9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bottom VWAP Long, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Low StopLoss, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, Playbook , Pre Market Low Stoploss, Pre Market Open Long, Pre Market Open Reaction,

Trade Of The Day Setup - July 8, 2024

Market Conditions and Setup:

• Difficulty of the Session: Acknowledge that the trading day was tough, with challenges like being stopped out of a prior long.
• Entry Signal: Identified a long entry opportunity around the premarket open (PMO), which coincided with a stop run that turned out to be the low of the day.
• Additional Signals: Utilized an M1 TTM squeeze long signal and a test of the lower VWAP band for entry confirmation.

Learnings and Adjustments:

• Referring Back to Setups: Recognize the value of documenting and referring back to "Trade of the Day" setups for future trading sessions. This approach helps in anticipating similar setups and improving execution.
• Predominant Trend: Reflect on the importance of identifying and following the predominant long bias trend, which was supported by bullish signals from weekly, daily, and H12 charts.
• Strategy Adjustment: Plan to adhere closely to the bullish trend premise in upcoming sessions to potentially capitalize on similar setups.

Moving Forward:

• Learning from Challenges: Take lessons from the tough trading session to refine strategies and improve decision-making.
• Consistency in Approach: Maintain discipline in analyzing and executing trades based on identified setups and trend biases.
• Preparation: Continue using historical setups and market analysis to prepare for future trading opportunities effectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade Of The Day Setup 7/08/2024

Todays trading session was very difficult. I was stopped out of a prior long and that stop run was actually the low around the PMO(premarketopen) where the long of the day entry was provided. I also had other signals like a M1 TTM squeeze long signal, and a test of the lower VWAP band for an entry. So next time this type of trading day/setup is in play, I will use this trade of the day concept to refer back to a likely setup that can play out again in the future. 

I could have figured that the predominant trend would still remain long biased due to the fact that the superior trend remained bullish from the weekly, daily and h12 charts. I have to follow this premise tomorrow so that I can bounce back. 

8:30 DATA, 8:30 Data High Break (M5 Candle Range), H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish to Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation After Data, Playbook , PMH breakout, Premarket Open Retest, Prior ATH Break and Retest,

No Trade Day Notes

Reason for No Trade:

• Due to the 4th of July week and market closing early.
• Noted a correlation between multiple day daily open prints and previous trading losses.

Observations:

• Today's trading setup appeared unmanipulated and straightforward.
• Presented a potential trend day opportunity with:
  • Simple confirmation signals: Data/PMH (Previous Market High)/Multiple trend candle shifts.

Considerations for Future Trades:

• Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
• Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
• Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.

Learnings:

• Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
• Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day.

Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss. 

But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.

It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend. 

Bearish Premarket, Bottom VWAP Long, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Low Hold, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation PML, Support Turned Resistance Fakeout, Turtle Soup, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

What You Did Well

1. Line in the Sand Identification: Successfully identified the critical price level, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance.'
2. Adapting to Market Conditions: After being stopped out, you were able to pivot and take a trade in the opposite direction, showing flexibility.
3. Stop Loss Management: Properly placed and adhered to stop losses, maintaining discipline in risk management.
4. Recognizing Trade Signals: Understanding the importance of the initial trend shift (A side setup) and how subsequent retests (B, C, etc.) weaken the setup.

Areas for Improvement

1. Morning Routine: Waking up past your alarm again is a recurring issue. This needs to be addressed to ensure you're prepared for the trading day.
2. Entry Quality: Took low probability trades away from desired entry points, which led to unnecessary losses.
3. Position Sizing: Took on too heavy of a contract size, going against your position size calculator recommendations.
4. Trade Execution: Placing a limit order short against session open volume instead of using a buy stop to flip the trade thesis was a mistake.
5. Trade Management: Covered the trade too early, missing out on potential profits. Could have managed the trade better by taking off partial positions and leaving runners.
6. Data Awareness: Not marking data drops on candles led to misinterpretations of market movements.

Key Takeaways

1. Default Timeframe Execution: The distinction between H4, H6, and H12 trends shows the need for a clear execution model. Default timeframes seem to offer better clarity for entries.
2. Trend Confirmation: The initial trend break (A setup) is stronger, and retests (B, C, etc.) become progressively weaker. This insight should guide your trade selections.
3. Data Marking: Marking data drops on candles is crucial to understand market reactions and avoid misinterpreting moves.

Action Plan

1. Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:

   • Improve your alarm setup, possibly using multiple alarms or a more disruptive alarm system to ensure you wake up on time.
   • Ensure you're getting adequate rest to avoid oversleeping.

2. Refine Entry Strategy:

   • Stick to high probability entries near desired levels.
   • Use buy/sell stops to enter trades rather than limit orders against session volume.

3. Position Sizing Discipline:

   • Strictly adhere to the position size calculator to avoid taking on excessive risk.
   • If a trade requires a heavier size, ensure it's justified by a higher probability setup.

4. Data Awareness:

   • Mark data release times on your charts to anticipate potential market reactions.
   • Adjust your strategy based on these data points to avoid getting caught in unexpected moves.

Example Day Plan

1. Morning Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release, preferably 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform your premarket analysis, marking key data release times on your charts.

2. Market Analysis:

   • Identify the prevailing trend using H4 and H6 for precise entries, while using H12 for overall market context.
   • Focus on A side setups for higher probability trades.

3. Trading Session:

   • Execute trades based on high probability entries near desired levels, using buy/sell stops.
   • Adhere to position size limits and manage trades by taking partial profits and leaving runners.

By addressing these areas for improvement and refining your strategy based on these insights, you'll enhance your trading performance and maintain discipline. Keep up the diligent journaling and continuous refinement of your approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I ended up breakeven on the day with 3 loser and 1 winner. I did many things wrong today.

(THINGS DONE WRONG)

1. Waking up past my alarm again. Unnaceptable

2. Taking 2 low probability first trades that were away from my desired entry. 

3. Taking too heavy of contract size according to my position size calculator

4. Putting a limit order short at the potential support turned resistance against session open volume, when could have placed a buy stop and flipped my trade thesis

5. Covering the trade far too early, just to break even on the day. I could have taken off 2 contracts of the 3 I had, and left 1 runner.

6. Taking 2 irrelevant trades.

7. Not marking the DATA drops on candles.

 

TELLS that trade would flip

- According to Lance B, the A side of each trade setup is upon the inital trend shift, with each retest become less and less strong of a setup. SO, the initial trend break would be considered the 'A' setup, the break and retest would be considered the 'B' setup, and any retests after that would become C/D etc.

- Upon this initial bearish trend shift on the H4 and H6 charts, The H12, Daily, Weekly ETC still had bullish trending higher lows and higher higher on their candles, my thought process was that, because the H4 and H6 candles shifted bearish, there would be a chance that we can trade into the prior 12 hour low as that would be the bearish draw on liquidity from the H6 bearish trend shift. 

- ALSO, I had made the destinction that it would likely have been smarter to implement a 'Default Timeframe' execution model, which means that the H4 trend shift should have provided a daily low draw on liquidity for bears, but because the prior H12 low was never retested for a bearish draw on liquidity, that means that it was a significant contributing factor for todays bullish continuation to the upside. The best thing to do will be to track data on this, and adjust as we go along, because although yesterday the H12 trend happened later in the session, with lower R/R return from the point of entry, it still ended up higher than where the initial entry trigger suggest, closing higher than the point of entry on the day. SO, while it may not provide the best R/R potential from the point of confirmation, it still may insist on a higher probability in terms of directional bias. 

This H4 low break and trap also took place yesterday (July 2nd 2024) and had the exact same setup, which is most regarded as the 'Turtle Soup' Setup or a 'Potential Support Turned Resistance', The only difference was that yesterday was an H12 potential bearish trend shift, and that meant it could have swept the prior daily low as a liquidity draw. 

Its also very clear that upon the 9:30 session open, the DATA released at 8:15 & 8:30 had been immediately reversed and bought up, so I think it will be beneficial to mark out these data drops on the candle OPEN in the future

(THINGS I DID RIGHT)

- Properly identifying where the 'line in the sand' was OTD, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance'

- Cutting the limit order I had short at the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance' at the correct stoploss of the H6 candle high at that time. 

- Taking a trade in the other direction from which I was initially stopped out of

- Placing the correct stoploss on the trade at the 'Line in the sand' OTD on the 2nd trade and sticking to it.

 

BOTTOM LINE, that line in the sand was the most likely price to be tested upon session open BECAUSE, it would have been the best area for shorts to stab at the trade for a continuation through the lows, and confirmation if broken and held above the the longs.

SO IN THE FUTURE, 'Define the A SIDE SETUP, for the LINE IN THE SAND, on each days trading session

If we took the correct play on todays trading session, we could have profited almost $300 and avoided 2 pointless losses.