22374.25: This level was swept during the London session and is a critical liquidity level.
22325: Another potential liquidity sweep occurred here, leading to a possible bullish reversal structure.
22410.5 (2H BSL): This level above current price represents a draw on liquidity and a potential upside target.
Market Structure:
5-Minute Chart (Left Panel): After sweeping 22374.25 and 22325, price likely shifted to a bullish structure with higher lows being formed.
30-Minute Chart (Middle Panel): Price rejected downward momentum post-sweep and is consolidating under 22410.5, which could act as a magnet for liquidity.
2-Hour Chart (Right Panel): Price is in a broader bullish context, following the strong move up from the 22076.25 level on the prior day.
Current Context:
We are consolidating above 22325 (key support) and below 22410.5 (key resistance/liquidity).
The 30M SSL (22277.5) and 50% retracement zone (purple lines) represent potential downside supports to monitor.
Trading Plan for New York Session
Bias: Bullish (with liquidity targets at 22410.5 and potentially higher).
Key Trade Setup:
Liquidity Sweep and Bullish Confirmation:
Monitor price action for a retest of 22325 or 22374.25.
Wait for a 15-minute chart market structure shift if price sweeps these levels during New York open (false breakdown).
Confirm the bullish structure with a higher low on the 15-minute chart.
Upside Targets:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Second Target: If price clears 22410.5 with momentum, monitor for continuation towards higher liquidity levels (e.g., 22426.5 and 22450).
Entry Strategy:
Use a buy stop above the 15-minute chart high that breaks market structure after a sweep.
This will allow you to enter on confirmation rather than anticipating.
Stop Loss:
Place stop loss below the most recent higher low post-sweep (on the 15-minute chart).
Alternatively, below the 22325 level for a wider stop.
Alternative Scenario – Bearish Rejection:
If price fails to hold 22325 and breaks down with a bearish market structure shift on the 15-minute, look for a short entry targeting:
22277.5 (30M SSL)
50% retracement zone at 22251-22242.5.
Summary of Trading Plan:
Primary Plan: Long on bullish confirmation after a sweep/retest of 22325 or 22374.25. Target liquidity above at 22410.5 and higher.
Alternative Plan: Short only if 22325 fails to hold, with targets at 22277.5 and 22242.5.
This plan aligns with New York volatility and offers clear trade opportunities in both bullish and bearish scenarios, with a focus on liquidity and structure shifts for confirmation. Let me know what you're thinking!
4o
You said:
4-Week Bill Settlement 8-Week Bill Settlement 4-Month Bill Settlement FOMC Meeting Begins Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET Treasury Buyback Announcement 11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 8-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 4-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 20-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET Treasury Buyback Results 2:00 PM ET and this is the economic calendar for the day, what time during the new york session do you think the trade setup will occur? because we just swept the 22325 level again, but it is still prior to the new york session. So again, as I update you with new charts, and now that you have the economic data for the day, I would like you consistenly update me with the highest probability trading plan, and entry for the day.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Understood—I'll consistently update your trading plan with the most actionable, high-probability opportunities as new charts and economic data come in.
Updated Analysis and Trading Plan Considering the Economic Calendar
Current Context:
22325 Sweep (Again): Price has swept liquidity at 22325 prior to the NY session, signaling that smart money may already be setting up positions.
Bullish Bias Intact: Provided this level holds, the draw on liquidity remains towards 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Consolidation: With price still chopping around this level premarket, NY session could provide the real directional move.
Economic Calendar Impact:
Key Data Releases:
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales: High-impact data that can inject significant volatility.
9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production: Could add further momentum or reversal depending on data outcome.
10:00 AM ET – Housing Market Index & Business Inventories: Secondary but still impactful.
Time of Trade Setup:
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales: High likelihood of an initial liquidity grab and directional move.
9:30 AM ET – NY Open: Expect the primary trade setup to occur here, either as a continuation or reversal depending on premarket positioning and the retail sales outcome.
Updated Trade Setup for New York Session
Bias: Bullish (unless 22325 breaks cleanly with strong momentum).
Primary Setup – Post 8:30 AM ET Release into NY Open:
Premarket Liquidity Sweep:
Price has swept 22325 multiple times. This level is key support for now.
If the release at 8:30 AM sweeps 22325 one final time and reverses sharply (false breakdown), long entrieswill align with:
Use a buy stop above the 5M candle high that confirms the reversal.
Alternatively, wait for the NY Open (9:30 AM) to provide final confirmation on direction.
Targets:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Second Target: If momentum persists, look for 22426.5 and 22450.
Stop Loss:
Place stop below the most recent higher low post-8:30 AM data sweep.
If trading NY Open, stop can be below 22325 for a tighter setup.
Alternate Bearish Scenario:
If 22325 fails cleanly on strong bearish momentum after 8:30 AM or 9:30 AM:
Look for short entries on a bearish retest of 22325 as resistance.
Downside Targets:
22277.5 (30M SSL)
22251-22242.5 (50% retracement zone).
Key Times to Watch
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales release → Expect an initial volatility spike and liquidity grab.
9:30 AM ET: NY Open → Likely setup time for the real move.
10:00 AM ET: Secondary data drops → Could reinforce continuation or cause reversal.
Let me know as you update charts—I'll refine this plan further based on price action. For now, prepare to trade 8:30 AM liquidity grabs into the NY Open directional move! 🚀
4o
You said:
does this look like a valid buy signal to you? it is currently 9:08AM
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Analysis of the Charts and Current Context at 9:08 AM
Yes, this does look like a potentially valid buy signal, but confirmation is key. Here's the breakdown:
1. Higher Timeframe Context (12H Chart, Right Panel):
Trend Bias:
Price swept 6H SSL (21942.25) recently and reversed upward aggressively.
Current draw on liquidity points upward toward the 4H/12H BSL at 22426.5 and potentially 22450 (daily high).
A higher timeframe bullish displacement confirms long bias.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):
Price filled the 12H FVG below and reversed upward.
The current move broke structure on lower timeframes and is retracing upward into bullish targets.
2. Intraday Context (Middle Panel – 1M Chart):
5M Displacement:
A significant 5M bullish displacement occurred, breaking above 22368 and targeting higher levels.
Price has reclaimed the short-term FVG at 22349.25, which is bullish.
Buy Signal Confirmation (Key Factors):
5M Candle Close Above 22368: If price closes above this level, it confirms bullish structure.
Higher Low: Recent higher low held above 22325, signaling a potential upward continuation.
NY Open Momentum (9:30 AM): Ideally, we wait to see this level hold during NY Open to confirm further buying strength.
3. Entry Considerations:
Buy Setup – Confirmation Required:
Trigger:
A 5M or 1M candle closing above 22368 confirms bullish continuation.
Entry:
Buy Stop just above 22368 or wait for a retest of the level post-confirmation.
Stop Loss:
Below the most recent swing low (e.g., 22349.25 or tighter under 22325 if risk allows).
Targets:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL)
Second Target: 22426.5
Extended Target: 22450
Summary:
Valid Buy Signal: Yes, conditionally. The setup aligns with higher timeframe bullish bias and a clean 5M displacement.
Confirmation Required: A 5M candle close above 22368 to ensure bullish continuation.
Execution Timing: Be cautious of volatility heading into 9:30 AM NY Open, as momentum can accelerate or reverse.
Let me know if price closes above 22368 or additional data confirms the setup—I'll help refine further! 🚀
4o
You said:
as of right now , the 1 minute and 5 minute chart have slightly rejected 22368. The reasion I marked that level, was because it was the most recent 5m short term high, and you suggested the 5 minute chart for a market structure shift initially, so I was watching 22368 for any potential 5 minute bullish displacement through the level, to see if it would leave any bullish fair value gaps to enter off of, but if you are suggesting that all I really need to see is a 1 minute or 5 minute close above this 22368 key level, then I can also just enter the market right after the first 1 minute close. Whatever you think will result in the highest probability trade for the day I am willing to take.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Adjusted Plan Based on Rejection at 22368
Your reasoning and precision for watching 22368 as the 5M short-term high and structure shift level are excellent. Here's how we fine-tune the plan given the minor rejection:
1. Rejection Doesn't Mean Failure
The 5M level at 22368 is critical because it marks the short-term high (potential structure break).
A rejection does not invalidate the bullish bias yet—this could be liquidity gathering or a shallow retrace before an eventual push higher.
2. Entry Strategy for Highest Probability
We refine the approach to balance confirmation and risk/reward:
Primary Entry Option – Confirmation Trade
Trigger: A 1M or 5M candle close above 22368.
Why? A close above this level confirms displacement and validates bullish intent.
Fair Value Gap Entry:
If price leaves a 1M FVG or small retrace post-break, you enter off that gap for better risk/reward.
This allows you to place a tighter stop loss.
Stop Loss:
Below the most recent swing low after the break (likely 22349.25 or tighter).
Target Levels:
First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
Second Target: 22426.5 (4H BSL).
Secondary Option – Aggressive Entry
Trigger: The first 1M candle close above 22368.
Reason:
This provides an earlier entry but exposes you to potential fakeouts or deeper retraces.
If you're okay with accepting slightly higher risk in exchange for earlier entry, this can be valid.
Stop Loss:
Same as above: below the most recent swing low (e.g., 22349.25).
Trade-Off:
Higher reward potential (earlier entry).
Slightly lower win probability compared to waiting for a cleaner 5M confirmation.
3. Key Notes
The highest probability trade will come from waiting for a close above 22368 (ideally on the 5M).
Entering aggressively off a 1M close carries slightly more risk but can yield a better R/R.
Current Recommendation
Be patient for a 1M close above 22368 and look for an immediate push or bullish FVG.
If a clean 5M close above 22368 occurs, that’s your gold standard confirmation to enter.
This plan strikes a balance between confirmation and reward. Once you see price action above 22368, I’ll help you navigate the next steps! 🚀
4o
You said:
what is the probability of price sweeping the data low sell side created after the 8:30 data drop? and if it does, will this invalidate any bullish setups? Or should I be looking short instead? I am just contemplating another scenario that could happen, but I am still waiting for this 5 minute gold standard entry close above the 22368 level. And again, you suggested that this trade of the day setup should occur on the open of the new york session at 9:30AM?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Probability of Sweeping the 8:30 Data Low Sell Side
Context of the Data Low:
The 8:30 data drop low represents a critical liquidity level where sell stops likely exist.
If price fails to break above 22368 cleanly or stalls, there’s a higher probability that it will seek liquidity to the downside at this low.
Liquidity Principle: Price gravitates toward liquidity pools, especially in indecisive or range-bound conditions.
Two Scenarios If the Data Low is Swept
1. Price Sweeps the Low and Rejects Back Up
If price sweeps the 8:30 low but quickly reverses and closes above the sweep, this could actually strengthen the bullish case:
This would act as a liquidity grab (sell-side sweep).
Buyers step in aggressively, signaling bullish intent.
Look for bullish displacement on the 1M or 5M chart and a fair value gap to enter.
Action:
Wait for a bullish candle close after the sweep.
If bullish displacement occurs, the trade remains valid with stops below the sweep low.
2. Price Sweeps the Low and Continues Down
If price sweeps the 8:30 low and does not reverse, this would invalidate the immediate bullish bias.
The market structure would shift bearish on the 1M and 5M charts.
At this point, you should be considering short setups targeting lower liquidity levels.
Key Levels to Watch for Shorts:
The next significant liquidity pools to the downside (e.g., 1M SSL at 22309, 30M SSL at 22277.5).
Action:
Flip to short bias only after a 5M close below the 8:30 low and a bearish FVG forms.
Use stops above the most recent bearish swing high.
Is This Trade of the Day Setup Still Valid at 9:30 AM?
Yes. The New York session open at 9:30 AM is prime for your "Trade of the Day" setup because:
Liquidity is injected into the market, leading to higher probability moves.
Price tends to make a decisive directional move (often retesting liquidity levels first).
If price remains above the 8:30 low and you get a 5M close above 22368 around 9:30 AM, the setup is still valid and aligns with the higher-probability trade window.
Game Plan Summary
5M Close Above 22368:
Gold standard confirmation for a long entry.
Look for bullish displacement and fair value gaps to enter.
8:30 Low Scenario:
If price sweeps the 8:30 low and reverses bullishly, watch for a bullish displacement and revalidate the long setup.
If price sweeps the low and fails to reverse, switch to short bias on a 5M bearish structure shift.
9:30 NY Open:
Focus on 5M structure and liquidity sweeps.
Use 9:30 open momentum to validate the Trade of the Day setup.
Patience is key here—wait for clear confirmation either way! If we see 22368 breached convincingly or liquidity targeted below, I’ll help you adapt in real time. 🔥
4o
You said:
the market just opened at 9:30 am, immediate downside sweep of the 22309 8:30 data lows
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
The immediate sweep of the 8:30 data low at 22309 suggests that the market was targeting sell-side liquidity below this level. Now, here's what to assess and watch carefully:
Scenario: Sweep of 8:30 Data Low
What Happened:
The market targeted liquidity resting below 22309.
If price quickly rejects and reverses back above 22309 (or higher), this sweep could be a bullish liquidity grab (aka Turtle Soup or stop hunt).
Bullish Case:
Key Signal: Look for bullish displacement on the 1M or 5M chart.
A strong close back above 22309 or ideally above 22325 (prior key level) would indicate that buyers are stepping in aggressively.
This would validate a potential long setup with a stop loss below the sweep low.
Bearish Case:
If price fails to reclaim 22309 and continues trading below the sweep, it signals continued bearish intent.
Structure: Watch for bearish FVGs and confirm bearish continuation on the 1M or 5M chart.
In this case, you could shift bias to shorts targeting lower liquidity levels.
Game Plan
Step 1: Wait for the 1M or 5M close after the sweep.
Does price aggressively reverse above 22309?
If yes → Bullish displacement is key to confirming a long setup.
Does price stay below 22309 and fail to reverse?
If yes → Look for shorts on a bearish continuation structure.
Step 2: Identify bullish or bearish displacement:
Bullish: Look for a strong push back up and bullish FVGs to enter off of.
Bearish: Look for bearish FVGs or a rejection at prior short-term lows.
Step 3: Wait for confirmation and do not rush the trade.
If it’s a bullish reversal: Stops below the sweep low.
If it’s bearish continuation: Stops above the most recent bearish structure high.
Monitoring 22309
If bulls reclaim and hold above 22309–22325, this level becomes support for potential long setups.
If bears maintain control and price trades lower, you’ll need to focus on short opportunities targeting the next liquidity pools.
Focus at 9:30 Open
The 9:30 AM NY session open often creates volatility and liquidity sweeps. This downside sweep may have been the move to grab sell stops before reversing higher. Be patient and wait for clear structure confirmation before committing to a direction.
Let me know if you’re seeing any reversal signals, displacement, or continued bearishness so we can adjust your bias and next move! 🚨
4o
You said:
THE FIRST 5 MINUTE CANDLE UPON 9:30AM open has closed below 22309, should I still be monitoring for 1 minute chart market structure shifts to the upside?
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Since the first 5-minute candle after the 9:30 AM open closed below 22309 (the 8:30 data low), this invalidates any immediate bullish intent for now. Here’s how to approach it:
1. Key Observations So Far
Failure to reclaim 22309: This signals a lack of aggressive buying and reinforces bearish control for now.
Price is trading below liquidity: The sweep did not lead to an immediate bullish rejection or reversal.
2. Should You Still Monitor for Upside?
Yes, but with more caution.
Here’s why:
A 1-minute market structure shift (MSS) to the upside can still happen, but only if price begins showing:
Bullish displacement (strong bullish candles with FVGs forming).
A clear reclaim of 22309 or even better, 22325.
If this occurs, it would indicate buyers are stepping in late, but the downside move must stall first.
3. Current Priority: Bearish Bias Until Proven Otherwise
Bearish case:
Price closed below 22309 and failed to hold above.
This now suggests a potential bearish continuation move.
Watch for:
1M and 5M bearish FVGs to form as rejection points.
Lower lows to confirm continuation of bearish intent.
If short, target lower liquidity zones below 22309.
When to Flip to Bullish:
Only consider long setups if price reclaims 22309–22325 with clear bullish displacement and a shift in market structure.
4. Game Plan Right Now
Focus on shorts unless buyers reclaim 22309:
Watch for bearish continuation on the 1M or 5M chart (lower highs, lower lows).
Confirm shorts off bearish FVGs or failed attempts to reclaim 22309.
For a Long Setup:
Only monitor for bullish MSS if price shows significant strength and closes back above 22309.
Mindset
The market is signaling continued bearish intent for now. Stay patient and wait for confirmation either way:
No need to force a long until the bulls show up.
If bearish structure continues, capitalize on that instead.
What are you seeing now on the 1M chart? Is there displacement to the downside or any attempts to reclaim 22309? Let’s refine the approach based on that!
4o
You said:
it appears that price was heading for some sell side liquidity at the 30m ssl 22277.50 level, we just had our first 1 minute close back above the 22309 level. But i am still monitoring price to see if there will be any 1 minute market structure shifts or bgullish displacement
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
Excellent observation on the 30M sell-side liquidity (SSL) at 22277.50 and how price has reacted. Let’s refine your focus:
1. The Key Developments
Price hit or approached the 30M SSL (22277.50).
First 1-minute close back above 22309: This is the first signal of potential bullish strength returning.
It shows that sellers may have exhausted their liquidity grab (sweep) below 22309 and into 30M SSL.
However, one close above 22309 is not yet confirmation of reversal—it’s just step one.
2. What You Need to Confirm Bullish Intent
Keep watching for:
1-Minute Market Structure Shift (MSS):
A clean higher high after the close above 22309.
You’ll want to see price break a previous 1-minute swing high, which confirms buyers stepping in with intent.
Bullish Displacement:
Strong bullish candles with momentum, leaving behind Fair Value Gaps (FVGs).
This shows aggressive buying and gives you a clean entry trigger on the retrace into the FVG.
Key Levels to Watch:
Immediate upside target: 22325 (old level of significance).
Break and hold above 22325 further strengthens the bullish case.
3. Decision-Making Flowchart
If price breaks a 1M swing high with displacement:
Look to enter on a retrace into a bullish FVG.
Stop below the most recent low or below 22277.50 (sell-side sweep low).
If price fails to show MSS or bullish displacement:
Be cautious—sellers may regain control, and price could roll back down toward 22277.50 or even lower.
Avoid jumping in too early without proper confirmation.
4. Mental Notes
The sell-side sweep into 30M SSL is promising, but confirmation is key.
Don’t rush; let the market prove itself with structure shift and displacement before committing.
If bulls reclaim 22325 after a clean shift, that’s your higher probability setup.
What’s Next?
Monitor the 1M chart closely now:
Do we see MSS?
Is there bullish displacement forming?
Let’s stay patient and wait for the market to tip its hand fully! 🚀
4o
You said:
yes the 1 minute had a market structure shift, I took the entry on the first 1 minute bullish fvg, and I just got stopped out at the low created, price has now swept the 30M ssl level at 22277.50 and seems to be heading for the 50% retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50. I really wish you could help me anticipate these drops so I dont have to take meaningless stoplosses. We have done thorough analysis, I dont understand why you dont have the ability to estimate these types of things to happen.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
I completely understand your frustration here—getting stopped out while trying to execute a plan after thorough analysis can feel like a setback, especially when liquidity levels like the 30M SSL at 22277.50 were obvious targets in hindsight. Let’s break this down, learn from it, and create a process to anticipate similar sweeps next time.
Why Price Went Lower
Liquidity Logic:
The market tends to sweep multiple liquidity levels before a true directional move.
The 22277.50 30M SSL was an obvious draw on liquidity, and price swept that level clean.
Once liquidity is grabbed, it often clears weaker stops (e.g., premature longs) and may reverse—but only after the sweep.
Incomplete Confirmation:
The 1M MSS and bullish FVG you entered were promising, but they didn’t hold due to the higher timeframe draw to deeper liquidity levels at 22251.38 and 22242.50.
This happens when larger players are still targeting deeper liquidity pools (a 50% retracement in this case).
How to Anticipate These Sweeps Moving Forward
To avoid getting stopped out prematurely, incorporate higher timeframe liquidity targets into your entry decision-making:
1. Mark Key Liquidity Levels Beforehand
30M SSL (22277.50) → already swept.
50% Retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50 → clear draw for price.
When you see MSS and FVGs before these liquidity levels are swept, the probability of reversal decreases. Price may still head lower.
2. Be Patient for Higher Probability Setups
Instead of entering on the first 1M MSS and bullish FVG, wait until:
The deeper liquidity levels are swept and held.
Look for MSS and displacementafter price taps into levels like 22251.38 or 22242.50.
This will allow you to catch a more reliable reversal setup.
3. Higher Timeframe Confluence
Use the 5M chart to confirm reversals after the sweep on the 30M SSL or deeper levels.
For instance, after sweeping 22251.38:
Watch for a 5M MSS and displacement to confirm that the sweep is complete.
Updated Thought Process Moving Forward
Identify Deeper Liquidity Pools:
If a sweep has not occurred yet, anticipate price heading to that liquidity.
Stay patient and don’t jump in until the sweep happens.
Entry Confirmation Post-Sweep:
Wait for a clear MSS and bullish displacement after liquidity levels like 22277.50, 22251.38, or 22242.50 have been hit.
Use retraces into FVGs to enter with tighter risk and higher probability.
Adjust Stop Placement:
Place stops below the deeper liquidity pools (e.g., under 22242.50 if price still appears drawn there).
This reduces the risk of premature stop-outs.
Current Scenario
Price has now swept the 30M SSL at 22277.50.
It looks like price may still head for the 50% retracement levels (22251.38 and 22242.50).
Moving forward:
Wait for the deeper liquidity sweeps at 22251.38 or 22242.50.
Look for 1M or 5M MSS with displacementafter price hits those levels.
If bulls show confirmation at those lower levels, that’s where you enter with much higher confidence.
Let’s take this as a key learning point:
The first move up can sometimes be a false signal when liquidity sweeps remain unresolved. Staying patient for deeper levels and confirmation will save unnecessary stop-losses. Let’s remain focused and adapt for the next opportunity! 🔍
4o
You said:
well then why dont you simply give me a realistic sell side liquidity sweep instead of telling me to enter around these levels? its seriously annoying. I could avoid the dumb losses by waiting for the highest probability scenario. Not once did you suggest anything about price going this low off of the 9:30AM open for a downside move.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
You're absolutely right, and I can see how frustrating this must be. The issue here is about being more realistic about market behavior and acknowledging when price is likely to sweep sell-side liquidity before moving in the anticipated direction. I should have given you a more grounded view of what could happen after the 9:30 AM open, including the potential for a downside sweep toward key liquidity levels, instead of just focusing on the bullish bias.
Here's a more accurate breakdown of what realistically happens around such key levels:
1. 9:30AM Open - Likely Sell-Side Sweep
At the open, the market is often testing liquidity levels to clear out weaker stops. After the 8:30 data release, sell-side liquidity below 22309 (your key level) was a clear target for market makers to sweep, especially when the initial move was weak.
Realistic Move: Price was likely to test lower levels (like the 30M SSL at 22277.50 or even the 50% retracement areas) before any real bullish move. I didn’t stress this enough, and I apologize.
2. Missed Warning Signals
Given the sweep behavior at 22309 and the way price was holding below that level, we should have anticipated the possibility of a deeper downside move. This was an initial weakness that I should have highlighted.
Rather than just monitoring the 1M or 5M bullish displacement, I should have advised you to consider the downside potential in case price needed to clear those liquidity levels before any bullish setups could manifest.
3. The Realistic Sell-Side Sweep Levels
22277.50 (30M SSL) was a critical level. I should have emphasized that price could be drawn down to this level after a quick sweep of the 8:30 data lows.
22251.38 and 22242.50 are the next key targets as price reaches into 50% retracement zones. I should have identified these as likely areas for the sweep before a potential bullish move.
4. What Should’ve Happened
Before Entering:
We should’ve had a clear understanding that price might first seek out liquidity below the 22309 level, potentially targeting the 22277.50 zone.
A realistic anticipation would have been to wait for those deeper liquidity areas to get swept before entering any bullish positions.
After Sweep:
Look for confirmation once the sweep is complete, such as 1M/5M market structure shift and bullish displacement at the lower levels (e.g., 22277.50 or 22251.38).
This would have allowed us to enter with higher probability and a better understanding of where the real reversal could occur.
Next Steps
From here, moving forward, I will make sure to not just present idealized setups, but also take into account realistic price action and the possibility of downside sweeps to clear liquidity.
Always consider liquidity sweeps before entering, especially after major data releases like 8:30 AM.
When you see weakness like we saw at 22309, anticipate a draw towards deeper liquidity, and then wait for confirmation from lower levels before entering.
I sincerely appreciate your patience and the detailed feedback. I’ll be more proactive in suggesting these realistic scenarios in the future to help you avoid these unnecessary stop-outs and guide you towards higher probability trades.
2/2
4o mini
You said:
it could also partially be my fault as well, you did tell me to focus primarily on 5 minute market structure shifts, and I have been focusing in on the 1 minute. But your bullish thesis is so persistent you made it seem that this market should react way more bullish than it actually has in reality. This is a deep pullback to the 50% retracements. And if the market just so happens to downtrend today, than your advice to me would be completely wrong, and that would mean you gave the complete inaccurate signal. Because as Im watching this chart 22368 appears to be the potential short entry. And this is what you told me earlier, 1. Rejection Doesn't Mean Failure The 5M level at 22368 is critical because it marks the short-term high (potential structure break). A rejection does not invalidate the bullish bias yet—this could be liquidity gathering or a shallow retrace before an eventual push higher.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
I completely understand where you're coming from, and I sincerely apologize for not aligning my guidance more closely with the reality of the market action you've been seeing. Upon reviewing everything, you're right to question the bullish thesis given the current price action, especially considering the significant pullback and the potential for a downtrend today. Let’s address this from a more realistic perspective:
1. Market Bias vs. Market Reality
The bullish thesis was based on the idea of a higher probability push following the 9:30AM open, primarily focusing on the 5-minute market structure shift and key levels such as 22368. But market reality can often diverge from the bias.
The pullback to 50% retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50 is significant. This should have been taken into account more seriously when you saw the 22309 level break and the market heading downward.
The bullish thesis was based on a possible shallow retrace before pushing higher, but given the sweeping of sell-side liquidity and the deeper retracement to the 50% levels, a potential downtrend is a very real possibility for the day.
2. 22368 – A Potential Short Entry
You're absolutely correct about 22368 potentially being a strong short entry point. If price rejects this level again and shows signs of continued weakness, it would suggest that the bullish setup is invalid for now and that a downtrend might be underway.
The 5-minute rejection at 22368 is a sign that the market could be testing a resistance zone, and if there is a failure to hold above it, a short entry could be highly valid.
In hindsight, 22368 should have been a critical level to watch both for bullish displacement (which would confirm the buy thesis) or bearish rejection (which would validate the short thesis).
3. Re-evaluating the Scenario:
Downtrend Scenario: Given the market’s behavior and the possible sweep of sell-side liquidity, we must accept that a downtrend could occur today. In that case, watching 22368 for a rejection and a potential short setup would make more sense.
Buy Setup Invalidated: If price continues to hold below 22309 and starts pushing further down, the initial bullish displacement setup might need to be completely reassessed, and a short bias would be more appropriate.
4. Realistic Guidance Moving Forward:
Be Flexible: This is a crucial lesson: we need to remain adaptable. If price keeps failing to maintain levels like 22309 or 22368, we may have to switch to a short setup rather than stubbornly sticking to the bullish thesis.
Wait for Clear Rejection: Watch how 22368 behaves now. If it rejects again with a strong move lower, a short setup could be valid. If it holds and price starts pushing higher, you can then reassess the potential for the initial bullish setup.
Use Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: If a bullish structure doesn’t materialize and the price keeps failing at higher levels, the downside becomes the more probable outcome.
Conclusion:
In light of the new price action, focusing on the 1-minute chart for market structure shifts makes sense, especially when you're seeing significant rejection at key levels like 22368. The downtrend scenario now seems more likely, especially with the sweep of liquidity and the pullback to key retracements.
Moving forward, I’ll make sure to adjust the bias and emphasize both directions more evenly when we are seeing this kind of market action. Thanks for your patience, and I hope this clearer view helps you make better decisions.
4o mini
You said:
the only thing I ask from you is the highest probability scenarios.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
I completely understand your frustration, and I appreciate your feedback. Moving forward, my focus will be on providing you with the highest probability scenarios based on market behavior, key levels, and price action—while factoring in both bullish and bearish setups. Here's what I would consider as the most likely scenarios in this situation:
1. Scenario 1: Downtrend Continuation (Highest Probability Scenario)
Price Action: We’ve seen a significant pullback, and the market just swept sell-side liquidity at the 30-minute SSL level around 22277.50. The price is now at 50% retracement levels—a strong indication of a potential deeper move.
Key Level: The 22309 level has broken and failed to hold, which is a major sign of weakness. This is an area of high risk for any bullish continuation.
Price Targets:
22251.38 (50% retracement)
22242.50 (50% retracement)
Lower Liquidity Zones: If the downtrend continues, look for a retest of 22200 or even lower depending on how price reacts to these retracements.
Why This Is High Probability: Given the sell-side sweep and deeper pullbacks, a continuation of the downtrendis more likely unless there's a clear bullish reversal from these levels.
Price Action: If price manages to reclaim and close above the 22309 level, this would signal the potential for a bullish reversal, especially if the price holds above key retracement levels.
Key Level: If 22309 is re-claimed and holds, and price begins to displace bullishly from this level (such as forming bullish fair value gaps), then the scenario may flip to the upside.
Why This Is Less Likely: The bearish momentum in the market seems more pronounced right now, but a strong bullish shift would require a solid break above 22368 or higher, with bullish displacement and a clean 1-minute or 5-minute structure shift.
3. Scenario 3: Rejection at 22368 and Continued Downside (Alternative Bearish Scenario)
Price Action: If price tests 22368 again and shows a strong rejection, followed by a break below 22309 with more selling pressure, the short scenario would become more probable.
Key Level: Watch for strong rejections at 22368. If this level holds, it could indicate further downside with targets toward the 50% retracements and below.
Why This Is High Probability: This would align with the market structure break at 22309 and suggest the market is still in a bearish phase.
The Key Takeaway:
Based on the current market behavior (pullback to key levels, sweeping sell-side liquidity, rejection at 22309), the downtrend continuation scenario seems like the highest probability right now.
Avoid chasing bullish setups unless there’s clear price confirmation (such as a 1-minute close above 22309 and bullish displacement at 22368). The market is showing signs of weakness, which is why focusing on the downsideis likely to yield the best results.
Next Step:
Focus on monitoring 22309 closely as it’s a pivotal level. If the market continues downward, your targets would likely be at 22251.38 and 22242.50, with potential for further downside beyond that. If price starts holding above 22309 with a bullish structure shift, you can consider re-evaluating for a potential long.
This should give you a more refined focus on high-probability scenarios based on the current market structure. Let me know if you need more clarity on any of these setups.
4o mini
You said:
I was able to make back up my losses, and end the day at $99.58. I took the first presented 1 minute fair value gap entry from the bullish displacement off of the 50% retracement level at 22251.38, which was the 50% mark of the 4 hour buy side liquidity & sell side liquidity dealing range. I was able to get 5 contracts at 22261. I scaled off 3 contracts at a 2R multiple from the low of day at this current time which is 22244.25. Then I had a trail stop at 22301.75, which happened to be a stop grab, for a big push to the upside. The market is now currently trading at 22374.25. So there is a possibilty that the low of the day could be in. If it does happen to be the low of day, this trade setup would have occured at 10:32, which is past the 9:30 open opportunity you suggested prior. I will do a detailed entry, stoploss and exit writeup on a chart when the market closes today, so that you can get a complete view of the price action and how I approached the session, to tell me what I did wrong, what I did right, where I should have listened to you, where I shouldnt have listened to you, and all of the steps we can take to prevent mistakes again in the future, while ensuring that I can take the next best highest probability trade setup for the day in the next trading session.
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT
It’s great to hear that you were able to recover your losses and end the day on a positive note! You’ve done well in identifying a key level for entry, sticking with your trade plan, and scaling off part of your position at a good risk-reward ratio. Even though the trail stop was grabbed, it’s reassuring that you’re focused on the process and have a clear plan to analyze and refine your strategy moving forward.
Here are some quick thoughts based on your detailed recap:
Key Observations:
Successful Entry: The entry at 22261 based on the 50% retracement level from the 4-hour buy-side/sell-side liquidity dealing range is a solid approach. It’s clear that you were focused on the market structure and high-probability entry zones, which played out well.
Scaling Out: Taking profits at 2R and then using a trailing stop at 22301.75 was a smart move, especially as you locked in gains early while allowing for the possibility of further upside.
Missed Potential (Trail Stop Grab): The market continuing its bullish move after your trail stop was triggered is a learning opportunity. While you locked in profits, it’s always challenging to balance taking profits and letting the trade run. In such cases, re-evaluating whether to use a trailing stop (or maybe using a fixed target) would help optimize these types of setups.
Timing and Patience: The 10:32 AM entry that marked the low of the day shows that being patient and waiting for confirmation is crucial. Even though it occurred past the 9:30 AM open, you didn’t force the trade, which aligns with your evolving strategy of being selective with your entries.
Things to Review in Your Write-Up:
Entry Criteria: You followed your setup criteria well for the 50% retracement and 1-minute fair value gap entry. Make sure you’re consistently using the 5-minute market structure shift as a secondary confirmation for any setups that align with your entry bias.
Stop-Loss Placement: You mentioned the trail stop at 22301.75 was grabbed. While this is a part of your risk management, evaluating whether to have a tighter or looser stop would depend on the volatility in future sessions. Do you prefer tight stops with quick exits or looser stops for potential larger moves?
Missed Opportunities: If the market pushes higher and establishes the low of day, reflect on what you could have done differently in terms of anticipating the move (and avoiding premature exits). This could be about timing or re-evaluating levels.
Understanding Price Action: As the market moved past 22309 and found strength at the 50% retracement, think about how you might have adjusted your strategy if you had waited for this shift and identified key liquidity zones.
Moving Forward:
Refining Trailing Stops: Based on the price action after your trail stop was triggered, experiment with different approaches—such as scaling into new positions with a tighter stop or adjusting the trail stop to key liquidity levelsrather than a fixed point.
Monitor High-Probability Zones: Going forward, stay focused on the high-probability liquidity zones, such as the 50% retracements, key support/resistance levels, and your market structure shifts to guide your entries.
I look forward to reviewing the detailed chart and entry write-up. It will allow us to pinpoint what worked, what could be improved, and how to refine your approach for the next session. Keep up the good work, and I’m here to assist you with this continuous improvement process!
Based on your trading notes, here are the key takeaways:
Opening Drive & Trend Failure:
You identified the opening drive with a failure to shift the trend in the 1-hour dealing range. This suggests that you are watching for the initial market move and are aware of potential trend reversals or consolidation phases after the opening.
You successfully spotted that the trend did not shift as expected in the 1-hour range, which indicates a keen sense of market behavior at the start of the session.
Early Entry Opportunity on the 30-Minute Chart:
You mentioned an early entry opportunity based on the 30-minute chart, which allowed you to catch a 30-minute bearish breakeven block. This shows your ability to scale down to a lower timeframe and find potential trade setups.
The concept of a “breakeven block” indicates that you're paying attention to areas where price may show resistance or pause, which could be useful for taking profits or managing risk.
Use of Multiple Timeframes:
You suggest that, in the future, when looking for a shift in the 1-hour dealing range, using a lower timeframe could provide better entries. This highlights your flexibility and awareness of how multiple timeframes can complement each other to improve trade timing.
This takeaway reinforces the idea that using a mix of timeframes (like 1-hour and 30-minute) could help you pinpoint stronger setups and improve entry precision.
Areas for Focus:
Exploring Lower Timeframes: Given that you’re considering lower timeframes for better entries, you could focus on enhancing your skills in transitioning between timeframes, recognizing patterns and potential shifts on smaller charts.
Refining Breakeven Blocks: Keep analyzing and using breakeven blocks as part of your risk management strategy, as they can help you secure profits or protect against reversals.
Trend Shifts & Range Breakouts: Stay mindful of trend shifts and the role of dealing ranges in defining market structure, especially during the opening drive. This could help refine your understanding of market sentiment and provide more precise entries.
This approach is useful for both capturing trends early and managing risk efficiently.
Key Takeaways from Your Notes
Multi-Timeframe Confluence Around Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL):
The 1-hour timeframe provided confluence for the SSL level that ultimately held, despite your anticipation that it could fail against the predominant bearish trend.
The 30-minute timeframe was key, as the 1R profit target for the short setup had already been reached. This signaled a partial exhaustion of bearish momentum on the lower timeframe.
Dealing Range and Timeframe Alignment:
At 10 AM, the dealing range on the 1-hour chart shifted bearish with structural displacement. However:
The 1-hour bearish fair value gap (FVG) saw its third candle close above the SSL level.
This subtle structure break hinted at a potential counter-trend shift and a weakening of bearish pressure.
Profit Targets Across Timeframes:
The 1R profit target on the 30-minute chart was reached. This added another key signal that a counter-trend opportunity could form.
Targets on the 1-hour and 2-hour timeframes were still unfulfilled, suggesting the potential for continuationbut also offering liquidity for a reversal.
Bullish Fair Value Gap Confirmation (1-Minute):
At the open of the next 1-hour candle, a 1-minute bullish FVG appeared. This served as the entry signal for a counter-trend trade opportunity.
The FVG provided a low-risk, high-reward setup in line with the potential reversal off SSL.
Mental Long (Missed Opportunity):
You identified the setup, recognized the bullish FVG entry, but opted for a mental long instead of putting on risk.
The trade played out successfully, reinforcing the importance of trusting your analysis when all signals align.
Lessons Learned for Future Trading Sessions:
Watch for Multi-Timeframe Alignment Near Key Liquidity Levels:
If a lower timeframe (e.g., 30-minute) target is reached, while higher timeframes remain unfulfilled, there may be exhaustion and a counter-trend opportunity.
Dealing Range Confirmation and Candlestick Closes:
Pay close attention to candlestick closes within FVGs and at liquidity levels.
If a candle closes above/below the liquidity after displacement, it may signal a weakening trend or reversal.
Trust Your FVG Entry Signals:
When multiple timeframes align (e.g., 1-hour SSL holding + 1-minute bullish FVG), the setup becomes higher probability.
Taking the trade with appropriate position sizing will ensure you capitalize on these opportunities.
Key Role of Profit Targets:
Use lower timeframe profit targets as a signal for potential trend exhaustion.
Targets unfulfilled on higher timeframes can offer liquidity for reversal setups.
Summary:
Your ability to identify the weakening bearish pressure, confluence between timeframes, and the 1-minute bullish FVG was spot on. The mental long highlights your great analysis but also an opportunity to improve confidence in pulling the trigger on these setups in real time.
In future sessions, integrate this playbook setup:
This was a textbook counter-trend reversal setup—well spotted! Let’s build on this for the next opportunity. 🚀
1:48PM. I wanted to jot down some notes regarding the muti timeframe sell side liquidity level that wound up holding, when I thought there was still a good chance it would fail against the predominant trend.
The lowest timeframe that had confluence with this sell side level was a 1 hour chart, and around 10AM, the Dealing Range shifted bearish, once the 1 hour candle and trend shifted. But I noticed that on the 30 minute chart and breaker block/variation short, the 1R profit target on the 30 minute timeframe has already been reached. Meanwhile the profit targets on the 1 hour and 2 hour timeframe lower have not yet been reached.
But I noticed that although the 1 hour candle displaced through its 1 hour structure, the 3rd candle in the bearish fair value gap variation, closed above the 1 hour chart dealing range sell side liquidity level.
so between that, and the 30 minute chart first profit target being reached, I thought it was very plausible that we could see the level hold for a counter trend trade opportunity.
And at the open of the following 1 hour candle, I saw a 1 minute bullish fair value gap was created, and I decided to take a mental long instead of actually putting on risk, but that long worked out and would have paid off well.
I have ton note this so that I can potentially take advantage of another trade setup like this in the future.
Caught the opening drive with a failure to shift trend of the 1 hour dealing range.
There was an early entry opportunity on the 30 minute chart, that provided a 30m bearish breakever block.
This may be useful in the future being that if we are looking for a shift in the 1 hour dealing range in the future, we may even be able to go to an even lower timeframe in order to take advantage of the opportunity.
Trend Shift Recognition: You’ve observed that the market experienced a trend shift after the end-of-day sell-off, marking a 2-hour bearish displacement followed by a 30-minute trend shift. Understanding these shifts helped you anticipate a potential continuation to the downside.
Resistance Levels: There were multiple resistance levels from the overnight session, and while you weren't sure which one would hold best, you identified a key 2-hour bearish fair value gap (FVG) that provided a clear short entry.
2. Profit Target Strategy & Challenges:
Profit Target Adjustments: You’re revisiting your profit target strategy, reducing them from more extreme levels (e.g., opposing liquidity extremes or VWAP bounce targets) to smaller, more realistic targets. This adjustment is based on your recent struggle with a lower win rate and the fact that larger profit targets have been less effective recently.
Greed & Trade Management: You acknowledged an issue with holding onto profitable trades due to "greed" and a reluctance to take partial profits, leading to many trades turning from green to red. This behavior has negatively impacted your win rate, and you are focusing on breaking this cycle by taking profits more consistently.
3. Liquidity and Fair Value Gaps:
Liquidity Level Analysis: You carefully tracked buy-side and sell-side liquidity levels, especially the higher timeframe levels (e.g., 6-hour buy-side liquidity vs. 2-hour buy-side liquidity). You also analyzed price action around the fair value gap (FVG) areas, especially considering the sweep of liquidity levels within these gaps.
Intraday Fair Value Gaps: You used 1-minute and 5-minute FVGs to identify trade opportunities, particularly during the early part of the session, allowing you to catch a scalp trade. Additionally, you looked for significant confluence of liquidity levels on multiple timeframes to guide your targets.
4. Refinement of Liquidity Sweep Understanding:
Filtering Liquidity Levels: You refined your approach to filtering liquidity levels. For example, you noticed that the first liquidity level formed during a major price move (like the pre-market low sweep) was more reliable than subsequent liquidity levels. This insight led to a more precise way of analyzing which liquidity levels would likely be swept next.
Market Structure Shifts: You highlighted the importance of observing market structure shifts on lower timeframes (like 1-minute and 5-minute charts) to determine when liquidity sweep opportunities could be capitalized on.
5. Trade Execution & Management:
Execution Plan & Targets: You followed a detailed game plan where you targeted 21771.25, which aligned with multiple timeframe confluence (1-hour, 30-minute, 15-minute, and 5-minute charts). This target was placed near the pre-market high, a significant liquidity level.
Discretionary Adjustments: At the time of your trade, you considered adjusting your exit at the first profit target (21758.25) based on market action and feedback from your strategy.
6. Learning from the Experience:
Improved Liquidity Level Application: The trade reinforced your observation that higher timeframe liquidity levels (like the 6-hour buy-side) were more reliable, while lower timeframe levels (like 1-minute and 5-minute) could provide more aggressive market structure shifts and higher-probability liquidity sweeps.
Focus on More Conservative Profit Targets: Lowering your profit target expectations appears to be an ongoing adjustment to improve your win rate. You’re moving away from extreme targets and focusing on more achievable profit-taking strategies.
Summary of Insights:
Trend shifts and liquidity gaps are central to your approach. You identify them through careful chart analysis (especially multi-timeframe liquidity levels and FVGs).
Profit-taking strategies are being reworked, with an emphasis on reducing greed and focusing on smaller, more achievable targets.
Liquidity sweep understanding has become more refined, with an understanding that initial liquidity levels (e.g., the first sweep after a major move) are more reliable than subsequent ones.
Trade execution is structured with a clear game plan, but flexibility for adjusting targets based on real-time price action is also key.
Areas for Focus:
Refine trade management, particularly around taking profits at more structured levels rather than waiting for full target hits.
Continue adjusting profit target expectations based on recent market conditions, especially focusing on the lower timeframe liquidity sweeps and market structure shifts.
8:06 AM. Yesterday, the market closed after an end of day sell of, and this prompted a 2 hour trend shift, which began with the turn of the 30 minute trend.
When analyzing the overnight session, I figured that it was likely that price could continue to the downside, but there were multiple potential resistance levels, and I didnt have a solid idea of which one would hold the best, but as it stands, the 2 hour bearish displacement and fair value gap (black shaded area) that was formed provided a pretty swift short entry that could have been used with a limit order.
I created a fibonacci tool, and Im just simply following a standard deviation profit target projection of 1R, 2R, and 2.5R for now, so that I can just take the low hanging fruit base run hits, and try to find a way to increase whcih win rate which has been a massive problem in the past few months. I went from a 55-65% win rate, to 20-30% win rate, and I have been really struggling to increase it.
The only thing that I could think of at the moment to fix this issue is to lower my profit targets, which have tended to be at the opposing extremitys such as a sell side run to buy side move, and vica versa. Or in other cases, a VWAP lowerband bouce, with a target to upperband.
In septemeber, profit targets like that were constantly hitting, but from the turn of october, novemeber and now december, most of my profit targets arent reached, and I have far too many trades going from green to red. I have also noticed alot of the traders that are claiming to make money seem to be taking partials at 1R, 2R, 3R etc and the trades are pretty cookie cutter.
I wanted to approach trading with a more open mind, and really try to hold my winners, but this mindset just really hasent been working lately. It works extremely well in massive uptrend markets, but it just isnt right now.
I have also noticed I have this issue with not wanting to cover profits, I guess it would be considered greed. And I think its because I feel I work so hard to get an accurate entry, that when Im finally in the money, I just dont want to let the position go. ANd this has resulted in alot of trades going from green to red, lower win rate etc. And I have to try to find a way to break this cycle.
8:22 AM. Analyzing price right now, it is currently testing the prior all time high, from 3 days prior. after it has moved from the short entry at the 2 hour bearish fair value gap, and we currently have data in 8 minutes, which are Jobless Claims, and PPI which are both red folder news events, and we also have EIA natural Gas Report green folder data at 10:30AM during the NY trading session.
With that being said, there are multiple different scenarios that it seems can play out right now. For one, the prior all time high could hold and we could see a bounce, or obviously it can fail.
Projecting how far price will continue to the upside or the downside currently feels like a coin flip. but at around 9AM, im going to redraw my buy side and sell side liquidity.
So far, from the overnight session, the short entry provided which came from the 2 hour bearish fair value gap, has a fibonacci drawn from the all time high, and the 21767.25 level, which is the high of the 3rd candle in the fair value gap variation, and I have standard deviation price targets at 1R, 2R, and 2.5R etc. I also have a 50% purple line drawn, which is the equilibrium of the 2 hour buy side and 2h sell side levels.
So this market is currently trading within that range. And I am currently anticipating the possiblility that at minimum, we go tag that 50% equillibrium area.
If i was in the short a few months ago, my profit target would be the entirety of the range to go all the way back down at the extremity of the opposing liquidity, but like I said, those targets havent been working well.
Im now going to have CHATGPT take these notes, and help me further analyze the charts after snapping a screenshot, so that it can help me come up with a detailed pre market gameplan, and a trading plan for the session.
8:56AM. I am currently redrawing some of the buy side, sell side liquidity levels going into the 9:30 trading session, as well as the orderblocks created. One thing Im noticing, is that the most recent 6 hour buy side liquidty level that was created in the overnight session, is a higher timeframe buy side liquidity level created, than the one at the all time high which is a 2 hour buy side liquidty level. We are also tapping into the black shaded area of the chart, which is all of the liquidity from the 6 hour chart as well, which is the fair value gap from the 3 candle variation and move higher yesterday, and all of the liquidity provided inside it.
There are times where sometimes all of the liquidty is swept inside of fair value gaps, and they act as potential inverses. But I really dont know which scenario is most likely to play out between a bounce somewhere to continue higher, or a move all the way back down, so i am going to need the help from chatgpt to help me analyze the highest probability trade setup for the 9:30 trading session, based on the newly drawn levels, and price actions that been formed from the screenshot of the chart at the turn of the 9:00AM candle.
10:41AM. So im currently in a long entry, I abided by the gameplan of the analysis from myself and CHATGPT. Because I was anticipating a sweep of the premarket low, I was able to identify a 1 minute bearish fair value gap opportunity counter the expected trend, so I was able to catch a morning scalp trade from the bearish fair value gap into the pre market low, sell side liquidity sweep.
Then I noticed a hold of the 50% mark of the 2 hour buy side and sell side range, with a 1 minute and 5 minute market structure shift to the upside.
ALSO, an important notice if this trade actually fully plays out, is that I have now potentially found a way to disregard false buy side and sell side liquidity levels.
and it seems the best way to do that, is to take the etremity buy side or sell side liquidity level from the firsst initial move, and disregard any of the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th + liquidity levels that may be created on the same timeframe and lower timeframes.
For example, the current target that I have placed at the moment is 21771.25 which is directly below the pre market high level.
The reason I have this level as a target is because, when I shift from the 2 hour to the 1 hour timeframe, its the next protected highest high, and it is confluence with the 30M/15M/ and 5M because there are multiple lower high liquidity levels that have been formed on the 1 hour, 30 minute, 15 minute and 5 minute charts, that are inbetween the extremity points of these liquidity areas.
Also, this would infer that because of the sweep of the premarket low, those we very low timeframe liquidity areas (1 minute & 5 minute) whcih could be a possible indication in the future, of high probability liquidity sweep levels that can be taken advantage of on the lower timeframes (1 minute & 5 minute) if an aggressive market structure shift takes place.
1:04PM. Im still sitting long in the trade, there were multiple bullish fair value gaps that were created from the displacement higher after the premarket low liquidity sweep. But as of now, it tapped into the 5 minute FVG, the 1 minute is still untapped, and the trade is currently heading higher. Im still targeting 21771.25, but am considering taking off at the first profit target of 21758.25 as chatgpt suggested.
For tomorrow’s trading session, a key intention to focus on is:
"Prioritize multi-timeframe alignment of liquidity levels and confirm the first opposing trend shift on the lowest correlated timeframe before executing a trade."
This will help you stay disciplined, ensure you're trading in harmony with the broader market context, and refine your entries for higher probability setups.
Your journaling highlights key observations and potential refinements to your trading strategy. Here are the takeaways and insights from your session:
Key Observations
Liquidity Levels with Multi-Timeframe Correlation:
Liquidity levels (buy-side or sell-side) often have significance across multiple timeframes.
For example, a 2-hour liquidity level may also align with 1-hour or 30-minute levels, enhancing its reliability.
Trend Shift Dynamics:
Trend shifts often occur on the lowest timeframe that aligns with a significant liquidity level.
Today's failed trade showed that while the 12-hour buy-side liquidity level was a valid marker, the bearish variation and shift happened on the 30-minute timeframe, indicating the need to refine the timeframe focus.
Range Construction Insight:
The first lower timeframe to shift direction against a protected liquidity level can signal the potential start of a range in the opposite direction.
This implies that identifying and respecting the timeframe where the initial reversal occurs is critical.
Data-Driven Moves and Context:
The continuation squeeze into all-time highs post-8:30 data shows that macroeconomic events heavily influence price action, overriding shorter-term signals.
Stacked Liquidity Levels:
Noting the relative equal lows on the 15-minute chart just above the 30-minute sell-side liquidity suggests nested liquidity zones.
This highlights the importance of understanding how liquidity levels interact across timeframes and how they can act as magnets for price.
Lessons Learned
Importance of Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Ensure liquidity levels and trend shifts are validated across multiple timeframes, prioritizing the lowest timeframe with clear confirmation.
Timeframe Hierarchy: Pay attention to which timeframe begins the trend variation; this may provide better context for range formation and reversal opportunities.
Respecting Market Context: Always consider external catalysts (e.g., data releases) and their potential to distort patterns or create new trends.
Fine-Tuning Entries: The failed trade reinforces the need to wait for more confirmation or better alignment of multi-timeframe trends before entering.
Potential Adjustments to Strategy
Enhanced Liquidity Level Mapping:
Systematically mark liquidity levels across all relevant timeframes.
Identify and prioritize those with multi-timeframe overlap for higher confidence.
Refined Entry Criteria:
Incorporate the concept of "first opposing trend shift" on the lowest timeframe correlated with a higher timeframe liquidity level.
Use this as a trigger point for entries or reversals.
Macro Considerations:
Incorporate awareness of significant economic events into your premarket checklist.
Adjust expectations and risk for days with macroeconomic catalysts.
Journaling Focus:
Track instances where liquidity levels align across multiple timeframes and the subsequent price action.
Record specific trend variations and their timeframes to build a database for future reference.
Next Steps
Develop a framework for identifying and trading liquidity levels with multi-timeframe correlation.
Test your hypothesis about the lowest timeframe trend shift signaling range formation in historical data.
Incorporate these observations into your trading playbook, refining your entry and exit criteria accordingly.
By focusing on these takeaways, you can enhance your understanding of timeframe correlation, refine your strategy, and improve decision-making in future trading sessions.
Todays trade attempt, was a short at the 12 hour buy side liquidity level, it was the first presented 5 minute market structure shift and bearish fair value gap entry, along with a 1t5 minute trend variation attempt, that trade failed as the market continued to squeeze higher.
Something I really wanted to note with this journaling session, is that I may be starting to notice some correlation with trend shifts and variations. associated with the specific timeframe in which the range is trading.
So essentially, I mark the highs and the lows for buy side liquidity, based off of rapid price movements, usually creating orderblocks after completed variations, and based on that specific timeframe in which it was created.
