2 Day Anchored VWAP Short, 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short, Daily Bearish Structure, Daily Bearish Trend, H1 TrailStop, H2 TrailStop, M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Playbook , PML Target, Prior Day High Break & Reversal, Trade Of The Day , Week Range, Wk Bullish Structure, Wk Bullish Trend,

Trade Details: July 15, 2024

• Status: No Trade Day (Execution Issues)
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 15, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 2 Day Anchored VWAP Short
  • 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep
  • Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short
  • Daily Bearish Structure
  • Daily Bearish Trend
  • H1 TrailStop
  • H2 TrailStop
  • M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • Playbook
  • PML Target
  • Prior Day High Break & Reversal
  • Trade Of The Day
  • Week Range
  • Wk Bullish Structure
  • Wk Bullish Trend

Notes:

No Trade Day: Executional issues with APEX prevented trade execution. Encountered 'trading temporarily halted' error.

Trade of the Day Setup:

Observations:

• Anchored VWAP Analysis:

  • Analyzed the 2 Day Anchored VWAP during the premarket session.
  • Identified that the prior day high and low were distant.
  • Noted the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided a short signal at the top of the band.

• Daily Chart Analysis:

  • Suggested a draw on liquidity to the prior day low due to the daily candle downtrend.
  • Weekly chart indicated a draw on liquidity to the prior week high because of the weekly uptrend.

Trade Setup:

• Entry:

  • Best timeframe for execution: M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal.
  • Used the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V (or ^).
  • Executed with a sell stop order.
  • Stop loss: Set at the high of the day (HOD).

• Orderblock Rejections:

  • Observed 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections.
  • Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).

Future Strategy Adjustments:

• Execution Timeframe:

  • When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
  • Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.

• Execution Data:

  • More data should suggest the best possible approach.
  • Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.

Mental Trade:

• Mental Long Entry:

  • Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
  • The trade wound up failing.
  • It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.

• Setup Classifications:

  • A Side Setup: Initial move.
  • B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
  • C Setup: To be defined in the future.

---

Action Points:

1. Higher Timeframe Confirmation:

   • Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.

2. Execution Timeframe:

   • Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.

3. Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:

   • If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.

4. Follow Setup Classifications:

   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted' 

But here is the trade of the day setup.

For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band. 

On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.

So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed. 

Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD. 

There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)

So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.

Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.

78.6% Fibonacci Long, ATH failure, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 prior bar low trailstop, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, Playbook , Pre Market Open Untested, Premarket Low to ATH Fibonacci,

Analysis of Trade of the Day Setup

Key Points:

• Fibonacci Level Utilization: Utilized the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from premarket low to ATH failure as a key entry point.
• Intraday Analysis: Anticipated and monitored a retest of the premarket open for potential long opportunities.
• Playbook Addition: Integrated this setup into your playbook for future reference and monitoring.
• M1 Chart Confirmation: Identified buyers at the Fibonacci level on the M1 chart, indicating strong support.
• H12 Chart Trend: Noted a bullish trend on the H12 chart, with trendline confirmation supporting the trade entry.
• Trade Execution: Noted minimal drawdown if the trade was executed on the M1 chart, followed by significant upside for the rest of the day.
• Trailing Stop Strategy: Recognized the potential for a substantial profit (12R) if trailed on the H2 chart, highlighting effective risk management.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Utilization of Fibonacci Levels:

   • Continue to leverage Fibonacci retracement levels for precise entry points and potential support/resistance areas.
   • Monitor reactions at these levels across multiple timeframes (like M1 for short-term signals and H12 for broader trends).

2. Playbook Development:

   • Expand playbook to include setups based on Fibonacci levels and trendline confirmations across various timeframes.
   • Regularly update and refine playbook entries based on market conditions and historical performance.

3. Risk Management:

   • Implement trailing stop strategies effectively, considering both short-term (M1) and longer-term (H2) chart dynamics.
   • Evaluate potential trade scenarios for maximum risk-reward ratios, aiming for high profitability trades like the observed 12R opportunity.

4. Market Context Awareness:

   • Maintain awareness of broader market trends and intraday fluctuations to validate trade setups.
   • Adapt strategies based on real-time market conditions and adjust entries/exits accordingly.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Entry Criteria:

   • Define clear entry criteria based on Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline confirmations, validated across multiple timeframes.

2. Stop Loss and Take Profit:

   • Establish precise levels using strategic points such as Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline breaks, while considering trailing stop strategies.

3. Execution and Management:

   • Execute trades promptly based on defined criteria and playbook strategies, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols.
   • Monitor trade progress and adjust stops or take profits based on real-time market movements.

Conclusion

By integrating these insights into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data and market conditions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy effectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Todays trade of the day setup came from the 78.6% fibonacci level from the premarket low to the ATH failure.

During the day, I was anticipating a retest of the pre market open for longs, but now I will add this trade setup to my playbook and monitor reactions at the 78.6% fibonacci on the M1 chart for buyers.

Had this trade been taken off of the M1 chart, the drawdown would have been virtually nothing before it took of to reach new highs for the rest of the day.

Also, on this trading day, the H12 chart was trending higher, and I set a trendline from each bars low, I noticed that it also provided a trade signal for this exact entry today

once it broke below the trendline, it was in the demand area, and as soon at the M1 chart flipped, the trade took off.

Trailing this trade on the H2 chart would have provided a 12R trade, MASSIVE!

78.6% Fibonacci Long, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bullish Pre Market, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, M1 green bar trail stop, Mean reversion , Mean Reversion Long, Missed Target, Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib, vwap bounce,

Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:

Insights from Your Trade

1. Early Preparation:

   • Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.

2. Utilizing Premarket Analysis:

   • Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.

3. Trade Execution on M1 Chart:

   • Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.

4. Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):

   • Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.

5. Stop Loss Management:

   • Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.

Recommendations for Refinement

1. Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:

   • Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.

2. Partial Profit Taking:

   • Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.

3. Journal and Analyze:

   • Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.

4. Review and Adjust Post-Session:

   • Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.

During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.

Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.

So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.

I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.

Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.

Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points. 

 

(What I Did Right)

- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open

- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket

- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend

 

(What I Did Wrong)

- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early) 

Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven

9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time High Failure, All Time Highs, Bullish Pre Market, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M1 Short, M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Powell, premarket open limit long failure, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Insights and Recommendations:

What You Did Right:

1. Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
3. Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
4. Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
5. Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
6. Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.

What You Can Improve:

1. Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
2. VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
3. Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
4. Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.

Next Steps:

• Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
• Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
• Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
• Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.

Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.

Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.

I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day. 

Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.

 

I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.

ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.

(Things I did right)

- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan

- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH

- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion

- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level

- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade

- Sizing with Open Print Theory

- Trading with a playbook concept

- Following my hard stoplosses

- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.

- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.

- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.

 

Adjustments to strategy

- Potential +2.7 UpperBand & -3.2 lowerband VWAP adjustment

- Potential NO TRADING signal before Jerome Powell

 

9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bottom VWAP Long, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Low StopLoss, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, Playbook , Pre Market Low Stoploss, Pre Market Open Long, Pre Market Open Reaction,

Trade Of The Day Setup - July 8, 2024

Market Conditions and Setup:

• Difficulty of the Session: Acknowledge that the trading day was tough, with challenges like being stopped out of a prior long.
• Entry Signal: Identified a long entry opportunity around the premarket open (PMO), which coincided with a stop run that turned out to be the low of the day.
• Additional Signals: Utilized an M1 TTM squeeze long signal and a test of the lower VWAP band for entry confirmation.

Learnings and Adjustments:

• Referring Back to Setups: Recognize the value of documenting and referring back to "Trade of the Day" setups for future trading sessions. This approach helps in anticipating similar setups and improving execution.
• Predominant Trend: Reflect on the importance of identifying and following the predominant long bias trend, which was supported by bullish signals from weekly, daily, and H12 charts.
• Strategy Adjustment: Plan to adhere closely to the bullish trend premise in upcoming sessions to potentially capitalize on similar setups.

Moving Forward:

• Learning from Challenges: Take lessons from the tough trading session to refine strategies and improve decision-making.
• Consistency in Approach: Maintain discipline in analyzing and executing trades based on identified setups and trend biases.
• Preparation: Continue using historical setups and market analysis to prepare for future trading opportunities effectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trade Of The Day Setup 7/08/2024

Todays trading session was very difficult. I was stopped out of a prior long and that stop run was actually the low around the PMO(premarketopen) where the long of the day entry was provided. I also had other signals like a M1 TTM squeeze long signal, and a test of the lower VWAP band for an entry. So next time this type of trading day/setup is in play, I will use this trade of the day concept to refer back to a likely setup that can play out again in the future. 

I could have figured that the predominant trend would still remain long biased due to the fact that the superior trend remained bullish from the weekly, daily and h12 charts. I have to follow this premise tomorrow so that I can bounce back. 

8:30 DATA, 8:30 Data High Break (M5 Candle Range), H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish to Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation After Data, Playbook , PMH breakout, Premarket Open Retest, Prior ATH Break and Retest,

No Trade Day Notes

Reason for No Trade:

• Due to the 4th of July week and market closing early.
• Noted a correlation between multiple day daily open prints and previous trading losses.

Observations:

• Today's trading setup appeared unmanipulated and straightforward.
• Presented a potential trend day opportunity with:
  • Simple confirmation signals: Data/PMH (Previous Market High)/Multiple trend candle shifts.

Considerations for Future Trades:

• Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
• Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
• Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.

Learnings:

• Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
• Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day.

Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss. 

But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.

It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend.