9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time High Failure, All Time Highs, Bullish Pre Market, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M1 Short, M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Powell, premarket open limit long failure, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Insights and Recommendations:

What You Did Right:

1. Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
3. Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
4. Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
5. Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
6. Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.

What You Can Improve:

1. Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
2. VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
3. Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
4. Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.

Next Steps:

• Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
• Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
• Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
• Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.

Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.

Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.

I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day. 

Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.

 

I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.

ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.

(Things I did right)

- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan

- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH

- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion

- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level

- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade

- Sizing with Open Print Theory

- Trading with a playbook concept

- Following my hard stoplosses

- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.

- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.

- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.

 

Adjustments to strategy

- Potential +2.7 UpperBand & -3.2 lowerband VWAP adjustment

- Potential NO TRADING signal before Jerome Powell

 

8:30 DATA, 8:30 Data High Break (M5 Candle Range), H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish to Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation After Data, Playbook , PMH breakout, Premarket Open Retest, Prior ATH Break and Retest,

No Trade Day Notes

Reason for No Trade:

• Due to the 4th of July week and market closing early.
• Noted a correlation between multiple day daily open prints and previous trading losses.

Observations:

• Today's trading setup appeared unmanipulated and straightforward.
• Presented a potential trend day opportunity with:
  • Simple confirmation signals: Data/PMH (Previous Market High)/Multiple trend candle shifts.

Considerations for Future Trades:

• Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
• Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
• Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.

Learnings:

• Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
• Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day.

Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss. 

But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.

It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend. 

Bearish Premarket, Bottom VWAP Long, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Low Hold, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation PML, Support Turned Resistance Fakeout, Turtle Soup, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

What You Did Well

1. Line in the Sand Identification: Successfully identified the critical price level, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance.'
2. Adapting to Market Conditions: After being stopped out, you were able to pivot and take a trade in the opposite direction, showing flexibility.
3. Stop Loss Management: Properly placed and adhered to stop losses, maintaining discipline in risk management.
4. Recognizing Trade Signals: Understanding the importance of the initial trend shift (A side setup) and how subsequent retests (B, C, etc.) weaken the setup.

Areas for Improvement

1. Morning Routine: Waking up past your alarm again is a recurring issue. This needs to be addressed to ensure you're prepared for the trading day.
2. Entry Quality: Took low probability trades away from desired entry points, which led to unnecessary losses.
3. Position Sizing: Took on too heavy of a contract size, going against your position size calculator recommendations.
4. Trade Execution: Placing a limit order short against session open volume instead of using a buy stop to flip the trade thesis was a mistake.
5. Trade Management: Covered the trade too early, missing out on potential profits. Could have managed the trade better by taking off partial positions and leaving runners.
6. Data Awareness: Not marking data drops on candles led to misinterpretations of market movements.

Key Takeaways

1. Default Timeframe Execution: The distinction between H4, H6, and H12 trends shows the need for a clear execution model. Default timeframes seem to offer better clarity for entries.
2. Trend Confirmation: The initial trend break (A setup) is stronger, and retests (B, C, etc.) become progressively weaker. This insight should guide your trade selections.
3. Data Marking: Marking data drops on candles is crucial to understand market reactions and avoid misinterpreting moves.

Action Plan

1. Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:

   • Improve your alarm setup, possibly using multiple alarms or a more disruptive alarm system to ensure you wake up on time.
   • Ensure you're getting adequate rest to avoid oversleeping.

2. Refine Entry Strategy:

   • Stick to high probability entries near desired levels.
   • Use buy/sell stops to enter trades rather than limit orders against session volume.

3. Position Sizing Discipline:

   • Strictly adhere to the position size calculator to avoid taking on excessive risk.
   • If a trade requires a heavier size, ensure it's justified by a higher probability setup.

4. Data Awareness:

   • Mark data release times on your charts to anticipate potential market reactions.
   • Adjust your strategy based on these data points to avoid getting caught in unexpected moves.

Example Day Plan

1. Morning Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release, preferably 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform your premarket analysis, marking key data release times on your charts.

2. Market Analysis:

   • Identify the prevailing trend using H4 and H6 for precise entries, while using H12 for overall market context.
   • Focus on A side setups for higher probability trades.

3. Trading Session:

   • Execute trades based on high probability entries near desired levels, using buy/sell stops.
   • Adhere to position size limits and manage trades by taking partial profits and leaving runners.

By addressing these areas for improvement and refining your strategy based on these insights, you'll enhance your trading performance and maintain discipline. Keep up the diligent journaling and continuous refinement of your approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I ended up breakeven on the day with 3 loser and 1 winner. I did many things wrong today.

(THINGS DONE WRONG)

1. Waking up past my alarm again. Unnaceptable

2. Taking 2 low probability first trades that were away from my desired entry. 

3. Taking too heavy of contract size according to my position size calculator

4. Putting a limit order short at the potential support turned resistance against session open volume, when could have placed a buy stop and flipped my trade thesis

5. Covering the trade far too early, just to break even on the day. I could have taken off 2 contracts of the 3 I had, and left 1 runner.

6. Taking 2 irrelevant trades.

7. Not marking the DATA drops on candles.

 

TELLS that trade would flip

- According to Lance B, the A side of each trade setup is upon the inital trend shift, with each retest become less and less strong of a setup. SO, the initial trend break would be considered the 'A' setup, the break and retest would be considered the 'B' setup, and any retests after that would become C/D etc.

- Upon this initial bearish trend shift on the H4 and H6 charts, The H12, Daily, Weekly ETC still had bullish trending higher lows and higher higher on their candles, my thought process was that, because the H4 and H6 candles shifted bearish, there would be a chance that we can trade into the prior 12 hour low as that would be the bearish draw on liquidity from the H6 bearish trend shift. 

- ALSO, I had made the destinction that it would likely have been smarter to implement a 'Default Timeframe' execution model, which means that the H4 trend shift should have provided a daily low draw on liquidity for bears, but because the prior H12 low was never retested for a bearish draw on liquidity, that means that it was a significant contributing factor for todays bullish continuation to the upside. The best thing to do will be to track data on this, and adjust as we go along, because although yesterday the H12 trend happened later in the session, with lower R/R return from the point of entry, it still ended up higher than where the initial entry trigger suggest, closing higher than the point of entry on the day. SO, while it may not provide the best R/R potential from the point of confirmation, it still may insist on a higher probability in terms of directional bias. 

This H4 low break and trap also took place yesterday (July 2nd 2024) and had the exact same setup, which is most regarded as the 'Turtle Soup' Setup or a 'Potential Support Turned Resistance', The only difference was that yesterday was an H12 potential bearish trend shift, and that meant it could have swept the prior daily low as a liquidity draw. 

Its also very clear that upon the 9:30 session open, the DATA released at 8:15 & 8:30 had been immediately reversed and bought up, so I think it will be beneficial to mark out these data drops on the candle OPEN in the future

(THINGS I DID RIGHT)

- Properly identifying where the 'line in the sand' was OTD, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance'

- Cutting the limit order I had short at the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance' at the correct stoploss of the H6 candle high at that time. 

- Taking a trade in the other direction from which I was initially stopped out of

- Placing the correct stoploss on the trade at the 'Line in the sand' OTD on the 2nd trade and sticking to it.

 

BOTTOM LINE, that line in the sand was the most likely price to be tested upon session open BECAUSE, it would have been the best area for shorts to stab at the trade for a continuation through the lows, and confirmation if broken and held above the the longs.

SO IN THE FUTURE, 'Define the A SIDE SETUP, for the LINE IN THE SAND, on each days trading session

If we took the correct play on todays trading session, we could have profited almost $300 and avoided 2 pointless losses.

 

 

9:30 DATA, Bearish Premarket, Bullish Trend Shift, Data Release, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Candle High Break, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 prior bar low trailstop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Candle High Break, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, Inflation Data, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, Mo Bullish Structure, Mo Bullish Trend, Playbook , Prior Day Long Level, Trade Of The Day , Wk Bearish Trend, Wk Bullish Structure,

What You Did Well

1. Self-Discipline: Opting not to trade after waking up late shows strong self-discipline. Recognizing when you're not in the best state to trade can prevent unnecessary losses.
2. Reflection: You took the time to analyze the missed opportunity and drew valuable insights from it.
3. Strategy Insight: Identified that default timeframes provided a better R/R trading opportunity compared to custom timeframes.

Areas for Improvement

1. Morning Routine: Waking up on time is crucial, especially on days with significant data releases. Ensure your alarm setup is reliable and consider setting multiple alarms if necessary.

Key Takeaways

1. Adaptability: Understanding that default timeframes may offer better R/R opportunities is valuable. Adjusting your strategy to capitalize on these insights will enhance your trading performance.
2. Trend Confirmation: Recognizing the importance of H4 timeframe in play while also understanding the role of H6 and H12 for overall market context shows your growing analytical skills.

Action Plan

1. Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:

   • Set multiple alarms and place your alarm device at a distance to ensure you wake up on time.
   • Consider going to bed earlier on trading days with important data releases.

2. Default Timeframe Focus:

   • Shift your focus to executing trades on default timeframes for better R/R.
   • Use H6 and H12 timeframes for overall market context and direction but prioritize H1 and H4 for entry points.

3. Consistent Review:

   • Continue to review and analyze missed opportunities. This helps you stay prepared for future similar scenarios.
   • Keep refining your strategy based on these insights.

Example Day Plan

1. Morning Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release (preferably 2 hours before market open).
   • Perform your premarket analysis, focusing on default timeframes.

2. Market Analysis:

   • Identify the prevailing trend using H6 and H12 for market context.
   • Look for high R/R opportunities using H1 and H4 for precise entries.

3. Trading Session:

   • Execute trades based on your refined strategy, prioritizing default timeframes.
   • Avoid trading if you miss your morning routine to maintain discipline.

By incorporating these insights and adjustments, you can enhance your trading performance and stay disciplined in your approach. Keep up the good work with your journaling and continuous improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NO TRADE DAY for me.

I woke up at 10:45, slept past my alarm, and I dont think Im going to take any trades on the day, because I missed the best opportunity.

Instead, I will post a picture of the long opportunity presented OTD, that happened just prior to the 9:30 data release on inflation

This trade was basically immediately ITM and experienced almost no drawdown upon entry. 

 

THINGS DONE WRONG

- Woke up late (Should be up at least 1 hour in the future prior to data releases)

THINGS DONE CORRECT

- Deciding not to take any trades on the day after waking up late

 

One thing that I noticed on this trade is that the default timeframes provided a higher R/R trading opportunity compared to my custom timeframes in terms on trend.

The H4 timeframe was the timeframe in play, and had I waited for H6 and H12 confirmation, I would have got a significantly lower R/R for the trade.

With that being said, I think that H6 & H12 can be used in specific scenarios for overall market context and direction, but I am starting to think that once I have reference from the H6 & H12 charts, to look for the lowest timeframe entries for the draw on liquidity.

I am really enjoying this candle high/candle low & trend trading strategy, its very simple, and seems to be performing well conceptually.

 

STRATEGY TWEEKS 

* ENTRIES WILL ONLY BE PERFORMED ON DEFAULT TIMEFRAMES TO CAPTURE BIGGER R/R TRADES.