1. Trend Shifts & Key Price Levels:

• Trend Shift Recognition: You’ve observed that the market experienced a trend shift after the end-of-day sell-off, marking a 2-hour bearish displacement followed by a 30-minute trend shift. Understanding these shifts helped you anticipate a potential continuation to the downside.
• Resistance Levels: There were multiple resistance levels from the overnight session, and while you weren't sure which one would hold best, you identified a key 2-hour bearish fair value gap (FVG) that provided a clear short entry.

2. Profit Target Strategy & Challenges:

• Profit Target Adjustments: You’re revisiting your profit target strategy, reducing them from more extreme levels (e.g., opposing liquidity extremes or VWAP bounce targets) to smaller, more realistic targets. This adjustment is based on your recent struggle with a lower win rate and the fact that larger profit targets have been less effective recently.
• Greed & Trade Management: You acknowledged an issue with holding onto profitable trades due to "greed" and a reluctance to take partial profits, leading to many trades turning from green to red. This behavior has negatively impacted your win rate, and you are focusing on breaking this cycle by taking profits more consistently.

3. Liquidity and Fair Value Gaps:

• Liquidity Level Analysis: You carefully tracked buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels, especially the higher timeframe levels (e.g., 6-hour buy-side liquidity vs. 2-hour buy-side liquidity). You also analyzed price action around the fair value gap (FVG) areas, especially considering the sweep of liquidity levels within these gaps.
• Intraday Fair Value Gaps: You used 1-minute and 5-minute FVGs to identify trade opportunities, particularly during the early part of the session, allowing you to catch a scalp trade. Additionally, you looked for significant confluence of liquidity levels on multiple timeframes to guide your targets.

4. Refinement of Liquidity Sweep Understanding:

• Filtering Liquidity Levels: You refined your approach to filtering liquidity levels. For example, you noticed that the first liquidity level formed during a major price move (like the pre-market low sweep) was more reliable than subsequent liquidity levels. This insight led to a more precise way of analyzing which liquidity levels would likely be swept next.
• Market Structure Shifts: You highlighted the importance of observing market structure shifts on lower timeframes (like 1-minute and 5-minute charts) to determine when liquidity sweep opportunities could be capitalized on.

5. Trade Execution & Management:

• Execution Plan & Targets: You followed a detailed game plan where you targeted 21771.25, which aligned with multiple timeframe confluence (1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute, and 5-minute charts). This target was placed near the pre-market high, a significant liquidity level.
• Discretionary Adjustments: At the time of your trade, you considered adjusting your exit at the first profit target (21758.25) based on market action and feedback from your strategy.

6. Learning from the Experience:

• Improved Liquidity Level Application: The trade reinforced your observation that higher timeframe liquidity levels (like the 6-hour buy-side) were more reliable, while lower timeframe levels (like 1-minute and 5-minute) could provide more aggressive market structure shifts and higher-probability liquidity sweeps.
• Focus on More Conservative Profit Targets: Lowering your profit target expectations appears to be an ongoing adjustment to improve your win rate. You’re moving away from extreme targets and focusing on more achievable profit-taking strategies.

Summary of Insights:

• Trend shifts and liquidity gaps are central to your approach. You identify them through careful chart analysis (especially multi-timeframe liquidity levels and FVGs).
• Profit-taking strategies are being reworked, with an emphasis on reducing greed and focusing on smaller, more achievable targets.
• Liquidity sweep understanding has become more refined, with an understanding that initial liquidity levels (e.g., the first sweep after a major move) are more reliable than subsequent ones.
• Trade execution is structured with a clear game plan, but flexibility for adjusting targets based on real-time price action is also key.

Areas for Focus:

• Refine trade management, particularly around taking profits at more structured levels rather than waiting for full target hits.
• Continue adjusting profit target expectations based on recent market conditions, especially focusing on the lower timeframe liquidity sweeps and market structure shifts.

8:06 AM. Yesterday, the market closed after an end of day sell of, and this prompted a 2 hour trend shift, which began with the turn of the 30 minute trend.

When analyzing the overnight session, I figured that it was likely that price could continue to the downside, but there were multiple potential resistance levels, and I didnt have a solid idea of which one would hold the best, but as it stands, the 2 hour bearish displacement and fair value gap (black shaded area) that was formed provided a pretty swift short entry that could have been used with a limit order.

I created a fibonacci tool, and Im just simply following a standard deviation profit target projection of 1R, 2R, and 2.5R for now, so that I can just take the low hanging fruit base run hits, and try to find a way to increase whcih win rate which has been a massive problem in the past few months. I went from a 55-65% win rate, to 20-30% win rate, and I have been really struggling to increase it. 

The only thing that I could think of at the moment to fix this issue is to lower my profit targets, which have tended to be at the opposing extremitys such as a sell side run to buy side move, and vica versa. Or in other cases, a VWAP lowerband bouce, with a target to upperband. 

