1 Minute confirmaton, 30M Bullish Orderblock, 4D 50% Bearish Trend Shift Retracement Taregt,

Key Intention for the Next Trading Day:

Your key intention should be to focus on waiting for confluence at the 50% retracement level and remaining patient for clear confirmation on whether the market will break above the Buy Side Liquidity (and continue upward) or reverse for a downside move. Specifically:

1. Monitor the 50% retracement from the 3D/4D trend shifts and ensure you’re looking for confirmation on the 5-minute or 15-minute charts.
2. Watch the weekly VWAP upper band as a key resistance level, which aligns with the 50% retracement and could indicate a potential downside move if respected.
3. Be mindful of contradictory signals from the 1-day moving average crossing above the 4D/5D moving averages. This could signal short-term strength but doesn't negate the potential downside move at your key level.
4. Remain disciplined and avoid second-guessing—you have a clear plan, so trust the process. Execute your trade based on solid confirmation.

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Best Advice for Your Next Move:

1. Trade Setup to Focus On:

   • Wait for price to reach your 50% retracement level (which aligns with the VWAP upper band). This is your high-probability setup.
   • Look for confirmation on the 5-minute or 15-minute charts, such as a rejection at the key level, candlestick pattern reversals, or momentum indicators signaling a reversal.
   • Enter short once confirmation aligns with your criteria (rejection at the retracement level, a false breakout, or price stalling at the VWAP upper band).

2. Stop-Loss and Risk Management:

   • Place your stop-loss above the Buy Side Liquidity and the 1-minute bearish order block to account for potential sweeps.
   • If the market sweeps this area and reverses, it would confirm your bearish bias. However, if it breaks through, it may invalidate the setup.

3. Targets:

   • Your profit target should be towards the 1-day moving average or a key liquidity level below, depending on the market’s reaction at the 50% retracement.

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If I Were in Your Position:

If I were in your position, I would remain patient and disciplined. Given the potential for conflicting signals (strength from the moving averages vs. weakness at the VWAP upper band), the key is to not rush into trades without clear confirmation.

What I would do:

• I would wait for price to reach the 50% retracement level and assess how it interacts with the VWAP upper band.
• If I see strong rejection or a failed breakout at this level, I would enter a short trade with my stop-loss just above the liquidity level.
• My target would be the 1-day moving average, which aligns with the "true market price" you’ve identified.

Why: This setup aligns with the high-probability areas you've identified, and it minimizes your risk while providing a good R/R ratio. Given the market dynamics, patience is essential to ensure that you’re not trading on uncertainty but rather on well-defined levels with confluence.

Remember, success in trading is not about taking every trade—it's about waiting for the right setup and executing it with discipline.

 

 

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Difficulty of Identifying Key Levels and Invisible Support:

• The bullish order block that formed in the prior day’s session into the close was hard to identify during live trading.
• You experienced frustration because buyers were stepping in at invisible support levels that were difficult to anticipate. This made your short trades feel off, as profit targets to the downside were not hitting.
• In hindsight, it's clear that the bias was unclear at the time, which contributed to the confusion and indecision during the session.

2. Importance of the 50% Retracement and Key Imbalances:

• A key factor was the 4-day 50% retracement imbalance, which hadn't been filled earlier but was eventually filled during the session. This level became crucial to watch moving forward.
• You're now aware of unfilled orders on both the upside and downside, which makes the directional bias unclear, but important levels (like the "line in the sand") will help you identify if the market moves up or down.

3. Key Levels to Watch for the Next Trading Day:

• The main focus should be on the Buy Side Liquidity and whether price can break through it and continue upward or if it will hit liquidity and reverse downward.
• If the market breaks the "line in the sand" and heads lower, downside is more likely.
• You’ve marked a key 50% retracement level from the 3-day and 4-day trend shifts, and this will be a vital area to monitor for potential entries on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts.

4. Weekly VWAP and Moving Averages:

• There’s a confluence between the 5-day VWAP upper band and the 50% key level on the 5-minute chart, which makes this area highly significant.
• However, there's a contradictory signal from the 1-day moving average crossing above the 4-day and 5-day moving averages, implying strength rather than weakness.
• You will need to wait for confirmation during the next session to determine whether the weekly VWAP upper band acts as resistance or if the moving averages indicate a continuation upward.

5. Market Price and Liquidity Draw:

• The true market price for Nasdaq is currently undervalued by around 150 points, and the market may move up to this level before reversing downward.
• This suggests a higher probability of a downside move if price reaches resistance before touching the 1-day moving average.

6. Trade Setup and Stop-Loss Considerations:

• You have a well-defined plan to watch for 5-minute and 15-minute confirmation at the 50% key level (aligned with the weekly VWAP upper band) for a potential downside move.
• Your stop-loss is best placed above the Buy Side Liquidity and the 1-minute bearish order block, but be aware of potential stop sweeps before the market moves in your anticipated direction.

7. Patience and Discipline for the Next Session:

• You’ve planned your trading setup, and you need to trust that the trade will either work or it won’t. Once the trade plays out, you should walk away from the screen and avoid overtrading or second-guessing.
• The setup may occur during the overnight session, but time will tell.

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Key Themes:

• Invisible support levels and unfilled orders made this week frustrating.
• 50% retracement levels and imbalances are crucial areas of confluence.
• Monitoring key levels and confluence points for a clearer directional bias.
• Be aware of contradictory signals between the VWAP and moving averages.
• Stick to your pre-defined plan and maintain discipline in trade execution.

 

 

 

 

This also is a very difficult trading setup to find. It came from a prior day 30 minute bullish orderblock from the session into the close. 

The reason why I also likely wouldnt have taken this trading setup is because it appears that there is so much unfilled orders to the downside. 

So based on the last 2 trading days, it really seems as though the buyers came from areas that werent that strong, or very hard to locate.

And thats why when I was trading it felt very weird, because I was short, my profit targets to the downside werent hitting, and the buyers were coming in from what felt like invisible support levels, and this resulted in a very frustrating trading week.

Its somewhat nice to identify with hindsight, that the bias was still unclear. Because I couldnt quite understand it during the trading session either, but the fact that I still cant say for sure that I would have taken a long trade is somehwat reassuring. 

I do have to note that during this trading day, the 4 Day 50% retracement imbalance had still not yet been filled. And it did fill during this trading session,

But now, it seems as though there are a few very crucial levels to watch going into the next trading day. And that is the unfilled orders to the upside, the downside, and the line in the sand in the center.

If price can break through the Buy Side Liquidity, and continue upward, through the weekly trend continuation, then it seems bulls are in control. If it takes the liquidity and dumps back down, especially through the line in the sand, then downside seems probable. So basically, all of Frridays price action will be the main thing to focus on, (considering the levels) for the monday trading session. 

I marked a 50% retracement from the 3D & 4D trend shifts to get very precise. This will by far be the most important level and area to watch.

SO because it is a 3 day and 4 day level, that is more than a 1 Day level, therefor, we will only be able to take this setup on a 5 minute or 15 minute chart.

Im also noticing that the 5D week VWAP, is actually showcasing a confluence level with the upperband and the 50% area to be taken from a 5 minute chart. So this is a very telling signal to watch. The Lowerband of the 5 day week VWAP, also showcases the lowerband below the untested demand areas below.

Another important thing to note, is a contradictory signal, which is that the 1 day moving average has crossed above the 4 day and 5 day moving averages, which implyes strength rather than weakness. 

So we do not yet know which holds more weight, but we will have that answer after the monday trading session. Either the week upperband will provide a false signal, or the moving averages below will provide a false signal, but the moving averages align in confluence with the 12 hour line in the sand, in which if broken, looks like it will be providing more downside. 

And since the 1 day moving average is aligned at the line in the sand, one thing that we do know is that the market usually tends to trade towards that draw on liquidity, as it acts as the true market price for the nasdaq.

So as it currently stands, the true market price of the nasdaq is around 150 points undervalued. SO, if the market moves up to the resistance level prior to the 1 day moving average, I think it is a higher probability that the market will come down, rather than if the market moving down towards the 1 day moving average first, before moving back up. This is important. 

So we will wait for 5 minute & 15 minute confirmation at our 50% key level that aligns with the upperband from the weekly VWAP, for a downside move until proven otherwise. If we nail this trade, it could likely put our account back on track. Our current stoploss appears best if taken at the Buy Side Liquidity above the 1 minte bearish orderblock, but as we know, sometimes these levels can get swept before going in the pre defined direction, taking out stops and retail traders before the initial move. 

With all of this analysis, we will be well prepared for the next trading day, with our pre defined plan and trading setup, and it will either work or it wont. Regardless, once the trade either goes your way, or doesnt. WALK from the screen and end the trading session. 

Its also likely that this trading setup will occur during the overnight trading session but of course I could be wrong. Time will tell.