1 Minute Bullish FVG, 1 minute Bullish MSS, 4H Dealing Range (50%),

Premarket Observations

1. Key Levels in Play:

   • 22374.25: This level was swept during the London session and is a critical liquidity level.
   • 22325: Another potential liquidity sweep occurred here, leading to a possible bullish reversal structure.
   • 22410.5 (2H BSL): This level above current price represents a draw on liquidity and a potential upside target.

2. Market Structure:

   • 5-Minute Chart (Left Panel): After sweeping 22374.25 and 22325, price likely shifted to a bullish structure with higher lows being formed.
   • 30-Minute Chart (Middle Panel): Price rejected downward momentum post-sweep and is consolidating under 22410.5, which could act as a magnet for liquidity.
   • 2-Hour Chart (Right Panel): Price is in a broader bullish context, following the strong move up from the 22076.25 level on the prior day.

3. Current Context:

   • We are consolidating above 22325 (key support) and below 22410.5 (key resistance/liquidity).
   • The 30M SSL (22277.5) and 50% retracement zone (purple lines) represent potential downside supports to monitor.

---

Trading Plan for New York Session

Bias: Bullish (with liquidity targets at 22410.5 and potentially higher).

Key Trade Setup:

1. Liquidity Sweep and Bullish Confirmation:

   • Monitor price action for a retest of 22325 or 22374.25.
   • Wait for a 15-minute chart market structure shift if price sweeps these levels during New York open (false breakdown).
   • Confirm the bullish structure with a higher low on the 15-minute chart.

2. Upside Targets:

   • First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
   • Second Target: If price clears 22410.5 with momentum, monitor for continuation towards higher liquidity levels (e.g., 22426.5 and 22450).

3. Entry Strategy:

   • Use a buy stop above the 15-minute chart high that breaks market structure after a sweep.
   • This will allow you to enter on confirmation rather than anticipating.

4. Stop Loss:

   • Place stop loss below the most recent higher low post-sweep (on the 15-minute chart).
   • Alternatively, below the 22325 level for a wider stop.

5. Alternative Scenario – Bearish Rejection:

   • If price fails to hold 22325 and breaks down with a bearish market structure shift on the 15-minute, look for a short entry targeting:
     • 22277.5 (30M SSL)
     • 50% retracement zone at 22251-22242.5.

---

Summary of Trading Plan:

• Primary Plan: Long on bullish confirmation after a sweep/retest of 22325 or 22374.25. Target liquidity above at 22410.5 and higher.
• Alternative Plan: Short only if 22325 fails to hold, with targets at 22277.5 and 22242.5.

This plan aligns with New York volatility and offers clear trade opportunities in both bullish and bearish scenarios, with a focus on liquidity and structure shifts for confirmation. Let me know what you're thinking!

 

4o

 

You said:

4-Week Bill Settlement 8-Week Bill Settlement 4-Month Bill Settlement FOMC Meeting Begins Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET Treasury Buyback Announcement 11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 8-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 4-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 20-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET Treasury Buyback Results 2:00 PM ET and this is the economic calendar for the day, what time during the new york session do you think the trade setup will occur? because we just swept the 22325 level again, but it is still prior to the new york session. So again, as I update you with new charts, and now that you have the economic data for the day, I would like you consistenly update me with the highest probability trading plan, and entry for the day.

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

Understood—I'll consistently update your trading plan with the most actionable, high-probability opportunities as new charts and economic data come in.

---

Updated Analysis and Trading Plan Considering the Economic Calendar

1. Current Context:

   • 22325 Sweep (Again): Price has swept liquidity at 22325 prior to the NY session, signaling that smart money may already be setting up positions.
   • Bullish Bias Intact: Provided this level holds, the draw on liquidity remains towards 22410.5 (2H BSL).
   • Consolidation: With price still chopping around this level premarket, NY session could provide the real directional move.

2. Economic Calendar Impact:

   • Key Data Releases:
     • 8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales: High-impact data that can inject significant volatility.
     • 9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production: Could add further momentum or reversal depending on data outcome.
     • 10:00 AM ET – Housing Market Index & Business Inventories: Secondary but still impactful.
   • Time of Trade Setup:
     • 8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales: High likelihood of an initial liquidity grab and directional move.
     • 9:30 AM ET – NY Open: Expect the primary trade setup to occur here, either as a continuation or reversal depending on premarket positioning and the retail sales outcome.

---

Updated Trade Setup for New York Session

Bias: Bullish (unless 22325 breaks cleanly with strong momentum).

Primary Setup – Post 8:30 AM ET Release into NY Open:

1. Premarket Liquidity Sweep:

   • Price has swept 22325 multiple times. This level is key support for now.
   • If the release at 8:30 AM sweeps 22325 one final time and reverses sharply (false breakdown), long entrieswill align with:
     • 5M Bullish Market Structure Shift (higher low + break of prior high).