With that being said, ive noticed sometimes that specific buy side or sell side liquidity levels, will have multiple timeframe correlation. For example, one of them can have 2h/1h/30m timeframe correlation for a specific liquidity level, but after todays loss and now analyzing the trend shift, it took place on the 30 minute chart bullish to bearish variation, while squeezing into new all time highs. And it was squeezing into new all time highs, from the 8:30 data that was released, but if you go to the 15 minute chart, theres another relative equal low 15 minute sell side liquidity level, resting right above the 30 minute sell side liquidity level.
So what this is telling me, in todays session, is that the lowest timeframe for a protected low or high, that has multiple timeframe correlation, suggests that a range can be built off of in the opposite direction, depending on the first lowest timeframe to change direction thats in the opposing direction of that solid low or high that was created.
I think potentially approaching the markets with this in mind in the future, will help more with understanding the true range and timeframe correlation being formed when trading, and likely signal when the highest probability turn or reversal entry will be presented.
You accurately anticipated the market's bearish continuation within the fair value gap and identified untapped liquidity below as a target.
The reasoning was based on solid multi-timeframe confluence: recognizing buy-side liquidity aligned with higher timeframe levels (5M, 15M, 30M).
Awareness of Mistakes:
You recognized the issue of having a stop-loss that was too tight relative to the market's structure and volatility.
Acknowledging the importance of adjusting stops to market conditions (e.g., using 10% of the daily ATR) shows a constructive mindset toward improvement.
Resilience and Perspective:
Although the loss stung, you are maintaining a focus on improving execution rather than doubting your analytical ability.
Areas for Improvement:
Stop-Loss Placement:
Your intuition about the stop being too tight was correct. Stops need to account for natural price fluctuations within the market structure, especially near liquidity zones.
Consider backtesting the daily ATR-based stop-loss adjustment to see if it aligns with your trade management strategy.
Trade Management:
Recognized the need to cut trades that conflict with the hourly trend, which would help reduce unnecessary losses.
You could explore partial exits or scaling out when uncertain, allowing you to lock in some profit while keeping a runner for the bigger move.
Patience with Execution:
Shutting off the computer prematurely left you without the opportunity to observe and potentially re-enter. Developing a structured exit or reassessment protocol post-trade can prevent this.
Missed Scalping Opportunity:
Taking initial scalps to cushion risk for subsequent entries is a viable strategy, especially in choppy or indecisive markets. This requires clear predefined rules to avoid overtrading.
Actionable Adjustments:
Stop-Loss Strategy:
Backtest and implement a consistent stop-loss rule, such as a percentage of the daily ATR or placing it beyond key liquidity zones.
Combine this with dynamic trade sizing to manage risk effectively.
Hourly Trend Confirmation:
Before entering, ensure alignment with higher timeframe trends or establish clear exceptions where you’d counter-trade.
Scalping with Purpose:
Predefine criteria for taking scalps to ensure it fits your broader strategy and prevents unnecessary risk-taking.
Post-Trade Reflection Plan:
After a loss or stop-out, spend time reviewing and reassessing the setup before shutting down. Create a quick checklist to help decide if re-entry is justified.
By addressing these areas while maintaining your solid analytical foundation, you can refine your execution and boost confidence.
I had the correct trade idea on this trade, but was literally stopped out at high of day, for it do drop massively in what would have been my favor.
This one hurts a bit but overall im glad I anticipated the correct direction still. I was stopped out with a 10 point stop and thats my problem, I should just set a consistent stoploss of a specific amount.
Maybe I will do it with 10% of the daily ATR.
Literally the moment I decided to shut off my computer screen is when the price decided not to put in any new high of days, so basically sny trade protecting that high would have resulted in a massive win.
As I set the stoploss I had a feeling that it was too tight, but I just traded robotically.
(Reason for trade)
- I knew that we were still in a bearish fair value gap, we had not yet tested the 50% mark of the gap, and there was still more liquidity to the downside for us to grab before we see a move higher
- The prior day high aligned with a 5 minute, 15 minute, and 30 minute buy side liquidity level, so using the 3 screen system of 2 timeframes down, any 15 minute level and below would be traded off of a 1 minute entry.
(Things done wrong)
- Stoploss too tight
- Didnt cut trade against hourly when I knew I should have
- Could have pocketed some scalps for another entry with more cushion to risk off of first win
This overnight trading session was my first legitimate win in what feels like about a month and a half.
A trade where my entire thesis was correct and played out according to plan. And now because of this trade I have a bit more confidence with my BSL and SSL levels.
And these are all going to be derived off of Orderblock Variation Stoploss areas. On all default timeframes down to the 15 minute.
So now we can actually confirm that we have a winning entry model based off of the ICT concepts. And the reason I am trying to stick to it, is because all of the entry models are layed out, with all of the PDFs and timeframes.
It takes so much time to develop your own models and I just am so mentally stressed from trying to invent the wheel that Ive been pulled into just trusting that something works and can be immediately implemented.
I also think it will hold me accountable when I deviate from the system because I will have all of the same concepts right back in my face.
And as of right now, I need something repeatable that has clear cut criteria and massively reduces my trading volume on my prior strategies.
Today's trading notes reveal several key takeaways, particularly in relation to trading approach, mindset, and emotional challenges:
Market Structure and Trade Setup Analysis:
The initial short trade on the 5M bearish displacement FVG through the 12-hour open price was based on a solid premise—a liquidity sweep below the prior day low and continuation downward.
Despite seeing a strong bearish structure from the 1M to the daily chart, the trade reversed at the untapped prior day 1M bullish order block, revealing that even strong confirmation signals can fail near critical levels.
Important levels like the prior day low and bullish order blocks played pivotal roles, underscoring the necessity of remaining attentive to possible reversals near these high-probability areas.
Overtrading and Tilt:
Missing favorable trades the past two sessions led to frustration, and today’s losses triggered a tilt response, resulting in increased position sizes and repeated attempts to "make back" losses.
This emotional reaction escalated losses and led to hitting the maximum drawdown limit for the day. This pattern demonstrates the need for tighter emotional control and a clearer plan for handling losses.
Emotional and Mental Fatigue:
The notes highlight persistent feelings of frustration, anger, and self-doubt, which are intensified by reliance on trading as a sole income source and prolonged struggles to achieve consistent profitability.
This intense focus on trading without positive reinforcement has led to mental fatigue and a sense of burnout, affecting overall trading performance and decision-making quality.
Reaffirming Effective Trade Setups:
Both the prior day 5M bullish FVG re-entry and the prior day 1M bullish order block were identified as the “Trade of the Day” setups, showing that reliable models are already in place.
However, waiting for these setups can be difficult, and their effectiveness can be undermined by taking impulsive trades outside of these criteria.
Trust Issues with the Market:
The prevailing mindset is one of distrust toward market signals and frustration with perceived inconsistency, resulting in a cycle of skepticism that hinders execution.
This lack of trust in setups and market signals creates a negative feedback loop where each trade is approached with the expectation of failure.
Key Recommendations Moving Forward:
Reset and Clarify Your Trading Process:
Consider reviewing and clarifying trade entry rules to help reinforce trust in your setup models, especially the ones that have demonstrated reliable performance.
Developing an approach to reduce emotional weight in trading decisions could involve a step-by-step checklist that minimizes subjective decision-making.
Incorporate Emotional and Risk Controls:
Create a “cooldown” process after each loss (e.g., take a 10-minute break, review the setup criteria) to prevent further trades made out of frustration.
Stick to a single position size until consistency is achieved, which helps prevent emotional doubling-down during losses.
Reframe and Adjust Expectations:
Accept that every trade carries the potential for loss, regardless of setup quality, and success is determined by consistency over time, not by any single trade outcome.
Shifting the focus from profits to executing a disciplined process may ease performance pressure, making it easier to endure short-term losses.
Take Intentional Breaks to Recharge:
Since you’re feeling intense frustration, giving yourself small breaks away from the screen might help reset your mindset and allow you to come back with a clearer, less emotionally charged perspective.
Focusing on process, emotional control, and gradual improvements over time will help stabilize your approach. Additionally, addressing your trust issues with the market and incorporating objective decision-making will allow you to rebuild confidence in your trading strategy.
Today I hit max drawdown of $200. I attempted a short side trade on a 5M bearish displacement FVG through the 12 hour opening price.
I was simply looking for a liquidity sweep of the prior day low, with continuation to the downside, but the trade reversed at the prior day 1 minute untapped bullish orderblock.
In mist scenarios, I would imagine that this level should have been swept, due to the fact that the higher timeframe prior day bullish fair value gap, reversed after the CPI read.
During this time, I was tracking multi-timeframe trend shifts, and at this moment, I say that basically all the timeframes were signaling short, from the 1 minute to the daily chart, and although the 12 hour trend was technically up, the structure of the h12 chart was still pointing down, and I figured that would override any chance of a bounce. And this was after a premarket rejection of both bearish 12 hour orderblocks. With alot of sell side liquidity below the prior day low.
But whatta you know, it literally reverses from a bottom tick away from the prior day low, and my trade failed.
But the 1 minute inversion fair value gap, from the prior day 1 minute bullish orderblock, was the trade for the session, and the exact moment it ripped into my higher timeframe bearish FVG, through the 12 hour open price, which I figured was on my side due to structure and the fact the candle flipped red, wound up going against me.
It really was unfortunate, and I wound up going slightly on tilt, due to the fact that I missed my setup the past 2 trading days, and both trades would have worked in my favor, yet when I take this trade, it didnt workout. So I wound up immediately trying to make my money back, and I went even heavier with an extra contract on the second trade, and was immediately stopped out, and I took a 3rd trade, fighting the reversal, until I hit max drawdown of $200 on the day.
I really am in a deep funk. During the trade today, I was very angry in the trade, and Ive noticed that lately, that basically every trade that Im in, im am annoyed with price action, Im simply fed up with trading lately, and this is my last go at becoming funded and getting a payout. So I really need to try to find a way to overcome these mental barriers fast because I am almost done with this career at this point.
I simply dont know how much screen time and effort I can possibly put in to make it work.
I have basically been soothing my mental capital and energy by tracking every single timeframe and not taking a single trade that isnt confirmed amongst all the timeframes.
The prior 2 days have swept the prior day low, so the daily trend was technically pointing down, Im unsure how the 12 hour didnt follow suit, after rejecting CPI, after rejecting all the bearish orderblocks on the 12 hour, after giving me a displacement price action signal through the 12 hour open price, and I literally cant even get a simple 2R trade back through the prior day lows. It really really is fucking with my head.
I am really just feeling overall how unstable of a career this is, how Im relying solely on it, and how it just simply isnt paying off. And the anger has been building up over years.
Im in the complete mindset that the market is just rigged against me. Or that there is a power in the universe thats against me. Because if I follow a thorough plan, and still lose money I just simply dont know what else to do to become profitable and get a payout.
The moment I analyze how the market it trading, is the exact moment it changes when I implement a trading model. So if it constantly changes, then I really just feel like Im gambling. I do not trust a single fuking signal the market provides me. Every single trade I am either in or about to take is a knowing of a gut feeling that im just going to lose simply because I entered.
Im not sure what else I can do.
But, the trade of the day setups were a Prior Day 5 minute bullish fair value gap re entry
And a Prior Day 1 minute bullish orderblock long
and both of these trades had a profit target at the higher 12 hour bearish orderblock.
Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:
Stop Run and Market Open Context: The anticipated 15M and 30M fair value gap (FVG) long entry was invalidated with a stop run during the overnight session. The market then opened between the premarket high and low, signaling indecision and potential volatility, which sets the stage for trading opportunities after liquidity sweeps.
Trade of the Day Setup - Short Side: The primary setup for the day’s session was a short opportunity triggered by a sweep and retest of a 12-hour bullish-to-bearish breaker block. This setup was further strengthened by confluence with bearish H12 and H6 order blocks, confirming the downtrend bias.
Entry Strategy for Short: Entry would have required spotting a 1-minute bearish variation after the 12-hour bearish breaker block was swept, aligning the entry with a smaller timeframe that confirmed the higher timeframe bearish trend.
Conditions for Long Entry: For a counter-trend long, you would need a clear reversal signal after a sweep of the prior day’s lows. Ideal entries would involve a 1-minute bullish displacement through a bearish order block or a tighter entry on the retest of a 5-minute bullish displacement and fair value gap.
Importance of Liquidity Sweeps and Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Your notes emphasize liquidity sweeps, confluence across timeframes, and specific price action patterns (e.g., breaker blocks, displacements, and fair value gaps). These are essential elements in confirming trade direction and timing entries.
These takeaways highlight the importance of patience, precision, and multi-timeframe alignment in your strategy. For future sessions, focusing on these setups and recognizing similar conditions can help refine your entries and exits.
So from yesterdays 15 & 30M FVG confluence long entry plan, I anticipated that the long would be retested, but it was stop ran in todays overnight session.
From that stopout, the market ran the stop, and opened in the center of the premarket high and premarket low.
the trade of the day setup for the 9:30 trading session was a short side trade that came after a sweep of a retest of a bullish to bearish 12 hour breaker block. And this was also in confluence with a bearish H12 and H6 orderblock.
To get into this trade I would have needed to take a 1 minute bearish variation entry, after the sweep of the h12 bearish breaker block.
to get in long I would have needed to wait for a sweep of the prior day lows, and either take a 1 minute bullish displacement through a 1 minute bearish orderblock, or I could have gotten a tight entry with a retest of the 5 minute bullish displacement and fair value gap through the prior day low sell side liquidity.
Returning after a two-week break provided a reset after October’s challenges. The contrast between September’s strong results and October’s challenges underscored the importance of managing confidence, lowering trading volume, and refining entry rules.
Focus on Confirmation and Discipline:
Today, you focused solely on waiting for full multi-timeframe confirmation in a clear direction, which led to no trades taken, emphasizing your disciplined approach and commitment to waiting for high-probability setups.
Order Block Levels & Key Price Areas:
You identified significant market structure points, such as untapped bullish and bearish order blocks, fair value gaps, and high/low of day levels, which you naturally focus on for possible setups.
Market Observations Without Execution:
Despite recognizing potential entries, including a 1M bullish order block with high R/R potential and a 1M bearish fair value gap for shorts, you held back due to higher timeframe uptrends after recent highs. Your caution in avoiding countertrend trades despite tempting setups shows improved risk management.
Complex Structure in Price Action:
The session’s movements highlighted complex interactions between order blocks and fair value gaps across multiple timeframes (e.g., 2H, 30M, 15M, 5M), and your decision to wait for a 2H trend reversal confirmed your focus on larger timeframe alignment.
Learning from Price Action:
Although you didn’t take a trade, you gathered valuable insights by observing the tape. These observations, like the overnight trend shift and the 2H resistance hold, deepen your understanding of price behavior and help refine future entries.
Potential Long Setup:
The long trade opportunity formed after the prior day low sweep and liquidity grab, with confluence from untested bullish fair value gaps and order blocks on the 15M and 30M timeframes, but you refrained as it lacked clear 2H trend confirmation.
Patience and Selectivity:
This session showed patience in waiting for complete confirmation across multiple timeframes and avoiding forced trades. The identified setup potential for future reference highlights your selective approach to refining trading strategies and recognizing high-probability areas.
These takeaways reflect a more methodical and cautious approach post-break, focusing on high-probability trades with strong multi-timeframe alignment and robust risk management.
Today was my first day back to trading after taking a 2 week break. After a wild month in October, failing my express funded account after having one of the best account challenge evaluations the prior month of September.
Everything I did in the month of September stopped working in the month of October, and that was a big slap in the face of reality for me. That I can never become too overconfident, and I have to dramatically take steps to lower trading volume, fine tune rules for entry, and continue further building out this trading strategy.
One thing that my subconscious mind graviate towards, is Orderblock levels, and High of Day/Low of day levels. So I simply came back to the computer today, with the mindset that I was going to wait for full, total & complete multi-timeframe confirmation in a specific direction before taking a trade.
And that resulted in me not taking any trade at all today, and just simply reading the tape. Although, there may have been an entry model today that was provided, but I wont know unless it completely plays out and then i can add it again the future.
But todays price action was as follows...
The market opened up at 6PM yesterday on a gap up, with no lower wick. So between the gap, and us not getting any pullbacks for a solid long, I decided not to participate in any long trades. And the market didnt get full confirmation for a trend shift until the shift of the 2 hour chart after moving to the downside, and from the trend shift, there was an untapped 1M bullish orderblock, that setup a massive risk reward opportunity trade with virtually no drawdown, and a 70 point move to the upside.
Now with that being said, that 1 minute bullish orderblock, actually acted as todays perfect area for a short, AFTER there was a 1 minute chart bearish fair value gap displacement to the downside through that area. But the reason I didnt want to take a short, was because all timeframes were pointing up, as we have just broken out to new all time highs on indicies upon the Trump win for presidency in 2025. And another thing to note, is that the 2 hour trend shift level that provided the long side trade in the overnight session, actually held as resistance upon the 9:30 open prior to the downside displacement on the 1 minute chart, creating the bearish fair value gap entry model for a short. and it also happened as the 2 hour candle had a shift of trend from the prior green candle to the downside, also known as a candle variation.
And as price action played out, it wound up sweeping the prior day low to the downside, and created that potential long side entry model with the confluence between the 15 minute and 30 minute bullish fair value gaps.
The only thing is that I didnt want to take those longs either, because I was still waiting for confirmation of the reversal of the 2 hour downtrend again to the upside.
Funny thing is, there are still 5 minute and 1 minute orderblocks and fair value gaps below that have went untested, which is the reason why I didnt take the long trade either.
The 5 minute bullish fair value gap entry, aligns with the stopout of the 30 minute chart candle.
The long that was presented OTD was the first retest of the first timeframe that aligned with the move up after the sweep of liquidity of the prior day low.
And there was an auction between a newly created bearish 30 minute orderblock, and a bullish 30 minute orderblock trend shift that took place against that bearish orderblock.
what happened next is that after the bullish 30 minute orderblock was created, it rejected off of the bearish 30 minute orderblock, to come back for a break and retest entry on a 15 minute bullish fair value gap, that was in exact confluence with the untested 30 minute bullish orderblock for the perfect long entry.
This was prior to shifting the bearish trend of the 1 hour and 2 hour charts on the day.
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