5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, 8:30 DATA, Blue Zone, DATA Setup, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Bullish Structure, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation DATA Reaction, Playbook , PPI, Trade Of The Day , Uptrend Continuation, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside),

Trade Setup Analysis for July 12, 2024

Key Points from Notes:

• Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
• Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
• Market Context:
  • The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
  • Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
  • The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
• BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
• VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.

Things Done Right:

1. Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.

Things Done Wrong:

1. Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
2. Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
3. Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.

Recommendations and Checklist

Recommendations:

1. Preparation:

   • Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
   • Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.

2. Trade Management:

   • Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
   • Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.

3. Market Context:

   • Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
   • BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.

4. Review and Adapt:

   • Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
   • Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.

Structured Checklist

Before Market Open:

1. Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
2. Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
3. Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.

Pre-Trade:

1. Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
2. Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
3. Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
4. Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.

During Trading:

1. Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
2. Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
3. Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.

Post-Trade:

1. Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
2. Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
3. Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.

Playbook Strategy for July 12, 2024

• Pattern: 8:30 DATA, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside)
• Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
• Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
• Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
• Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.

I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.

Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.

There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.

I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented. 

Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines

This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided

Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal

Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.

Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry

 

(Things I Did Wrong)

- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)

- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand

- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release

 

 

8:30 DATA, 9:30 Open Retest Short, All Bullish SIgnal, All Time Highs, CPI, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Trail Stop, Playbook , Pre Market Open Short, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Short, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Analysis of July 11, 2024

Key Points:

• Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
• Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
• Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
• Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Discipline and Routine:

   • Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
   • Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.

2. Missed Opportunities:

   • While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
   • Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.

3. Trade of the Day Analysis:

   • Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
   • Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.

4. Risk Management:

   • Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
   • Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy

Playbook Development

1. Setup Identification:

   • Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
   • Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.

2. Execution Guidelines:

   • Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
   • Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.

3. Review and Adapt:

   • Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
   • Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.

Checklist for Future Trades

1. Preparation:

   • Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
   • Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.

2. Execution:

   • Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
   • Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.

3. Reflection:

   • Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
   • Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.

By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.

I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.

Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.

One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.

 

78.6% Fibonacci Long, ATH failure, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 prior bar low trailstop, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, Playbook , Pre Market Open Untested, Premarket Low to ATH Fibonacci,

Analysis of Trade of the Day Setup

Key Points:

• Fibonacci Level Utilization: Utilized the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from premarket low to ATH failure as a key entry point.
• Intraday Analysis: Anticipated and monitored a retest of the premarket open for potential long opportunities.
• Playbook Addition: Integrated this setup into your playbook for future reference and monitoring.
• M1 Chart Confirmation: Identified buyers at the Fibonacci level on the M1 chart, indicating strong support.
• H12 Chart Trend: Noted a bullish trend on the H12 chart, with trendline confirmation supporting the trade entry.
• Trade Execution: Noted minimal drawdown if the trade was executed on the M1 chart, followed by significant upside for the rest of the day.
• Trailing Stop Strategy: Recognized the potential for a substantial profit (12R) if trailed on the H2 chart, highlighting effective risk management.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Utilization of Fibonacci Levels:

   • Continue to leverage Fibonacci retracement levels for precise entry points and potential support/resistance areas.
   • Monitor reactions at these levels across multiple timeframes (like M1 for short-term signals and H12 for broader trends).

2. Playbook Development:

   • Expand playbook to include setups based on Fibonacci levels and trendline confirmations across various timeframes.
   • Regularly update and refine playbook entries based on market conditions and historical performance.

3. Risk Management:

   • Implement trailing stop strategies effectively, considering both short-term (M1) and longer-term (H2) chart dynamics.
   • Evaluate potential trade scenarios for maximum risk-reward ratios, aiming for high profitability trades like the observed 12R opportunity.

4. Market Context Awareness:

   • Maintain awareness of broader market trends and intraday fluctuations to validate trade setups.
   • Adapt strategies based on real-time market conditions and adjust entries/exits accordingly.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Entry Criteria:

   • Define clear entry criteria based on Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline confirmations, validated across multiple timeframes.

2. Stop Loss and Take Profit:

   • Establish precise levels using strategic points such as Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline breaks, while considering trailing stop strategies.

3. Execution and Management:

   • Execute trades promptly based on defined criteria and playbook strategies, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols.
   • Monitor trade progress and adjust stops or take profits based on real-time market movements.

Conclusion

By integrating these insights into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data and market conditions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy effectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Todays trade of the day setup came from the 78.6% fibonacci level from the premarket low to the ATH failure.

During the day, I was anticipating a retest of the pre market open for longs, but now I will add this trade setup to my playbook and monitor reactions at the 78.6% fibonacci on the M1 chart for buyers.

Had this trade been taken off of the M1 chart, the drawdown would have been virtually nothing before it took of to reach new highs for the rest of the day.

Also, on this trading day, the H12 chart was trending higher, and I set a trendline from each bars low, I noticed that it also provided a trade signal for this exact entry today

once it broke below the trendline, it was in the demand area, and as soon at the M1 chart flipped, the trade took off.

Trailing this trade on the H2 chart would have provided a 12R trade, MASSIVE!

2nd ATH short attempt, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, immediate stopout, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 red bar trail stop, Missed Target, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Analysis for July 10, 2024

Trade Details:

• Type: Short
• Pattern(s):
  • 2nd ATH short attempt
  • Immediate stopout
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • M1 red bar trail stop
  • Missed Target
  • VWAP Upperband short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Context and Analysis:

• Trade Execution: Attempted a short position following the 2nd attempt at ATH (All-Time High), leveraging various technical patterns for entry.
• Patterns Identified:
  • 2nd ATH short attempt: Capitalized on a potential reversal pattern after failing to break ATH.
  • Immediate stopout: Likely triggered by volatility or quick reversal against the anticipated direction.
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation: Signal of shift from bullish to bearish sentiment on M1 timeframe.
  • M1 red bar trail stop: Used a trailing stop strategy based on M1 bar movements.
  • Missed Target: Potential failure to reach anticipated target due to market dynamics or premature exit.
  • VWAP Upperband short: Positioned entry based on VWAP Upperband indicating potential resistance.
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband: Expected move from VWAP Upperband to Lowerband as confirmation of downtrend continuation.

Analysis and Insights:

• Execution Timing: Attempted to capitalize on reversal patterns near ATH, using technical signals for entry.
• Outcome: Immediate stopout suggests volatility or reversal against the anticipated direction, leading to a small gain.
• Pattern Utilization: Integrated multiple patterns to identify short opportunities aligned with market conditions.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Learning from Immediate Stopout:

   • Evaluate reasons for immediate stopouts to refine entry criteria and avoid false signals.
   • Consider adjusting timing or confirmation signals to reduce premature exits.

2. Pattern Validation:

   • Continuously validate patterns across different timeframes to confirm trade setups.
   • Refine playbook with setups that consistently align with market behavior and trend confirmations.

3. Risk Management:

   • Enhance risk management strategies to mitigate losses during volatile market conditions.
   • Implement trailing stops or adjust position sizing based on pattern reliability and market volatility.

Conclusion

This trade analysis underscores the importance of integrating multiple patterns and technical indicators into a cohesive trading strategy while emphasizing disciplined risk management. Continue to evaluate trade outcomes to refine your playbook and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first short attempt I tried was on prior data suggesting that the 2nd ATH break should provide the HOD from where we could drop. After this first short trade, I could have avoided it by waiting for a test of the VWAP Upperband.

I now know that the VWAP upperband, is a more important factor than the amount of times that the ATH breaks.

And Upperband VWAP test, with an M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation provided a high probability, consistent trade setup thus far. And from the setups I have witnessed, once an extreme on the bands has been hit, it appears that a full move to the other exremity is likely from the point of entry

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Getting a solid entry on the second short opportunity at the M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation setup off of the VWAP Upperband

- Trailstopping half position on the first initial pump back up, allowing me to capture a bit more downside

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Taking profit on the trade too early, without reaching the bottom band as a profit target on the highest R/R short entry opportunity of the day

Just as my prior trade today, I need to develop a trail stopping strategy to help me capture the dominant move in the future, and for now my theory is to test different timeframes based on entries to find which one captures the most amount of profit on average

78.6% Fibonacci Long, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bullish Pre Market, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, M1 green bar trail stop, Mean reversion , Mean Reversion Long, Missed Target, Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib, vwap bounce,

Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:

Insights from Your Trade

1. Early Preparation:

   • Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.

2. Utilizing Premarket Analysis:

   • Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.

3. Trade Execution on M1 Chart:

   • Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.

4. Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):

   • Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.

5. Stop Loss Management:

   • Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.

Recommendations for Refinement

1. Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:

   • Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.

2. Partial Profit Taking:

   • Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.

3. Journal and Analyze:

   • Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.

4. Review and Adjust Post-Session:

   • Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.

During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.

Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.

So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.

I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.

Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.

Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points. 

 

(What I Did Right)

- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open

- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket

- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend

 

(What I Did Wrong)

- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early) 

Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven

H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish to Bearish Trend Fakeout, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M5 open range low break and reversal, Sunday Session,

 

Trade Type: Short

Pattern(s):

• H12 Bullish Trend
• H4 Bullish to Bearish Trend Fakeout
• M5 Open Range Low Break and Reversal
• Sunday Session

Notes:

• Things I did wrong:

  • Did not wait for the H12 candle to shift bearish, which led to a misaligned trade bias.
  • Did not size the position correctly, resulting in excessive exposure compared to previous successful trades.

• Things I did right:

  • Maintained a structured stop loss strategy based on the H6 candle high.
  • Recognized the choppiness of the trading session and identified the need for better trade selection criteria.

• Changes to trading strategy:

  • Incorporate H12 trend analysis to determine daily bias before executing trades.
  • Integrate TTM Squeeze indicator on the M5 chart to avoid trading during choppy sessions. A red TTM Squeeze signal will prompt a no-trade decision.

These adjustments should help in refining your trading approach by ensuring alignment with longer-term trends and improving trade selection during varying market conditions. If you have further trades or aspects of your strategy to discuss or refine, feel free to share.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Im a bottom tick fucking master. Only thing is, it was the complete opposite directional trade. I shorted at the low of the day. Makes sense.

I took this trade because of a bullish to bearish shift on the H4 chart. Because, apparently, according to my prior data, I should only have been executing on the default timeframes. But it doesnt really seem like it matters at this point, because the break of the H4 uptrend didnt shift the daily to bearish. It just kept going higher. 

I have 3 or 4 other trades to journal. And somehow, I chose to complete top and bottom tick of each opposite side on every single fucking trade.

So the only thing that I can come up with at this point, is that if the 12H bar doesnt shift, then I cannot change my bias. 

(Things I did wrong)

- Not waiting for the H12 candle to shift bearish. 

- Did not size correctly, I went in 4 times heavier on the loss, than I did on my last biggest win, this is unacceptable

(Things I did right)

- Basically nothing, didnt even follow my first inital stoploss at the premarket open daily print. But my stoploss was set at the high of the H6 candle, which at that time, was still offering sell side liquidity in between the H4 and H12 candles. 

 

Today was also a very choppy trading session, and I need to know when to sit out, for this reason, I am going to incorporate the TTM squeeze to give me a clear indication on when I should be involved in a trade

(Changes to trading strategy)

- Use H12 trend to decipher daily bias

- Use TTM squeeze to avoid choppy sessions ( had I used TTM on M5 chart today, I could have avoided the chop on all losing trades ) IF ITS RED, NO TRADE

9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bottom VWAP Long, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Low StopLoss, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, Playbook , Pre Market Low Stoploss, Pre Market Open Long, Pre Market Open Reaction,

Trade Of The Day Setup - July 8, 2024

Market Conditions and Setup:

• Difficulty of the Session: Acknowledge that the trading day was tough, with challenges like being stopped out of a prior long.
• Entry Signal: Identified a long entry opportunity around the premarket open (PMO), which coincided with a stop run that turned out to be the low of the day.
• Additional Signals: Utilized an M1 TTM squeeze long signal and a test of the lower VWAP band for entry confirmation.

Learnings and Adjustments:

• Referring Back to Setups: Recognize the value of documenting and referring back to "Trade of the Day" setups for future trading sessions. This approach helps in anticipating similar setups and improving execution.
• Predominant Trend: Reflect on the importance of identifying and following the predominant long bias trend, which was supported by bullish signals from weekly, daily, and H12 charts.
• Strategy Adjustment: Plan to adhere closely to the bullish trend premise in upcoming sessions to potentially capitalize on similar setups.

Moving Forward:

• Learning from Challenges: Take lessons from the tough trading session to refine strategies and improve decision-making.
• Consistency in Approach: Maintain discipline in analyzing and executing trades based on identified setups and trend biases.
• Preparation: Continue using historical setups and market analysis to prepare for future trading opportunities effectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade Of The Day Setup 7/08/2024

Todays trading session was very difficult. I was stopped out of a prior long and that stop run was actually the low around the PMO(premarketopen) where the long of the day entry was provided. I also had other signals like a M1 TTM squeeze long signal, and a test of the lower VWAP band for an entry. So next time this type of trading day/setup is in play, I will use this trade of the day concept to refer back to a likely setup that can play out again in the future. 

I could have figured that the predominant trend would still remain long biased due to the fact that the superior trend remained bullish from the weekly, daily and h12 charts. I have to follow this premise tomorrow so that I can bounce back. 

2 Hour Bar Low Break, 5D Low to 5D High 78.6% Fibonacci, 9 AM Price Action Freeze, Bearish Premarket, D Bearish Structure, D Bearish Trend, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bullish Trailstop, H1 Bullish Trend, H1 TrailStop, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, LOD Stoploss, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, Mo Bullish Structure, Mo Bullish Trend, Wk Bearish Trend, Wk Bullish Structure,

What You Did Well

1. Identified Liquidity and Trend: You correctly identified the draw on liquidity and the bearish trend shift on the 2-hour timeframe.
2. Entry Execution: Entered the trade without emotional involvement once you got the H2 low break confirmation.
3. Risk Management: Set a stop loss at the 2-hour bar high, allowing for some drawdown without getting stopped out prematurely.
4. Trade Patience: Let the trade play out even during drawdown, which is a significant aspect of disciplined trading.
5. Position Sizing: Used the correct position size to manage risk effectively.
6. Market Preparation: Woke up early to get a solid read on the market, showing dedication to your premarket routine.

Areas for Improvement

1. Risk/Reward Optimization: Consider tighter R/R by taking H1 candle low breaks instead of H2. This could provide higher rewards with manageable risk.
2. Trade Management: You could have managed the trade longer using a 2-minute chart/trail stop, potentially increasing your profit.
3. Platform Synchronization: Address the lag between TOS and Tradovate to ensure better trade management.

Key Takeaways

1. Adaptation: While you made a conservative choice to lock in early profit, reviewing this decision helps refine your strategy for future trades.
2. Continuous Improvement: Your self-reflection and journaling demonstrate a commitment to continuous improvement, which is crucial for long-term success.
3. Strategy Refinement: Considering the use of default timeframes only for trading executions can streamline your approach and provide more consistent results.

Action Plan

1. Fine-Tune Entry Strategy: Experiment with H1 candle low breaks for a tighter risk/reward profile. Track and compare results with H2 breaks to determine which works better for your strategy.
2. Improve Trade Management: Implement a trailing stop strategy on the M2 chart for managing trades. Practice this approach in a simulated environment to build confidence.
3. Platform Synchronization: Investigate the lag issue between TOS and Tradovate. Ensure both platforms are synchronized to avoid premature exits or missed opportunities.
4. Review and Reflect: Continue your daily journaling and review sessions. Focus on both successful trades and areas for improvement to refine your strategy continuously.

By implementing these steps, you can enhance your trading strategy, manage risk more effectively, and potentially achieve better results. Keep up the disciplined approach and continuous learning.

 

 

 

I have a photo of the actual trade that I took, but the tags were based on the 'Trade Of The Day' Long Setup

Refer back to this in the future.

 

 

 

 

 

I took this trade at 9:15 in the premarket when I seen the shift in trend on a multi timeframe perspective/with a bearish trend shift on the 2 hour. I figured the draw on liquidity would most likely aim for the daily low(PML) that was created for the 9:30 session. I set my stoploss at the 2 hour bar high to give myself some wiggle room, which turned out to be a good option, because the trade did put me in some drawtime from the time of entry, and had I made my stoploss any tighter, I most likely would have been stopped out. The trade netted me around a 1.3R, which was fine for me, as it was my first trade on this evaluation, and I just wanted to lock in a winning trade nice and early, break the ice for this account, and start the evaluation off on a good note. My plan is to stay consistent with daily journaling and fine tuning the strategy. Being the best trader I can be is about the work done after hours, not during trading session which is only used to execute. As im journaling this trade, I am noticing that there was definitely a strong signal that I couldve held the trade longer, as its continuing to flush lower, but I didnt want to deal with any green to red trades, and I also only had 1 contract. Had I gone in with 2, I likely would still be in the trade as its still continuing to drop.

I could have got better R/R had I taken the candle low break of the H1 candle instead of the H2, but I guess it was just slightly higher confirmation. Although, maybe in the future we will implement default timeframes only for trading executions. Maybe with a bit more data we will make the adjustment, for now, we will stick to all timeframes including custom.

Also, there was a slight lag between by TOS and Tradovate accounts, which also caused me to have to cover the trade earlier than I wanted. Had it been perfectly synched, I likely would have caught a way bigger move by managing the trail stop on the 2 minute chart.

 

 

(THINGS WE COULD HAVE DONE BETTER)

I could have got tighter risk/reward with an H1 bar low break rather than an H2 break. 

I could have stayed in the trade a bit longer by managing the trade on the M2 chart/trailstop

 

(THINGS I DID WELL)

Locating the correct draw on liquidity (Daily PML, 1D and 2D Low, Bearish Trend Shift)

Executing the trade once I got H2 low break confirmation without emotion involved ( I felt a bit hesitant )

Waking up early to get a solid read on the market (7:30 AM)

Letting the trade play out (Not cutting trade early) while in drawdown

Correct sizing (Allowed me to stay in trade & weather the drawdown)