Market Expectation: Response to economic data releases (10 AM, 8:30 AM) and market reaction to consumer sentiment and personal income/outlays data.
Trade Plan: Short at the VWAP Upperband with expectation of continuation downward post-data releases.
10:06 AM:
Two losses on trap longs. VWAP action was unproductive.
10:20 AM:
Contemplated M15 entry but decided against it due to poor R/R.
Preference for extremity trades at VWAP bands.
10:49 AM:
Shorted at the area signaled long by the M15 chart.
Marketed short, breakeven OTD.
11:40 AM:
Boring session, stuck in a tight range.
Down $56, aiming to get green OTD.
12:43 PM:
Frustrated by false signals and missed opportunities.
Could have been profitable if long at LOD liquidity sweep.
1:38 PM:
Passed evaluation despite multiple chop outs OTD.
Noted necessity for deep journaling to avoid future stop outs.
Recognized over-risking, but trading with weekly profits.
Key Points:
Right:
Accurate identification of bearish signals and alignment with economic data.
Entry aligned with multiple timeframe confirmation (H12, M15, M30).
Recognized importance of journaling and addressing chop outs.
Wrong:
Multiple stop outs and false signals due to choppy VWAP action.
Over-risking despite weekly profits.
Missed key liquidity sweep long opportunity.
New Rules Learned:
Implement a rule for avoiding chop outs.
Prioritize order blocks alignment:
Shorts: Higher timeframe order blocks should be above lower timeframe order blocks.
Longs: Higher timeframe order blocks should be below lower timeframe order blocks.
Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded.
Overall Summary
Strengths:
Strong market analysis and ability to identify traps.
Effective use of playbook trade principles.
Recognized need for risk management and journaling.
Weaknesses:
Struggled with choppy price action and false signals.
Over-risking and missing key opportunities.
Need for better confirmation signals to avoid multiple stop outs.
New Key Rules Learned:
Reassess timing and confirmation signals before re-entering trades.
Incorporate additional data points to strengthen the thesis.
Implement order block alignment rules for better trade confirmation.
Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded to manage risk.
Overall Performance:
The week involved a mix of strong analysis and execution issues due to choppy market conditions.
Important lessons on trade confirmation, risk management, and order block alignment learned for future improvement.
9:29AM. Looking for longs off open atm, would write more detailed but I have 30 seconds.
10:06AM. Ive taken 2 loses on trap longs. Garbage action at the VWAP.
10:20AM. This is seriously awful price action. I am currently following a rule of going to the next timeframe over if my entry fails. So far I have been stopped out of M2 & M5. I am contemplating M15, but I honestly dont think I want to take the trade. I would prefer an extremity at the VWAP bands at this point. Im thinking to trust a VWAP trade for the 3rd time would be a mistake, also because the R/R would put me at negative R Multiple from the 15M chart.
10:49AM. I took a short at the area where the M15 chart signaled long. I wasnt comfortable taking the trade after that type of trade stopped me out 2 times prior. Also, because of the negative R Multiple, I just marketed short and it got me bascially at breakeven OTD.
11:40AM. Pretty boring trading session, stuck in a tight range, chopping the VWAP with no extremities trade opportunities. Down around $56 on the session. Looking to just get green OTD so I can walk.
12:43 What a stupid fucking trading session. Shit is so fucking annoying. Just constantly giving me flase signals over and over again. If I just took the fucking long trade at the sweep of liquidity lower at LOD, id be up on fucking session and could have walked already.
1:38PM Passed my evaluation, multiple chop outs OTD, and we will have to do some deep journaling this week to figure out how to avoid that many stop outs in the future. But we put our money where our mouth was. Took on a bit too much risk to be honest. But we were playing with some profits on the week.
It doesnt matter how much profit we made OTW in theory, because we are against trailing drawdown.
Trading the M30 trend shift would have resulted in the least amount of drawdown upon entry for the trading session.
I also could have avoided squeeze loses but waiting for the break below the upperband, in which this case, we were trending above from the area we broke out of.
I also think that following the rule of going to the next timeframe higher upon each stopout, would really help with mitigating my risk.
This was a very difficult trading session due to many mixed signals on my days VWAP. I was thinking long, which was the first initial move. I just got chopped out of all of my variation signals. And the moment I tried to trade against the range, I got squeezed. But ultimately, the trade OTD that worked was off of yesterdays orderblock signals, from M30 orderblocks down to the M2 Orderblocks. That was in confluence with another H12 bullish trend attempt and fakeout for a move lower. The only difference with todays setup was that the H12 candle didnt sweep the Buy Side Liquidity from the orderblocks presented before it dropped. Thats why this action was so tricky. It was a fight for price the entire time, and my trend shift signals kept going off, I will have to implement rules that keep me from getting chopped out like this in the future.
The short rejection came from the prior day 15 Minute Bearish Orderblock. The orderblock sequence was larger timeframe orderblocks lower to higher. As the timeframes granually got shorter as the orderblocks went higher, (as it should during a short trade) this M15 bearish orderblock was ABOVE the 5 minute and 2 minute bearish orderblocks. In the future, I will have to make sure that I implement it as a rule, that if there is an inconsistency with orderblocks in relation to their location, that will be the new A+ orderblock rule.
I will make it official
(New Trading Rule For Orderblocks)
Order blocks that come from shorts, tend to come from lower timeframes the higher the orderblock
Orderblocks that come from longs, tend to come from lower timeframes the lower the orderblock
Our new rule is
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframeframe is above an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a short, that will be our short signal***
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframe is below an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a long, that will be our long signal.***
NOW THAT YOU ARE FUNDED, YOU **MUST MUST MUST** NOT TRADE MORE THAN 1 MICRO ON ANY GIVEN TRADE FOR **AT LEAST** THE FIRST 10 TRADING DAYS OF BEING FUNDED. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT EXECUTE TRADES WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF RISK YOU HAVE USED TO PASS THIS EVALUATION. OUR MAIN PRIORITY IS SIMPLY GETTING OUR FIRST PAYOUT. MAKING TRADING BECOME REAL, SEEING SOMETHING IN RETURN FOR THE YEARS OF HARD WORK AND DEDICATION YOU HAVE PUT TOWARDS THIS CRAFT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF, AND YOU DESERVE IT.
IF YOU TAKE 1 MICRO CONTRACT WITH YOUR SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE YOUR TRADING FREQUENCY, BUILD THE CONFIDENCE FOR HITTING THE BUY OR SELL BUTTON AND GETTING RID OF FEAR AND HESITATION, HELPING YOU FINE TUNE YOUR STRATEGY IN THE PROCESS SO THAT YOU CAN HELP DEVELOP YOUR PLAYBOOK AND TRADING RULES.
WITH GOOD TRADES YOU SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MAKE AROUND 250-300 BUCKS TRADING A DAY. AND AFTER THE 10 DAY PERIOD, THAT IS A 2500 PAYOUT, 5K A MONTH,
Pattern: Bullish Pre Market, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Prior Day High & Low Draw on Liquidity (DOL), Monthly VWAP
Trading Notes:
Pre-Market Analysis (8:38 AM)
Observed an overnight gap above the prior month's low, indicating potential continuation higher due to in-the-money buy orders from Friday.
Daily VWAP trending through its upper band.
Monthly VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M chart showed alignment with prior day's high and low liquidity draws.
Bias: Expecting a liquidity sweep above the prior day's high followed by a failure.
No major economic news anticipated; expected selling into the open.
First Trade (9:45 AM)
Short trade on the 2-minute chart, stopped out.
Maintained the same thesis; looked for re-entry on the 5-minute chart.
Second Trade (M5 Re-Entry)
Re-entered on the M5 chart based on Monthly VWAP Trend and Variation shift to the downside.
Target: Weekly DOL after sweeping prior day's high DOL.
Thesis: Expected overnight longs to cover positions into the open, creating sell-side pressure. Anticipated multiple traps (shorts and longs) to be sprung for a downside move.
This setup was a playbook trade where a prior day close to pre-market open gap gets absorbed and traded against.
Mid-Trade Update (11:30 AM)
Trade entered drawdown but moved in the expected direction.
