Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.
Trade of the Day Setup:
Premarket Analysis:
Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
Session Analysis:
The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
VWAP Settings and Observations:
Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
No trade day.
This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.
It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.
During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against.
Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries.
Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
Market Context:
The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.
Things Done Right:
Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.
Things Done Wrong:
Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.
Recommendations and Checklist
Recommendations:
Preparation:
Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.
Trade Management:
Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.
Market Context:
Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.
Review and Adapt:
Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.
Structured Checklist
Before Market Open:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.
Pre-Trade:
Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.
During Trading:
Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.
Post-Trade:
Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.
Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.
Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.
I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.
Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.
There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.
I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented.
Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines
This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided
Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal
Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.
Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.
(Things I Did Right)
- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry
(Things I Did Wrong)
- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)
- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand
- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release
Self-Discipline: Opting not to trade after waking up late shows strong self-discipline. Recognizing when you're not in the best state to trade can prevent unnecessary losses.
Reflection: You took the time to analyze the missed opportunity and drew valuable insights from it.
Strategy Insight: Identified that default timeframes provided a better R/R trading opportunity compared to custom timeframes.
Areas for Improvement
Morning Routine: Waking up on time is crucial, especially on days with significant data releases. Ensure your alarm setup is reliable and consider setting multiple alarms if necessary.
Key Takeaways
Adaptability: Understanding that default timeframes may offer better R/R opportunities is valuable. Adjusting your strategy to capitalize on these insights will enhance your trading performance.
Trend Confirmation: Recognizing the importance of H4 timeframe in play while also understanding the role of H6 and H12 for overall market context shows your growing analytical skills.
Action Plan
Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:
Set multiple alarms and place your alarm device at a distance to ensure you wake up on time.
Consider going to bed earlier on trading days with important data releases.
Default Timeframe Focus:
Shift your focus to executing trades on default timeframes for better R/R.
Use H6 and H12 timeframes for overall market context and direction but prioritize H1 and H4 for entry points.
Consistent Review:
Continue to review and analyze missed opportunities. This helps you stay prepared for future similar scenarios.
Keep refining your strategy based on these insights.
Example Day Plan
Morning Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release (preferably 2 hours before market open).
Perform your premarket analysis, focusing on default timeframes.
Market Analysis:
Identify the prevailing trend using H6 and H12 for market context.
Look for high R/R opportunities using H1 and H4 for precise entries.
Trading Session:
Execute trades based on your refined strategy, prioritizing default timeframes.
Avoid trading if you miss your morning routine to maintain discipline.
By incorporating these insights and adjustments, you can enhance your trading performance and stay disciplined in your approach. Keep up the good work with your journaling and continuous improvement.
NO TRADE DAY for me.
I woke up at 10:45, slept past my alarm, and I dont think Im going to take any trades on the day, because I missed the best opportunity.
Instead, I will post a picture of the long opportunity presented OTD, that happened just prior to the 9:30 data release on inflation
This trade was basically immediately ITM and experienced almost no drawdown upon entry.
THINGS DONE WRONG
- Woke up late (Should be up at least 1 hour in the future prior to data releases)
THINGS DONE CORRECT
- Deciding not to take any trades on the day after waking up late
One thing that I noticed on this trade is that the default timeframes provided a higher R/R trading opportunity compared to my custom timeframes in terms on trend.
The H4 timeframe was the timeframe in play, and had I waited for H6 and H12 confirmation, I would have got a significantly lower R/R for the trade.
With that being said, I think that H6 & H12 can be used in specific scenarios for overall market context and direction, but I am starting to think that once I have reference from the H6 & H12 charts, to look for the lowest timeframe entries for the draw on liquidity.
I am really enjoying this candle high/candle low & trend trading strategy, its very simple, and seems to be performing well conceptually.
STRATEGY TWEEKS
* ENTRIES WILL ONLY BE PERFORMED ON DEFAULT TIMEFRAMES TO CAPTURE BIGGER R/R TRADES.
Identified Liquidity and Trend: You correctly identified the draw on liquidity and the bearish trend shift on the 2-hour timeframe.
Entry Execution: Entered the trade without emotional involvement once you got the H2 low break confirmation.
Risk Management: Set a stop loss at the 2-hour bar high, allowing for some drawdown without getting stopped out prematurely.
Trade Patience: Let the trade play out even during drawdown, which is a significant aspect of disciplined trading.
Position Sizing: Used the correct position size to manage risk effectively.
Market Preparation: Woke up early to get a solid read on the market, showing dedication to your premarket routine.
Areas for Improvement
Risk/Reward Optimization: Consider tighter R/R by taking H1 candle low breaks instead of H2. This could provide higher rewards with manageable risk.
Trade Management: You could have managed the trade longer using a 2-minute chart/trail stop, potentially increasing your profit.
Platform Synchronization: Address the lag between TOS and Tradovate to ensure better trade management.
Key Takeaways
Adaptation: While you made a conservative choice to lock in early profit, reviewing this decision helps refine your strategy for future trades.
Continuous Improvement: Your self-reflection and journaling demonstrate a commitment to continuous improvement, which is crucial for long-term success.
Strategy Refinement: Considering the use of default timeframes only for trading executions can streamline your approach and provide more consistent results.
Action Plan
Fine-Tune Entry Strategy: Experiment with H1 candle low breaks for a tighter risk/reward profile. Track and compare results with H2 breaks to determine which works better for your strategy.
Improve Trade Management: Implement a trailing stop strategy on the M2 chart for managing trades. Practice this approach in a simulated environment to build confidence.
Platform Synchronization: Investigate the lag issue between TOS and Tradovate. Ensure both platforms are synchronized to avoid premature exits or missed opportunities.
Review and Reflect: Continue your daily journaling and review sessions. Focus on both successful trades and areas for improvement to refine your strategy continuously.
By implementing these steps, you can enhance your trading strategy, manage risk more effectively, and potentially achieve better results. Keep up the disciplined approach and continuous learning.
I have a photo of the actual trade that I took, but the tags were based on the 'Trade Of The Day' Long Setup
Refer back to this in the future.
I took this trade at 9:15 in the premarket when I seen the shift in trend on a multi timeframe perspective/with a bearish trend shift on the 2 hour. I figured the draw on liquidity would most likely aim for the daily low(PML) that was created for the 9:30 session. I set my stoploss at the 2 hour bar high to give myself some wiggle room, which turned out to be a good option, because the trade did put me in some drawtime from the time of entry, and had I made my stoploss any tighter, I most likely would have been stopped out. The trade netted me around a 1.3R, which was fine for me, as it was my first trade on this evaluation, and I just wanted to lock in a winning trade nice and early, break the ice for this account, and start the evaluation off on a good note. My plan is to stay consistent with daily journaling and fine tuning the strategy. Being the best trader I can be is about the work done after hours, not during trading session which is only used to execute. As im journaling this trade, I am noticing that there was definitely a strong signal that I couldve held the trade longer, as its continuing to flush lower, but I didnt want to deal with any green to red trades, and I also only had 1 contract. Had I gone in with 2, I likely would still be in the trade as its still continuing to drop.
I could have got better R/R had I taken the candle low break of the H1 candle instead of the H2, but I guess it was just slightly higher confirmation. Although, maybe in the future we will implement default timeframes only for trading executions. Maybe with a bit more data we will make the adjustment, for now, we will stick to all timeframes including custom.
Also, there was a slight lag between by TOS and Tradovate accounts, which also caused me to have to cover the trade earlier than I wanted. Had it been perfectly synched, I likely would have caught a way bigger move by managing the trail stop on the 2 minute chart.
(THINGS WE COULD HAVE DONE BETTER)
I could have got tighter risk/reward with an H1 bar low break rather than an H2 break.
I could have stayed in the trade a bit longer by managing the trade on the M2 chart/trailstop
(THINGS I DID WELL)
Locating the correct draw on liquidity (Daily PML, 1D and 2D Low, Bearish Trend Shift)
Executing the trade once I got H2 low break confirmation without emotion involved ( I felt a bit hesitant )
Waking up early to get a solid read on the market (7:30 AM)
Letting the trade play out (Not cutting trade early) while in drawdown
Correct sizing (Allowed me to stay in trade & weather the drawdown)
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*Results are not typical and will vary from person to person.
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Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk.
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