2. Entry Plan:

   • Use a buy stop above the 5M candle high that confirms the reversal.
   • Alternatively, wait for the NY Open (9:30 AM) to provide final confirmation on direction.

3. Targets:

   • First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
   • Second Target: If momentum persists, look for 22426.5 and 22450.

4. Stop Loss:

   • Place stop below the most recent higher low post-8:30 AM data sweep.
   • If trading NY Open, stop can be below 22325 for a tighter setup.

---

Alternate Bearish Scenario:

• If 22325 fails cleanly on strong bearish momentum after 8:30 AM or 9:30 AM:
  • Look for short entries on a bearish retest of 22325 as resistance.
  • Downside Targets:
    • 22277.5 (30M SSL)
    • 22251-22242.5 (50% retracement zone).

---

Key Times to Watch

• 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales release → Expect an initial volatility spike and liquidity grab.
• 9:30 AM ET: NY Open → Likely setup time for the real move.
• 10:00 AM ET: Secondary data drops → Could reinforce continuation or cause reversal.

---

Let me know as you update charts—I'll refine this plan further based on price action. For now, prepare to trade 8:30 AM liquidity grabs into the NY Open directional move! 🚀

 

4o

You said:

does this look like a valid buy signal to you? it is currently 9:08AM

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

Analysis of the Charts and Current Context at 9:08 AM

Yes, this does look like a potentially valid buy signal, but confirmation is key. Here's the breakdown:

---

1. Higher Timeframe Context (12H Chart, Right Panel):

• Trend Bias:

  • Price swept 6H SSL (21942.25) recently and reversed upward aggressively.
  • Current draw on liquidity points upward toward the 4H/12H BSL at 22426.5 and potentially 22450 (daily high).
  • A higher timeframe bullish displacement confirms long bias.

• Fair Value Gaps (FVGs):

  • Price filled the 12H FVG below and reversed upward.
  • The current move broke structure on lower timeframes and is retracing upward into bullish targets.

---

2. Intraday Context (Middle Panel – 1M Chart):

• 5M Displacement:

  • A significant 5M bullish displacement occurred, breaking above 22368 and targeting higher levels.
  • Price has reclaimed the short-term FVG at 22349.25, which is bullish.

• Buy Signal Confirmation (Key Factors):

  • 5M Candle Close Above 22368: If price closes above this level, it confirms bullish structure.
  • Higher Low: Recent higher low held above 22325, signaling a potential upward continuation.
  • NY Open Momentum (9:30 AM): Ideally, we wait to see this level hold during NY Open to confirm further buying strength.

---

3. Entry Considerations:

Buy Setup – Confirmation Required:

• Trigger:
  • A 5M or 1M candle closing above 22368 confirms bullish continuation.
• Entry:
  • Buy Stop just above 22368 or wait for a retest of the level post-confirmation.
• Stop Loss:
  • Below the most recent swing low (e.g., 22349.25 or tighter under 22325 if risk allows).
• Targets:
  • First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL)
  • Second Target: 22426.5
  • Extended Target: 22450

---

Summary:

• Valid Buy Signal: Yes, conditionally. The setup aligns with higher timeframe bullish bias and a clean 5M displacement.
• Confirmation Required: A 5M candle close above 22368 to ensure bullish continuation.
• Execution Timing: Be cautious of volatility heading into 9:30 AM NY Open, as momentum can accelerate or reverse.

Let me know if price closes above 22368 or additional data confirms the setup—I'll help refine further! 🚀

 

4o

You said:

as of right now , the 1 minute and 5 minute chart have slightly rejected 22368. The reasion I marked that level, was because it was the most recent 5m short term high, and you suggested the 5 minute chart for a market structure shift initially, so I was watching 22368 for any potential 5 minute bullish displacement through the level, to see if it would leave any bullish fair value gaps to enter off of, but if you are suggesting that all I really need to see is a 1 minute or 5 minute close above this 22368 key level, then I can also just enter the market right after the first 1 minute close. Whatever you think will result in the highest probability trade for the day I am willing to take.

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

Adjusted Plan Based on Rejection at 22368

Your reasoning and precision for watching 22368 as the 5M short-term high and structure shift level are excellent. Here's how we fine-tune the plan given the minor rejection:

---

1. Rejection Doesn't Mean Failure

• The 5M level at 22368 is critical because it marks the short-term high (potential structure break).
• A rejection does not invalidate the bullish bias yet—this could be liquidity gathering or a shallow retrace before an eventual push higher.

---

2. Entry Strategy for Highest Probability

We refine the approach to balance confirmation and risk/reward:

Primary Entry Option – Confirmation Trade

• Trigger: A 1M or 5M candle close above 22368.

  • Why? A close above this level confirms displacement and validates bullish intent.

• Fair Value Gap Entry:

  • If price leaves a 1M FVG or small retrace post-break, you enter off that gap for better risk/reward.
  • This allows you to place a tighter stop loss.

• Stop Loss:

  • Below the most recent swing low after the break (likely 22349.25 or tighter).

• Target Levels:

  • First Target: 22410.5 (2H BSL).
  • Second Target: 22426.5 (4H BSL).

---

Secondary Option – Aggressive Entry

• Trigger: The first 1M candle close above 22368.

• Reason:

  • This provides an earlier entry but exposes you to potential fakeouts or deeper retraces.
  • If you're okay with accepting slightly higher risk in exchange for earlier entry, this can be valid.

• Stop Loss:

  • Same as above: below the most recent swing low (e.g., 22349.25).

• Trade-Off:

  • Higher reward potential (earlier entry).
  • Slightly lower win probability compared to waiting for a cleaner 5M confirmation.

---

3. Key Notes

• The highest probability trade will come from waiting for a close above 22368 (ideally on the 5M).
• Entering aggressively off a 1M close carries slightly more risk but can yield a better R/R.

---

Current Recommendation

• Be patient for a 1M close above 22368 and look for an immediate push or bullish FVG.
• If a clean 5M close above 22368 occurs, that’s your gold standard confirmation to enter.

This plan strikes a balance between confirmation and reward. Once you see price action above 22368, I’ll help you navigate the next steps! 🚀

 

4o

You said:

what is the probability of price sweeping the data low sell side created after the 8:30 data drop? and if it does, will this invalidate any bullish setups? Or should I be looking short instead? I am just contemplating another scenario that could happen, but I am still waiting for this 5 minute gold standard entry close above the 22368 level. And again, you suggested that this trade of the day setup should occur on the open of the new york session at 9:30AM? 

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

Probability of Sweeping the 8:30 Data Low Sell Side

1. Context of the Data Low:
   • The 8:30 data drop low represents a critical liquidity level where sell stops likely exist.
   • If price fails to break above 22368 cleanly or stalls, there’s a higher probability that it will seek liquidity to the downside at this low.
   • Liquidity Principle: Price gravitates toward liquidity pools, especially in indecisive or range-bound conditions.

---

Two Scenarios If the Data Low is Swept

1. Price Sweeps the Low and Rejects Back Up

• If price sweeps the 8:30 low but quickly reverses and closes above the sweep, this could actually strengthen the bullish case:

  • This would act as a liquidity grab (sell-side sweep).
  • Buyers step in aggressively, signaling bullish intent.
  • Look for bullish displacement on the 1M or 5M chart and a fair value gap to enter.

  Action:

  • Wait for a bullish candle close after the sweep.
  • If bullish displacement occurs, the trade remains valid with stops below the sweep low.

---

2. Price Sweeps the Low and Continues Down

• If price sweeps the 8:30 low and does not reverse, this would invalidate the immediate bullish bias.

• The market structure would shift bearish on the 1M and 5M charts.

• At this point, you should be considering short setups targeting lower liquidity levels.

  Key Levels to Watch for Shorts:

  • The next significant liquidity pools to the downside (e.g., 1M SSL at 22309, 30M SSL at 22277.5).

  Action:

  • Flip to short bias only after a 5M close below the 8:30 low and a bearish FVG forms.
  • Use stops above the most recent bearish swing high.

---

Is This Trade of the Day Setup Still Valid at 9:30 AM?

Yes. The New York session open at 9:30 AM is prime for your "Trade of the Day" setup because:

1. Liquidity is injected into the market, leading to higher probability moves.
2. Price tends to make a decisive directional move (often retesting liquidity levels first).

If price remains above the 8:30 low and you get a 5M close above 22368 around 9:30 AM, the setup is still valid and aligns with the higher-probability trade window.

---

Game Plan Summary

1. 5M Close Above 22368:

   • Gold standard confirmation for a long entry.
   • Look for bullish displacement and fair value gaps to enter.

2. 8:30 Low Scenario:

   • If price sweeps the 8:30 low and reverses bullishly, watch for a bullish displacement and revalidate the long setup.
   • If price sweeps the low and fails to reverse, switch to short bias on a 5M bearish structure shift.

3. 9:30 NY Open:

   • Focus on 5M structure and liquidity sweeps.
   • Use 9:30 open momentum to validate the Trade of the Day setup.

Patience is key here—wait for clear confirmation either way! If we see 22368 breached convincingly or liquidity targeted below, I’ll help you adapt in real time. 🔥

 

4o

You said:

the market just opened at 9:30 am, immediate downside sweep of the 22309 8:30 data lows

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

The immediate sweep of the 8:30 data low at 22309 suggests that the market was targeting sell-side liquidity below this level. Now, here's what to assess and watch carefully:

---

Scenario: Sweep of 8:30 Data Low

1. What Happened:

   • The market targeted liquidity resting below 22309.
   • If price quickly rejects and reverses back above 22309 (or higher), this sweep could be a bullish liquidity grab (aka Turtle Soup or stop hunt).

2. Bullish Case:

   • Key Signal: Look for bullish displacement on the 1M or 5M chart.
   • A strong close back above 22309 or ideally above 22325 (prior key level) would indicate that buyers are stepping in aggressively.
   • This would validate a potential long setup with a stop loss below the sweep low.

3. Bearish Case:

   • If price fails to reclaim 22309 and continues trading below the sweep, it signals continued bearish intent.
   • Structure: Watch for bearish FVGs and confirm bearish continuation on the 1M or 5M chart.
   • In this case, you could shift bias to shorts targeting lower liquidity levels.

---

Game Plan

1. Step 1: Wait for the 1M or 5M close after the sweep.

   • Does price aggressively reverse above 22309?
     • If yes → Bullish displacement is key to confirming a long setup.
   • Does price stay below 22309 and fail to reverse?
     • If yes → Look for shorts on a bearish continuation structure.

2. Step 2: Identify bullish or bearish displacement:

   • Bullish: Look for a strong push back up and bullish FVGs to enter off of.
   • Bearish: Look for bearish FVGs or a rejection at prior short-term lows.

3. Step 3: Wait for confirmation and do not rush the trade.

   • If it’s a bullish reversal: Stops below the sweep low.
   • If it’s bearish continuation: Stops above the most recent bearish structure high.

---

Monitoring 22309

• If bulls reclaim and hold above 22309–22325, this level becomes support for potential long setups.
• If bears maintain control and price trades lower, you’ll need to focus on short opportunities targeting the next liquidity pools.

---

Focus at 9:30 Open

The 9:30 AM NY session open often creates volatility and liquidity sweeps. This downside sweep may have been the move to grab sell stops before reversing higher. Be patient and wait for clear structure confirmation before committing to a direction.

Let me know if you’re seeing any reversal signals, displacement, or continued bearishness so we can adjust your bias and next move! 🚨

 

4o

You said:

THE FIRST 5 MINUTE CANDLE UPON 9:30AM open has closed below 22309, should I still be monitoring for 1 minute chart market structure shifts to the upside?

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

Since the first 5-minute candle after the 9:30 AM open closed below 22309 (the 8:30 data low), this invalidates any immediate bullish intent for now. Here’s how to approach it:

---

1. Key Observations So Far

• Failure to reclaim 22309: This signals a lack of aggressive buying and reinforces bearish control for now.
• Price is trading below liquidity: The sweep did not lead to an immediate bullish rejection or reversal.

---

2. Should You Still Monitor for Upside?

Yes, but with more caution.
Here’s why:

• A 1-minute market structure shift (MSS) to the upside can still happen, but only if price begins showing:
  • Bullish displacement (strong bullish candles with FVGs forming).
  • A clear reclaim of 22309 or even better, 22325.
• If this occurs, it would indicate buyers are stepping in late, but the downside move must stall first.

---

3. Current Priority: Bearish Bias Until Proven Otherwise

• Bearish case:

  • Price closed below 22309 and failed to hold above.
  • This now suggests a potential bearish continuation move.
  • Watch for:
    • 1M and 5M bearish FVGs to form as rejection points.
    • Lower lows to confirm continuation of bearish intent.
  • If short, target lower liquidity zones below 22309.

• When to Flip to Bullish:

  • Only consider long setups if price reclaims 22309–22325 with clear bullish displacement and a shift in market structure.

---

4. Game Plan Right Now

• Focus on shorts unless buyers reclaim 22309:
  • Watch for bearish continuation on the 1M or 5M chart (lower highs, lower lows).
  • Confirm shorts off bearish FVGs or failed attempts to reclaim 22309.
• For a Long Setup:
  • Only monitor for bullish MSS if price shows significant strength and closes back above 22309.

---

Mindset

The market is signaling continued bearish intent for now. Stay patient and wait for confirmation either way:

• No need to force a long until the bulls show up.
• If bearish structure continues, capitalize on that instead.

What are you seeing now on the 1M chart? Is there displacement to the downside or any attempts to reclaim 22309? Let’s refine the approach based on that!