Covered 1 of the 2 contracts, holding the 2nd for the full Monthly VWAP upper band to lower band move.
End of Day (2:41 PM)
The trade ended negatively.
Targeting the DOL lower on the week and expecting the playbook trade to play out did not work as planned.
Recognized the need to revisit this trade signal for future improvements.
Things Done Right:
Identified and analyzed key support and resistance levels using VWAP and DOL.
Maintained a consistent thesis and adapted to re-enter on a higher timeframe (M5) after being stopped out on a lower timeframe (M2).
Managed risk by covering 1 of the 2 contracts during the trade.
Things Done Wrong:
Initial trade on the 2-minute chart led to an early stop-out.
Targeted a specific weekly DOL that did not play out as anticipated.
The final trade resulted in a loss, indicating a need to reassess the trade signal and entry criteria.
New Key Rules Learned:
Reassess Entry Criteria: Review and potentially adjust entry criteria when initial trades are stopped out to avoid repeated drawdowns.
Signal Validation: Further validate trade signals to improve the accuracy of entries, especially for playbook trades.
Risk Management: Continue refining risk management strategies, including partial covers and setting realistic targets.
By analyzing these notes, you can refine your strategy and rules, focusing on improving your trade entries, managing risk more effectively, and validating your trade signals for better future performance.
Its currently 8:38 AM as im beginning todays journaling session. And right off of the bat, there is an overnight gap above the prior month low. Which tells me that the buy orders hitting the tape on friday, could very well be in the money for todays trading session for a continuation higher. And since the 1D VWAP is trending through its upperband. I decided to take the next deivation, which actually happened to be the Month VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M. There is also a draw on liquidity for both the high and the low of the prior day. And it aligns pretty well with the Month VWAP bands. So what Im thinking is going to happen, is that there will be a liquidity sweep above the prior day high, and we will see a failure, after the liquidity is swept. That is my current bias. There is no major economic news today either, and I would figure that there should be some selling into the open.
9:45, was just stopped out of an opening short trade on the 2 minute chart, still have the same thesis, will re enter if presented on the M5 chart
I re entered on the M5 Month VWAP Trend And Variation shift to the downside. Targeting the weekly dol after the prior day high dol was swept. I am currently risking another squeeze to grab more buy stops on what I believe is a manipulation trade up. My thesis is that the overnight longs will be covering their positions into the open session here, creating sellside pressure, and that the manipulation up, will have trapped early opening shorts, and also create a false breakout to the upside for longs, trapping them on the way back down. So, theres multiple traps involved in this setup. And it follows our playbook trade, backed by data, where a prior day close to pre market open gap gets absorbed and traded against. So, we will see what happens. Ive made more money to the downside as well than my long trades. If it doesnt work, it is what it is.
11:30, The trade put me into some drawdown, but It is currently in my direction, and I covered 1 of the 2 contracts. Going to attempt to hold the 2nd one for the full Month VWAP Upperband to Lowerband move.
2:41PM Red fucking day. What else is new...
I was targeting the DOL lower on the week, and for the playbook trade to play out, and it didnt. Will have to revisit this incorrect trade signal in the future.
9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
General Observations:
Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.
Wrong:
Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.
Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.
Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.
4o
9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.
11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick.
3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.
Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future.
Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops.
Noticed a gap between the prior day close and premarket open, below the 1 Day VWAP lower band, indicating bearish displacement.
Attempted a long position off the next VWAP band which failed, reinforcing a bearish trend shift.
Trade Execution:
Shorted the PML (Pre-Market Low) due to clear stop-loss placement and strong downside pressure.
Anticipated a trend day given the downside action on the weekly chart and the market being in a discount area on multiple timeframes.
Observed zero drawdown from entry, indicating strong downside pressure and a well-timed entry.
10:40 AM:
The market continued making lower lows with no clear downside target due to distant DOL (Draw on Liquidity).
The VWAP and 21 EMA on the M2 chart indicated a consistent downtrend.
Entry experienced no retests, further validating the strength of the position.
12:30 PM:
Closed the trade with a profit of over $500, bringing the account over the $1K mark.
Decision to lock in profits was based on a successful morning session and strong performance.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Effective premarket analysis identified key gaps and trends, leading to a high-probability short setup.
Correctly identified the PML as a strategic entry point with minimal risk.
The trade execution was well-timed with no drawdown, indicating strong market understanding.
Wrong:
Initial hesitation to confirm the bearish trend shift earlier could have improved entry precision.
Outcome: Successfully executed a short trade based on premarket analysis and trend confirmation, resulting in a profit of over $500. The strategy of letting the trade run with stops at session highs proved effective, and the consistent analysis and execution aligned with the identified patterns and signals.
Overall Summary: The trading session was marked by a disciplined approach, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis to confirm a bearish bias. The entry at the PML was well-placed, experiencing no drawdown and indicating strong downside pressure. The decision to lock in profits at $500 was prudent, demonstrating effective trade management and risk control. This trade reinforces the importance of thorough premarket analysis and strategic entry points, contributing to the overall success of the trading session.
10:05 AM. So im currently in a trade, I shorted the PML and its in the money, during the premarket session, I noticed a gap between the prior day close, and the pre market open. And this was under a key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, signaling clear displacement below the key band. I tried a long off of the next VWAP band, and that broke. It was after that loss that I confirmed the shift in direction, when I could have confirmed it after the gap. Also, I could have set an entry where my stop was on the overnight long entry attempt.
The reason I shorted the PML is because it was the only area upon open, that I could see a clear stoploss placement, so I used it as my entry. Im currently not sure how low this is going to drop, as we hit the first wk DOL in the overnight session. But the next day, week, and month lower DOL, is very far away, so I honestly removed a target to the downside, and im just letting it drop. With this type of downside action, on weekly chart moves, these are usually where we get trend days. Also, we are technically in a discount area, on multiple timeframes, so usually when that happens, no one wants to short, because it appears we are low in the range, and also, no one wants to long, because the sellside pressure is so strong, these tend to be the days where everyone just sits on the sidelines and misses big moves.
Another strong signal for this short, was the I went under no drawdown from the time of entry, which signals how strong the downside pressure really is. Im already up 200 points.
Also, a key tell that the downtrend would continue from the gap, is that it also changed the direction of the H12 trend, which is obvously half the amount of time of a full daily candle, so it usually confirms directional bias.
And, on the daily chart, with the prior day close, suggested that the next target higher would be the prior day high wick, and upon the opening of the next day gap, it shifted the daily trend, as the prior day low was broken, and suggested a draw on liquidity at the 2 day prior bar low, near the lower weekly draw on liquidity. And the gap created earlier in the week, off of that chop out 30 day fibonacci trade I took, has been completely absorbed now at the time of writing this.
So overall, this gap between the prior day close and premarket open was a major tell, and can act as displacement to confirm breaks of major levels. It happened at the beginning week gap, claiming the prior month low, which was the turtle soup type of trade that I was looking for.
I think for now I will make a new rule, that if the H12 trend is going against the VWAP Upper or Lowerband Buy Or Sell signals, than I can not take that trade.
My current plan for this trade, is to literally just let it drop for the duration of the trading session. With stops at session HOD, which I dont think will be triggered. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think Im willing to take the bet, as I should be increasing my risk slightly with my journaling data, and because we are now 3 plus weeks into this evaluation. But, the VWAP and the Lowerband are consistenly downtrending, which I take as a continuation sell signal, and massive downside volume.
10:40 AM. Still making lower lows, still no downside target, becuase the next DOL is very far away. Still in a consistent downtrend on the VWAP, and consistently holding below the 21 EMA on M2 chart. The interesting part about my entry, is that not only did it incur zero drawdown, but it also didnt experience any retests of my price. This strongly signals a great entry price.
12:30PM i just got back from a walk. decided to lock it up. im happy with todays profits over $500 dollars. its put my account over the 1K mark
Initiated a short position at the break of the prior day’s low (PML) during the premarket session.
Noticed a gap between the prior day's close and the premarket open, indicating a potential shift in direction.
Recognized displacement below the key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, confirming a bearish bias.
After a failed long trade attempt off the VWAP band, confirmed the shift in direction and shorted the PML as it was the only clear stop-loss placement.
Trade Execution:
The trade was immediately profitable, indicating strong downside pressure with no drawdown from the entry point.
Decided to let the trade run without a specific downside target, anticipating a trend day based on the weekly chart moves and the strong sell-side pressure.
Market Behavior:
Observed consistent lower lows with no retests of the entry price, reinforcing the strength of the entry.
The VWAP and Lowerband continued to downtrend, acting as a continuation sell signal with massive downside volume.
Outcome:
Took a walk and decided to lock in profits upon return, closing the trade with over $500 in profit, pushing the account balance over $1,000.
Additional Notes:
End-of-Day Reflection:
Achieved the biggest profit day on the account, totaling over $1,200.
Increased trading frequency based on the notes suggesting the VWAP trade as an "easy money trade."
Faced a critical moment with a VWAP dip buy that came close to blowing the account but was saved by the monthly VWAP support.
Acknowledged the risk of trading too heavily, with a full position size of 16+ contracts, and the importance of not over-leveraging with a trailing drawdown.
Key Takeaways:
Successful in capitalizing on the VWAP patterns and adhering to the identified signals.
Realized the importance of managing position size and avoiding excessive risk.
Future trades will be limited to entering 1 micro at a time and building positions incrementally to manage risk effectively.
Key Lessons:
Right:
Accurately identified the VWAP lower band as a support level, leading to a well-timed short entry.
Trusted the VWAP signals and followed the identified patterns, resulting in significant profits.
Wrong:
Took on excessive risk by trading too heavily with 16+ contracts, nearly risking the account.
Averaging down to improve price, although it worked out this time, it is not a sustainable strategy given the trailing drawdown.
Overall Summary: This trade highlighted the effectiveness of using VWAP patterns and signals to identify high-probability trades. While the execution led to significant profits, it also underscored the importance of risk management and the dangers of over-leveraging. The adjustment to trading frequency and position sizing will be crucial for sustaining future success and protecting the account from significant drawdowns.
Today I made a great deal of money, my biggest day on this account since I began, in total, I made over $1200 dollars. and I did it in part because I did tweak my 2 trade rule today, and I actually spent most of the day involved in a trade, and its because I realize that I need to pick up my trading frequency on the trade that has been suggested from my notes, and that is my VWAP trade. It seems to currently be my 'easy money trade'. And I just decided to keep taking the signals and trusting the outcome.
I will same, I came waaay to close to blowing the account today, and that was with a VWAP dip buy, that was saved by the Month VWAP. It wound up sweeping the 9:30 Open Low, taking the long stops from the morning session, and then ripping in my direction. It really was a make or break moment for this account, and I nearly lost it. I was waaay to heavy in size, at full position was around 16 plus contracts. I can never do that again. I was averaging down to improve my price, and although it went in my direction, thats besides the point. You simply cant trade that size with trailing drawdown ever.
So therefor, If I want to increase my trading frequency, I can only enter 1 Micro at a time, and build a position with 1 Micro at a time. With this particular trade, I was slapping the trade with 2 micros at a time. And its too heavy.
The only way I can add is with A side setups, and confirmations through multiple timeframes.
Setup: Based on the 30D low to high Fibonacci (61.8% level), entry was supported by the lower DOL (Daily Open Low) and demand entries on the M1 chart.
Second Trade:
Outcome: Loss.
Mistake: Entered after observing large buy orders, which led to a sudden market drop. The decision to size in more aggressively and the resulting market movement caused a loss.
Issue: The trade could have been more profitable if the exit had been executed at the top, instead of getting faked out by the tape.
Setup Analysis
Initial Entry:
Reasoning: Entry was based on a significant imbalance and the next draw on liquidity being the prior month's low. The setup aimed to capitalize on a potential “monthly turtle soup” scenario, where early longs were swept out.
Outcome: First trade was successful, validating the use of the setup.
Subsequent Entry:
Reasoning: Aimed for a continuation based on the earlier setup, but market dynamics changed with a massive buyer’s presence and subsequent market tanking.
Issue: Lack of exit strategy led to unnecessary losses.
