nearly lost it. I was waaay to heavy in size, at full position was around 16 plus contracts. I can never do that again. I was averaging down to improve my price, and although it went in my direction, thats besides the point. You simply cant trade that size with trailing drawdown ever.
So therefor, If I want to increase my trading frequency, I can only enter 1 Micro at a time, and build a position with 1 Micro at a time. With this particular trade, I was slapping the trade with 2 micros at a time. And its too heavy.
The only way I can add is with A side setups, and confirmations through multiple timeframes.
Setup: Based on the 30D low to high Fibonacci (61.8% level), entry was supported by the lower DOL (Daily Open Low) and demand entries on the M1 chart.
Second Trade:
Outcome: Loss.
Mistake: Entered after observing large buy orders, which led to a sudden market drop. The decision to size in more aggressively and the resulting market movement caused a loss.
Issue: The trade could have been more profitable if the exit had been executed at the top, instead of getting faked out by the tape.
Setup Analysis
Initial Entry:
Reasoning: Entry was based on a significant imbalance and the next draw on liquidity being the prior month's low. The setup aimed to capitalize on a potential “monthly turtle soup” scenario, where early longs were swept out.
Outcome: First trade was successful, validating the use of the setup.
Subsequent Entry:
Reasoning: Aimed for a continuation based on the earlier setup, but market dynamics changed with a massive buyer’s presence and subsequent market tanking.
Issue: Lack of exit strategy led to unnecessary losses.
Key Insights
Tape Reading: Relying solely on the tape can be misleading. It’s essential to align entries with broader market context and confirmation from other indicators.
Setup Testing: Testing new setups like the monthly turtle soup provides valuable data for refining future entries.
Fibonacci Levels: The 30D low to high Fibonacci levels have shifted. The 61.8% bounce is no longer relevant, but marking previous levels can aid in tracking future reversals.
Future Considerations
Liquidity Zones: Continue to monitor significant liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence areas (e.g., 90D 38.2% and 30D 78.6% Fibonacci levels) for potential bounces.
Exit Strategy: Develop a clearer exit strategy to avoid losses due to market volatility or misleading tape signals.
Refinement: Adjust trading strategies based on ongoing analysis of setups, particularly in identifying and managing risk more effectively.
Action Items
Track Setups: Continue to track and refine the use of Fibonacci levels and liquidity zones based on historical performance.
Monitor Tape: Use tape reading as a supplementary tool rather than the primary basis for trade decisions. Validate tape signals with other indicators.
Refine Strategy: Incorporate the lessons learned about entry and exit strategies into the trading plan.
Updated Checklist for Trade Entries
Setup Confirmation:
Validate with multi-timeframe analysis.
Check Fibonacci levels and liquidity zones.
Execution:
Prefer high probability setups with clear entry and exit criteria.
Avoid sizing in aggressively based on tape reading alone.
Exit Strategy:
Define exit points before entering trades.
Use trailing stops or predefined targets to lock in profits and minimize losses.
Post-Trade Analysis:
Review trades for compliance with strategy.
Adjust tactics based on market behavior and performance data.
I took 2 trades, the first was a solid winner, the second one could have been avoided, by taking the profit at the top, rather than sizing in & getting faked out by the tape. I seen massive buy orders coming in, and the moment I pressed the buy button, the market tanked. It was likely a big buyer that was building a position that could potentially take off next week.
The entry I decided to take was based on a massive imbalance for the next draw on liquidity lower, which is the prior month low, which is very far away. And the break of a prior month low, with a 20-30D fibonacci long entry. My thought process was that there is alot of potential for the early longs to have been swept out of the marketplace with stops below the prior month low, and we could have seen a monthly turtle soup entry. This was my first time testing the entry, and after the move chooses a direction, I will have more data on more confirmation for the setup.
The 30D low the high has changed with a slightly higher low now after the following day, so the 61.8% bounce is no longer in play. But i marked the prior 30D low to high, so that if the market does happen to reverse in the future, I can track the timeframe in which the entry occured to avoid senseless losses in the future.
For now, we have confluence between the 90D 38.2% fibonacci & the 30D 78.6% fibonacci, so with liquidity drawing lower, I think it is likely that this confluence area will be the next potential bounce play.
I guess the takeaway will be for the loss of profits on this trading day. DONT SOLELY TRUST THE TAPE.
Woke up past my alarm but identified a break and retest setup which aligned with my trading strategy.
The pre-market open served as support, which broke, and then retested as resistance.
Entered the short trade as the price moved through the overnight gap between the prior day's close and the pre-market open.
Targeted the next draw on liquidity, which was the weekly low, following the direction of the prevailing trend.
Observed that using the M5 chart provided better entry opportunities with minimal drawdown, and high hit rate.
Noted that the draw on liquidity approach has been effective in predicting the next target.
Insights and Strategy Adjustments:
Plan to monitor potential bounces at the 20D (Month Low) and recent liquidity sweeps at the weekly low in future sessions.
If bulls fail to hold the level, the next target could be the prior month low, which is a significant distance away.
Consider waiting for prior order block entries on smaller timeframes if a bullish trend shift occurs off the monthly level.
Realized the importance of sizing correctly and the impact it could have had on the trade's profitability. Missed an opportunity to size appropriately due to waking up late and acting on gut instinct.
Emphasized the importance of proper candle timeframe alignment for better trade timing, reducing premature entries, and ensuring high accuracy.
Performance and Reflection:
The trade went in my favor, and the setup was validated by the break and retest pattern.
Noted that waiting for the right candle timeframe alignment to provide liquidity has been beneficial for accurate trade timing.
Identified the need for better pre-market preparation to avoid missing sizing opportunities and maximize trading potential.
Updated Trading Rules and Checklist:
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Draw on Liquidity, Inverse FVG, and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, Break & Retest, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability order blocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
Entry Size and Risk Management:
Ensure proper position sizing using the position size calculator before entering a trade.
Avoid trading based on gut instinct and ensure all trades align with the predefined strategy and setup criteria.
Please provide the next trade entry and notes for further analysis and refinement.
4o
I woke up past my alarm clock, but I seen a trade setup present itself, and it went in my favor.
This was a break and retest setup/support turned resistance play for the premarket open serving as support in the premarket, which broke, went through the overnight gap between the prior day close and pre market open, and I took it for further downside toward the next draw on liquidity which was the weekly low. As that is the direction the market was still trending.
Draw on liquidity has worked well thus far with predicting the next target for me, and its a very simplistic approach of where the trend is likely to go next due to prior price action trend with multi-timeframe analysis.
Another I noted, was that the M5 chart may provide slightly better opportunities for entry for the time being, due to the higher timeframe levels being presented at the moment, and it appears the M5 variations provided no drawdown upon entry with high hit rate, so for now I will execute on that timeframe unless the data suggests otherwise.
Going into tomorrows trading session, I will be watching for a potential bounce at the 20D (Month Low) and for the most recent sweep on liquidity at the weekly low, to potentially hold for a bounce. If the bulls fail to hold the level tomorrow, I would expect that the next DOL is the prior month low, which is quite far away. There is also a 61.8% retracement level between the 30D Low to High. And since the range will likely be very large from a bearish to bullish trend shift, it may be smart to wait for prior orderblock entries on the smaller timeframes, if we do happen to get that bullish trend shift off of this monthly level.
I should have hit the trade I entered today with more size, but because my alarm clock didnt go off, I was unable to properly size, and because I went off gut instinct, I only took 1 contract. If I sized correctly, it likely could have been around an $800-$900 trading day.
Another thing that has been helping tremendously is waiting for the proper candle timeframe alignment for the move, when that specific candle is actually offer the buy side or sell side liquidity that Im expecting, I think that is the best way to actually time my trades. Other then getting in too early and getting stopped out with death by 1000 cuts. And while providing that liquidty, it also provides a trend shift & variation to ensure high accuracy & the A+ side of a setup.
Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.
Trade of the Day Setup:
Premarket Analysis:
Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
Session Analysis:
The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
VWAP Settings and Observations:
Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
No trade day.
This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.
It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.
During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against.
Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries.
Slept in late due to lack of response from APEX regarding trading issues.
Missed trading opportunities as a result.
Trade of the Day Setup:
VWAP Analysis:
Today's setup was a straightforward VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short on the M1 timeframe.
The 2 Day Anchored VWAP did not present any extremes for a short entry.
Insights:
Plan to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines for identifying high probability trade entries.
Recognized the importance of being prepared and at the computer early, especially before significant data drops.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations and VWAP bands for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands or prior significant levels (Daily Open, Previous High/Low).