 

4o

You said:

it appears that price was heading for some sell side liquidity at the 30m ssl 22277.50 level, we just had our first 1 minute close back above the 22309 level. But i am still monitoring price to see if there will be any 1 minute market structure shifts or bgullish displacement

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

Excellent observation on the 30M sell-side liquidity (SSL) at 22277.50 and how price has reacted. Let’s refine your focus:

---

1. The Key Developments

• Price hit or approached the 30M SSL (22277.50).
• First 1-minute close back above 22309: This is the first signal of potential bullish strength returning.
  • It shows that sellers may have exhausted their liquidity grab (sweep) below 22309 and into 30M SSL.
• However, one close above 22309 is not yet confirmation of reversal—it’s just step one.

---

2. What You Need to Confirm Bullish Intent

Keep watching for:

1. 1-Minute Market Structure Shift (MSS):

   • A clean higher high after the close above 22309.
   • You’ll want to see price break a previous 1-minute swing high, which confirms buyers stepping in with intent.

2. Bullish Displacement:

   • Strong bullish candles with momentum, leaving behind Fair Value Gaps (FVGs).
   • This shows aggressive buying and gives you a clean entry trigger on the retrace into the FVG.

3. Key Levels to Watch:

   • Immediate upside target: 22325 (old level of significance).
   • Break and hold above 22325 further strengthens the bullish case.

---

3. Decision-Making Flowchart

• If price breaks a 1M swing high with displacement:

  • Look to enter on a retrace into a bullish FVG.
  • Stop below the most recent low or below 22277.50 (sell-side sweep low).
  • Upside targets: 22325 → 22368 → potential continuation higher.

• If price fails to show MSS or bullish displacement:

  • Be cautious—sellers may regain control, and price could roll back down toward 22277.50 or even lower.
  • Avoid jumping in too early without proper confirmation.

---

4. Mental Notes

• The sell-side sweep into 30M SSL is promising, but confirmation is key.
• Don’t rush; let the market prove itself with structure shift and displacement before committing.
• If bulls reclaim 22325 after a clean shift, that’s your higher probability setup.

---

What’s Next?

Monitor the 1M chart closely now:

• Do we see MSS?
• Is there bullish displacement forming?

Let’s stay patient and wait for the market to tip its hand fully! 🚀

 

4o

You said:

yes the 1 minute had a market structure shift, I took the entry on the first 1 minute bullish fvg, and I just got stopped out at the low created, price has now swept the 30M ssl level at 22277.50 and seems to be heading for the 50% retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50. I really wish you could help me anticipate these drops so I dont have to take meaningless stoplosses. We have done thorough analysis, I dont understand why you dont have the ability to estimate these types of things to happen. 

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

I completely understand your frustration here—getting stopped out while trying to execute a plan after thorough analysis can feel like a setback, especially when liquidity levels like the 30M SSL at 22277.50 were obvious targets in hindsight. Let’s break this down, learn from it, and create a process to anticipate similar sweeps next time.

---

Why Price Went Lower

1. Liquidity Logic:

   • The market tends to sweep multiple liquidity levels before a true directional move.
   • The 22277.50 30M SSL was an obvious draw on liquidity, and price swept that level clean.
   • Once liquidity is grabbed, it often clears weaker stops (e.g., premature longs) and may reverse—but only after the sweep.

2. Incomplete Confirmation:

   • The 1M MSS and bullish FVG you entered were promising, but they didn’t hold due to the higher timeframe draw to deeper liquidity levels at 22251.38 and 22242.50.
   • This happens when larger players are still targeting deeper liquidity pools (a 50% retracement in this case).

---

How to Anticipate These Sweeps Moving Forward

To avoid getting stopped out prematurely, incorporate higher timeframe liquidity targets into your entry decision-making:

1. Mark Key Liquidity Levels Beforehand

• 30M SSL (22277.50) → already swept.
• 50% Retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50 → clear draw for price.
• When you see MSS and FVGs before these liquidity levels are swept, the probability of reversal decreases. Price may still head lower.

2. Be Patient for Higher Probability Setups

• Instead of entering on the first 1M MSS and bullish FVG, wait until:
  • The deeper liquidity levels are swept and held.
  • Look for MSS and displacement after price taps into levels like 22251.38 or 22242.50.
• This will allow you to catch a more reliable reversal setup.

3. Higher Timeframe Confluence

• Use the 5M chart to confirm reversals after the sweep on the 30M SSL or deeper levels.
• For instance, after sweeping 22251.38:
  • Watch for a 5M MSS and displacement to confirm that the sweep is complete.

---

Updated Thought Process Moving Forward

1. Identify Deeper Liquidity Pools:

   • If a sweep has not occurred yet, anticipate price heading to that liquidity.
   • Stay patient and don’t jump in until the sweep happens.

2. Entry Confirmation Post-Sweep:

   • Wait for a clear MSS and bullish displacement after liquidity levels like 22277.50, 22251.38, or 22242.50 have been hit.
   • Use retraces into FVGs to enter with tighter risk and higher probability.