Key Insights
Tape Reading: Relying solely on the tape can be misleading. It’s essential to align entries with broader market context and confirmation from other indicators.
Setup Testing: Testing new setups like the monthly turtle soup provides valuable data for refining future entries.
Fibonacci Levels: The 30D low to high Fibonacci levels have shifted. The 61.8% bounce is no longer relevant, but marking previous levels can aid in tracking future reversals.
Future Considerations
Liquidity Zones: Continue to monitor significant liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence areas (e.g., 90D 38.2% and 30D 78.6% Fibonacci levels) for potential bounces.
Exit Strategy: Develop a clearer exit strategy to avoid losses due to market volatility or misleading tape signals.
Refinement: Adjust trading strategies based on ongoing analysis of setups, particularly in identifying and managing risk more effectively.
Action Items
Track Setups: Continue to track and refine the use of Fibonacci levels and liquidity zones based on historical performance.
Monitor Tape: Use tape reading as a supplementary tool rather than the primary basis for trade decisions. Validate tape signals with other indicators.
Refine Strategy: Incorporate the lessons learned about entry and exit strategies into the trading plan.
Updated Checklist for Trade Entries
Setup Confirmation:
Validate with multi-timeframe analysis.
Check Fibonacci levels and liquidity zones.
Execution:
Prefer high probability setups with clear entry and exit criteria.
Avoid sizing in aggressively based on tape reading alone.
Exit Strategy:
Define exit points before entering trades.
Use trailing stops or predefined targets to lock in profits and minimize losses.
Post-Trade Analysis:
Review trades for compliance with strategy.
Adjust tactics based on market behavior and performance data.
I took 2 trades, the first was a solid winner, the second one could have been avoided, by taking the profit at the top, rather than sizing in & getting faked out by the tape. I seen massive buy orders coming in, and the moment I pressed the buy button, the market tanked. It was likely a big buyer that was building a position that could potentially take off next week.
The entry I decided to take was based on a massive imbalance for the next draw on liquidity lower, which is the prior month low, which is very far away. And the break of a prior month low, with a 20-30D fibonacci long entry. My thought process was that there is alot of potential for the early longs to have been swept out of the marketplace with stops below the prior month low, and we could have seen a monthly turtle soup entry. This was my first time testing the entry, and after the move chooses a direction, I will have more data on more confirmation for the setup.
The 30D low the high has changed with a slightly higher low now after the following day, so the 61.8% bounce is no longer in play. But i marked the prior 30D low to high, so that if the market does happen to reverse in the future, I can track the timeframe in which the entry occured to avoid senseless losses in the future.
For now, we have confluence between the 90D 38.2% fibonacci & the 30D 78.6% fibonacci, so with liquidity drawing lower, I think it is likely that this confluence area will be the next potential bounce play.
I guess the takeaway will be for the loss of profits on this trading day. DONT SOLELY TRUST THE TAPE.
Woke up past my alarm but identified a break and retest setup which aligned with my trading strategy.
The pre-market open served as support, which broke, and then retested as resistance.
Entered the short trade as the price moved through the overnight gap between the prior day's close and the pre-market open.
Targeted the next draw on liquidity, which was the weekly low, following the direction of the prevailing trend.
Observed that using the M5 chart provided better entry opportunities with minimal drawdown, and high hit rate.
Noted that the draw on liquidity approach has been effective in predicting the next target.
Insights and Strategy Adjustments:
Plan to monitor potential bounces at the 20D (Month Low) and recent liquidity sweeps at the weekly low in future sessions.
If bulls fail to hold the level, the next target could be the prior month low, which is a significant distance away.
Consider waiting for prior order block entries on smaller timeframes if a bullish trend shift occurs off the monthly level.
Realized the importance of sizing correctly and the impact it could have had on the trade's profitability. Missed an opportunity to size appropriately due to waking up late and acting on gut instinct.
Emphasized the importance of proper candle timeframe alignment for better trade timing, reducing premature entries, and ensuring high accuracy.
Performance and Reflection:
The trade went in my favor, and the setup was validated by the break and retest pattern.
Noted that waiting for the right candle timeframe alignment to provide liquidity has been beneficial for accurate trade timing.
