9:30 Open Short, Daily Bearish Structure, Daily Bearish Trend, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, Pre Market Open Short, Weekly Bullish to Bearish Trend , Weekly Inverse FVG, Weekly Trend Reversal,

Trade Details: July 17, 2024

• Status: Closed
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 17, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: No Trade
• Patterns:
  • None executed

Notes:

Today's Trade Setup and Observations:

• No Trade Day:

  • Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
  • Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.

• Trade of the Day Setup:

  • Premarket Analysis:
    • Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
    • Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
  • Session Analysis:
    • The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
    • No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
  • VWAP Settings and Observations:
    • Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
    • Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
    • Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.

Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):

1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

   • Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
   • Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.

2. Entry Criteria:

   • Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
   • Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.

3. Stop Loss and Targets:

   • Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
   • Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.

4. Execution Strategy:

   • Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
   • Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.

5. Data Collection and Analysis:

   • Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
   • Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.

6. Avoid Overtrading:

   • If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

7. Premarket Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
   • Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.

8. Mental Preparedness:

   • If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
   • Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.

9. VWAP Tracking:

   • Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
   • Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.

10. Incorporate Weekly Analysis:

    • Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
    • Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.

11. Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:

    • Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
    • Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.

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No trade day.

This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.

It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.

During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against. 

Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries. 

2 Day Anchored VWAP Short, 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short, Daily Bearish Structure, Daily Bearish Trend, H1 TrailStop, H2 TrailStop, M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Playbook , PML Target, Prior Day High Break & Reversal, Trade Of The Day , Week Range, Wk Bullish Structure, Wk Bullish Trend,

Trade Details: July 15, 2024

• Status: No Trade Day (Execution Issues)
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 15, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 2 Day Anchored VWAP Short
  • 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep
  • Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short
  • Daily Bearish Structure
  • Daily Bearish Trend
  • H1 TrailStop
  • H2 TrailStop
  • M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • Playbook
  • PML Target
  • Prior Day High Break & Reversal
  • Trade Of The Day
  • Week Range
  • Wk Bullish Structure
  • Wk Bullish Trend

Notes:

No Trade Day: Executional issues with APEX prevented trade execution. Encountered 'trading temporarily halted' error.

Trade of the Day Setup:

Observations:

• Anchored VWAP Analysis:

  • Analyzed the 2 Day Anchored VWAP during the premarket session.
  • Identified that the prior day high and low were distant.
  • Noted the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided a short signal at the top of the band.

• Daily Chart Analysis:

  • Suggested a draw on liquidity to the prior day low due to the daily candle downtrend.
  • Weekly chart indicated a draw on liquidity to the prior week high because of the weekly uptrend.

Trade Setup:

• Entry:

  • Best timeframe for execution: M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal.
  • Used the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V (or ^).
  • Executed with a sell stop order.
  • Stop loss: Set at the high of the day (HOD).

• Orderblock Rejections:

  • Observed 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections.
  • Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).

Future Strategy Adjustments:

• Execution Timeframe:

  • When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
  • Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.

• Execution Data:

  • More data should suggest the best possible approach.
  • Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.

Mental Trade:

• Mental Long Entry:

  • Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
  • The trade wound up failing.
  • It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.

• Setup Classifications:

  • A Side Setup: Initial move.
  • B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
  • C Setup: To be defined in the future.

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Action Points:

1. Higher Timeframe Confirmation:

   • Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.

2. Execution Timeframe:

   • Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.

3. Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:

   • If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.

4. Follow Setup Classifications:

   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted' 

But here is the trade of the day setup.

For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band. 

On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.

So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed. 

Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD. 

There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)

So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.

Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.