1D M1 VWAP, 1D M2 VWAP, H12 Bearish LIS, H6 Bearish Trend, Lower DOL, M1 Entry, M2 Entry Loss, Mo Bearish Trend Shift, VWAP Short,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trade of the Day Setup

1. Trend and LIS Analysis:

   • Entered a long trade during a setup that should have been taken in the opposite direction.
   • Misalignment due to the H6 trend not flipping, which is crucial for counter-trend trades into the H12 LIS.
   • The trade would not have been executed if the H6 trend flip was awaited, avoiding the incorrect long entry.

2. Timeframe and Execution:

   • The trade of the day setup played out on the 1D 1M VWAP middle band, suitable for 1-minute and 2-minute chart execution.
   • Chose the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP for the trade based on a prior successful trade at the upper band extremity.
   • Misjudged the lower band extremity as a high possibility for a swing low hold and bounce.

3. Volatility and Price Action:

   • Experienced tricky price action with significant volatility.
   • The draw on liquidity was lower following the monthly trend shift, which should have been factored into the analysis.

Adjustments and Rule Implementations

1. Counter-Trend Trade Rule:

   • New Trading Rule: To execute a counter-trend move into the H12 LIS, the H6 trend must be counter-trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.
   • This rule ensures alignment and avoids premature counter-trend entries.

2. Trend Confirmation:

   • Always wait for trend confirmation on the H6 chart before executing trades against the prevailing H12 trend.
   • This confirmation helps in avoiding trades that go against the overall market direction.

3. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Execute trades on appropriate timeframes that align with the identified setup (e.g., 1D 1M VWAP middle band for 1-minute and 2-minute charts).
   • Avoid using custom or less relevant timeframes that could lead to misalignment and increased risk.

4. Price Action and Volatility Consideration:

   • Factor in recent trend shifts and the potential impact on price action and liquidity draws.
   • Stay cautious of tricky price action and avoid making trades based on assumptions without confirmation.

Summary of Adjustments and New Rules

1. New Trading Rule:

   • For counter-trend trades into the H12 LIS, the H6 trend must be counter-trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.

2. Trend Confirmation:

   • Wait for H6 trend confirmation before taking trades against the prevailing H12 trend.

3. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Use the appropriate timeframes for trade execution based on the identified setup.
   • Avoid relying on custom or less relevant timeframes.

4. Price Action Awareness:

   • Be aware of recent trend shifts and their impact on liquidity and price action.
   • Exercise caution in volatile markets and avoid trades based on unconfirmed assumptions.

By implementing these adjustments and rules, you can improve your trading accuracy, avoid misaligned trades, and enhance your overall trading performance.

 

 

 

 

Today we took a long at the exact moment this 'Trade Of The Day' Setup played out. So i got in the wrong direction at the exact moment I should of went the other way.

The reasons I think I got this trade wrong, was mainly because, the H6 trend never flipped, which seems to me now, to be a major factor with my H12 LIS thesis.

***NEW TRADING RULE***

In order to play a counter trend move into the H12 LIS, going against the prevailing directional bias as we state in our 'Line In The Sand', the H6 trend must be counter trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I believe if I had waited for the H6 trend to flip, it would have kept me out of the long side trade, because the long order would have never got filled, and I could have located the counter direction move and looked for levels and opportunites according to it. 

The trade panned out on the 1D 1M VWAP middleband. And the trade could have been executed on both a 1 minute & 2 minute chart.

I executed the trade on a 5D 5M WEEK VWAP, because the prior day, I had an amazing trade that came from the upperband extremity, and today we were trading the lowerband extremity, and I thought there was a high possibility that the swing low would hold, and that we would bounce. It was very tricky price action. 

And the draw on liquidity was lower after the monthly trend shifted. 

4D 5M WEEK VWAP Upperband Extremity, H1 Bearish Orderblock, H1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, H6 Bearish Trend, LIS Target (Bearish), Lower DOL, M5 Bearish Confirmation Close , M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Positioned Shorts Key Level,

For some reason, this journal isnt letting me manually tag the trading patterns for todays setup, so I will type them below vvv

(PATTERNS)

- 4D 5M WEEK VWAP Upperband Extremity

- M5 Bearish Confirmation Close Level Marked for 'Positioned Shorts)

- M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation Price Action (REACTION) at key level of interest (Same Timeframe)

- Bearish Tape on Time & Sales at key level (Above 10 contracts)

- Overnight H1 Bearish Orderblock & H1 Price Action REACTION response, validating the M5 Bearish Confirmation Close Level

- Weak Pre Market Low

- Lower Draw On Liquidity

- H6 Premarket Bearish Trend Shift

- Trend Below 1D VWAP Lowerband

 

 

Trade Analysis and Summary:

Key Points from the Notes:

• Pre-Market Analysis:

  • Woke up early: Ensured readiness before key data drops.
  • Mixed overnight session: Close to an H1 Order Block (ODB) level but not fully tapped.
  • H12 Uptrend: The Level of Interest (LIS) sits at 19344.25.
  • New monthly candle: Opens with a slightly bullish trend from the previous month.
  • Sell signal on WEEK VWAP Upper Band: Noted potential short opportunity if the signal holds.

• New Trading Rule:

  • If a setup goes past the level of interest, the trade is invalidated.

• Data Drop (Jobless Claims):

  • Bearish interpretation due to increased jobless claims.

• Main Trade Idea:

  • Sweep of the PMH into an untapped M30 Bearish Order Block, aligning with WEEK VWAP Upper Band.
  • H12 LIS: Awareness that the trade idea goes against the H12 LIS but aligns with the H6 bearish trend.

• Trading Execution:

  • Gut feeling: Bears in control due to trading below the overnight mean.
  • First trade: Stopped out but identified manipulation and re-entered with confirmation.
  • Second trade: Successful entry with confirmation of A-side setup and multiple confluences.
  • Result: Ended with a P/L of $419.

Analysis:

1. Pre-Market Preparation:

   • Thorough preparation by analyzing multiple timeframes and potential trade setups.
   • Clear identification of key levels and order blocks.
   • Integration of a new trading rule to avoid invalid trades.

2. Data Interpretation:

   • Correctly interpreted jobless claims data as bearish, influencing the decision to lean towards short trades.

3. Trade Execution:

   • First Trade: Identified manipulation and quickly adapted by re-entering with a better setup.
   • Second Trade: Followed all criteria for an A+ trade, including confirmation on the same timeframe and trailing the trade to lock in profits.

4. Risk Management:

   • Effective use of stop losses based on recent swing highs.
   • Managed to keep losses minimal on the first trade and maximize gains on the second.

5. Outcome and Reflection:

   • Overall successful trading day with a solid profit.
   • Identified the reasons for success, including proper analysis, following the new rule, and waiting for confirmations.

Conclusion:

Combining the Data Drops:

• Jobless Claims: Bearish due to higher-than-expected claims, indicating potential labor market weakness.
• Productivity and Costs: Bullish due to significant productivity gains and lower unit labor costs, indicating economic strength and controlled inflation.

Net Outlook:

• Despite the bearish jobless claims data, the productivity and costs data provide a stronger positive outlook. This suggests an overall bullish sentiment, particularly in terms of economic growth and inflation control.

Trade Reflection:

• The successful trade execution against the H12 LIS worked due to multiple confluences and adherence to the new rule.
• This trade likely represented the "Trade of the Day" due to its alignment with identified setups and successful execution.

By combining thorough pre-market analysis, disciplined execution, and effective risk management, you were able to capitalize on the day's trading opportunities successfully.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8:06 AM. Woke up early this morning. We have some data dropping in a half hour, also 9:45 & 10AM data as well. The overnight is mixed. Coming a few ticks away from an H1 ODB I market out yesterday, and never came back to tag it. I would prefer if the level was actually hit to play it. Sometime I feel like when levels are barely touched like that, they can act as manipulations to play the opposite way. So if Im going to contemplate going short OTD, I think it will be best for the current PMH (which is ticks away from the first H1 ODB) & of many other bearish ODB's, to be swept so that the liquidity can first be cleared.

We are also in an H12 uptrend, and the LIS currently sits at 19344.25. Because of the other days new rule implementation, I began drawing uptapped supply and demand levels near the LIS. And the only one that remains at this moment, is an untapped M1 demand area right above the LIS. 

This is also the first day of a new month. August 1st, so the new monthly candle opens today, and the prior month was able to maintain a slightly bullish trend, with a higher high and higher low. Also, holding at the untapped Month Bullish Orderblock, which lined up in confluence with the 90D low to high 61.8% fibonacci. 

On the 4D 5 Minute chart, WEEK VWAP. It is currently giving us a sell signal at the top of the range and Upper Band. Theres a chance that the sell signal has already been first because the 4D 5Minute chart Upperband has been sold into and closed below. Prior to a slight trend above. But the trade idea I like most at the moment is a sweep of the PMH, to tap into the untested bearish orderblocks, and wait for the timeframe confirmation & reaction.

***** NEW RULE *****

If the A side of a setup & reaction of a trade, goes past the level of interest from the highest high, or lowest low (depending on if its a short trade or long trade) than the setup is invalidated. 

For example; If Im looking for a short trade at a key level, and that specific level requires an H1 entry confirmation & reaction, but the H1 chart continues trending higher, past the key level of interest, if an H1 bar is created with low that is ABOVE the key level of interest, than the trade is invalidated. The H1 low MUST maintain below the key level of interest, to signal a price action response that there is actual selling pressure stepping in to keep the bar below the level. And if the bullish to bearish variation takes place, creating an A side setup, on the right side of the ^, than that is multiple confirmations for a trading entry. 

8:43 AM: The 8:30 DATA drop (JOBLESS CLAIMS) just came out, with an increase in the overall number of jobless claims, which is a bearish interpretation. 

8:54AM. The main trade that I am looking for OTD is a sweep of the PMH, into the untapped M30 Bearish Orderblock, which would be in confluence with an overextending on the 4D 5Minute WEEK VWAP Upperband. The only thing is this thesis goes against the H12 LIS, but the H6 trend has shifted bearish, so I think there is a chance that this can come back to test the LIS.

My gut is telling me that long side plays wont be as easy or feasible OTD, as we are currently trading below the mean of the overnight. Which is currently telling me that bears are in control. 

11:12AM. Wonderful, amazing trading day. I ended the day with a total P/L of $419 dollars. As I stated just before this, I had a gut feeling that shorts would play out OTD. It seems that the early 9:30 shorts got too eager, and were squeezed at the PML, although the alert was never triggered below the PML. 

When I looked at the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP, I noticed that during the overnight session, we were trading above the VWAP Upperband, suggesting an Overextenstion/Extremity to the upside from yesterdays move. So I decided to market the 'Overnight Short Close M5' level, as it was the first level to close below the Upperband, suggesting that would have been an ideal short entry from the overnight, and also suggesting that shorts were positioned at that exact level of 19631.75. Because of this, I took my time at the opening, simply getting a feel for price action, by marking alerts as the price action developed, from the trend analysis perspective, and draw on liquidity perspective. 

I saw at the start of the trading session that the 1D VWAP could have played against the 4D M5 VWAP, because we were trading towards the lowerband, but I took the birds eye view & larger timeframe analysis, and gave it more weight. 

The first trade I entered, was stopped out, it felt a bit manipulated, but it cleared the gap to the M5 bearish orderblock that was created from the confirmation move, instead of the confirmation close level, so with a micro mistake, I was stopped out of the first trade, but got in a second time, when the A side setup was still presented at that level, with M5 lows holding below the key level, and getting a bullish to bearish variation A side setup, as my new rule suggests. Stops at the most recent swing high prior to the move, and I took it to the next draw on liquidity which was the M1 demand created off of the LIS.

Today, trading against the LIS happened to work. It was a counter trend trade before the full confirmation, but thats because I had multiple confluence confirmations to trade against it, and back to the daily mean. 

11:25AM. As it currently stands, but LIS was broken, creating a technical downtrend unless proven otherwise. 

 

***Overall***

The reasons why this trade worked

- I Identified a macro extremity on the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP

- I saw overnight confirmation of a break and close below the VWAP Upperband

- I marked the close of the M5 candle, in the same timeframe used to spot the trade, as where 'shorts are positioned'

- I waited for the A side setup, and price action confirmation on the same timeframe used to spot the trade

- I followed the trend and indentified the likely area for price to reach towards, whcih was the H12 LIS in confluence with the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP middleband

- Trailed the trade on the same timeframe I entered 'M5" to lock in profits incase of a reversal (which didnt happen)

- Let it hit my take profit

All of this meets the criteria for an A+ trade, and I think I likely hit the 'Trade Of The Day' setup. We will know by the end of the day. 

 

2:14PM. I just noticed, todays win was a major adaptation to the $600 loss from the other day. It wasnt the exact same setup, in terms of opening between the middle and upper VWAP band, but it was a fake break higher with a nasty short opportunity off of a bearish orderblock. Money trades today baby.

9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down, All Time High Failure, All Time Highs, Bullish Pre Market, Failure on 2nd ATH, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M1 Short, M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Powell, premarket open limit long failure, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Insights and Recommendations:

What You Did Right:

1. Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
2. Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
3. Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
4. Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
5. Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
6. Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.

What You Can Improve:

1. Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
2. VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
3. Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
4. Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.

Next Steps:

• Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
• Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
• Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
• Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.

Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.

Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.

I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day. 

Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.

 

I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.

ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.

(Things I did right)

- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan

- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH

- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion

- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level

- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade

- Sizing with Open Print Theory

- Trading with a playbook concept

- Following my hard stoplosses

- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.

- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.

- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.

 

Adjustments to strategy

- Potential +2.7 UpperBand & -3.2 lowerband VWAP adjustment

- Potential NO TRADING signal before Jerome Powell

 

8:30 DATA, 8:30 Data High Break (M5 Candle Range), H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish to Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation After Data, Playbook , PMH breakout, Premarket Open Retest, Prior ATH Break and Retest,

No Trade Day Notes

Reason for No Trade:

• Due to the 4th of July week and market closing early.
• Noted a correlation between multiple day daily open prints and previous trading losses.

Observations:

• Today's trading setup appeared unmanipulated and straightforward.
• Presented a potential trend day opportunity with:
  • Simple confirmation signals: Data/PMH (Previous Market High)/Multiple trend candle shifts.

Considerations for Future Trades:

• Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
• Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
• Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.

Learnings:

• Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
• Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day.

Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss. 

But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.

It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend. 

Bearish Premarket, Bottom VWAP Long, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Trail Stop, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish to Bullish Trend , H4 Bearish Trend, H6 Bearish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Low Hold, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bearish to Bullish Variation PML, Support Turned Resistance Fakeout, Turtle Soup, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

What You Did Well

1. Line in the Sand Identification: Successfully identified the critical price level, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance.'
2. Adapting to Market Conditions: After being stopped out, you were able to pivot and take a trade in the opposite direction, showing flexibility.
3. Stop Loss Management: Properly placed and adhered to stop losses, maintaining discipline in risk management.
4. Recognizing Trade Signals: Understanding the importance of the initial trend shift (A side setup) and how subsequent retests (B, C, etc.) weaken the setup.

Areas for Improvement

1. Morning Routine: Waking up past your alarm again is a recurring issue. This needs to be addressed to ensure you're prepared for the trading day.
2. Entry Quality: Took low probability trades away from desired entry points, which led to unnecessary losses.
3. Position Sizing: Took on too heavy of a contract size, going against your position size calculator recommendations.
4. Trade Execution: Placing a limit order short against session open volume instead of using a buy stop to flip the trade thesis was a mistake.
5. Trade Management: Covered the trade too early, missing out on potential profits. Could have managed the trade better by taking off partial positions and leaving runners.
6. Data Awareness: Not marking data drops on candles led to misinterpretations of market movements.

Key Takeaways

1. Default Timeframe Execution: The distinction between H4, H6, and H12 trends shows the need for a clear execution model. Default timeframes seem to offer better clarity for entries.
2. Trend Confirmation: The initial trend break (A setup) is stronger, and retests (B, C, etc.) become progressively weaker. This insight should guide your trade selections.
3. Data Marking: Marking data drops on candles is crucial to understand market reactions and avoid misinterpreting moves.

Action Plan

1. Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:

   • Improve your alarm setup, possibly using multiple alarms or a more disruptive alarm system to ensure you wake up on time.
   • Ensure you're getting adequate rest to avoid oversleeping.

2. Refine Entry Strategy:

   • Stick to high probability entries near desired levels.
   • Use buy/sell stops to enter trades rather than limit orders against session volume.

3. Position Sizing Discipline:

   • Strictly adhere to the position size calculator to avoid taking on excessive risk.
   • If a trade requires a heavier size, ensure it's justified by a higher probability setup.

4. Data Awareness:

   • Mark data release times on your charts to anticipate potential market reactions.
   • Adjust your strategy based on these data points to avoid getting caught in unexpected moves.

Example Day Plan

1. Morning Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release, preferably 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform your premarket analysis, marking key data release times on your charts.

2. Market Analysis:

   • Identify the prevailing trend using H4 and H6 for precise entries, while using H12 for overall market context.
   • Focus on A side setups for higher probability trades.

3. Trading Session:

   • Execute trades based on high probability entries near desired levels, using buy/sell stops.
   • Adhere to position size limits and manage trades by taking partial profits and leaving runners.

By addressing these areas for improvement and refining your strategy based on these insights, you'll enhance your trading performance and maintain discipline. Keep up the diligent journaling and continuous refinement of your approach.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I ended up breakeven on the day with 3 loser and 1 winner. I did many things wrong today.

(THINGS DONE WRONG)

1. Waking up past my alarm again. Unnaceptable

2. Taking 2 low probability first trades that were away from my desired entry. 

3. Taking too heavy of contract size according to my position size calculator

4. Putting a limit order short at the potential support turned resistance against session open volume, when could have placed a buy stop and flipped my trade thesis

5. Covering the trade far too early, just to break even on the day. I could have taken off 2 contracts of the 3 I had, and left 1 runner.

6. Taking 2 irrelevant trades.

7. Not marking the DATA drops on candles.

 

TELLS that trade would flip

- According to Lance B, the A side of each trade setup is upon the inital trend shift, with each retest become less and less strong of a setup. SO, the initial trend break would be considered the 'A' setup, the break and retest would be considered the 'B' setup, and any retests after that would become C/D etc.

- Upon this initial bearish trend shift on the H4 and H6 charts, The H12, Daily, Weekly ETC still had bullish trending higher lows and higher higher on their candles, my thought process was that, because the H4 and H6 candles shifted bearish, there would be a chance that we can trade into the prior 12 hour low as that would be the bearish draw on liquidity from the H6 bearish trend shift. 

- ALSO, I had made the destinction that it would likely have been smarter to implement a 'Default Timeframe' execution model, which means that the H4 trend shift should have provided a daily low draw on liquidity for bears, but because the prior H12 low was never retested for a bearish draw on liquidity, that means that it was a significant contributing factor for todays bullish continuation to the upside. The best thing to do will be to track data on this, and adjust as we go along, because although yesterday the H12 trend happened later in the session, with lower R/R return from the point of entry, it still ended up higher than where the initial entry trigger suggest, closing higher than the point of entry on the day. SO, while it may not provide the best R/R potential from the point of confirmation, it still may insist on a higher probability in terms of directional bias. 

This H4 low break and trap also took place yesterday (July 2nd 2024) and had the exact same setup, which is most regarded as the 'Turtle Soup' Setup or a 'Potential Support Turned Resistance', The only difference was that yesterday was an H12 potential bearish trend shift, and that meant it could have swept the prior daily low as a liquidity draw. 

Its also very clear that upon the 9:30 session open, the DATA released at 8:15 & 8:30 had been immediately reversed and bought up, so I think it will be beneficial to mark out these data drops on the candle OPEN in the future

(THINGS I DID RIGHT)

- Properly identifying where the 'line in the sand' was OTD, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance'

- Cutting the limit order I had short at the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance' at the correct stoploss of the H6 candle high at that time. 

- Taking a trade in the other direction from which I was initially stopped out of

- Placing the correct stoploss on the trade at the 'Line in the sand' OTD on the 2nd trade and sticking to it.

 

BOTTOM LINE, that line in the sand was the most likely price to be tested upon session open BECAUSE, it would have been the best area for shorts to stab at the trade for a continuation through the lows, and confirmation if broken and held above the the longs.

SO IN THE FUTURE, 'Define the A SIDE SETUP, for the LINE IN THE SAND, on each days trading session

If we took the correct play on todays trading session, we could have profited almost $300 and avoided 2 pointless losses.

