10AM Data, 8:30 DATA, chop, Consumer Sentiment , H12 Bullish Trend Failure, H12 Line In The Sand, M15 Bearish Orderblock, M30 Bearish Trend Shift Signal, Personal Income And Outlays, VWAP Upperband short,

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July 26, 2024

• Trade Entry Time: 9:29 AM
• Asset: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 10 AM Data
  • 8:30 DATA
  • Chop
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • H12 Bullish Trend Failure
  • H12 Line In The Sand
  • M15 Bearish Orderblock
  • M30 Bearish Trend Shift Signal
  • Personal Income And Outlays
  • VWAP Upperband Short

Notes:

• Initial Bias: Long off the open.
• Market Expectation: Response to economic data releases (10 AM, 8:30 AM) and market reaction to consumer sentiment and personal income/outlays data.
• Trade Plan: Short at the VWAP Upperband with expectation of continuation downward post-data releases.

10:06 AM:

• Two losses on trap longs. VWAP action was unproductive.

10:20 AM:

• Contemplated M15 entry but decided against it due to poor R/R.
• Preference for extremity trades at VWAP bands.

10:49 AM:

• Shorted at the area signaled long by the M15 chart.
• Marketed short, breakeven OTD.

11:40 AM:

• Boring session, stuck in a tight range.
• Down $56, aiming to get green OTD.

12:43 PM:

• Frustrated by false signals and missed opportunities.
• Could have been profitable if long at LOD liquidity sweep.

1:38 PM:

• Passed evaluation despite multiple chop outs OTD.
• Noted necessity for deep journaling to avoid future stop outs.
• Recognized over-risking, but trading with weekly profits.

Key Points:

• Right:
  • Accurate identification of bearish signals and alignment with economic data.
  • Entry aligned with multiple timeframe confirmation (H12, M15, M30).
  • Recognized importance of journaling and addressing chop outs.
• Wrong:
  • Multiple stop outs and false signals due to choppy VWAP action.
  • Over-risking despite weekly profits.
  • Missed key liquidity sweep long opportunity.
• New Rules Learned:
  • Implement a rule for avoiding chop outs.
  • Prioritize order blocks alignment:
    • Shorts: Higher timeframe order blocks should be above lower timeframe order blocks.
    • Longs: Higher timeframe order blocks should be below lower timeframe order blocks.
  • Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded.

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Overall Summary

Strengths:

• Strong market analysis and ability to identify traps.
• Effective use of playbook trade principles.
• Recognized need for risk management and journaling.

Weaknesses:

• Struggled with choppy price action and false signals.
• Over-risking and missing key opportunities.
• Need for better confirmation signals to avoid multiple stop outs.

New Key Rules Learned:

1. Reassess timing and confirmation signals before re-entering trades.
2. Incorporate additional data points to strengthen the thesis.
3. Implement order block alignment rules for better trade confirmation.
4. Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded to manage risk.

Overall Performance:

• The week involved a mix of strong analysis and execution issues due to choppy market conditions.
• Important lessons on trade confirmation, risk management, and order block alignment learned for future improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9:29AM. Looking for longs off open atm, would write more detailed but I have 30 seconds.

10:06AM. Ive taken 2 loses on trap longs. Garbage action at the VWAP. 

10:20AM. This is seriously awful price action. I am currently following a rule of going to the next timeframe over if my entry fails. So far I have been stopped out of M2 & M5. I am contemplating M15, but I honestly dont think I want to take the trade. I would prefer an extremity at the VWAP bands at this point. Im thinking to trust a VWAP trade for the 3rd time would be a mistake, also because the R/R would put me at negative R Multiple from the 15M chart.

10:49AM. I took a short at the area where the M15 chart signaled long. I wasnt comfortable taking the trade after that type of trade stopped me out 2 times prior. Also, because of the negative R Multiple, I just marketed short and it got me bascially at breakeven OTD.

11:40AM. Pretty boring trading session, stuck in a tight range, chopping the VWAP with no extremities trade opportunities. Down around $56 on the session. Looking to just get green OTD so I can walk.

12:43 What a stupid fucking trading session. Shit is so fucking annoying. Just constantly giving me flase signals over and over again. If I just took the fucking long trade at the sweep of liquidity lower at LOD, id be up on fucking session and could have walked already. 

1:38PM Passed my evaluation, multiple chop outs OTD, and we will have to do some deep journaling this week to figure out how to avoid that many stop outs in the future. But we put our money where our mouth was. Took on a bit too much risk to be honest. But we were playing with some profits on the week. 

It doesnt matter how much profit we made OTW in theory, because we are against trailing drawdown. 

Trading the M30 trend shift would have resulted in the least amount of drawdown upon entry for the trading session.

I also could have avoided squeeze loses but waiting for the break below the upperband, in which this case, we were trending above from the area we broke out of.

I also think that following the rule of going to the next timeframe higher upon each stopout, would really help with mitigating my risk. 

 

This was a very difficult trading session due to many mixed signals on my days VWAP. I was thinking long, which was the first initial move. I just got chopped out of all of my variation signals. And the moment I tried to trade against the range, I got squeezed. But ultimately, the trade OTD that worked was off of yesterdays orderblock signals, from M30 orderblocks down to the M2 Orderblocks. That was in confluence with another H12 bullish trend attempt and fakeout for a move lower. The only difference with todays setup was that the H12 candle didnt sweep the Buy Side Liquidity from the orderblocks presented before it dropped. Thats why this action was so tricky. It was a fight for price the entire time, and my trend shift signals kept going off, I will have to implement rules that keep me from getting chopped out like this in the future.

The short rejection came from the prior day 15 Minute Bearish Orderblock. The orderblock sequence was larger timeframe orderblocks lower to higher. As the timeframes granually got shorter as the orderblocks went higher, (as it should during a short trade) this M15 bearish orderblock was ABOVE the 5 minute and 2 minute bearish orderblocks. In the future, I will have to make sure that I implement it as a rule, that if there is an inconsistency with orderblocks in relation to their location, that will be the new A+ orderblock rule.

I will make it official

(New Trading Rule For Orderblocks)

Order blocks that come from shorts, tend to come from lower timeframes the higher the orderblock

Orderblocks that come from longs, tend to come from lower timeframes the lower the orderblock

Our new rule is

***If an orderblock from a higher timeframeframe is above an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a short, that will be our short signal***

***If an orderblock from a higher timeframe is below an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a long, that will be our  long signal.***

 

 

NOW THAT YOU ARE FUNDED, YOU **MUST MUST MUST** NOT TRADE MORE THAN 1 MICRO ON ANY GIVEN TRADE FOR **AT LEAST** THE FIRST 10 TRADING DAYS OF BEING FUNDED. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT EXECUTE TRADES WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF RISK YOU HAVE USED TO PASS THIS EVALUATION. OUR MAIN PRIORITY IS SIMPLY GETTING OUR FIRST PAYOUT. MAKING TRADING BECOME REAL, SEEING SOMETHING IN RETURN FOR THE YEARS OF HARD WORK AND DEDICATION YOU HAVE PUT TOWARDS THIS CRAFT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF, AND YOU DESERVE IT. 

IF YOU TAKE 1 MICRO CONTRACT WITH YOUR SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE YOUR TRADING FREQUENCY, BUILD THE CONFIDENCE FOR HITTING THE BUY OR SELL BUTTON AND GETTING RID OF FEAR AND HESITATION, HELPING YOU FINE TUNE YOUR STRATEGY IN THE PROCESS SO THAT YOU CAN HELP DEVELOP YOUR PLAYBOOK AND TRADING RULES. 

WITH GOOD TRADES YOU SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MAKE AROUND 250-300 BUCKS TRADING A DAY. AND AFTER THE 10 DAY PERIOD, THAT IS A 2500 PAYOUT, 5K A MONTH, 

LETS DO THIS.

 

 

1PM Sell SIde, 9:30 Open Downside Drive, H12 Bullish Trend Failure, H12 Line In The Sand, H12 Range, H6 Bullish Order Block, Higher DOL, Lower DOL, PML Short, Trend Below Lowerband, V Shaped Recovery, vwap bounce, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 8:17 PM
• Status: Closed
• Asset: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 1PM Sell Side
  • 9:30 Open Downside Drive
  • H12 Bullish Trend Failure
  • H12 Line In The Sand
  • H12 Range
  • H6 Bullish Order Block
  • Higher DOL
  • Lower DOL
  • PML Short
  • Trend Below Lowerband
  • V Shaped Recovery
  • VWAP Bounce
  • VWAP Lowerband To Upperband
  • VWAP Upperband Short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes:

• 9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
• 11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
• 3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
• General Observations:
  • Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
  • Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
  • Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.

Key Takeaways:

• Right:

  • Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
  • Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.

• Wrong:

  • Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
  • Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.

Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.

Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.

11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick. 

3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.

Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future. 

Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops.