Best Trading Day: Achieved the best trading day since starting the Topstep evaluation, with the main trade being a "Trade of the Day" setup.
Missed Alarm: Overslept and woke up at 9:30 AM, just as the market opened, missing the premarket routine.
Price Action Focus: Chose to observe pure price action for the first 1-2 hours before entering a trade.
Chase Trade: Felt FOMO due to the initial drop at the open and took a chase short trade when the price traded below the VWAP lower band, targeting the prior day low. Covered the position early out of fear of a squeeze, missing the full move.
Familiar Reversal Setup: Recognized a reversal setup when the 1-minute bar closed above the VWAP lower band, supported by a 5-minute bearish-to-bullish variation. This led to the "Trade of the Day" long position.
Massive Rally: Entered long with a target at the VWAP upper band (320 points away). Trailed the stop after the third failed attempt to break the 2-minute trend to the downside. The market rallied 600 points from the entry, passing several significant levels, including the premarket high and a 4-day fair value gap.
Position Management: Closed the entire position due to having only 1 contract, missing out on holding for the massive move. Would have held longer if more contracts were traded.
Had my best trading day today since starting my Topstep evaluation account. And the main trade I took, was actually a trade of the day setup.
I woke up basically at 9:30 AM on the dot, due to oversleeping past my alarm clock. And from the moment the market opened, it was a drop from the opening bell. My thought process at this time was that I was just going to read pure price action for at least an hour or 2 until I saw a reasonable setup. And the market dropped heavily, inducing a bit of fomo (fear of missing out) for the downside move. I wound up taking a chase trade short, as I saw that price was trading and trending below the VWAP lowerband. because of this, I anticipated more downside to my anticipated price target at that time, which was the prior day low. I sold just a minute short, covering profit from fear of a squeeze to the upside, to watch it immediately drop and hit my target.
As I was monitoring price, I saw a setup occur that I have became familiar with, and that a reversal from a trend below or above a VWAP. And actually, just to note, the short setup for the session on the morning came from a trend above the upperband, which also led to a reversal to the downside. So todays candle was heavily influenced by the prior day candles range.
I was able to lock up the short trade, and I soon as I saw the 1 minute bar close back above the lowerband for a reversal IN CONFLUENCE, with a 5 minute bearish to bullish variation, I decided to take the market long, for the trade of the day setup.
At this time I had a price target back to the VWAP upperband, but it was 320 points away, so I decided to trailstop the positon after the thired attempt to break the 2 minute trend to the downside, and because I was only in with 1 contract, I had to cover the entire position. Had I had 2 or more contracts, I would have held for a massive move, because the market rallied from my entry a staggering 600 points to the upside, as a straight shot up, straight through the pre market high, and through what that time I had marked as an unclosed 3rd candle, 4 day fair value gap rip to the upside, into the 2 day bearish orderblock I had marked from the week prior.
You initially identified potential bullish follow-through based on several technical factors (e.g., untapped demand areas and bullish "Line in the Sand"). However, despite these indicators, the overnight session had a short setup, and the market didn't follow your expected bullish bias. This reveals a mismatch between your analysis and market behavior, suggesting the need to refine your directional bias.
2. Ignoring Higher Timeframe Gaps
One major mistake occurred during the 9:30 session, where you entered based on a 1-minute fair value gap closure without waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes (5-minute and 15-minute). The higher timeframe gaps held more significance, indicating that your entries were premature and lacked multi-timeframe alignment.
3. Misjudging Supply and Demand Zones
You noticed the absence of a 5-minute demand zone in the overnight session, which may have contributed to your failed bullish "Line in the Sand." Similarly, during the 9:30 session, you anticipated that the bearish line in the sand would fail because there was no 1-minute demand zone. This led to a wrong bias and influenced poor trade decisions, including an unnecessary long.
4. Failure to Adapt to Market Conditions
After identifying the shift from a bullish to bearish "Line in the Sand" between the overnight and 9:30 sessions, you failed to adapt quickly enough, sticking to a bullish bias when the market was signaling bearish. In hindsight, your first stop-out could have been the perfect short entry, showing hesitation to flip your bias in real time.
5. Overconfidence in Low Timeframe Setups
You focused on low-timeframe setups (1-minute fair value gap, 1-minute demand area) without giving enough weight to higher timeframes and market structure. This led to false confidence in trades that were ultimately stopped out due to the dominance of larger, more influential market patterns.
6. Overtrading & Emotional Reactions
You took multiple losses during the overnight session and continued trading into the 9:30 session without reassessing market conditions thoroughly. The "easy money trade" you took off the VWAP lower band was another loss, showing a pattern of overtrading rather than waiting for optimal setups.
7. Self-Reflection & Adjustments
You recognize that many of the mistakes are avoidable, such as failing to align with higher timeframes, entering trades without strong confirmations, and misjudging the strength of demand and supply zones. The overall takeaway is that you need to make significant adjustments and improvements to avoid repeating these mistakes.
Key Improvements to Focus On:
Align Entries with Higher Timeframes – Ensure that your 1-minute or short-term entries are confirmed by higher timeframe signals (5-minute, 15-minute).
Respect Market Structure – Be more adaptable when the market structure changes (e.g., when the Line in the Sand flips).
Avoid Premature Bias Shifts – Stick to your plan, but be open to flipping bias when valid signals present themselves.
Reduce Overtrading – Limit the number of trades and ensure each entry has a strong technical basis, especially when early trades result in losses.
Focus on Key Setups – Prioritize higher probability setups and resist taking "easy" trades based on emotional reactions or minor signals.
By improving these areas, you'll be able to make better decisions, minimize losses, and increase your consistency moving forward.
Adjustments for the Next Trading Session:
Align Entries with Higher Timeframes
Focus on higher timeframe confirmations (5-minute, 15-minute) before taking 1-minute setups. Make sure the broader market structure supports your trade idea before entering on a smaller timeframe.
Respect Market Structure
Adapt to market shifts more quickly. If you see a shift in the "Line in the Sand" or market behavior contradicts your initial bias, be prepared to pivot and adjust your strategy, even if it means reversing your directional bias.
Improve Demand and Supply Zone Analysis
Ensure you're analyzing demand and supply zones across multiple timeframes, particularly the higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute). Don’t rely solely on untapped zones in lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute) without supporting evidence.
Wait for Clear Confirmation
Instead of jumping into trades based on lower timeframe signals, wait for clear confirmation. If you're trading a 1-minute fair value gap, make sure there's alignment with higher timeframe gaps or other key levels (e.g., 50% mean reversions on larger timeframes).
Limit Overtrading
Set a rule for yourself to limit the number of trades you take. Once you hit your daily risk limit or experience two losses, step back and reassess the market without rushing into more trades.
Trade Only the Best Setups
Focus on your highest probability setups. Define and stick to "A+ setups" like key trend reversals or clear support/resistance breaks. Avoid chasing trades that don't align with your trading plan.
Key Intention for the Next Trading Session:
"Patience and Confirmation Over Impulse"
Your key focus should be waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entering a trade. Every time you feel the urge to trade based on a lower timeframe signal, stop and check whether higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute, or even H1/H4) align with your idea. This will help you avoid premature entries and impulsive trading decisions.
Not a good trading session for both the overnight and 9:30 open session.
In the overnight, when performing my technical analysis, I noticed a few things.
- We didnt reach the Daily draw on liquidity lower, and we created a slight bullish trend candle formation on the daily chart.
- We still didnt tap into the liquidity higher from the daily bearish fair value gap to the 2 day orderblock, or any liquidity sweeps/runs higher into any 50% mean reversions on higher timeframes
- We had a bullish Line In The Sand at that time
- We had an untapped 1 minute demand area, indicating a potential hold of the lower levels
All of these indicators, suggested to me that we could get potential bullish follow through, because althought I thought overall that the market would see lower prices, I thought in general that the market would want to trade to higher prices first, (ideally around the 2 Day Bearish Orderblock) (After liquidity was swept) to take a sell signal for lower prices. But this didnt happen. It was an overnight short setup from the overnight opening print on the first bullish to bearish variation. Which currently stands as this trading sessions 'Trade Of The Day' setup.
So how did I trade this?
Well, I took 2 losses attempting to trade the 1 minute untapped demand area, and also got caught in a 'bullish line in the sand' reversal.
I then entered shortly after on a 'Bullish Turtle Soup' setup after the liquidity was swept. And this trade was going well for some time, until It failed to reach my overall profit target, and came back to take me out of the trade at breakeven.
Then, I woke up and decided to trade the 9:30 session, and there was a full thing I was noticing from the technicals.
- We flipped from an overnight bullish line in the sand, to a 9:30 session bearish line in the sand.
( And a key observation that I noticed in the failure of the overnight line in the sand, from my estimation, was that it was lacking a 5 minute demand area. None existed, because the liquidity on all 5 minute demands were swept at that time)
Because I thought that because there was no 5 minute demand for the bullish line in the sand, I also noticed that there wasnt a 1 minute demand area that existed for the bearish line in the sand.
This influenced my bias, to believe that the bearish line in the sand would also fail, and that I should approach the 9:30 session with a bullish bias, to tap into more sell side liquidity, and look for an extremity or reversal trade after liquidity was swept.
Well, this didnt happen, and the 30 minute bearish orderblock created off of the bearish line in the sand rejection in the premarket session, at was the high for the 9:30 session open.
The 9:30 session trade that I took, was a 1 minute close above a 1 minute 50% fair value gap, which also aligned in confluence with a close above the 1st deviation moving average. But I didnt wait for the 5 minute 50% fair value gap closure, OR the 15 minute fair value gap closure. Which was clear dispacement lower from the open, with a failure to reverse where I entered long. SO its clear that the higher timeframe fair value gaps held more weight than the 1 minute fair value gap.
Upon this loss, I took one more final trade on what I have journal as my 'easy money trade' which is a simple reaction at the upper or lower VWAP bands.
In this case, I took a lowerband long setup off of a 1 minute price action reaction (bearish to bullish variation) and took my second loss for the session.
In hindsight, My first stopout ( 1 minute fair value gap failure ) actually could have provided me a short entry trade of the day setup, had I just chose to sell rather than to buy. So I made many mistakes between the overnight and the 9:30 trading sessions.
Overall, I need to make many adjustments to ensure that I solve all of these mistakes and issues. And dont bring it into the next trading week.
Todays trade of the day setup, was presented in the overnight trading session from the H12 bearish orderblock, with multiple attempts to sweep the liquidity, it still held strong. So it appears at the moment, the strongest short setup in this current downtrending market is an H12 bearish orderblock short.
Noticed a gap between the prior day close and premarket open, below the 1 Day VWAP lower band, indicating bearish displacement.
Attempted a long position off the next VWAP band which failed, reinforcing a bearish trend shift.
Trade Execution:
Shorted the PML (Pre-Market Low) due to clear stop-loss placement and strong downside pressure.
Anticipated a trend day given the downside action on the weekly chart and the market being in a discount area on multiple timeframes.
Observed zero drawdown from entry, indicating strong downside pressure and a well-timed entry.
10:40 AM:
The market continued making lower lows with no clear downside target due to distant DOL (Draw on Liquidity).
The VWAP and 21 EMA on the M2 chart indicated a consistent downtrend.
Entry experienced no retests, further validating the strength of the position.
12:30 PM:
Closed the trade with a profit of over $500, bringing the account over the $1K mark.
Decision to lock in profits was based on a successful morning session and strong performance.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Effective premarket analysis identified key gaps and trends, leading to a high-probability short setup.
Correctly identified the PML as a strategic entry point with minimal risk.
The trade execution was well-timed with no drawdown, indicating strong market understanding.
Wrong:
Initial hesitation to confirm the bearish trend shift earlier could have improved entry precision.
Outcome: Successfully executed a short trade based on premarket analysis and trend confirmation, resulting in a profit of over $500. The strategy of letting the trade run with stops at session highs proved effective, and the consistent analysis and execution aligned with the identified patterns and signals.
Overall Summary: The trading session was marked by a disciplined approach, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis to confirm a bearish bias. The entry at the PML was well-placed, experiencing no drawdown and indicating strong downside pressure. The decision to lock in profits at $500 was prudent, demonstrating effective trade management and risk control. This trade reinforces the importance of thorough premarket analysis and strategic entry points, contributing to the overall success of the trading session.
10:05 AM. So im currently in a trade, I shorted the PML and its in the money, during the premarket session, I noticed a gap between the prior day close, and the pre market open. And this was under a key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, signaling clear displacement below the key band. I tried a long off of the next VWAP band, and that broke. It was after that loss that I confirmed the shift in direction, when I could have confirmed it after the gap. Also, I could have set an entry where my stop was on the overnight long entry attempt.
The reason I shorted the PML is because it was the only area upon open, that I could see a clear stoploss placement, so I used it as my entry. Im currently not sure how low this is going to drop, as we hit the first wk DOL in the overnight session. But the next day, week, and month lower DOL, is very far away, so I honestly removed a target to the downside, and im just letting it drop. With this type of downside action, on weekly chart moves, these are usually where we get trend days. Also, we are technically in a discount area, on multiple timeframes, so usually when that happens, no one wants to short, because it appears we are low in the range, and also, no one wants to long, because the sellside pressure is so strong, these tend to be the days where everyone just sits on the sidelines and misses big moves.
Another strong signal for this short, was the I went under no drawdown from the time of entry, which signals how strong the downside pressure really is. Im already up 200 points.
Also, a key tell that the downtrend would continue from the gap, is that it also changed the direction of the H12 trend, which is obvously half the amount of time of a full daily candle, so it usually confirms directional bias.
And, on the daily chart, with the prior day close, suggested that the next target higher would be the prior day high wick, and upon the opening of the next day gap, it shifted the daily trend, as the prior day low was broken, and suggested a draw on liquidity at the 2 day prior bar low, near the lower weekly draw on liquidity. And the gap created earlier in the week, off of that chop out 30 day fibonacci trade I took, has been completely absorbed now at the time of writing this.
So overall, this gap between the prior day close and premarket open was a major tell, and can act as displacement to confirm breaks of major levels. It happened at the beginning week gap, claiming the prior month low, which was the turtle soup type of trade that I was looking for.
I think for now I will make a new rule, that if the H12 trend is going against the VWAP Upper or Lowerband Buy Or Sell signals, than I can not take that trade.
My current plan for this trade, is to literally just let it drop for the duration of the trading session. With stops at session HOD, which I dont think will be triggered. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think Im willing to take the bet, as I should be increasing my risk slightly with my journaling data, and because we are now 3 plus weeks into this evaluation. But, the VWAP and the Lowerband are consistenly downtrending, which I take as a continuation sell signal, and massive downside volume.
10:40 AM. Still making lower lows, still no downside target, becuase the next DOL is very far away. Still in a consistent downtrend on the VWAP, and consistently holding below the 21 EMA on M2 chart. The interesting part about my entry, is that not only did it incur zero drawdown, but it also didnt experience any retests of my price. This strongly signals a great entry price.
12:30PM i just got back from a walk. decided to lock it up. im happy with todays profits over $500 dollars. its put my account over the 1K mark
Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.
Trade of the Day Setup:
Premarket Analysis:
Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
Session Analysis:
The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
VWAP Settings and Observations:
Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
No trade day.
This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.
It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.
During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against.
Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries.
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