 

 

9:30 DATA, Bearish Premarket, Bullish Trend Shift, Data Release, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Candle High Break, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bearish Trend, H2 prior bar low trailstop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish Trend, H4 Candle High Break, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, Inflation Data, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, Mo Bullish Structure, Mo Bullish Trend, Playbook , Prior Day Long Level, Trade Of The Day , Wk Bearish Trend, Wk Bullish Structure,

What You Did Well

1. Self-Discipline: Opting not to trade after waking up late shows strong self-discipline. Recognizing when you're not in the best state to trade can prevent unnecessary losses.
2. Reflection: You took the time to analyze the missed opportunity and drew valuable insights from it.
3. Strategy Insight: Identified that default timeframes provided a better R/R trading opportunity compared to custom timeframes.

Areas for Improvement

1. Morning Routine: Waking up on time is crucial, especially on days with significant data releases. Ensure your alarm setup is reliable and consider setting multiple alarms if necessary.

Key Takeaways

1. Adaptability: Understanding that default timeframes may offer better R/R opportunities is valuable. Adjusting your strategy to capitalize on these insights will enhance your trading performance.
2. Trend Confirmation: Recognizing the importance of H4 timeframe in play while also understanding the role of H6 and H12 for overall market context shows your growing analytical skills.

Action Plan

1. Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:

   • Set multiple alarms and place your alarm device at a distance to ensure you wake up on time.
   • Consider going to bed earlier on trading days with important data releases.

2. Default Timeframe Focus:

   • Shift your focus to executing trades on default timeframes for better R/R.
   • Use H6 and H12 timeframes for overall market context and direction but prioritize H1 and H4 for entry points.

3. Consistent Review:

   • Continue to review and analyze missed opportunities. This helps you stay prepared for future similar scenarios.
   • Keep refining your strategy based on these insights.

Example Day Plan

1. Morning Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release (preferably 2 hours before market open).
   • Perform your premarket analysis, focusing on default timeframes.

2. Market Analysis:

   • Identify the prevailing trend using H6 and H12 for market context.
   • Look for high R/R opportunities using H1 and H4 for precise entries.

3. Trading Session:

   • Execute trades based on your refined strategy, prioritizing default timeframes.
   • Avoid trading if you miss your morning routine to maintain discipline.

By incorporating these insights and adjustments, you can enhance your trading performance and stay disciplined in your approach. Keep up the good work with your journaling and continuous improvement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NO TRADE DAY for me.

I woke up at 10:45, slept past my alarm, and I dont think Im going to take any trades on the day, because I missed the best opportunity.

Instead, I will post a picture of the long opportunity presented OTD, that happened just prior to the 9:30 data release on inflation

This trade was basically immediately ITM and experienced almost no drawdown upon entry. 

 

THINGS DONE WRONG

- Woke up late (Should be up at least 1 hour in the future prior to data releases)

THINGS DONE CORRECT

- Deciding not to take any trades on the day after waking up late

 

One thing that I noticed on this trade is that the default timeframes provided a higher R/R trading opportunity compared to my custom timeframes in terms on trend.

The H4 timeframe was the timeframe in play, and had I waited for H6 and H12 confirmation, I would have got a significantly lower R/R for the trade.

With that being said, I think that H6 & H12 can be used in specific scenarios for overall market context and direction, but I am starting to think that once I have reference from the H6 & H12 charts, to look for the lowest timeframe entries for the draw on liquidity.

I am really enjoying this candle high/candle low & trend trading strategy, its very simple, and seems to be performing well conceptually.

 

STRATEGY TWEEKS 

* ENTRIES WILL ONLY BE PERFORMED ON DEFAULT TIMEFRAMES TO CAPTURE BIGGER R/R TRADES.

 

 

2 Hour Bar Low Break, 5D Low to 5D High 78.6% Fibonacci, 9 AM Price Action Freeze, Bearish Premarket, D Bearish Structure, D Bearish Trend, H1 Bearish Structure, H1 Bullish Trailstop, H1 Bullish Trend, H1 TrailStop, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H2 Bearish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bearish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bearish Trend, LOD Stoploss, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, Mo Bullish Structure, Mo Bullish Trend, Wk Bearish Trend, Wk Bullish Structure,

What You Did Well

1. Identified Liquidity and Trend: You correctly identified the draw on liquidity and the bearish trend shift on the 2-hour timeframe.
2. Entry Execution: Entered the trade without emotional involvement once you got the H2 low break confirmation.
3. Risk Management: Set a stop loss at the 2-hour bar high, allowing for some drawdown without getting stopped out prematurely.
4. Trade Patience: Let the trade play out even during drawdown, which is a significant aspect of disciplined trading.
5. Position Sizing: Used the correct position size to manage risk effectively.
6. Market Preparation: Woke up early to get a solid read on the market, showing dedication to your premarket routine.

Areas for Improvement

1. Risk/Reward Optimization: Consider tighter R/R by taking H1 candle low breaks instead of H2. This could provide higher rewards with manageable risk.
2. Trade Management: You could have managed the trade longer using a 2-minute chart/trail stop, potentially increasing your profit.
3. Platform Synchronization: Address the lag between TOS and Tradovate to ensure better trade management.

Key Takeaways

1. Adaptation: While you made a conservative choice to lock in early profit, reviewing this decision helps refine your strategy for future trades.
2. Continuous Improvement: Your self-reflection and journaling demonstrate a commitment to continuous improvement, which is crucial for long-term success.
3. Strategy Refinement: Considering the use of default timeframes only for trading executions can streamline your approach and provide more consistent results.

Action Plan

1. Fine-Tune Entry Strategy: Experiment with H1 candle low breaks for a tighter risk/reward profile. Track and compare results with H2 breaks to determine which works better for your strategy.
2. Improve Trade Management: Implement a trailing stop strategy on the M2 chart for managing trades. Practice this approach in a simulated environment to build confidence.
3. Platform Synchronization: Investigate the lag issue between TOS and Tradovate. Ensure both platforms are synchronized to avoid premature exits or missed opportunities.
4. Review and Reflect: Continue your daily journaling and review sessions. Focus on both successful trades and areas for improvement to refine your strategy continuously.

By implementing these steps, you can enhance your trading strategy, manage risk more effectively, and potentially achieve better results. Keep up the disciplined approach and continuous learning.

 

 

 

I have a photo of the actual trade that I took, but the tags were based on the 'Trade Of The Day' Long Setup

Refer back to this in the future.

 

 

 

 

 

I took this trade at 9:15 in the premarket when I seen the shift in trend on a multi timeframe perspective/with a bearish trend shift on the 2 hour. I figured the draw on liquidity would most likely aim for the daily low(PML) that was created for the 9:30 session. I set my stoploss at the 2 hour bar high to give myself some wiggle room, which turned out to be a good option, because the trade did put me in some drawtime from the time of entry, and had I made my stoploss any tighter, I most likely would have been stopped out. The trade netted me around a 1.3R, which was fine for me, as it was my first trade on this evaluation, and I just wanted to lock in a winning trade nice and early, break the ice for this account, and start the evaluation off on a good note. My plan is to stay consistent with daily journaling and fine tuning the strategy. Being the best trader I can be is about the work done after hours, not during trading session which is only used to execute. As im journaling this trade, I am noticing that there was definitely a strong signal that I couldve held the trade longer, as its continuing to flush lower, but I didnt want to deal with any green to red trades, and I also only had 1 contract. Had I gone in with 2, I likely would still be in the trade as its still continuing to drop.

I could have got better R/R had I taken the candle low break of the H1 candle instead of the H2, but I guess it was just slightly higher confirmation. Although, maybe in the future we will implement default timeframes only for trading executions. Maybe with a bit more data we will make the adjustment, for now, we will stick to all timeframes including custom.

Also, there was a slight lag between by TOS and Tradovate accounts, which also caused me to have to cover the trade earlier than I wanted. Had it been perfectly synched, I likely would have caught a way bigger move by managing the trail stop on the 2 minute chart.

 

 

(THINGS WE COULD HAVE DONE BETTER)

I could have got tighter risk/reward with an H1 bar low break rather than an H2 break. 

I could have stayed in the trade a bit longer by managing the trade on the M2 chart/trailstop

 

(THINGS I DID WELL)

Locating the correct draw on liquidity (Daily PML, 1D and 2D Low, Bearish Trend Shift)

Executing the trade once I got H2 low break confirmation without emotion involved ( I felt a bit hesitant )

Waking up early to get a solid read on the market (7:30 AM)

Letting the trade play out (Not cutting trade early) while in drawdown

Correct sizing (Allowed me to stay in trade & weather the drawdown)