CPI,
Daily FVG,
H12 Bearish Engulfing,
H12 Bullish LIS,
Turtle Soup,
Upperband Short,
Upperband to Lowerband Short,
Here are the key takeaways from your journaling session, along with a key intention for your next trading day:
Regularly update and monitor Fibonacci retracement levels on your charts, incorporating them with other technical indicators and confirmation signals to enhance your trading strategy.
Key Takeaways:
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Market Manipulation Perception: You felt that the market was heavily manipulated today, leading to an unexpected trade outcome. It's crucial to consider this perception and how it might affect your trading strategy and decisions.
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Gameplan Adherence: You followed your gameplan closely but acknowledged areas for improvement, such as taking some risk off the table and adjusting your trailing stop loss.
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Volume and Price Action Analysis:
- Lack of volume expansion following the 8:30 data release was noted.
- The daily chart structure is still bullish, but there's uncertainty due to the bearish engulfing candle on the 12-hour chart.
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Risk Management:
- You identified that taking some profit at key levels (e.g., Daily Upperband) could have reduced downside risk.
- Raising your stop loss to below the demand area created off your long entry could have helped in managing risk better.
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Trade Adjustment and Entry Timing:
- Your initial long entry was based on multiple confirmations, but the price action deviated from your expectations.
- You recognized the missed opportunity to short at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband, although you didn't expect such a significant retracement.
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Re-evaluation of Strategies:
- You are considering implementing a rule to align your trading with the prevailing moving average bias and VWAP bands.
- There is an intention to develop a Fair Value Gap (FVG) strategy to avoid situations where market manipulation and stops affect your trades.
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Swing Trade Consideration:
- You decided to hold the trade as a swing trade despite its initial drawdown, and you are considering implementing a new trading rule based on your experience.
Key Intention for the Next Trading Day:
Focus on Adapting to Market Conditions and Risk Management:
Given today's experiences, your key intention should be to adapt your trading approach to better manage risk and respond to market conditions. This involves:
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Implementing Adaptive Risk Management:
- Set tighter stop losses and consider scaling out of positions at key levels to mitigate potential losses.
- Monitor volume and price action closely to adjust your stop losses dynamically based on market behavior.
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Aligning with the Trend:
- Follow your new rule regarding trading in alignment with the moving average bias and VWAP bands. Ensure your trades correspond with the prevailing trend to enhance the probability of success.
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Developing and Testing New Strategies:
- Begin working on and backtesting your FVG strategy. Having a well-defined plan for handling market manipulation and price reversals will improve your adaptability.
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Maintaining Flexibility:
- Stay flexible and open to adjusting your strategy as market conditions evolve. Be prepared to pivot if the market shows signs of manipulation or if your initial analysis proves incorrect.
By focusing on these areas, you can enhance your risk management, adapt to market conditions more effectively, and improve the consistency of your trading outcomes.
8:36. Entered long.
10:37AM. Absolutely shocked that my trade didnt go in my favor today. This market feels so immensely manipulated. But I followed my gameplan to the T. Theres a couple things I could have done better, such as taking some risk off of the table by covering into the Daily 1 minute Upperband. I did find it a bit strange that there wasnt volume expansion to the upside off of the 8:30 data release. And I also could have raised my trailing stoploss below the M1 demand area that was created off of my long price.
The 12 hour chart experienced a bearish engulfing candle, which is primarily the main timeframe I trade. So theres really not much I could have done analyzing this at the moment. Also, the daily chart structure is still bullish, and could potentially be creating a FVG bottom wick on the current daily candle. But theres really no telling how much lower this can go. I think the only thing I can do is wait for 1PM orderflow, which would be the next 12 hour open candle.
This was a very interesting trading day. Im still currently in the position because I believe it was likely a swing trade entry. So i decided to hold and the trade is not yet closed. The morning felt manipulated, it turtle souped the 8:30 data lows, which I was given a long signal off of because it wicked the Moving average and the LIS. So there was multiple confirmations to take a long trade.
I figured because yesterdays journaling session suggested that because I went against the predominanent trend, attempted to trade the Upperband of the 5D 5M Month VWAP, I should make an adjustment and simplify my trading system by only switching bias when I have been in every way shape and form invalidated. Today, when the market went against my position, It was very unfortunate as I felt It was the best position I could get at that moment. But I guess this is just trading, price can go against you apparently at any moment in time regardless of how many checks you have in your favor.
So there was a trade presented off of the 1D 1Minute VWAP off of the upperband, for an upperband to lowerband short opportunity. This is actually what I expected to happen, because not only was a friend on mine preparing to trade market open shorts, but also because I seen the price action developing around the upperband, and noticed there was a short opportunity present. I just thought it would likely be a fakeout, and if not a fakeout, I didnt imagine price would retrace as much as it did.
One thing I could have done to avoid this was, A. Take off some profit at the 1D upperband to lower my downside risk, because the 1d 1M VWAP was not exanding to the upside, or signaling any trend continuation at that time. B. I could have raised my stoploss to the 1 minute demand area created off of the long entry signal I took from the moving average & LIS. I labelled it 'Could Have Cut Loss Here'.
I didnt think that a long opportunity would be presented from the open back at the moving average a second time. Because I figured those who traded the data reaction would be the best positioned, or 'early bird gets the worm' type scenario. And i figured that morning shorts would get squeezed out again like the day prior & journaling session suggested.
But this didnt happen, the stops were ran at the CPI data lows, the daily fair value gap was still trying to find a bid on the lower wick, and the market was way below an area where long confirmation could yet again be established. All I did was re enter at the cross of the moving average, which still got me an extension entry on the lower wick of the daily and 12 hour candle.
The position went immediately in the money and experienced almost no drawdown, but my price targets were way higher, which is the reason I am still holding the trade as a swing trade. And its the first swing trade I have yet to backtest.
If it goes in my favor, I will highly consider implementing a new trading rule, which suggests that I can only trade the VWAP band on the 1D 1M chart which corresponds with the prevailing moving average bias.
For example. If the moving average aligns from the VWAP and lowerband, I will think longs. If the moving average aligns with the VWAP and upperband, I will think short, in order to stay with 'the trend is your friend' theory.
Other than that, I think the next think I will have to do it create a FVG strategy that I can implement in the future for the daily chart so that I can avoid being turtle souped and stop ran trying to find a bid on the 3rd candle sequence. Because todays lows were heavily manipulated, and the market topped in the middle of nowhere. I couldnt find any orderblocks or levels on the chart to explain why the market reversed so heavily from where it was. The only indication was the upperband on the 1D 1M VWAP. These are all things I will have to implement in my trading strategy in the future.
