8:30 DATA, H6 Bullish Orderblock, Higher DOL Moving Average, Jobless Claims, M1 Demand Entry, M1 Displacement, M5 Bearish to Bullish Variation, premarket high to low 50% , VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband Target,

 

1. Timing and Data Awareness:

   • You woke up at 8:32 AM, just 2 minutes after the 8:30 data drop, and observed M1 displacement at the H6 bullish order block level.
   • The liquidity sweep through the H6 bullish order block suggests you should pay attention to these levels and monitor for potential liquidity draw misses.

2. Importance of Marking Liquidity Levels:

   • The missed lower daily draw on liquidity reinforces the need to consistently mark supply or demand liquidity extremes. This could help anticipate where price is likely to move in the future, giving a clearer roadmap for setups.

3. Chart Timeframe Consideration:

   • You noted that entering the trade on the M1 chart would have resulted in being stopped out at the low of the day before price moved in your direction. Conversely, entering on the M5 chart would have minimized drawdown and improved risk-to-reward.
   • This suggests that using higher timeframes like M5 for entries could offer better trade outcomes, especially in volatile conditions like post-data drops.

4. Overnight Session Scalping:

   • You took a scalp trade off an untested M1 demand area from the prior day and saw quick success after confirming a close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the premarket high to low.
   • This demonstrates a successful application of Fibonacci retracement and quick reaction to price action, leading to a profitable 1-2R scalp.

Areas to Consider:

• Continue refining entry precision by considering different timeframes (M1 vs. M5) to optimize for better risk management.
• Marking all supply/demand liquidity zones more accurately could prevent future missed opportunities and clarify extremes.

 

(NOTES)

I woke up somehow at 8:32 on the dot, which was pretty interesting being that data dropped 2 minutes piror, and I noticed M1 displacement through my H6 bullish orderblock level of interest. In which all of the liquidity was sweeped through the the H6 Bullish Orderblock stoploss, with a reaction off of that level, missing the lower daily draw on liquidity by about a 1 minute candle. So In the future, I think it will be very beneficial to mark 100% of supply or demand liquidity so that I can get an idea of the extremes in where price can likely head. 

But I took the retest long from my level of interest after the displacement from the 8:30 data, with a stoploss at my inital stop area from the H6 bullish orderblock. Looking at this trade in hindsight, had I taken the trade on the M1 chart, I would have been stop ran at the low of day for price to immediately have ran in my direction, but If i entered on the 5 minute chart, I would have experienced virtually no drawdown for a very high risk to reward trade. So we will have to keep that in mind for the future.

I did also take a scalp trade in the overnight session, off of an untested m1 demand area from the prior day, it immediately started running, and I didnt take the inital entry, but once we had a 1 minute close above the 50% fib from the premarket high to low, I scalped a long trade for about 1-2R.

10AM Data, 8:30 DATA, chop, Consumer Sentiment , H12 Bullish Trend Failure, H12 Line In The Sand, M15 Bearish Orderblock, M30 Bearish Trend Shift Signal, Personal Income And Outlays, VWAP Upperband short,

---

July 26, 2024

• Trade Entry Time: 9:29 AM
• Asset: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 10 AM Data
  • 8:30 DATA
  • Chop
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • H12 Bullish Trend Failure
  • H12 Line In The Sand
  • M15 Bearish Orderblock
  • M30 Bearish Trend Shift Signal
  • Personal Income And Outlays
  • VWAP Upperband Short

Notes:

• Initial Bias: Long off the open.
• Market Expectation: Response to economic data releases (10 AM, 8:30 AM) and market reaction to consumer sentiment and personal income/outlays data.
• Trade Plan: Short at the VWAP Upperband with expectation of continuation downward post-data releases.

10:06 AM:

• Two losses on trap longs. VWAP action was unproductive.

10:20 AM:

• Contemplated M15 entry but decided against it due to poor R/R.
• Preference for extremity trades at VWAP bands.

10:49 AM:

• Shorted at the area signaled long by the M15 chart.
• Marketed short, breakeven OTD.

11:40 AM:

• Boring session, stuck in a tight range.
• Down $56, aiming to get green OTD.

12:43 PM:

• Frustrated by false signals and missed opportunities.
• Could have been profitable if long at LOD liquidity sweep.

1:38 PM:

• Passed evaluation despite multiple chop outs OTD.
• Noted necessity for deep journaling to avoid future stop outs.
• Recognized over-risking, but trading with weekly profits.

Key Points:

• Right:
  • Accurate identification of bearish signals and alignment with economic data.
  • Entry aligned with multiple timeframe confirmation (H12, M15, M30).
  • Recognized importance of journaling and addressing chop outs.
• Wrong:
  • Multiple stop outs and false signals due to choppy VWAP action.
  • Over-risking despite weekly profits.
  • Missed key liquidity sweep long opportunity.
• New Rules Learned:
  • Implement a rule for avoiding chop outs.
  • Prioritize order blocks alignment:
    • Shorts: Higher timeframe order blocks should be above lower timeframe order blocks.
    • Longs: Higher timeframe order blocks should be below lower timeframe order blocks.
  • Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded.

---

Overall Summary

Strengths:

• Strong market analysis and ability to identify traps.
• Effective use of playbook trade principles.
• Recognized need for risk management and journaling.

Weaknesses:

• Struggled with choppy price action and false signals.
• Over-risking and missing key opportunities.
• Need for better confirmation signals to avoid multiple stop outs.

New Key Rules Learned:

1. Reassess timing and confirmation signals before re-entering trades.
2. Incorporate additional data points to strengthen the thesis.
3. Implement order block alignment rules for better trade confirmation.
4. Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded to manage risk.

Overall Performance:

• The week involved a mix of strong analysis and execution issues due to choppy market conditions.
• Important lessons on trade confirmation, risk management, and order block alignment learned for future improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9:29AM. Looking for longs off open atm, would write more detailed but I have 30 seconds.

10:06AM. Ive taken 2 loses on trap longs. Garbage action at the VWAP. 

10:20AM. This is seriously awful price action. I am currently following a rule of going to the next timeframe over if my entry fails. So far I have been stopped out of M2 & M5. I am contemplating M15, but I honestly dont think I want to take the trade. I would prefer an extremity at the VWAP bands at this point. Im thinking to trust a VWAP trade for the 3rd time would be a mistake, also because the R/R would put me at negative R Multiple from the 15M chart.

10:49AM. I took a short at the area where the M15 chart signaled long. I wasnt comfortable taking the trade after that type of trade stopped me out 2 times prior. Also, because of the negative R Multiple, I just marketed short and it got me bascially at breakeven OTD.

11:40AM. Pretty boring trading session, stuck in a tight range, chopping the VWAP with no extremities trade opportunities. Down around $56 on the session. Looking to just get green OTD so I can walk.

12:43 What a stupid fucking trading session. Shit is so fucking annoying. Just constantly giving me flase signals over and over again. If I just took the fucking long trade at the sweep of liquidity lower at LOD, id be up on fucking session and could have walked already. 

1:38PM Passed my evaluation, multiple chop outs OTD, and we will have to do some deep journaling this week to figure out how to avoid that many stop outs in the future. But we put our money where our mouth was. Took on a bit too much risk to be honest. But we were playing with some profits on the week. 

It doesnt matter how much profit we made OTW in theory, because we are against trailing drawdown. 

Trading the M30 trend shift would have resulted in the least amount of drawdown upon entry for the trading session.

I also could have avoided squeeze loses but waiting for the break below the upperband, in which this case, we were trending above from the area we broke out of.

I also think that following the rule of going to the next timeframe higher upon each stopout, would really help with mitigating my risk. 

 

This was a very difficult trading session due to many mixed signals on my days VWAP. I was thinking long, which was the first initial move. I just got chopped out of all of my variation signals. And the moment I tried to trade against the range, I got squeezed. But ultimately, the trade OTD that worked was off of yesterdays orderblock signals, from M30 orderblocks down to the M2 Orderblocks. That was in confluence with another H12 bullish trend attempt and fakeout for a move lower. The only difference with todays setup was that the H12 candle didnt sweep the Buy Side Liquidity from the orderblocks presented before it dropped. Thats why this action was so tricky. It was a fight for price the entire time, and my trend shift signals kept going off, I will have to implement rules that keep me from getting chopped out like this in the future.

The short rejection came from the prior day 15 Minute Bearish Orderblock. The orderblock sequence was larger timeframe orderblocks lower to higher. As the timeframes granually got shorter as the orderblocks went higher, (as it should during a short trade) this M15 bearish orderblock was ABOVE the 5 minute and 2 minute bearish orderblocks. In the future, I will have to make sure that I implement it as a rule, that if there is an inconsistency with orderblocks in relation to their location, that will be the new A+ orderblock rule.