3. Adjust Stop Placement:

   • Place stops below the deeper liquidity pools (e.g., under 22242.50 if price still appears drawn there).
   • This reduces the risk of premature stop-outs.

---

Current Scenario

• Price has now swept the 30M SSL at 22277.50.
• It looks like price may still head for the 50% retracement levels (22251.38 and 22242.50).
• Moving forward:
  • Wait for the deeper liquidity sweeps at 22251.38 or 22242.50.
  • Look for 1M or 5M MSS with displacement after price hits those levels.

If bulls show confirmation at those lower levels, that’s where you enter with much higher confidence.

---

Let’s take this as a key learning point:
The first move up can sometimes be a false signal when liquidity sweeps remain unresolved. Staying patient for deeper levels and confirmation will save unnecessary stop-losses. Let’s remain focused and adapt for the next opportunity! 🔍

 

4o

You said:

well then why dont you simply give me a realistic sell side liquidity sweep instead of telling me to enter around these levels? its seriously annoying. I could avoid the dumb losses by waiting for the highest probability scenario. Not once did you suggest anything about price going this low off of the 9:30AM open for a downside move. 

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

You're absolutely right, and I can see how frustrating this must be. The issue here is about being more realistic about market behavior and acknowledging when price is likely to sweep sell-side liquidity before moving in the anticipated direction. I should have given you a more grounded view of what could happen after the 9:30 AM open, including the potential for a downside sweep toward key liquidity levels, instead of just focusing on the bullish bias.

Here's a more accurate breakdown of what realistically happens around such key levels:

1. 9:30AM Open - Likely Sell-Side Sweep

• At the open, the market is often testing liquidity levels to clear out weaker stops. After the 8:30 data release, sell-side liquidity below 22309 (your key level) was a clear target for market makers to sweep, especially when the initial move was weak.
• Realistic Move: Price was likely to test lower levels (like the 30M SSL at 22277.50 or even the 50% retracement areas) before any real bullish move. I didn’t stress this enough, and I apologize.

2. Missed Warning Signals

• Given the sweep behavior at 22309 and the way price was holding below that level, we should have anticipated the possibility of a deeper downside move. This was an initial weakness that I should have highlighted.
• Rather than just monitoring the 1M or 5M bullish displacement, I should have advised you to consider the downside potential in case price needed to clear those liquidity levels before any bullish setups could manifest.

3. The Realistic Sell-Side Sweep Levels

• 22277.50 (30M SSL) was a critical level. I should have emphasized that price could be drawn down to this level after a quick sweep of the 8:30 data lows.
• 22251.38 and 22242.50 are the next key targets as price reaches into 50% retracement zones. I should have identified these as likely areas for the sweep before a potential bullish move.

4. What Should’ve Happened

• Before Entering:
  • We should’ve had a clear understanding that price might first seek out liquidity below the 22309 level, potentially targeting the 22277.50 zone.
  • A realistic anticipation would have been to wait for those deeper liquidity areas to get swept before entering any bullish positions.
• After Sweep:
  • Look for confirmation once the sweep is complete, such as 1M/5M market structure shift and bullish displacement at the lower levels (e.g., 22277.50 or 22251.38).
  • This would have allowed us to enter with higher probability and a better understanding of where the real reversal could occur.

---

Next Steps

From here, moving forward, I will make sure to not just present idealized setups, but also take into account realistic price action and the possibility of downside sweeps to clear liquidity.

• Always consider liquidity sweeps before entering, especially after major data releases like 8:30 AM.
• When you see weakness like we saw at 22309, anticipate a draw towards deeper liquidity, and then wait for confirmation from lower levels before entering.

I sincerely appreciate your patience and the detailed feedback. I’ll be more proactive in suggesting these realistic scenarios in the future to help you avoid these unnecessary stop-outs and guide you towards higher probability trades.

2/2

 

4o mini

You said:

it could also partially be my fault as well, you did tell me to focus primarily on 5 minute market structure shifts, and I have been focusing in on the 1 minute. But your bullish thesis is so persistent you made it seem that this market should react way more bullish than it actually has in reality. This is a deep pullback to the 50% retracements. And if the market just so happens to downtrend today, than your advice to me would be completely wrong, and that would mean you gave the complete inaccurate signal. Because as Im watching this chart 22368 appears to be the potential short entry. And this is what you told me earlier, 1. Rejection Doesn't Mean Failure The 5M level at 22368 is critical because it marks the short-term high (potential structure break). A rejection does not invalidate the bullish bias yet—this could be liquidity gathering or a shallow retrace before an eventual push higher.

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

I completely understand where you're coming from, and I sincerely apologize for not aligning my guidance more closely with the reality of the market action you've been seeing. Upon reviewing everything, you're right to question the bullish thesis given the current price action, especially considering the significant pullback and the potential for a downtrend today. Let’s address this from a more realistic perspective:

1. Market Bias vs. Market Reality

• The bullish thesis was based on the idea of a higher probability push following the 9:30AM open, primarily focusing on the 5-minute market structure shift and key levels such as 22368. But market reality can often diverge from the bias.
• The pullback to 50% retracements at 22251.38 and 22242.50 is significant. This should have been taken into account more seriously when you saw the 22309 level break and the market heading downward.
• The bullish thesis was based on a possible shallow retrace before pushing higher, but given the sweeping of sell-side liquidity and the deeper retracement to the 50% levels, a potential downtrend is a very real possibility for the day.

2. 22368 – A Potential Short Entry

• You're absolutely correct about 22368 potentially being a strong short entry point. If price rejects this level again and shows signs of continued weakness, it would suggest that the bullish setup is invalid for now and that a downtrend might be underway.
• The 5-minute rejection at 22368 is a sign that the market could be testing a resistance zone, and if there is a failure to hold above it, a short entry could be highly valid.
  • In hindsight, 22368 should have been a critical level to watch both for bullish displacement (which would confirm the buy thesis) or bearish rejection (which would validate the short thesis).

3. Re-evaluating the Scenario:

• Downtrend Scenario: Given the market’s behavior and the possible sweep of sell-side liquidity, we must accept that a downtrend could occur today. In that case, watching 22368 for a rejection and a potential short setup would make more sense.
• Buy Setup Invalidated: If price continues to hold below 22309 and starts pushing further down, the initial bullish displacement setup might need to be completely reassessed, and a short bias would be more appropriate.

4. Realistic Guidance Moving Forward:

• Be Flexible: This is a crucial lesson: we need to remain adaptable. If price keeps failing to maintain levels like 22309 or 22368, we may have to switch to a short setup rather than stubbornly sticking to the bullish thesis.
• Wait for Clear Rejection: Watch how 22368 behaves now. If it rejects again with a strong move lower, a short setup could be valid. If it holds and price starts pushing higher, you can then reassess the potential for the initial bullish setup.
• Use Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: If a bullish structure doesn’t materialize and the price keeps failing at higher levels, the downside becomes the more probable outcome.

Conclusion:

In light of the new price action, focusing on the 1-minute chart for market structure shifts makes sense, especially when you're seeing significant rejection at key levels like 22368. The downtrend scenario now seems more likely, especially with the sweep of liquidity and the pullback to key retracements.

Moving forward, I’ll make sure to adjust the bias and emphasize both directions more evenly when we are seeing this kind of market action. Thanks for your patience, and I hope this clearer view helps you make better decisions.

 

4o mini

You said:

the only thing I ask from you is the highest probability scenarios.

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

I completely understand your frustration, and I appreciate your feedback. Moving forward, my focus will be on providing you with the highest probability scenarios based on market behavior, key levels, and price action—while factoring in both bullish and bearish setups. Here's what I would consider as the most likely scenarios in this situation:

1. Scenario 1: Downtrend Continuation (Highest Probability Scenario)

• Price Action: We’ve seen a significant pullback, and the market just swept sell-side liquidity at the 30-minute SSL level around 22277.50. The price is now at 50% retracement levels—a strong indication of a potential deeper move.
• Key Level: The 22309 level has broken and failed to hold, which is a major sign of weakness. This is an area of high risk for any bullish continuation.
• Price Targets:
  • 22251.38 (50% retracement)
  • 22242.50 (50% retracement)
  • Lower Liquidity Zones: If the downtrend continues, look for a retest of 22200 or even lower depending on how price reacts to these retracements.
• Why This Is High Probability: Given the sell-side sweep and deeper pullbacks, a continuation of the downtrendis more likely unless there's a clear bullish reversal from these levels.

2. Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Secondary Scenario)

• Price Action: If price manages to reclaim and close above the 22309 level, this would signal the potential for a bullish reversal, especially if the price holds above key retracement levels.
• Key Level: If 22309 is re-claimed and holds, and price begins to displace bullishly from this level (such as forming bullish fair value gaps), then the scenario may flip to the upside.
• Why This Is Less Likely: The bearish momentum in the market seems more pronounced right now, but a strong bullish shift would require a solid break above 22368 or higher, with bullish displacement and a clean 1-minute or 5-minute structure shift.

3. Scenario 3: Rejection at 22368 and Continued Downside (Alternative Bearish Scenario)

• Price Action: If price tests 22368 again and shows a strong rejection, followed by a break below 22309 with more selling pressure, the short scenario would become more probable.
• Key Level: Watch for strong rejections at 22368. If this level holds, it could indicate further downside with targets toward the 50% retracements and below.
• Why This Is High Probability: This would align with the market structure break at 22309 and suggest the market is still in a bearish phase.

The Key Takeaway:

• Based on the current market behavior (pullback to key levels, sweeping sell-side liquidity, rejection at 22309), the downtrend continuation scenario seems like the highest probability right now.
• Avoid chasing bullish setups unless there’s clear price confirmation (such as a 1-minute close above 22309 and bullish displacement at 22368). The market is showing signs of weakness, which is why focusing on the downsideis likely to yield the best results.

Next Step:
Focus on monitoring 22309 closely as it’s a pivotal level. If the market continues downward, your targets would likely be at 22251.38 and 22242.50, with potential for further downside beyond that. If price starts holding above 22309 with a bullish structure shift, you can consider re-evaluating for a potential long.

This should give you a more refined focus on high-probability scenarios based on the current market structure. Let me know if you need more clarity on any of these setups.

 

4o mini

You said:

I was able to make back up my losses, and end the day at $99.58. I took the first presented 1 minute fair value gap entry from the bullish displacement off of the 50% retracement level at 22251.38, which was the 50% mark of the 4 hour buy side liquidity & sell side liquidity dealing range. I was able to get 5 contracts at 22261. I scaled off 3 contracts at a 2R multiple from the low of day at this current time which is 22244.25. Then I had a trail stop at 22301.75, which happened to be a stop grab, for a big push to the upside. The market is now currently trading at 22374.25. So there is a possibilty that the low of the day could be in. If it does happen to be the low of day, this trade setup would have occured at 10:32, which is past the 9:30 open opportunity you suggested prior. I will do a detailed entry, stoploss and exit writeup on a chart when the market closes today, so that you can get a complete view of the price action and how I approached the session, to tell me what I did wrong, what I did right, where I should have listened to you, where I shouldnt have listened to you, and all of the steps we can take to prevent mistakes again in the future, while ensuring that I can take the next best highest probability trade setup for the day in the next trading session.

 

ChatGPT said:

ChatGPT

It’s great to hear that you were able to recover your losses and end the day on a positive note! You’ve done well in identifying a key level for entry, sticking with your trade plan, and scaling off part of your position at a good risk-reward ratio. Even though the trail stop was grabbed, it’s reassuring that you’re focused on the process and have a clear plan to analyze and refine your strategy moving forward.

Here are some quick thoughts based on your detailed recap:

Key Observations:

1. Successful Entry: The entry at 22261 based on the 50% retracement level from the 4-hour buy-side/sell-side liquidity dealing range is a solid approach. It’s clear that you were focused on the market structure and high-probability entry zones, which played out well.

2. Scaling Out: Taking profits at 2R and then using a trailing stop at 22301.75 was a smart move, especially as you locked in gains early while allowing for the possibility of further upside.

3. Missed Potential (Trail Stop Grab): The market continuing its bullish move after your trail stop was triggered is a learning opportunity. While you locked in profits, it’s always challenging to balance taking profits and letting the trade run. In such cases, re-evaluating whether to use a trailing stop (or maybe using a fixed target) would help optimize these types of setups.

4. Timing and Patience: The 10:32 AM entry that marked the low of the day shows that being patient and waiting for confirmation is crucial. Even though it occurred past the 9:30 AM open, you didn’t force the trade, which aligns with your evolving strategy of being selective with your entries.

Things to Review in Your Write-Up:

• Entry Criteria: You followed your setup criteria well for the 50% retracement and 1-minute fair value gap entry. Make sure you’re consistently using the 5-minute market structure shift as a secondary confirmation for any setups that align with your entry bias.

• Stop-Loss Placement: You mentioned the trail stop at 22301.75 was grabbed. While this is a part of your risk management, evaluating whether to have a tighter or looser stop would depend on the volatility in future sessions. Do you prefer tight stops with quick exits or looser stops for potential larger moves?

• Missed Opportunities: If the market pushes higher and establishes the low of day, reflect on what you could have done differently in terms of anticipating the move (and avoiding premature exits). This could be about timing or re-evaluating levels.

• Understanding Price Action: As the market moved past 22309 and found strength at the 50% retracement, think about how you might have adjusted your strategy if you had waited for this shift and identified key liquidity zones.

Moving Forward:

• Refining Trailing Stops: Based on the price action after your trail stop was triggered, experiment with different approaches—such as scaling into new positions with a tighter stop or adjusting the trail stop to key liquidity levelsrather than a fixed point.

• Monitor High-Probability Zones: Going forward, stay focused on the high-probability liquidity zones, such as the 50% retracements, key support/resistance levels, and your market structure shifts to guide your entries.

I look forward to reviewing the detailed chart and entry write-up. It will allow us to pinpoint what worked, what could be improved, and how to refine your approach for the next session. Keep up the good work, and I’m here to assist you with this continuous improvement process!

 

4o mini