Bullish Pre Market, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Prior Day High & Low DOL, VWAP (MONTH),

Weekly Trading Summary (July 22, 2024)

Trade Details:

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Asset: /MNQ - Futures
• Trade Type: Short
• Pattern: Bullish Pre Market, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Prior Day High & Low Draw on Liquidity (DOL), Monthly VWAP

Trading Notes:

1. Pre-Market Analysis (8:38 AM)

   • Observed an overnight gap above the prior month's low, indicating potential continuation higher due to in-the-money buy orders from Friday.
   • Daily VWAP trending through its upper band.
   • Monthly VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M chart showed alignment with prior day's high and low liquidity draws.
   • Bias: Expecting a liquidity sweep above the prior day's high followed by a failure.
   • No major economic news anticipated; expected selling into the open.

2. First Trade (9:45 AM)

   • Short trade on the 2-minute chart, stopped out.
   • Maintained the same thesis; looked for re-entry on the 5-minute chart.

3. Second Trade (M5 Re-Entry)

   • Re-entered on the M5 chart based on Monthly VWAP Trend and Variation shift to the downside.
   • Target: Weekly DOL after sweeping prior day's high DOL.
   • Thesis: Expected overnight longs to cover positions into the open, creating sell-side pressure. Anticipated multiple traps (shorts and longs) to be sprung for a downside move.
   • This setup was a playbook trade where a prior day close to pre-market open gap gets absorbed and traded against.

4. Mid-Trade Update (11:30 AM)

   • Trade entered drawdown but moved in the expected direction.
   • Covered 1 of the 2 contracts, holding the 2nd for the full Monthly VWAP upper band to lower band move.

5. End of Day (2:41 PM)

   • The trade ended negatively.
   • Targeting the DOL lower on the week and expecting the playbook trade to play out did not work as planned.
   • Recognized the need to revisit this trade signal for future improvements.

Things Done Right:

• Identified and analyzed key support and resistance levels using VWAP and DOL.
• Maintained a consistent thesis and adapted to re-enter on a higher timeframe (M5) after being stopped out on a lower timeframe (M2).
• Managed risk by covering 1 of the 2 contracts during the trade.

Things Done Wrong:

• Initial trade on the 2-minute chart led to an early stop-out.
• Targeted a specific weekly DOL that did not play out as anticipated.
• The final trade resulted in a loss, indicating a need to reassess the trade signal and entry criteria.

New Key Rules Learned:

• Reassess Entry Criteria: Review and potentially adjust entry criteria when initial trades are stopped out to avoid repeated drawdowns.
• Signal Validation: Further validate trade signals to improve the accuracy of entries, especially for playbook trades.
• Risk Management: Continue refining risk management strategies, including partial covers and setting realistic targets.

By analyzing these notes, you can refine your strategy and rules, focusing on improving your trade entries, managing risk more effectively, and validating your trade signals for better future performance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its currently 8:38 AM as im beginning todays journaling session. And right off of the bat, there is an overnight gap above the prior month low. Which tells me that the buy orders hitting the tape on friday, could very well be in the money for todays trading session for a continuation higher. And since the 1D VWAP is trending through its upperband. I decided to take the next deivation, which actually happened to be the Month VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M. There is also a draw on liquidity for both the high and the low of the prior day. And it aligns pretty well with the Month VWAP bands. So what Im thinking is going to happen, is that there will be a liquidity sweep above the prior day high, and we will see a failure, after the liquidity is swept. That is my current bias. There is no major economic news today either, and I would figure that there should be some selling into the open. 

 

9:45, was just stopped out of an opening short trade on the 2 minute chart, still have the same thesis, will re enter if presented on the M5 chart

I re entered on the M5 Month VWAP Trend And Variation shift to the downside. Targeting the weekly dol after the prior day high dol was swept. I am currently risking another squeeze to grab more buy stops on what I believe is a manipulation trade up. My thesis is that the overnight longs will be covering their positions into the open session here, creating sellside pressure, and that the manipulation up, will have trapped early opening shorts, and also create a false breakout to the upside for longs, trapping them on the way back down. So, theres multiple traps involved in this setup. And it follows our playbook trade, backed by data, where a prior day close to pre market open gap gets absorbed and traded against. So, we will see what happens. Ive made more money to the downside as well than my long trades. If it doesnt work, it is what it is.

11:30, The trade put me into some drawdown, but It is currently in my direction, and I covered 1 of the 2 contracts. Going to attempt to hold the 2nd one for the full Month VWAP Upperband to Lowerband move.

 

2:41PM Red fucking day. What else is new...

I was targeting the DOL lower on the week, and for the playbook trade to play out, and it didnt. Will have to revisit this incorrect trade signal in the future. 

78.6% Fibonacci Long, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bullish Pre Market, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, M1 green bar trail stop, Mean reversion , Mean Reversion Long, Missed Target, Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib, vwap bounce,

Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:

Insights from Your Trade

1. Early Preparation:

   • Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.

2. Utilizing Premarket Analysis:

   • Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.

3. Trade Execution on M1 Chart:

   • Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.

4. Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):

   • Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.

5. Stop Loss Management:

   • Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.

Recommendations for Refinement

1. Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:

   • Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.

2. Partial Profit Taking:

   • Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.

3. Journal and Analyze:

   • Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.

4. Review and Adjust Post-Session:

   • Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.

During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.

Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.

So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.

I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.

Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.

Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points. 

 

(What I Did Right)

- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open

- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket

- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend

 

(What I Did Wrong)

- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early) 

Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven

9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time High Failure, All Time Highs, Bullish Pre Market, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M1 Short, M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Powell, premarket open limit long failure, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Insights and Recommendations:

What You Did Right:

1. Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
3. Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
4. Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
5. Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
6. Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.

What You Can Improve:

1. Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
2. VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
3. Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
4. Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.

Next Steps:

• Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
• Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
• Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
• Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.

Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.

Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.

I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day. 

Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.

 

I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.

ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.

(Things I did right)

- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan

- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH

- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion

- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level

- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade

- Sizing with Open Print Theory

- Trading with a playbook concept

- Following my hard stoplosses

- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.

- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.

- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.

 

Adjustments to strategy

- Potential +2.7 UpperBand & -3.2 lowerband VWAP adjustment

- Potential NO TRADING signal before Jerome Powell