I will make it official

(New Trading Rule For Orderblocks)

Order blocks that come from shorts, tend to come from lower timeframes the higher the orderblock

Orderblocks that come from longs, tend to come from lower timeframes the lower the orderblock

Our new rule is

***If an orderblock from a higher timeframeframe is above an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a short, that will be our short signal***

***If an orderblock from a higher timeframe is below an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a long, that will be our  long signal.***

 

 

NOW THAT YOU ARE FUNDED, YOU **MUST MUST MUST** NOT TRADE MORE THAN 1 MICRO ON ANY GIVEN TRADE FOR **AT LEAST** THE FIRST 10 TRADING DAYS OF BEING FUNDED. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT EXECUTE TRADES WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF RISK YOU HAVE USED TO PASS THIS EVALUATION. OUR MAIN PRIORITY IS SIMPLY GETTING OUR FIRST PAYOUT. MAKING TRADING BECOME REAL, SEEING SOMETHING IN RETURN FOR THE YEARS OF HARD WORK AND DEDICATION YOU HAVE PUT TOWARDS THIS CRAFT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF, AND YOU DESERVE IT. 

IF YOU TAKE 1 MICRO CONTRACT WITH YOUR SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE YOUR TRADING FREQUENCY, BUILD THE CONFIDENCE FOR HITTING THE BUY OR SELL BUTTON AND GETTING RID OF FEAR AND HESITATION, HELPING YOU FINE TUNE YOUR STRATEGY IN THE PROCESS SO THAT YOU CAN HELP DEVELOP YOUR PLAYBOOK AND TRADING RULES. 

WITH GOOD TRADES YOU SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MAKE AROUND 250-300 BUCKS TRADING A DAY. AND AFTER THE 10 DAY PERIOD, THAT IS A 2500 PAYOUT, 5K A MONTH, 

LETS DO THIS.

 

 

5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, 8:30 DATA, Blue Zone, DATA Setup, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Bullish Structure, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation DATA Reaction, Playbook , PPI, Trade Of The Day , Uptrend Continuation, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside),

Trade Setup Analysis for July 12, 2024

Key Points from Notes:

• Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
• Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
• Market Context:
  • The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
  • Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
  • The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
• BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
• VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.

Things Done Right:

1. Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.

Things Done Wrong:

1. Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
2. Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
3. Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.

Recommendations and Checklist

Recommendations:

1. Preparation:

   • Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
   • Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.

2. Trade Management:

   • Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
   • Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.

3. Market Context:

   • Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
   • BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.

4. Review and Adapt:

   • Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
   • Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.

Structured Checklist

Before Market Open:

1. Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
2. Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
3. Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.

Pre-Trade:

1. Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
2. Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
3. Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
4. Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.

During Trading:

1. Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
2. Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
3. Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.

Post-Trade:

1. Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
2. Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
3. Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.

Playbook Strategy for July 12, 2024

• Pattern: 8:30 DATA, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside)
• Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
• Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
• Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
• Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.

I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.

Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.

There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.

I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented. 

Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines

This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided

Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal

Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.

Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry

 

(Things I Did Wrong)

- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)

- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand

- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release

 

 

8:30 DATA, 9:30 Open Retest Short, All Bullish SIgnal, All Time Highs, CPI, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Trail Stop, Playbook , Pre Market Open Short, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Short, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Analysis of July 11, 2024

Key Points:

• Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
• Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
• Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
• Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Discipline and Routine:

   • Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
   • Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.

2. Missed Opportunities:

   • While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
   • Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.

3. Trade of the Day Analysis:

   • Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
   • Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.

4. Risk Management:

   • Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
   • Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy

Playbook Development

1. Setup Identification:

   • Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
   • Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.

2. Execution Guidelines:

   • Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
   • Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.

3. Review and Adapt:

   • Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
   • Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.

Checklist for Future Trades

1. Preparation:

   • Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
   • Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.

2. Execution:

   • Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
   • Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.

3. Reflection:

   • Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
   • Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.

By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.

I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.

Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.

One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.

 

8:30 DATA, 8:30 Data High Break (M5 Candle Range), H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish to Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation After Data, Playbook , PMH breakout, Premarket Open Retest, Prior ATH Break and Retest,

No Trade Day Notes

Reason for No Trade:

• Due to the 4th of July week and market closing early.
• Noted a correlation between multiple day daily open prints and previous trading losses.

Observations:

• Today's trading setup appeared unmanipulated and straightforward.
• Presented a potential trend day opportunity with:
  • Simple confirmation signals: Data/PMH (Previous Market High)/Multiple trend candle shifts.

Considerations for Future Trades:

• Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
• Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
• Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.

Learnings:

• Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
• Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day.

Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss. 

But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.

It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend.