H12 Bullish Turtle Soup, Moving Average Long,

Here are the key takeaways from today's trading notes:

1. Missed Initial Data, but Adapted Quickly: You started the day late and missed the initial data but quickly adapted by observing market behavior.

2. 9:30 Session Analysis:

   • The session opened with a break below the H12 Bullish LIS (Level of Interest), but the strong upward momentum kept your moving average strategy valid.
   • You decided not to short the H12 LIS break due to conflicting signals from your moving average, favoring a continuation of the trend instead.

3. Trend-Following Focus: Your primary strategy is trend-following, and you are incorporating multiple timeframes (1-minute, 2-minute, and 5-minute charts) to refine your entries and exits.

4. Added Indicator:

   • Introduced a 2nd standard deviation moving average to identify maximum reversal points.
   • The recent H12 Bullish Turtle Soup setup (on 8/14 during the CPI release) reached this 2nd deviation moving average, which you are using to gauge supply and demand and adjust your bias.

5. Trade Execution:

   • Went long when the price closed above the 1380 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 1-minute chart, which was also above the prior H12 Bullish LIS.
   • Adjusted stop-loss strategy to be tighter based on pivot lows rather than session lows to manage risk more effectively.

6. Profit-Taking:

   • Took profit at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband due to insufficient volume expansion towards the expected weekly liquidity draw.

7. Bias and Trend Management:

   • Your trading bias is determined by the overall trend and LIS levels. Significant breaches in these indicators would influence a change in bias.

8. Strategy Effectiveness: Your current strategy has been working well, contributing to a successful week of trading.

This summary highlights your approach to adapting strategies, managing risk, and adjusting based on market conditions and new indicators.

 

 

I woke up late, missed the data, but quickly spotted the way the market was trading.

At this point, the 9:30 session opened with a break below the H12 Bullish LIS, but the momentum was still so strong to the upside, that my moving average held true to the play of the day setup. Up until this point I havent been able to collect any data on the H12 trend shift, vs a contradicting moving average signal telling me not to short H12 LIS break, but long the continuation of the trend. But as my edge, I am primarily focused on trend following trading strategy building. 

I also decided to add a 2nd standard deviation moving average as a maximum reversal point. And the last H12 Bullish Turtle Soup setup that we had was on the CPI release on 8/14. And at that point, it extended all the way to the second deviation moving average (blue line). So I think between 1 and 2 deviation moving average lines, I should be able to have a clear understanding of supply and demand and quickly formulating my bias on each trading day. 

I went long at a close above the moving average from the 1 minute chart 1380 exponential moving average, which was also in confulence with a wick hold back above the prior H12 Bullish LIS. And I initally had my stops at the session low of day, but I think it would be a good adoption to my strategy to manage risk at the tightest stoploss areas based on the 2 timeframes that I am using for entries such as the 1 minute 2 minute and 5 minute charts. I set my stoploss at the pivot low of the displacement move up above the moving average, as I didnt want to risk as much money at the session low or pre market low. And I took profit at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband. Because volume just wasnt really expanding to the upside towards the weekly draw on liquidity like I expected. 

I think its now safe to say that my bias on the trading day cannot be influenced unless all factors point to a directional change, meaning all trends and LIS levels have been breached completely. 

So far, this strategy seems to be working very well, and it was a great week of trading.