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Another no trade day, I slept in late because I never got an early response from APEX on the inability to trade. And although its likely made me miss alot of opportunity this week, I will be at the computer early tomorrow before data.
With that being said, todays trade of the day was a simple VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short off of the 1 Day M1 timeframe. The 2 Day Anchored VWAP didnt provide any extremitiy to either of the bands to short.
But, this week has provided some insight, that it will likely be smart to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines in the future for high probability trade entries.
Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).
Future Strategy Adjustments:
Execution Timeframe:
When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.
Execution Data:
More data should suggest the best possible approach.
Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.
Mental Trade:
Mental Long Entry:
Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
The trade wound up failing.
It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.
Setup Classifications:
A Side Setup: Initial move.
B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
C Setup: To be defined in the future.
Action Points:
Higher Timeframe Confirmation:
Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.
Execution Timeframe:
Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.
Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:
If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.
Follow Setup Classifications:
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted'
But here is the trade of the day setup.
For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band.
On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.
So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed.
Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD.
There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)
So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.
Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.
Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
Market Context:
The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.
Things Done Right:
Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.
Things Done Wrong:
Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.
Recommendations and Checklist
Recommendations:
Preparation:
Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.
Trade Management:
Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.
Market Context:
Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.
Review and Adapt:
Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.
Structured Checklist
Before Market Open:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.
Pre-Trade:
Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.
During Trading:
Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.
Post-Trade:
Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.
Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.
Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.
I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.
Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.
There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.
I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented.
Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines
This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided
Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal
Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.
Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.
(Things I Did Right)
- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry
(Things I Did Wrong)
- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)
- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand
- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release
Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.
Recommendations and Learnings
Discipline and Routine:
Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.
Missed Opportunities:
While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.
Trade of the Day Analysis:
Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.
Risk Management:
Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.
Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy
Playbook Development
Setup Identification:
Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.
Execution Guidelines:
Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.
Review and Adapt:
Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.
Checklist for Future Trades
Preparation:
Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.
Execution:
Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.
Reflection:
Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.
By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.
No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.
I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.
Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.
One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.
Fibonacci Level Utilization: Utilized the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from premarket low to ATH failure as a key entry point.
Intraday Analysis: Anticipated and monitored a retest of the premarket open for potential long opportunities.
Playbook Addition: Integrated this setup into your playbook for future reference and monitoring.
M1 Chart Confirmation: Identified buyers at the Fibonacci level on the M1 chart, indicating strong support.
H12 Chart Trend: Noted a bullish trend on the H12 chart, with trendline confirmation supporting the trade entry.
Trade Execution: Noted minimal drawdown if the trade was executed on the M1 chart, followed by significant upside for the rest of the day.
Trailing Stop Strategy: Recognized the potential for a substantial profit (12R) if trailed on the H2 chart, highlighting effective risk management.
Recommendations and Learnings
Utilization of Fibonacci Levels:
Continue to leverage Fibonacci retracement levels for precise entry points and potential support/resistance areas.
Monitor reactions at these levels across multiple timeframes (like M1 for short-term signals and H12 for broader trends).
Playbook Development:
Expand playbook to include setups based on Fibonacci levels and trendline confirmations across various timeframes.
Regularly update and refine playbook entries based on market conditions and historical performance.
Risk Management:
Implement trailing stop strategies effectively, considering both short-term (M1) and longer-term (H2) chart dynamics.
Evaluate potential trade scenarios for maximum risk-reward ratios, aiming for high profitability trades like the observed 12R opportunity.
Market Context Awareness:
Maintain awareness of broader market trends and intraday fluctuations to validate trade setups.
Adapt strategies based on real-time market conditions and adjust entries/exits accordingly.
Integration into Playbook Strategy
Key Elements for Playbook Development
Entry Criteria:
Define clear entry criteria based on Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline confirmations, validated across multiple timeframes.
Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Establish precise levels using strategic points such as Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline breaks, while considering trailing stop strategies.
Execution and Management:
Execute trades promptly based on defined criteria and playbook strategies, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols.
Monitor trade progress and adjust stops or take profits based on real-time market movements.
Conclusion
By integrating these insights into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data and market conditions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy effectively.
Todays trade of the day setup came from the 78.6% fibonacci level from the premarket low to the ATH failure.
During the day, I was anticipating a retest of the pre market open for longs, but now I will add this trade setup to my playbook and monitor reactions at the 78.6% fibonacci on the M1 chart for buyers.
Had this trade been taken off of the M1 chart, the drawdown would have been virtually nothing before it took of to reach new highs for the rest of the day.
Also, on this trading day, the H12 chart was trending higher, and I set a trendline from each bars low, I noticed that it also provided a trade signal for this exact entry today
once it broke below the trendline, it was in the demand area, and as soon at the M1 chart flipped, the trade took off.
Trailing this trade on the H2 chart would have provided a 12R trade, MASSIVE!
Trade Execution: Attempted a short position following the 2nd attempt at ATH (All-Time High), leveraging various technical patterns for entry.
Patterns Identified:
2nd ATH short attempt: Capitalized on a potential reversal pattern after failing to break ATH.
Immediate stopout: Likely triggered by volatility or quick reversal against the anticipated direction.
M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation: Signal of shift from bullish to bearish sentiment on M1 timeframe.
M1 red bar trail stop: Used a trailing stop strategy based on M1 bar movements.
Missed Target: Potential failure to reach anticipated target due to market dynamics or premature exit.
VWAP Upperband short: Positioned entry based on VWAP Upperband indicating potential resistance.
VWAP Upperband To Lowerband: Expected move from VWAP Upperband to Lowerband as confirmation of downtrend continuation.
Analysis and Insights:
Execution Timing: Attempted to capitalize on reversal patterns near ATH, using technical signals for entry.
Outcome: Immediate stopout suggests volatility or reversal against the anticipated direction, leading to a small gain.
Pattern Utilization: Integrated multiple patterns to identify short opportunities aligned with market conditions.
Integration into Playbook Strategy
Key Elements for Playbook Development
Learning from Immediate Stopout:
Evaluate reasons for immediate stopouts to refine entry criteria and avoid false signals.
Consider adjusting timing or confirmation signals to reduce premature exits.
Pattern Validation:
Continuously validate patterns across different timeframes to confirm trade setups.
Refine playbook with setups that consistently align with market behavior and trend confirmations.
Risk Management:
Enhance risk management strategies to mitigate losses during volatile market conditions.
Implement trailing stops or adjust position sizing based on pattern reliability and market volatility.
Conclusion
This trade analysis underscores the importance of integrating multiple patterns and technical indicators into a cohesive trading strategy while emphasizing disciplined risk management. Continue to evaluate trade outcomes to refine your playbook and adapt to evolving market dynamics.
The first short attempt I tried was on prior data suggesting that the 2nd ATH break should provide the HOD from where we could drop. After this first short trade, I could have avoided it by waiting for a test of the VWAP Upperband.
I now know that the VWAP upperband, is a more important factor than the amount of times that the ATH breaks.
And Upperband VWAP test, with an M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation provided a high probability, consistent trade setup thus far. And from the setups I have witnessed, once an extreme on the bands has been hit, it appears that a full move to the other exremity is likely from the point of entry
(Things I Did Right)
- Getting a solid entry on the second short opportunity at the M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation setup off of the VWAP Upperband
- Trailstopping half position on the first initial pump back up, allowing me to capture a bit more downside
(Things I did wrong)
- Taking profit on the trade too early, without reaching the bottom band as a profit target on the highest R/R short entry opportunity of the day
Just as my prior trade today, I need to develop a trail stopping strategy to help me capture the dominant move in the future, and for now my theory is to test different timeframes based on entries to find which one captures the most amount of profit on average
Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:
Insights from Your Trade
Early Preparation:
Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.
Utilizing Premarket Analysis:
Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.
Trade Execution on M1 Chart:
Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.
Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):
Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.
Stop Loss Management:
Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.
Recommendations for Refinement
Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:
Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.
Partial Profit Taking:
Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.
Journal and Analyze:
Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.
Review and Adjust Post-Session:
Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.
Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.
During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.
Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.
So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.
I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.
Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.
Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points.
(What I Did Right)
- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open
- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket
- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend
(What I Did Wrong)
- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early)
Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven
Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.
What You Can Improve:
Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.
Next Steps:
Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.
Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.
Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.
Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.
I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day.
Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.
I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.
ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.
(Things I did right)
- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan
- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH
- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion
- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level
- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade
- Sizing with Open Print Theory
- Trading with a playbook concept
- Following my hard stoplosses
- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.
- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.
- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket
(Things I did wrong)
- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.
Did not wait for the H12 candle to shift bearish, which led to a misaligned trade bias.
Did not size the position correctly, resulting in excessive exposure compared to previous successful trades.
Things I did right:
Maintained a structured stop loss strategy based on the H6 candle high.
Recognized the choppiness of the trading session and identified the need for better trade selection criteria.
Changes to trading strategy:
Incorporate H12 trend analysis to determine daily bias before executing trades.
Integrate TTM Squeeze indicator on the M5 chart to avoid trading during choppy sessions. A red TTM Squeeze signal will prompt a no-trade decision.
These adjustments should help in refining your trading approach by ensuring alignment with longer-term trends and improving trade selection during varying market conditions. If you have further trades or aspects of your strategy to discuss or refine, feel free to share.
Im a bottom tick fucking master. Only thing is, it was the complete opposite directional trade. I shorted at the low of the day. Makes sense.
I took this trade because of a bullish to bearish shift on the H4 chart. Because, apparently, according to my prior data, I should only have been executing on the default timeframes. But it doesnt really seem like it matters at this point, because the break of the H4 uptrend didnt shift the daily to bearish. It just kept going higher.
I have 3 or 4 other trades to journal. And somehow, I chose to complete top and bottom tick of each opposite side on every single fucking trade.
So the only thing that I can come up with at this point, is that if the 12H bar doesnt shift, then I cannot change my bias.
(Things I did wrong)
- Not waiting for the H12 candle to shift bearish.
- Did not size correctly, I went in 4 times heavier on the loss, than I did on my last biggest win, this is unacceptable
(Things I did right)
- Basically nothing, didnt even follow my first inital stoploss at the premarket open daily print. But my stoploss was set at the high of the H6 candle, which at that time, was still offering sell side liquidity in between the H4 and H12 candles.
Today was also a very choppy trading session, and I need to know when to sit out, for this reason, I am going to incorporate the TTM squeeze to give me a clear indication on when I should be involved in a trade
(Changes to trading strategy)
- Use H12 trend to decipher daily bias
- Use TTM squeeze to avoid choppy sessions ( had I used TTM on M5 chart today, I could have avoided the chop on all losing trades ) IF ITS RED, NO TRADE
Difficulty of the Session: Acknowledge that the trading day was tough, with challenges like being stopped out of a prior long.
Entry Signal: Identified a long entry opportunity around the premarket open (PMO), which coincided with a stop run that turned out to be the low of the day.
Additional Signals: Utilized an M1 TTM squeeze long signal and a test of the lower VWAP band for entry confirmation.
Learnings and Adjustments:
Referring Back to Setups: Recognize the value of documenting and referring back to "Trade of the Day" setups for future trading sessions. This approach helps in anticipating similar setups and improving execution.
Predominant Trend: Reflect on the importance of identifying and following the predominant long bias trend, which was supported by bullish signals from weekly, daily, and H12 charts.
Strategy Adjustment: Plan to adhere closely to the bullish trend premise in upcoming sessions to potentially capitalize on similar setups.
Moving Forward:
Learning from Challenges: Take lessons from the tough trading session to refine strategies and improve decision-making.
Consistency in Approach: Maintain discipline in analyzing and executing trades based on identified setups and trend biases.
Preparation: Continue using historical setups and market analysis to prepare for future trading opportunities effectively.
Trade Of The Day Setup 7/08/2024
Todays trading session was very difficult. I was stopped out of a prior long and that stop run was actually the low around the PMO(premarketopen) where the long of the day entry was provided. I also had other signals like a M1 TTM squeeze long signal, and a test of the lower VWAP band for an entry. So next time this type of trading day/setup is in play, I will use this trade of the day concept to refer back to a likely setup that can play out again in the future.
I could have figured that the predominant trend would still remain long biased due to the fact that the superior trend remained bullish from the weekly, daily and h12 charts. I have to follow this premise tomorrow so that I can bounce back.
Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.
Learnings:
Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.
No Trade Day.
Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss.
But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.
It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend.
Line in the Sand Identification: Successfully identified the critical price level, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance.'
Adapting to Market Conditions: After being stopped out, you were able to pivot and take a trade in the opposite direction, showing flexibility.
Stop Loss Management: Properly placed and adhered to stop losses, maintaining discipline in risk management.
Recognizing Trade Signals: Understanding the importance of the initial trend shift (A side setup) and how subsequent retests (B, C, etc.) weaken the setup.
Areas for Improvement
Morning Routine: Waking up past your alarm again is a recurring issue. This needs to be addressed to ensure you're prepared for the trading day.
Entry Quality: Took low probability trades away from desired entry points, which led to unnecessary losses.
Position Sizing: Took on too heavy of a contract size, going against your position size calculator recommendations.
Trade Execution: Placing a limit order short against session open volume instead of using a buy stop to flip the trade thesis was a mistake.
Trade Management: Covered the trade too early, missing out on potential profits. Could have managed the trade better by taking off partial positions and leaving runners.
Data Awareness: Not marking data drops on candles led to misinterpretations of market movements.
Key Takeaways
Default Timeframe Execution: The distinction between H4, H6, and H12 trends shows the need for a clear execution model. Default timeframes seem to offer better clarity for entries.
Trend Confirmation: The initial trend break (A setup) is stronger, and retests (B, C, etc.) become progressively weaker. This insight should guide your trade selections.
Data Marking: Marking data drops on candles is crucial to understand market reactions and avoid misinterpreting moves.
Action Plan
Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:
Improve your alarm setup, possibly using multiple alarms or a more disruptive alarm system to ensure you wake up on time.
Ensure you're getting adequate rest to avoid oversleeping.
Refine Entry Strategy:
Stick to high probability entries near desired levels.
Use buy/sell stops to enter trades rather than limit orders against session volume.
Position Sizing Discipline:
Strictly adhere to the position size calculator to avoid taking on excessive risk.
If a trade requires a heavier size, ensure it's justified by a higher probability setup.
Data Awareness:
Mark data release times on your charts to anticipate potential market reactions.
Adjust your strategy based on these data points to avoid getting caught in unexpected moves.
Example Day Plan
Morning Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release, preferably 2 hours before market open.
Perform your premarket analysis, marking key data release times on your charts.
Market Analysis:
Identify the prevailing trend using H4 and H6 for precise entries, while using H12 for overall market context.
Focus on A side setups for higher probability trades.
Trading Session:
Execute trades based on high probability entries near desired levels, using buy/sell stops.
Adhere to position size limits and manage trades by taking partial profits and leaving runners.
By addressing these areas for improvement and refining your strategy based on these insights, you'll enhance your trading performance and maintain discipline. Keep up the diligent journaling and continuous refinement of your approach.
I ended up breakeven on the day with 3 loser and 1 winner. I did many things wrong today.
(THINGS DONE WRONG)
1. Waking up past my alarm again. Unnaceptable
2. Taking 2 low probability first trades that were away from my desired entry.
3. Taking too heavy of contract size according to my position size calculator
4. Putting a limit order short at the potential support turned resistance against session open volume, when could have placed a buy stop and flipped my trade thesis
5. Covering the trade far too early, just to break even on the day. I could have taken off 2 contracts of the 3 I had, and left 1 runner.
6. Taking 2 irrelevant trades.
7. Not marking the DATA drops on candles.
TELLS that trade would flip
- According to Lance B, the A side of each trade setup is upon the inital trend shift, with each retest become less and less strong of a setup. SO, the initial trend break would be considered the 'A' setup, the break and retest would be considered the 'B' setup, and any retests after that would become C/D etc.
- Upon this initial bearish trend shift on the H4 and H6 charts, The H12, Daily, Weekly ETC still had bullish trending higher lows and higher higher on their candles, my thought process was that, because the H4 and H6 candles shifted bearish, there would be a chance that we can trade into the prior 12 hour low as that would be the bearish draw on liquidity from the H6 bearish trend shift.
- ALSO, I had made the destinction that it would likely have been smarter to implement a 'Default Timeframe' execution model, which means that the H4 trend shift should have provided a daily low draw on liquidity for bears, but because the prior H12 low was never retested for a bearish draw on liquidity, that means that it was a significant contributing factor for todays bullish continuation to the upside. The best thing to do will be to track data on this, and adjust as we go along, because although yesterday the H12 trend happened later in the session, with lower R/R return from the point of entry, it still ended up higher than where the initial entry trigger suggest, closing higher than the point of entry on the day. SO, while it may not provide the best R/R potential from the point of confirmation, it still may insist on a higher probability in terms of directional bias.
This H4 low break and trap also took place yesterday (July 2nd 2024) and had the exact same setup, which is most regarded as the 'Turtle Soup' Setup or a 'Potential Support Turned Resistance', The only difference was that yesterday was an H12 potential bearish trend shift, and that meant it could have swept the prior daily low as a liquidity draw.
Its also very clear that upon the 9:30 session open, the DATA released at 8:15 & 8:30 had been immediately reversed and bought up, so I think it will be beneficial to mark out these data drops on the candle OPEN in the future
(THINGS I DID RIGHT)
- Properly identifying where the 'line in the sand' was OTD, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance'
- Cutting the limit order I had short at the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance' at the correct stoploss of the H6 candle high at that time.
- Taking a trade in the other direction from which I was initially stopped out of
- Placing the correct stoploss on the trade at the 'Line in the sand' OTD on the 2nd trade and sticking to it.
BOTTOM LINE, that line in the sand was the most likely price to be tested upon session open BECAUSE, it would have been the best area for shorts to stab at the trade for a continuation through the lows, and confirmation if broken and held above the the longs.
SO IN THE FUTURE, 'Define the A SIDE SETUP, for the LINE IN THE SAND, on each days trading session
If we took the correct play on todays trading session, we could have profited almost $300 and avoided 2 pointless losses.
Self-Discipline: Opting not to trade after waking up late shows strong self-discipline. Recognizing when you're not in the best state to trade can prevent unnecessary losses.
Reflection: You took the time to analyze the missed opportunity and drew valuable insights from it.
Strategy Insight: Identified that default timeframes provided a better R/R trading opportunity compared to custom timeframes.
Areas for Improvement
Morning Routine: Waking up on time is crucial, especially on days with significant data releases. Ensure your alarm setup is reliable and consider setting multiple alarms if necessary.
Key Takeaways
Adaptability: Understanding that default timeframes may offer better R/R opportunities is valuable. Adjusting your strategy to capitalize on these insights will enhance your trading performance.
Trend Confirmation: Recognizing the importance of H4 timeframe in play while also understanding the role of H6 and H12 for overall market context shows your growing analytical skills.
Action Plan
Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:
Set multiple alarms and place your alarm device at a distance to ensure you wake up on time.
Consider going to bed earlier on trading days with important data releases.
Default Timeframe Focus:
Shift your focus to executing trades on default timeframes for better R/R.
Use H6 and H12 timeframes for overall market context and direction but prioritize H1 and H4 for entry points.
Consistent Review:
Continue to review and analyze missed opportunities. This helps you stay prepared for future similar scenarios.
Keep refining your strategy based on these insights.
Example Day Plan
Morning Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release (preferably 2 hours before market open).
Perform your premarket analysis, focusing on default timeframes.
Market Analysis:
Identify the prevailing trend using H6 and H12 for market context.
Look for high R/R opportunities using H1 and H4 for precise entries.
Trading Session:
Execute trades based on your refined strategy, prioritizing default timeframes.
Avoid trading if you miss your morning routine to maintain discipline.
By incorporating these insights and adjustments, you can enhance your trading performance and stay disciplined in your approach. Keep up the good work with your journaling and continuous improvement.
NO TRADE DAY for me.
I woke up at 10:45, slept past my alarm, and I dont think Im going to take any trades on the day, because I missed the best opportunity.
Instead, I will post a picture of the long opportunity presented OTD, that happened just prior to the 9:30 data release on inflation
This trade was basically immediately ITM and experienced almost no drawdown upon entry.
THINGS DONE WRONG
- Woke up late (Should be up at least 1 hour in the future prior to data releases)
THINGS DONE CORRECT
- Deciding not to take any trades on the day after waking up late
One thing that I noticed on this trade is that the default timeframes provided a higher R/R trading opportunity compared to my custom timeframes in terms on trend.
The H4 timeframe was the timeframe in play, and had I waited for H6 and H12 confirmation, I would have got a significantly lower R/R for the trade.
With that being said, I think that H6 & H12 can be used in specific scenarios for overall market context and direction, but I am starting to think that once I have reference from the H6 & H12 charts, to look for the lowest timeframe entries for the draw on liquidity.
I am really enjoying this candle high/candle low & trend trading strategy, its very simple, and seems to be performing well conceptually.
STRATEGY TWEEKS
* ENTRIES WILL ONLY BE PERFORMED ON DEFAULT TIMEFRAMES TO CAPTURE BIGGER R/R TRADES.
Identified Liquidity and Trend: You correctly identified the draw on liquidity and the bearish trend shift on the 2-hour timeframe.
Entry Execution: Entered the trade without emotional involvement once you got the H2 low break confirmation.
Risk Management: Set a stop loss at the 2-hour bar high, allowing for some drawdown without getting stopped out prematurely.
Trade Patience: Let the trade play out even during drawdown, which is a significant aspect of disciplined trading.
Position Sizing: Used the correct position size to manage risk effectively.
Market Preparation: Woke up early to get a solid read on the market, showing dedication to your premarket routine.
Areas for Improvement
Risk/Reward Optimization: Consider tighter R/R by taking H1 candle low breaks instead of H2. This could provide higher rewards with manageable risk.
Trade Management: You could have managed the trade longer using a 2-minute chart/trail stop, potentially increasing your profit.
Platform Synchronization: Address the lag between TOS and Tradovate to ensure better trade management.
Key Takeaways
Adaptation: While you made a conservative choice to lock in early profit, reviewing this decision helps refine your strategy for future trades.
Continuous Improvement: Your self-reflection and journaling demonstrate a commitment to continuous improvement, which is crucial for long-term success.
Strategy Refinement: Considering the use of default timeframes only for trading executions can streamline your approach and provide more consistent results.
Action Plan
Fine-Tune Entry Strategy: Experiment with H1 candle low breaks for a tighter risk/reward profile. Track and compare results with H2 breaks to determine which works better for your strategy.
Improve Trade Management: Implement a trailing stop strategy on the M2 chart for managing trades. Practice this approach in a simulated environment to build confidence.
Platform Synchronization: Investigate the lag issue between TOS and Tradovate. Ensure both platforms are synchronized to avoid premature exits or missed opportunities.
Review and Reflect: Continue your daily journaling and review sessions. Focus on both successful trades and areas for improvement to refine your strategy continuously.
By implementing these steps, you can enhance your trading strategy, manage risk more effectively, and potentially achieve better results. Keep up the disciplined approach and continuous learning.
I have a photo of the actual trade that I took, but the tags were based on the 'Trade Of The Day' Long Setup
Refer back to this in the future.
I took this trade at 9:15 in the premarket when I seen the shift in trend on a multi timeframe perspective/with a bearish trend shift on the 2 hour. I figured the draw on liquidity would most likely aim for the daily low(PML) that was created for the 9:30 session. I set my stoploss at the 2 hour bar high to give myself some wiggle room, which turned out to be a good option, because the trade did put me in some drawtime from the time of entry, and had I made my stoploss any tighter, I most likely would have been stopped out. The trade netted me around a 1.3R, which was fine for me, as it was my first trade on this evaluation, and I just wanted to lock in a winning trade nice and early, break the ice for this account, and start the evaluation off on a good note. My plan is to stay consistent with daily journaling and fine tuning the strategy. Being the best trader I can be is about the work done after hours, not during trading session which is only used to execute. As im journaling this trade, I am noticing that there was definitely a strong signal that I couldve held the trade longer, as its continuing to flush lower, but I didnt want to deal with any green to red trades, and I also only had 1 contract. Had I gone in with 2, I likely would still be in the trade as its still continuing to drop.
I could have got better R/R had I taken the candle low break of the H1 candle instead of the H2, but I guess it was just slightly higher confirmation. Although, maybe in the future we will implement default timeframes only for trading executions. Maybe with a bit more data we will make the adjustment, for now, we will stick to all timeframes including custom.
Also, there was a slight lag between by TOS and Tradovate accounts, which also caused me to have to cover the trade earlier than I wanted. Had it been perfectly synched, I likely would have caught a way bigger move by managing the trail stop on the 2 minute chart.
(THINGS WE COULD HAVE DONE BETTER)
I could have got tighter risk/reward with an H1 bar low break rather than an H2 break.
I could have stayed in the trade a bit longer by managing the trade on the M2 chart/trailstop
(THINGS I DID WELL)
Locating the correct draw on liquidity (Daily PML, 1D and 2D Low, Bearish Trend Shift)
Executing the trade once I got H2 low break confirmation without emotion involved ( I felt a bit hesitant )
Waking up early to get a solid read on the market (7:30 AM)
Letting the trade play out (Not cutting trade early) while in drawdown
Correct sizing (Allowed me to stay in trade & weather the drawdown)
