1D VWAP UpperBand to Lowerband, 2D 5M VWAP (Month), H12 Bullish Trend, LIS Hold, M2 Entry Loss, M5 Entry Win, VWAP (MONTH), VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Analysis for July 29, 2024

Trade Details

• Published: July 29, 2024, 7:41 p.m.
• Status: CLOSED
• Portfolio(s): APEX PA ACCOUNT 50K
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 29, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 1D VWAP UpperBand to Lowerband
  • 2D 5M VWAP (Month)
  • H12 Bullish Trend
  • LIS Hold
  • M2 Entry Loss
  • M5 Entry Win
  • VWAP Upperband short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes

10:08 AM:

• Initial Trades:
  • Took two small losses off the opening.
  • M2 chart failed on the first sell signal.
  • First trade: A bit of a chase after closing below 19260 (prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband). Should have considered the 1D Lowerband on the session and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP.
  • No red bar closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart, hence no full confirmation of a continuation selloff.
  • Second trade: 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart; correct theory but did not work out.
  • Decision: Focus on the M5 timeframe that worked today.

11:06 AM:

• Current Trade:
  • Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP.
  • Unsure about holding duration but targeting 19030 (an aggressive target).
  • Following the rule of using a lower timeframe entry, then moving to the next higher timeframe if needed.
  • M5 chart was the successful timeframe for the day.

2:58 PM:

• End of Day Analysis:
  • Mentally taxing day, watched position return to breakeven and waited for hours for a drop.
  • Should have covered at the first test of the 2D Month VWAP upperband.
  • Trading with 1 contract made it harder to respect covers.
  • Need to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades with 1 contract.
  • Could have avoided the loss and been up $200 by waiting for the M5 chart instead of M2.
  • Sign trade was going against me: reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift and squeeze of the H12 LIS at 19168.
  • Battle between shorts holding the HOD and longs holding the LOD, with M5 entries from both HOD and LOD holding.

Things Done Right

1. Adaptability: Adjusted to M5 chart after M2 chart trades failed.
2. Stoploss Management: Adhered to stoploss rules and moved up the timeframe for a more reliable signal.
3. Trade Management: Held position with a clear understanding of the trade's setup and signals.
4. Recognition of Patterns: Identified the importance of different VWAP bands and levels in trade decisions.

Things Done Wrong

1. Target Setting: Had an overly aggressive target for the day; should have considered closer profit-taking points.
2. Trade Size Management: Took on too much size with one contract, leading to difficulty in managing the trade.
3. Initial Trade Chasing: First trade was a bit of a chase and not fully confirmed by signals.
4. Timeframe Selection: Initial reliance on M2 chart led to losses; should have waited for M5 signals.

What to Continue Doing

1. Using Higher Timeframes: Continue using higher timeframes for confirmation when lower timeframe signals fail.
2. Adhering to Stoploss Rules: Keep following strict stoploss rules to manage risk.
3. Analyzing Signals: Maintain thorough analysis of entry and exit signals across different timeframes.
4. Journal Keeping: Continue detailed journaling to track performance and learn from each trade.

What to Avoid

1. Overly Aggressive Targets: Avoid setting targets that are too far away; consider more achievable profit-taking points.
2. Large Position Sizes: Avoid taking large positions that are difficult to manage, especially when only trading with one contract.
3. Trade Chasing: Avoid chasing trades without full confirmation of signals.
4. Ignoring Confirmations: Avoid ignoring important confirmations on higher timeframes that contradict lower timeframe signals.

By focusing on these aspects, you can improve your consistency and profitability while avoiding common pitfalls.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

10:08AM: Took 2 papercuts off the opening, M2 chart failed on the first sell signal, im am now taking a M5 sell signal. The first trade I took, was kind of a chase, because we closed below a key level I had at 19260, which was the prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband. I thought because we closed below that level, we would see a continuation selloff. But I should have payed more attention to the 1D Lowerband on the session, and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP. There was no red bar that closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart. So there was no full confirmation of a continuation selloff. The second trade I took, was a 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart, which was the correct theory, just didnt work out. This is why I came to the conclution that tomorrow I will focus on the timeframe that worked today, which was M5

11:06AM: I am currently up on the trade. Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP. Im not exactly sure yet on how long I should be holding this, but sell side liquidity grabs seem to be in play. My ultimate target on the day I guess is 19030. But that is an extremely aggressive target.

