8:30 DATA, accumulation low, Cut Trade Early, ESMI Data, LIS (Bearish), Lowerband to VWAP, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Candle High (Hold Above) Lowerband, Turtle Soup (Prior Daily Low),

Here are the key takeaways from today's trading notes:

1. Neutral Opening Approach: You began the day with no specific directional bias, opting to read pure price action during the 9:30 trading session, while keeping in mind the 4-day bearish orderblock from last week.

2. Bearish Context Awareness: Despite no bias, you were conscious of the prevailing bearish trend from the 4-day bearish orderblock and the overnight selloff, indicating the market might lean bearish.

3. Caution Due to Contract Rollover: Aware of the increased potential for market chop during contract rollover, you decided to avoid meaningless trades and only take an A+ setup with good risk-to-reward.

4. Volatility and No Hasty Entry: You observed high volatility and waited for a confirmed multi-timeframe variation switch before executing a trade, showing patience and discipline in managing risk.

5. Technical Analysis Led Long Trade: Even though the market was flushing to the downside, you anticipated a short squeeze due to sellers trying to sell low rather than high. This led to a long entry targeting the 4-day bearish orderblock for a retest.

6. Missed "Trade of the Day" Setup: You identified the 9:30 short as the "Trade of the Day" setup, a strategy that had worked last week, but you didn't execute it today.

7. Conservative Trade Management: After entering long, you covered the trade early, booking a profit of around 1 R. Despite this, you left the trade template on the screen to see how the trade might have unfolded if held longer.

8. Second Trade Opportunity: After cutting the first trade at 1R, you re-entered in case of a squeeze to the upside, effectively managing risk and positioning for potential upside.

9. Reflections on Swing Shorts: You noted that the successful shorts for the day were those who held positions from Friday's close. You remain curious about whether the market will retest key levels in the upcoming session.

10. New Rule for Orderblocks: You implemented a rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it lowers the probability of a successful entry. This added to your caution about taking further short trades.

Summary:

• You maintained a disciplined, cautious approach with no bias.
• Took a long position despite the bearish context, capitalizing on a potential short squeeze.
• Missed executing the "Trade of the Day" short setup.
• Ended the day up 1 R, showing strong risk management.

 

 

 

Today, we came into the trading day with no directional bias, and decided that we would just read pure price action from the opening bell for the 9:30 trading session.

One thing that I kept in mind from last Friday, was that we have bearish orderflow & distribution from the 4 day bearish orderblock. So when I came to the computer today, I noticed that we were selling off from the overnight, and everything seemed like a bearish bias would have been the correct though process for the trading day, but I still aproached it with an open mind, to just wait for a clean price action signal with good risk to reward, and that I would be content it I didnt execute a trade on the day. We had a bearish line in the sand, and a VWAP lowerband that wasnt being respected in the overnight session. 

I also was aware that there was a contract rollover for the Nasdaq, and I have noticed in the past that there tends to be more chop during contract rollover. Ontop of that, volatility for the trading session was high, so I knew that if there wasnt an A+ setup, I would be content with not trading, to avoid taking any meaningless losses.

When the market opened, we flushed to the downside, but at this point I was just reading price action, and I was waiting for full confirmation of a variation switch from a multi timeframe analysis persepctive. 

I also had in mind that this new weekly candle that has opened, is still in a bearish downtrend, and currently still distributing from the 4 day bearish orderblock, with the prior weekly high, as a supply area. 

But i figured that, there was an extremity to the downside, without full price action confirmation to take the short side trade, and from my technical analysis, it displayed that the real short entry for longs on the session, was near the pre market high and the 4 day bearish orerblock. So I began to assume that shorts would be squeezed due to the fact that they were trying to sell low, rather than sell high. 

So when I went long, I targeted the 4 day bearish orderblock, assuming that we could see a retest, and look for short entries if they provided an opportunity. 

 But as it stands, todays price action displayed that the real shorts who won on the session, were those that swung short from the friday close over the weekend, from the 19555.25 level. I am curious to see if the market will provide another retest of this level. Because there is also an un swept liquidit area above it for a weekly bearish orderblock, but the thing is, if we manage to make it to that level, it will likely be invalidated due to the fact that we recently implemented a new rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it is a less likely chance it will be a high probability trading entry. 

So my thought process is, that if shorts want to stay in control, then this weekly candle should flush out, and hold the 4 day bearish orderblock for a drop lower. For that reason, I left my current trade template still on the screen, even though I covered early, to see if the trade theoretically would have worked if I swung.

Another important thing to note, if that I didnt execute the 'trade of the day setup' that was working all of last week. From what Im looking at, the 9:30 short was the trade of the day setup, and also the overnight short. So i decided to mark those, since they are currently positoned. Will be very telling to see if they get knocked out of position in the overnight and premarket session before tomorrows trading day. 

With that being said, I ended the day green, up around 1 R-Multiple. 

I cut my first trade at 1R, and immediately re entered incase we squeezed to the upside, to bankroll the second trade if it worked. 

1st Higher Low off 1M Demand, 20D 1H 50% FIB Low To High, 2D Bearish Orderblock Target, Cut Trade Early, Higher DOL Moving Average,

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Trade Setup & Execution:

   • You entered your first Topstep combine trade during the overnight session, based on an M1 demand area that aligned with M1 and M5 bullish confluence.
   • Your main level of interest was the 20-day, 1-hour low to high 50% Fibonacci retracement, which you used to identify a potential bottom.

2. Trade Management:

   • You experienced uncertainty about the demand level holding, so you waited for a second reaction before entering.
   • Despite anticipating the trade working out before you slept, the market chopped, and you eventually cut the trade early after waking up 1R positive.
   • Cutting the trade early locked in a win but missed a potential $260 profit that would have been achieved by sticking to your initial profit target.

3. Hindsight Reflection:

   • In hindsight, you recognize that had you followed your original plan and left the trade to work, it would have hit your profit target by 9:49 AM.
   • You acknowledged that although the action was sloppy and involved a fight for price, your analysis was correct, and the trade eventually reached the desired outcome.

4. Lessons Learned:

   • You expressed that while it's fine to have locked in a win, you probably should stick to your trade plan in the future and allow the trade to reach its full potential.
   • You also noted the importance of finding cleaner setups to avoid getting stuck in choppy, accumulative price action.

Summary: Your notes reflect a solid trade setup and execution, but a conservative decision to cut the trade early led to a smaller profit than anticipated. Moving forward, sticking to your trade plan and allowing trades to reach their full potential, as well as focusing on cleaner setups, are key areas for improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I took my first Topstep combine trade here in the overnight session on a long entry from an M1 demand area created. I was unsure if the demand level would immediately drop, so I waited for a second reaction off of the m1 demand area, and had an M1 and M5 bullish confluence upon entry.

I was anticipating that the trade would work before I fell asleep, but it didnt, and I was watching it chop from the moment I entered, so when I woke up I was roughly 1R positive on the trade, so I decided to just cut it and lock in my first win to start the account off in a positive direction.

In hindsight, had I just left the trade, I wouldve reached my profit target, which at that time was just the premarket open print, and I would have made around $260. Its fine. Im okay that I cut the trade early, althought I probably should just stick to the plan in the future.

It was sloppy action on the 20D 1 Hour low to high 50% fib, which was the main level I was trading off of to find a potential bottom. There was multiple M1 demand areas created from the PML created on this trading session, and an overall fight for price. So I was stuck in an overall accumulation that didnt want to pop at the time. But I would have hit my profit target at 9:49AM. Next side I guess I should obsviously just let the trade work. But I think we can find a cleaner setup.