Identified the need for better pre-market preparation to avoid missing sizing opportunities and maximize trading potential.
Updated Trading Rules and Checklist:
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Draw on Liquidity, Inverse FVG, and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, Break & Retest, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability order blocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
Entry Size and Risk Management:
Ensure proper position sizing using the position size calculator before entering a trade.
Avoid trading based on gut instinct and ensure all trades align with the predefined strategy and setup criteria.
Please provide the next trade entry and notes for further analysis and refinement.
4o
I woke up past my alarm clock, but I seen a trade setup present itself, and it went in my favor.
This was a break and retest setup/support turned resistance play for the premarket open serving as support in the premarket, which broke, went through the overnight gap between the prior day close and pre market open, and I took it for further downside toward the next draw on liquidity which was the weekly low. As that is the direction the market was still trending.
Draw on liquidity has worked well thus far with predicting the next target for me, and its a very simplistic approach of where the trend is likely to go next due to prior price action trend with multi-timeframe analysis.
Another I noted, was that the M5 chart may provide slightly better opportunities for entry for the time being, due to the higher timeframe levels being presented at the moment, and it appears the M5 variations provided no drawdown upon entry with high hit rate, so for now I will execute on that timeframe unless the data suggests otherwise.
Going into tomorrows trading session, I will be watching for a potential bounce at the 20D (Month Low) and for the most recent sweep on liquidity at the weekly low, to potentially hold for a bounce. If the bulls fail to hold the level tomorrow, I would expect that the next DOL is the prior month low, which is quite far away. There is also a 61.8% retracement level between the 30D Low to High. And since the range will likely be very large from a bearish to bullish trend shift, it may be smart to wait for prior orderblock entries on the smaller timeframes, if we do happen to get that bullish trend shift off of this monthly level.
I should have hit the trade I entered today with more size, but because my alarm clock didnt go off, I was unable to properly size, and because I went off gut instinct, I only took 1 contract. If I sized correctly, it likely could have been around an $800-$900 trading day.
Another thing that has been helping tremendously is waiting for the proper candle timeframe alignment for the move, when that specific candle is actually offer the buy side or sell side liquidity that Im expecting, I think that is the best way to actually time my trades. Other then getting in too early and getting stopped out with death by 1000 cuts. And while providing that liquidty, it also provides a trend shift & variation to ensure high accuracy & the A+ side of a setup.
Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.
Trade of the Day Setup:
Premarket Analysis:
Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
Session Analysis:
The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
VWAP Settings and Observations:
Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
No trade day.
This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.
It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.
During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against.
Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries.
Slept in late due to lack of response from APEX regarding trading issues.
Missed trading opportunities as a result.
Trade of the Day Setup:
VWAP Analysis:
Today's setup was a straightforward VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short on the M1 timeframe.
The 2 Day Anchored VWAP did not present any extremes for a short entry.
Insights:
Plan to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines for identifying high probability trade entries.
Recognized the importance of being prepared and at the computer early, especially before significant data drops.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations and VWAP bands for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands or prior significant levels (Daily Open, Previous High/Low).
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Another no trade day, I slept in late because I never got an early response from APEX on the inability to trade. And although its likely made me miss alot of opportunity this week, I will be at the computer early tomorrow before data.
With that being said, todays trade of the day was a simple VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short off of the 1 Day M1 timeframe. The 2 Day Anchored VWAP didnt provide any extremitiy to either of the bands to short.
But, this week has provided some insight, that it will likely be smart to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines in the future for high probability trade entries.
Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).
Future Strategy Adjustments:
Execution Timeframe:
When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.
Execution Data:
More data should suggest the best possible approach.
Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.
Mental Trade:
Mental Long Entry:
Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
The trade wound up failing.
It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.
Setup Classifications:
A Side Setup: Initial move.
B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
C Setup: To be defined in the future.
Action Points:
Higher Timeframe Confirmation:
Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.
Execution Timeframe:
Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.
Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:
If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.
Follow Setup Classifications:
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted'
But here is the trade of the day setup.
For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band.
On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.
So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed.
Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD.
There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)
So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.
Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.
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