78.6% Fibonacci Long, ATH failure, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 prior bar low trailstop, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, Playbook , Pre Market Open Untested, Premarket Low to ATH Fibonacci,

Analysis of Trade of the Day Setup

Key Points:

• Fibonacci Level Utilization: Utilized the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from premarket low to ATH failure as a key entry point.
• Intraday Analysis: Anticipated and monitored a retest of the premarket open for potential long opportunities.
• Playbook Addition: Integrated this setup into your playbook for future reference and monitoring.
• M1 Chart Confirmation: Identified buyers at the Fibonacci level on the M1 chart, indicating strong support.
• H12 Chart Trend: Noted a bullish trend on the H12 chart, with trendline confirmation supporting the trade entry.
• Trade Execution: Noted minimal drawdown if the trade was executed on the M1 chart, followed by significant upside for the rest of the day.
• Trailing Stop Strategy: Recognized the potential for a substantial profit (12R) if trailed on the H2 chart, highlighting effective risk management.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Utilization of Fibonacci Levels:

   • Continue to leverage Fibonacci retracement levels for precise entry points and potential support/resistance areas.
   • Monitor reactions at these levels across multiple timeframes (like M1 for short-term signals and H12 for broader trends).

2. Playbook Development:

   • Expand playbook to include setups based on Fibonacci levels and trendline confirmations across various timeframes.
   • Regularly update and refine playbook entries based on market conditions and historical performance.

3. Risk Management:

   • Implement trailing stop strategies effectively, considering both short-term (M1) and longer-term (H2) chart dynamics.
   • Evaluate potential trade scenarios for maximum risk-reward ratios, aiming for high profitability trades like the observed 12R opportunity.

4. Market Context Awareness:

   • Maintain awareness of broader market trends and intraday fluctuations to validate trade setups.
   • Adapt strategies based on real-time market conditions and adjust entries/exits accordingly.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Entry Criteria:

   • Define clear entry criteria based on Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline confirmations, validated across multiple timeframes.

2. Stop Loss and Take Profit:

   • Establish precise levels using strategic points such as Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline breaks, while considering trailing stop strategies.

3. Execution and Management:

   • Execute trades promptly based on defined criteria and playbook strategies, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols.
   • Monitor trade progress and adjust stops or take profits based on real-time market movements.

Conclusion

By integrating these insights into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data and market conditions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy effectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Todays trade of the day setup came from the 78.6% fibonacci level from the premarket low to the ATH failure.

During the day, I was anticipating a retest of the pre market open for longs, but now I will add this trade setup to my playbook and monitor reactions at the 78.6% fibonacci on the M1 chart for buyers.

Had this trade been taken off of the M1 chart, the drawdown would have been virtually nothing before it took of to reach new highs for the rest of the day.

Also, on this trading day, the H12 chart was trending higher, and I set a trendline from each bars low, I noticed that it also provided a trade signal for this exact entry today

once it broke below the trendline, it was in the demand area, and as soon at the M1 chart flipped, the trade took off.

Trailing this trade on the H2 chart would have provided a 12R trade, MASSIVE!

78.6% Fibonacci Long, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bullish Pre Market, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, M1 green bar trail stop, Mean reversion , Mean Reversion Long, Missed Target, Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib, vwap bounce,

Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:

Insights from Your Trade

1. Early Preparation:

   • Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.

2. Utilizing Premarket Analysis:

   • Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.

3. Trade Execution on M1 Chart:

   • Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.

4. Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):

   • Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.

5. Stop Loss Management:

   • Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.

Recommendations for Refinement

1. Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:

   • Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.

2. Partial Profit Taking:

   • Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.

3. Journal and Analyze:

   • Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.

4. Review and Adjust Post-Session:

   • Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.

During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.

Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.

So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.

I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.

Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.

Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points. 

 

(What I Did Right)

- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open

- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket

- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend

 

(What I Did Wrong)

- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early) 

Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven