2 Day Anchored VWAP Short, 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short, Daily Bearish Structure, Daily Bearish Trend, H1 TrailStop, H2 TrailStop, M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Playbook , PML Target, Prior Day High Break & Reversal, Trade Of The Day , Week Range, Wk Bullish Structure, Wk Bullish Trend,

Trade Details: July 15, 2024

• Status: No Trade Day (Execution Issues)
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 15, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 2 Day Anchored VWAP Short
  • 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep
  • Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short
  • Daily Bearish Structure
  • Daily Bearish Trend
  • H1 TrailStop
  • H2 TrailStop
  • M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • Playbook
  • PML Target
  • Prior Day High Break & Reversal
  • Trade Of The Day
  • Week Range
  • Wk Bullish Structure
  • Wk Bullish Trend

Notes:

No Trade Day: Executional issues with APEX prevented trade execution. Encountered 'trading temporarily halted' error.

Trade of the Day Setup:

Observations:

• Anchored VWAP Analysis:

  • Analyzed the 2 Day Anchored VWAP during the premarket session.
  • Identified that the prior day high and low were distant.
  • Noted the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided a short signal at the top of the band.

• Daily Chart Analysis:

  • Suggested a draw on liquidity to the prior day low due to the daily candle downtrend.
  • Weekly chart indicated a draw on liquidity to the prior week high because of the weekly uptrend.

Trade Setup:

• Entry:

  • Best timeframe for execution: M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal.
  • Used the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V (or ^).
  • Executed with a sell stop order.
  • Stop loss: Set at the high of the day (HOD).

• Orderblock Rejections:

  • Observed 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections.
  • Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).

Future Strategy Adjustments:

• Execution Timeframe:

  • When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
  • Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.

• Execution Data:

  • More data should suggest the best possible approach.
  • Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.

Mental Trade:

• Mental Long Entry:

  • Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
  • The trade wound up failing.
  • It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.

• Setup Classifications:

  • A Side Setup: Initial move.
  • B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
  • C Setup: To be defined in the future.

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Action Points:

1. Higher Timeframe Confirmation:

   • Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.

2. Execution Timeframe:

   • Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.

3. Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:

   • If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.

4. Follow Setup Classifications:

   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted' 

But here is the trade of the day setup.

For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band. 

On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.

So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed. 

Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD. 

There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)

So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.

Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.

5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, 8:30 DATA, Blue Zone, DATA Setup, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Bullish Structure, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation DATA Reaction, Playbook , PPI, Trade Of The Day , Uptrend Continuation, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside),

Trade Setup Analysis for July 12, 2024

Key Points from Notes:

• Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
• Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
• Market Context:
  • The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
  • Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
  • The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
• BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
• VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.

Things Done Right:

1. Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.

Things Done Wrong:

1. Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
2. Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
3. Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.

Recommendations and Checklist

Recommendations:

1. Preparation:

   • Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
   • Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.

2. Trade Management:

   • Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
   • Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.

3. Market Context:

   • Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
   • BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.

4. Review and Adapt:

   • Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
   • Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.

Structured Checklist

Before Market Open:

1. Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
2. Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
3. Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.

Pre-Trade:

1. Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
2. Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
3. Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
4. Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.

During Trading:

1. Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
2. Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
3. Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.

Post-Trade:

1. Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
2. Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
3. Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.

Playbook Strategy for July 12, 2024

• Pattern: 8:30 DATA, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside)
• Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
• Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
• Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
• Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.

I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.

Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.

There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.

I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented. 

Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines

This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided

Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal

Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.

Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry

 

(Things I Did Wrong)

- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)

- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand

- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release