In septemeber, profit targets like that were constantly hitting, but from the turn of october, novemeber and now december, most of my profit targets arent reached, and I have far too many trades going from green to red. I have also noticed alot of the traders that are claiming to make money seem to be taking partials at 1R, 2R, 3R etc and the trades are pretty cookie cutter. 

I wanted to approach trading with a more open mind, and really try to hold my winners, but this mindset just really hasent been working lately. It works extremely well in massive uptrend markets, but it just isnt right now.

I have also noticed I have this issue with not wanting to cover profits, I guess it would be considered greed. And I think its because I feel I work so hard to get an accurate entry, that when Im finally in the money, I just dont want to let the position go. ANd this has resulted in alot of trades going from green to red, lower win rate etc. And I have to try to find a way to break this cycle.

8:22 AM. Analyzing price right now, it is currently testing the prior all time high, from 3 days prior. after it has moved from the short entry at the 2 hour bearish fair value gap, and we currently have data in 8 minutes, which are Jobless Claims, and PPI which are both red folder news events, and we also have EIA natural Gas Report green folder data at 10:30AM during the NY trading session. 

With that being said, there are multiple different scenarios that it seems can play out right now. For one, the prior all time high could hold and we could see a bounce, or obviously it can fail. 

Projecting how far price will continue to the upside or the downside currently feels like a coin flip. but at around 9AM, im going to redraw my buy side and sell side liquidity. 

So far, from the overnight session, the short entry provided which came from the 2 hour bearish fair value gap, has a fibonacci drawn from the all time high, and the 21767.25 level, which is the high of the 3rd candle in the fair value gap variation, and I have standard deviation price targets at 1R, 2R, and 2.5R etc. I also have a 50% purple line drawn, which is the equilibrium of the 2 hour buy side and 2h sell side levels. 

So this market is currently trading within that range. And I am currently anticipating the possiblility that at minimum, we go tag that 50% equillibrium area. 

If i was in the short a few months ago, my profit target would be the entirety of the range to go all the way back down at the extremity of the opposing liquidity, but like I said, those targets havent been working well. 

Im now going to have CHATGPT take these notes, and help me further analyze the charts after snapping a screenshot, so that it can help me come up with a detailed pre market gameplan, and a trading plan for the session. 

8:56AM. I am currently redrawing some of the buy side, sell side liquidity levels going into the 9:30 trading session, as well as the orderblocks created. One thing Im noticing, is that the most recent 6 hour buy side liquidty level that was created in the overnight session, is a higher timeframe buy side liquidity level created, than the one at the all time high which is a 2 hour buy side liquidty level. We are also tapping into the black shaded area of the chart, which is all of the liquidity from the 6 hour chart as well, which is the fair value gap from the 3 candle variation and move higher yesterday, and all of the liquidity provided inside it.

There are times where sometimes all of the liquidty is swept inside of fair value gaps, and they act as potential inverses. But I really dont know which scenario is most likely to play out between a bounce somewhere to continue higher, or a move all the way back down, so i am going to need the help from chatgpt to help me analyze the highest probability trade setup for the 9:30 trading session, based on the newly drawn levels, and price actions that been formed from the screenshot of the chart at the turn of the 9:00AM candle. 

10:41AM. So im currently in a long entry, I abided by the gameplan of the analysis from myself and CHATGPT. Because I was anticipating a sweep of the premarket low, I was able to identify a 1 minute bearish fair value gap opportunity counter the expected trend, so I was able to catch a morning scalp trade from the bearish fair value gap into the pre market low, sell side liquidity sweep. 

Then I noticed a hold of the 50% mark of the 2 hour buy side and sell side range, with a 1 minute and 5 minute market structure shift to the upside. 

ALSO, an important notice if this trade actually fully plays out, is that I have now potentially found a way to disregard false buy side and sell side liquidity levels.

and it seems the best way to do that, is to take the etremity buy side or sell side liquidity level from the firsst initial move, and disregard any of the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th + liquidity levels that may be created on the same timeframe and lower timeframes. 

For example, the current target that I have placed at the moment is 21771.25 which is directly below the pre market high level.

The reason I have this level as a target is because, when I shift from the 2 hour to the 1 hour timeframe, its the next protected highest high, and it is confluence with the 30M/15M/ and 5M because there are multiple lower high liquidity levels that have been formed on the 1 hour, 30 minute, 15 minute and 5 minute charts, that are inbetween the extremity points of these liquidity areas. 

Also, this would infer that because of the sweep of the premarket low, those we very low timeframe liquidity areas (1 minute & 5 minute) whcih could be a possible indication in the future, of high probability liquidity sweep levels that can be taken advantage of on the lower timeframes (1 minute & 5 minute) if an aggressive market structure shift takes place. 

1:04PM. Im still sitting long in the trade, there were multiple bullish fair value gaps that were created from the displacement higher after the premarket low liquidity sweep. But as of now, it tapped into the 5 minute FVG, the 1 minute is still untapped, and the trade is currently heading higher. Im still targeting 21771.25, but am considering taking off at the first profit target of 21758.25 as chatgpt suggested.