It worked very well for me to follow the rule of a stoploss with a lower timeframe entry, when unwilling to give up the same trade idea, just gradually move to the next timeframe higher. It lowers trade frequency, expands the range/scope of the move, and requires more confirmation. But M5 chart was most certainly the winner for the day.

2:58PM: im officially done trading OTD. Very Very mentally taxing first trading day. Watched my entire position come back to breakeven, and wait literally hours for the same drop. Should have covered from the first test of the 2D Month VWAP from the upperband, being I was only trading with 1 contract. This is the difficult part of only utilizing 1 contract. I dont respect covers as much. Its must easier for me to exit a full position when I have at least 2 contracts. 

The main thing I did wrong today was being too far out on my target. The fact that I was playing the Month 2D VWAP, shouldve required me to take profit at the first VWAP test. Instead of going for the prior day band low at 19031.97 which was a 1D M1 Lower Band Target.

With that being said, I think trading 1 contract is going to require me to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades, Its going to be very difficult to catch full top to bottom band moves with only 1 contract. 

Also, I could have avoided todays loss, and been up around 200 OTD only trading 1 micro contract, if I just waited for the turn of the M5 chart instead od M2. I will go into tomorrows trading session with that in mind.

Another sign that the trade was going to go against me was the reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift. It was holding below, but then squeezed the H12 LIS at 19168. 

It was a battle between shorts holding the HOD, and longs holding the LOD. And both M5 entries that came from the HOD and LOD have held this far (3:31PM)

8:30 DATA, 9:30 Open Retest Short, All Bullish SIgnal, All Time Highs, CPI, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Trail Stop, Playbook , Pre Market Open Short, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Short, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Analysis of July 11, 2024

Key Points:

• Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
• Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
• Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
• Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Discipline and Routine:

   • Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
   • Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.

2. Missed Opportunities:

   • While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
   • Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.

3. Trade of the Day Analysis:

   • Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
   • Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.

4. Risk Management:

   • Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
   • Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy

Playbook Development

1. Setup Identification:

   • Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
   • Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.

2. Execution Guidelines:

   • Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
   • Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.

3. Review and Adapt:

   • Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
   • Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.

Checklist for Future Trades

1. Preparation:

   • Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
   • Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.

2. Execution:

   • Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
   • Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.

3. Reflection:

   • Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
   • Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.

By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.

I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.

Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.

One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.

 

78.6% Fibonacci Long, ATH failure, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 prior bar low trailstop, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, Playbook , Pre Market Open Untested, Premarket Low to ATH Fibonacci,

Analysis of Trade of the Day Setup

Key Points:

• Fibonacci Level Utilization: Utilized the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from premarket low to ATH failure as a key entry point.
• Intraday Analysis: Anticipated and monitored a retest of the premarket open for potential long opportunities.
• Playbook Addition: Integrated this setup into your playbook for future reference and monitoring.
• M1 Chart Confirmation: Identified buyers at the Fibonacci level on the M1 chart, indicating strong support.
• H12 Chart Trend: Noted a bullish trend on the H12 chart, with trendline confirmation supporting the trade entry.
• Trade Execution: Noted minimal drawdown if the trade was executed on the M1 chart, followed by significant upside for the rest of the day.
• Trailing Stop Strategy: Recognized the potential for a substantial profit (12R) if trailed on the H2 chart, highlighting effective risk management.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Utilization of Fibonacci Levels:

   • Continue to leverage Fibonacci retracement levels for precise entry points and potential support/resistance areas.
   • Monitor reactions at these levels across multiple timeframes (like M1 for short-term signals and H12 for broader trends).

2. Playbook Development:

   • Expand playbook to include setups based on Fibonacci levels and trendline confirmations across various timeframes.
   • Regularly update and refine playbook entries based on market conditions and historical performance.

3. Risk Management:

   • Implement trailing stop strategies effectively, considering both short-term (M1) and longer-term (H2) chart dynamics.
   • Evaluate potential trade scenarios for maximum risk-reward ratios, aiming for high profitability trades like the observed 12R opportunity.

4. Market Context Awareness:

   • Maintain awareness of broader market trends and intraday fluctuations to validate trade setups.
   • Adapt strategies based on real-time market conditions and adjust entries/exits accordingly.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Entry Criteria:

   • Define clear entry criteria based on Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline confirmations, validated across multiple timeframes.

2. Stop Loss and Take Profit:

   • Establish precise levels using strategic points such as Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline breaks, while considering trailing stop strategies.

3. Execution and Management:

   • Execute trades promptly based on defined criteria and playbook strategies, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols.
   • Monitor trade progress and adjust stops or take profits based on real-time market movements.

Conclusion

By integrating these insights into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data and market conditions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy effectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Todays trade of the day setup came from the 78.6% fibonacci level from the premarket low to the ATH failure.

During the day, I was anticipating a retest of the pre market open for longs, but now I will add this trade setup to my playbook and monitor reactions at the 78.6% fibonacci on the M1 chart for buyers.

Had this trade been taken off of the M1 chart, the drawdown would have been virtually nothing before it took of to reach new highs for the rest of the day.

Also, on this trading day, the H12 chart was trending higher, and I set a trendline from each bars low, I noticed that it also provided a trade signal for this exact entry today

once it broke below the trendline, it was in the demand area, and as soon at the M1 chart flipped, the trade took off.

Trailing this trade on the H2 chart would have provided a 12R trade, MASSIVE!

2nd ATH short attempt, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, immediate stopout, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 red bar trail stop, Missed Target, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Analysis for July 10, 2024

Trade Details:

• Type: Short
• Pattern(s):
  • 2nd ATH short attempt
  • Immediate stopout
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • M1 red bar trail stop
  • Missed Target
  • VWAP Upperband short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Context and Analysis:

• Trade Execution: Attempted a short position following the 2nd attempt at ATH (All-Time High), leveraging various technical patterns for entry.
• Patterns Identified:
  • 2nd ATH short attempt: Capitalized on a potential reversal pattern after failing to break ATH.
  • Immediate stopout: Likely triggered by volatility or quick reversal against the anticipated direction.
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation: Signal of shift from bullish to bearish sentiment on M1 timeframe.
  • M1 red bar trail stop: Used a trailing stop strategy based on M1 bar movements.
  • Missed Target: Potential failure to reach anticipated target due to market dynamics or premature exit.
  • VWAP Upperband short: Positioned entry based on VWAP Upperband indicating potential resistance.
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband: Expected move from VWAP Upperband to Lowerband as confirmation of downtrend continuation.

Analysis and Insights:

• Execution Timing: Attempted to capitalize on reversal patterns near ATH, using technical signals for entry.
• Outcome: Immediate stopout suggests volatility or reversal against the anticipated direction, leading to a small gain.
• Pattern Utilization: Integrated multiple patterns to identify short opportunities aligned with market conditions.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Learning from Immediate Stopout:

   • Evaluate reasons for immediate stopouts to refine entry criteria and avoid false signals.
   • Consider adjusting timing or confirmation signals to reduce premature exits.

2. Pattern Validation:

   • Continuously validate patterns across different timeframes to confirm trade setups.
   • Refine playbook with setups that consistently align with market behavior and trend confirmations.

3. Risk Management:

   • Enhance risk management strategies to mitigate losses during volatile market conditions.
   • Implement trailing stops or adjust position sizing based on pattern reliability and market volatility.

Conclusion

This trade analysis underscores the importance of integrating multiple patterns and technical indicators into a cohesive trading strategy while emphasizing disciplined risk management. Continue to evaluate trade outcomes to refine your playbook and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first short attempt I tried was on prior data suggesting that the 2nd ATH break should provide the HOD from where we could drop. After this first short trade, I could have avoided it by waiting for a test of the VWAP Upperband.

I now know that the VWAP upperband, is a more important factor than the amount of times that the ATH breaks.

And Upperband VWAP test, with an M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation provided a high probability, consistent trade setup thus far. And from the setups I have witnessed, once an extreme on the bands has been hit, it appears that a full move to the other exremity is likely from the point of entry

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Getting a solid entry on the second short opportunity at the M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation setup off of the VWAP Upperband

- Trailstopping half position on the first initial pump back up, allowing me to capture a bit more downside

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Taking profit on the trade too early, without reaching the bottom band as a profit target on the highest R/R short entry opportunity of the day

Just as my prior trade today, I need to develop a trail stopping strategy to help me capture the dominant move in the future, and for now my theory is to test different timeframes based on entries to find which one captures the most amount of profit on average

78.6% Fibonacci Long, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bullish Pre Market, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, M1 green bar trail stop, Mean reversion , Mean Reversion Long, Missed Target, Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib, vwap bounce,

Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:

Insights from Your Trade

1. Early Preparation:

   • Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.

2. Utilizing Premarket Analysis:

   • Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.

3. Trade Execution on M1 Chart:

   • Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.

4. Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):

   • Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.

5. Stop Loss Management:

   • Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.

Recommendations for Refinement

1. Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:

   • Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.

2. Partial Profit Taking:

   • Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.

3. Journal and Analyze:

   • Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.

4. Review and Adjust Post-Session:

   • Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.

During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.

Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.

So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.

I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.

Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.

Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points. 

 

(What I Did Right)

- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open

- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket

- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend

 

(What I Did Wrong)

- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early) 

Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven

9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time High Failure, All Time Highs, Bullish Pre Market, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M1 Short, M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Powell, premarket open limit long failure, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Insights and Recommendations:

What You Did Right:

1. Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
3. Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
4. Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
5. Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
6. Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.

What You Can Improve:

1. Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
2. VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
3. Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
4. Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.

Next Steps:

• Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
• Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
• Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
• Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.

Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.

Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.

I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day. 

Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.

 

I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.

ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.

(Things I did right)

- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan

- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH

- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion

- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level

- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade

- Sizing with Open Print Theory

- Trading with a playbook concept

- Following my hard stoplosses

- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.

- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.

- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.

 

Adjustments to strategy

- Potential +2.7 UpperBand & -3.2 lowerband VWAP adjustment

- Potential NO TRADING signal before Jerome Powell

 

H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish to Bearish Trend Fakeout, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M5 open range low break and reversal, Sunday Session,

 

Trade Type: Short

Pattern(s):

• H12 Bullish Trend
• H4 Bullish to Bearish Trend Fakeout
• M5 Open Range Low Break and Reversal
• Sunday Session

Notes:

• Things I did wrong:

  • Did not wait for the H12 candle to shift bearish, which led to a misaligned trade bias.
  • Did not size the position correctly, resulting in excessive exposure compared to previous successful trades.

• Things I did right:

  • Maintained a structured stop loss strategy based on the H6 candle high.
  • Recognized the choppiness of the trading session and identified the need for better trade selection criteria.

• Changes to trading strategy:

  • Incorporate H12 trend analysis to determine daily bias before executing trades.
  • Integrate TTM Squeeze indicator on the M5 chart to avoid trading during choppy sessions. A red TTM Squeeze signal will prompt a no-trade decision.

These adjustments should help in refining your trading approach by ensuring alignment with longer-term trends and improving trade selection during varying market conditions. If you have further trades or aspects of your strategy to discuss or refine, feel free to share.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Im a bottom tick fucking master. Only thing is, it was the complete opposite directional trade. I shorted at the low of the day. Makes sense.

I took this trade because of a bullish to bearish shift on the H4 chart. Because, apparently, according to my prior data, I should only have been executing on the default timeframes. But it doesnt really seem like it matters at this point, because the break of the H4 uptrend didnt shift the daily to bearish. It just kept going higher. 

I have 3 or 4 other trades to journal. And somehow, I chose to complete top and bottom tick of each opposite side on every single fucking trade.

So the only thing that I can come up with at this point, is that if the 12H bar doesnt shift, then I cannot change my bias. 

(Things I did wrong)

- Not waiting for the H12 candle to shift bearish. 

- Did not size correctly, I went in 4 times heavier on the loss, than I did on my last biggest win, this is unacceptable

(Things I did right)

- Basically nothing, didnt even follow my first inital stoploss at the premarket open daily print. But my stoploss was set at the high of the H6 candle, which at that time, was still offering sell side liquidity in between the H4 and H12 candles. 

 

Today was also a very choppy trading session, and I need to know when to sit out, for this reason, I am going to incorporate the TTM squeeze to give me a clear indication on when I should be involved in a trade

(Changes to trading strategy)

- Use H12 trend to decipher daily bias

- Use TTM squeeze to avoid choppy sessions ( had I used TTM on M5 chart today, I could have avoided the chop on all losing trades ) IF ITS RED, NO TRADE

8:30 DATA, 8:30 Data High Break (M5 Candle Range), H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish to Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation After Data, Playbook , PMH breakout, Premarket Open Retest, Prior ATH Break and Retest,

No Trade Day Notes

Reason for No Trade:

• Due to the 4th of July week and market closing early.
• Noted a correlation between multiple day daily open prints and previous trading losses.

Observations:

• Today's trading setup appeared unmanipulated and straightforward.
• Presented a potential trend day opportunity with:
  • Simple confirmation signals: Data/PMH (Previous Market High)/Multiple trend candle shifts.

Considerations for Future Trades:

• Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
• Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
• Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.

Learnings:

• Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
• Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day.

Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss. 

But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.

It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend. 

Bearish Premarket, Bottom VWAP Long, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Low Hold, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation PML, Support Turned Resistance Fakeout, Turtle Soup, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

What You Did Well

1. Line in the Sand Identification: Successfully identified the critical price level, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance.'
2. Adapting to Market Conditions: After being stopped out, you were able to pivot and take a trade in the opposite direction, showing flexibility.
3. Stop Loss Management: Properly placed and adhered to stop losses, maintaining discipline in risk management.
4. Recognizing Trade Signals: Understanding the importance of the initial trend shift (A side setup) and how subsequent retests (B, C, etc.) weaken the setup.

Areas for Improvement

1. Morning Routine: Waking up past your alarm again is a recurring issue. This needs to be addressed to ensure you're prepared for the trading day.
2. Entry Quality: Took low probability trades away from desired entry points, which led to unnecessary losses.
3. Position Sizing: Took on too heavy of a contract size, going against your position size calculator recommendations.
4. Trade Execution: Placing a limit order short against session open volume instead of using a buy stop to flip the trade thesis was a mistake.
5. Trade Management: Covered the trade too early, missing out on potential profits. Could have managed the trade better by taking off partial positions and leaving runners.
6. Data Awareness: Not marking data drops on candles led to misinterpretations of market movements.

Key Takeaways

1. Default Timeframe Execution: The distinction between H4, H6, and H12 trends shows the need for a clear execution model. Default timeframes seem to offer better clarity for entries.
2. Trend Confirmation: The initial trend break (A setup) is stronger, and retests (B, C, etc.) become progressively weaker. This insight should guide your trade selections.
3. Data Marking: Marking data drops on candles is crucial to understand market reactions and avoid misinterpreting moves.

Action Plan

1. Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:

   • Improve your alarm setup, possibly using multiple alarms or a more disruptive alarm system to ensure you wake up on time.
   • Ensure you're getting adequate rest to avoid oversleeping.

2. Refine Entry Strategy:

   • Stick to high probability entries near desired levels.
   • Use buy/sell stops to enter trades rather than limit orders against session volume.

3. Position Sizing Discipline:

   • Strictly adhere to the position size calculator to avoid taking on excessive risk.
   • If a trade requires a heavier size, ensure it's justified by a higher probability setup.

4. Data Awareness:

   • Mark data release times on your charts to anticipate potential market reactions.
   • Adjust your strategy based on these data points to avoid getting caught in unexpected moves.

Example Day Plan

1. Morning Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release, preferably 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform your premarket analysis, marking key data release times on your charts.

2. Market Analysis:

   • Identify the prevailing trend using H4 and H6 for precise entries, while using H12 for overall market context.
   • Focus on A side setups for higher probability trades.

3. Trading Session:

   • Execute trades based on high probability entries near desired levels, using buy/sell stops.
   • Adhere to position size limits and manage trades by taking partial profits and leaving runners.

By addressing these areas for improvement and refining your strategy based on these insights, you'll enhance your trading performance and maintain discipline. Keep up the diligent journaling and continuous refinement of your approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I ended up breakeven on the day with 3 loser and 1 winner. I did many things wrong today.

(THINGS DONE WRONG)

1. Waking up past my alarm again. Unnaceptable

2. Taking 2 low probability first trades that were away from my desired entry. 

3. Taking too heavy of contract size according to my position size calculator

4. Putting a limit order short at the potential support turned resistance against session open volume, when could have placed a buy stop and flipped my trade thesis

5. Covering the trade far too early, just to break even on the day. I could have taken off 2 contracts of the 3 I had, and left 1 runner.

6. Taking 2 irrelevant trades.

7. Not marking the DATA drops on candles.

 

TELLS that trade would flip

- According to Lance B, the A side of each trade setup is upon the inital trend shift, with each retest become less and less strong of a setup. SO, the initial trend break would be considered the 'A' setup, the break and retest would be considered the 'B' setup, and any retests after that would become C/D etc.

- Upon this initial bearish trend shift on the H4 and H6 charts, The H12, Daily, Weekly ETC still had bullish trending higher lows and higher higher on their candles, my thought process was that, because the H4 and H6 candles shifted bearish, there would be a chance that we can trade into the prior 12 hour low as that would be the bearish draw on liquidity from the H6 bearish trend shift. 

- ALSO, I had made the destinction that it would likely have been smarter to implement a 'Default Timeframe' execution model, which means that the H4 trend shift should have provided a daily low draw on liquidity for bears, but because the prior H12 low was never retested for a bearish draw on liquidity, that means that it was a significant contributing factor for todays bullish continuation to the upside. The best thing to do will be to track data on this, and adjust as we go along, because although yesterday the H12 trend happened later in the session, with lower R/R return from the point of entry, it still ended up higher than where the initial entry trigger suggest, closing higher than the point of entry on the day. SO, while it may not provide the best R/R potential from the point of confirmation, it still may insist on a higher probability in terms of directional bias. 

This H4 low break and trap also took place yesterday (July 2nd 2024) and had the exact same setup, which is most regarded as the 'Turtle Soup' Setup or a 'Potential Support Turned Resistance', The only difference was that yesterday was an H12 potential bearish trend shift, and that meant it could have swept the prior daily low as a liquidity draw. 

Its also very clear that upon the 9:30 session open, the DATA released at 8:15 & 8:30 had been immediately reversed and bought up, so I think it will be beneficial to mark out these data drops on the candle OPEN in the future

(THINGS I DID RIGHT)

- Properly identifying where the 'line in the sand' was OTD, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance'

- Cutting the limit order I had short at the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance' at the correct stoploss of the H6 candle high at that time. 

- Taking a trade in the other direction from which I was initially stopped out of

- Placing the correct stoploss on the trade at the 'Line in the sand' OTD on the 2nd trade and sticking to it.

 

BOTTOM LINE, that line in the sand was the most likely price to be tested upon session open BECAUSE, it would have been the best area for shorts to stab at the trade for a continuation through the lows, and confirmation if broken and held above the the longs.

SO IN THE FUTURE, 'Define the A SIDE SETUP, for the LINE IN THE SAND, on each days trading session

If we took the correct play on todays trading session, we could have profited almost $300 and avoided 2 pointless losses.