1M Variation Entry, D Reverse Bearish Orderblock Target, LIS (Bearish), OBD VWAP LONG,

1. Shift in Market Behavior (Easy Setups Failing):

• Your previously reliable "easy money" setups have consistently failed at the start of the month.
• This suggests that market conditions have shifted, and the strategies that worked during your evaluation are no longer as effective.
• You have recognized that VWAP signals (your most trusted indicator) have been leading to false entries, which has contributed to losses and breakeven trades.

2. Struggle with VWAP Effectiveness:

• You relied on VWAP for both long and short signals, but it has produced fakeouts in both directions, leading to stop-outs or breakeven trades.
• Trades that would have worked partially never hit their price targets, and profits you had were lost as the market reversed.
• This led you to take many small losses (“papercuts”), and miss out on potentially larger wins.

3. Desire to Simplify with Non-Moving Levels:

• You’re feeling conflicted about continuing with VWAP due to its recent unreliability.
• You want to shift to solid, non-moving levels for trading, rather than relying on a moving indicator like VWAP.
• You have started to focus on orderblock displacements and support/resistance levels drawn from swing highs and lows.

4. Introduction of a New Orderblock VWAP System:

• You developed a new strategy that combines orderblocks with VWAP to create static ranges based on significant price levels.
• While this system is still in the testing phase, it helped you achieve a $250 win, breaking your recent losing streak.
• You have observed a potential for higher reward setups using this system (such as a missed 5R trade).

5. Trading Within Larger Timeframe Moves:

• You’ve realized that 1-minute and 5-minute charts create a lot of noise, which makes it difficult to hold trades when the bias is constantly shifting.
• You’ve identified that you are likely engaging with short-term price noise rather than focusing on critical support and resistance from higher timeframes (daily, weekly).
• You have started to understand the importance of multi-timeframe analysis and how larger timeframes create wider ranges in which the market operates.

6. Developing Confidence in New Strategy:

• Lack of confidence in your new system caused you to miss a potential high-probability trade, which would have made a big difference in your performance.
• After seeing success with the strategy, you plan to continue implementing and refining this orderblock VWAP system.
• You are committed to gathering data and understanding the market’s true ranges to avoid trading in the noise of lower timeframes.

7. Adjusting to New Market Conditions:

• You recognize that the market has shifted, and you need to adapt by finding more reliable and consistent setups that account for larger timeframe moves.
• You plan to track the performance of your newly developed strategy and analyze how it performs in the current environment.

---

Key Focus for the Week:

Your focus should be on gathering data and refining your orderblock-based strategy, which aims to simplify your trading around clear, non-moving support and resistance areas. You are starting to see success with this approach, and continuing to develop confidence in this system should be your priority. Make sure you:

• Track data on how your support and resistance levels perform.
• Hold trades longer based on higher timeframe ranges and avoid reacting to short-term noise on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts.
• Prioritize discipline by sticking to well-defined areas and focusing on the highest-probability setups.

Advice on How to Proceed:

1. Continue Implementing the New Strategy: Stick with the new orderblock-based approach while minimizing your reliance on VWAP. Focus on higher timeframe levels and build confidence in the system by tracking data.

2. Emphasize Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Make sure you are analyzing the daily, weekly, and multi-day trends. These larger timeframes will help you avoid getting caught in the short-term volatility and "noise" of lower timeframes.

3. Be Selective with Setups: With your account in a drawdown, you need to limit risk and maximize rewards. Only take trades at the most critical support and resistance areas identified from your higher timeframe analysis.

4. Risk Management: Keep your drawdown situation in mind. Limit the size of your stop losses, and make sure each trade has a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (at least 2:1).

By focusing on this new, simplified approach and avoiding reactive trades in the lower timeframes, you can regain confidence and gradually recover from the drawdown while minimizing risk.

 

 

 

 

Today was the first win in a few day, from the start of a terrible month and the beginning of yet another funded account.

Because my drawdown had became more diminished than I would have wanted, I really had to other choice other than to seriously hone down on the most important support and resistance areas that I could find.

One thing I have been noticing is that from the turn of the month, my 'easy money' setups have been failing consistenly. 

Over and over again.

So I had become conflicted, with my daily base hit trades, that I believe helped me pass with flying colors during my evaluation stage.

In the beginning of the month, I was faked out by the bottom VWAP band for a long. Than during the remainder of the week, I was getting false signals at the top VWAP bands for a short. And although sometimes they would work, during the entire week, they would never fill the entire range of the VWAP to hit my price targets, so on top of the numerous papercuts I was taking on trades, for the ones I was in profit, would come back to tag me out at breakeven, and for this reason I left a surreal amount of profit on the table as well.

So one thing seemed certain for this month, my VWAP was failing, and giving me false signals, and this had been my most reliable indicator, and the only one I use.

Upon implementing VWAP, I have really tried to gauge a possible way to replace the VWAP, with something that was purely price action based, so that I can simplify my trading.

And I really like the idea of solid, non moving levels. And although the VWAP has beenvery reliable, it does move.

This prompted me to create a range that was based on the orderblock displacements from above and below, fine tuning the orderblocks from the most critical swing high and swing lows from the resistance and support area that I can locate, with an extremity in price, and untapped liquidity. 

I dont yet have much data to support this new orderblock VWAP system, but I can say, that it did today help me get a win, and break this negative cycle that I have been trading in. 

I actually had a resistance area from yesterday that triggered in the overnight, but because of the lack of confidence, and the lack of data, I watched the high probability setup pass me by on the /MNQ, and I would assume it was at least a 5R trade, and likely could have made up all of my trading losses thus far.

So, I decided to take the exact same setup that was presented yesterday in the overnight session, with a 1 minute variation, and I locked in a $250 winner.

So for now, I will continue to implement this system, since I am still in a critical drawdown that I have to recover from. And Im hoping I will be able to develop and consistently implement this theory so that I can truthfully understand the true ranges that the market is trading in.

One thing that I have noticed, is that upon multiple trend shifts on the daily, 2 day, 3 day, 4 day and weekly candles, I have learned about price imbalances and retracements of the candle prior to the contrary candle for a deeper entry, and now, the implementation of wider ranges that the market can tend to trade in, when these larger timeframes are in play.

It has been extremely difficult to hold trades in this market, with the 1 minute, and 5 minute charts shifting bias over and over again througout the trading session, and because of this, it suggests that I am trading within a way larger timeframe move and range, and engaging with price action in area with noise, rather than critical support and resistance areas. 

So I will let this trading session pan out and see what happens, and if my support and resistance areas hold true, to start tracking the data on this theory. 

3D Bearish Trend Shift 50% , 9:30 Short, Balanced Price Acceptance Moving Average , LIS (Bearish), LIS Reversal, Lowerband to Upperband Fail, M15 Confirmation for 3D 50% Fib Retracement Setup, New Month Candle, New Quarter Candle, pre market low dropout, Reset of VWAP Settings,

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Loss Management & Position Sizing:

• You lost twice the daily loss limit, which means you need to reduce risk. You will not trade tomorrow, and you're restricted to one contract until you recover the $500 drawdown.

2. VWAP Settings Error:

• The new monthly candle open reset your VWAP settings, leading to false signals, which caused significant losses. This was a crucial mistake that you recognize as preventable.
• Solution: You must never trust VWAP settings on a new monthly or quarterly candle open without marking prior month's key levels to avoid misreads in the future.

3. Bias and Executional Errors:

• You entered the session with a neutral bias but ignored key technical analysis cues (buy/sell ovals) that could have clarified market direction earlier. Waiting for these signals to break would have helped avoid losses.
• Trading based on a Turtle Soup setup at the premarket low, instead of recognizing the larger liquidity drawdown happening, also resulted in a significant loss.

4. Discipline & Emotional Impact:

• You let previous trades (where support repeatedly held) influence your decision-making, which affected your objectivity when entering today's trades.
• Trading while tired (from staying up for the overnight session the day before) likely impaired your ability to react properly to the session's setups.

5. Failure to Adhere to Key Rules:

• You didn’t wait until 10 AM to trade, violating your own rule, which would have likely reduced losses.
• Not following through on your rule to consult the 5-minute chart when VWAP settings reset also led to multiple smaller losses (on the 1-minute chart) that compounded into a bigger loss.

6. Pre-Market Observations:

• Pre-market price action suggested the overnight low break should have been seen as a signal for the bearish move, not a liquidity sweep opportunity. Missing this transition from range-bound to trending structure was a key mistake.
• The 9:30 AM move, which occurred before the expected data release, was unusual and caught you off guard, but this underscores the importance of adhering to your predefined levels and biases, regardless of timing.

7. Execution Issues:

• Slippage and rejected orders during the data release added to your losses, with an extra $50-$80 incurred unnecessarily.

8. Lesson for Future Monthly/Quarterly Openings:

• Plan ahead by marking upper and lower bands from the prior month’s price action before a new monthly or quarterly candle opens. This will give you a better gauge of where price action is heading, rather than relying on fresh VWAP indicators alone.

9. Improved Use of Timeframes:

• The importance of incorporating higher timeframes (5-minute chart or higher) during new month VWAP resets is emphasized. This would have resulted in fewer trades and reduced losses.

10. Actionable Adjustments:

• You must ensure that similar execution errors and misinterpretations don't happen again. This includes sticking to your trading rules, adjusting VWAP settings, and being more disciplined about your execution around critical times like data releases.

Summary of Key Adjustments:

• Reduce position size and risk until you recover drawdown.
• Avoid trading on the open of a new month or quarter without proper key levels marked from the prior period.
• Stick to your time-based rules (e.g., wait until 10 AM to trade).
• Use higher timeframes (like the 5-minute chart) when VWAP settings reset.
• Avoid overnight trading if it leads to exhaustion during the main session.

These takeaways highlight the importance of strict rule adherence, better preparation for significant market changes (like monthly opens), and reducing execution errors to avoid repeating similar costly mistakes.

 

* I have to note the observation that when the market opened at 9:30 today, there was a slight imbalance to the draw on liquidity that was very slight, because today, the sell off took place from a balanced price range at the daily moving average and draw on liquidity, I have to note this rule for future reference that once the iblance is filled to the moving average and draw on liquidity, price has a likely probability to reverse, no matter how big or small the price imbalance is. 

 

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

You lost 2 times the daily loss limit, therefor you will not be trading tomorrow. You also are not allowed to trade more than 1 contract until you compleley cover the 500 drawdown compared to you max loss limit because of this. 

Today we were faked out, due to false signals from our lowerband from our VWAP settings, due to the fact that the new monthly candle open, reset all of our VWAP settings. And this is a crucial mistake and error we can never make again in the future. 

This could have been avoided by simply having listened to the buy and sell ovals I had positioned in my technical analysis from the overnight session. I came into this trading session with a neutral bias for the day, and in all honesty, I just had to wait for one of the ovals to be knocked out of position to understand the bias for the trading day. 

I will say, its very unfortunate that this type of move couldnt have happened yesterday when. I was positioned, constant invisible buyers and support stepping up at the pre market low Over and Over and Over again, yet today, when I attempt to take a turtle soup setup of the premarket low, after thinking that there would be a move back up after overnight longs were taken out of position, I suffered my biggest loss in a while. 

I think its also bullshit, that when I was positoned for this type of drop yesterday, the premarket low was bought up over 5 times and then rallied into the close. THEN, because I was exausted from staying up all night, trading the overnight session, I didnt want to trade this overnight session, which has now positioned shorts for this massive drop 

I must stop these big losses in incur once a month. From monthly levels, monthly candles ect. This was also the open of a new quarterly candle. and I also didnt listen to my rule that I should wait until 10AM to trade. 

Never trust the VWAP settings on a new monthly candle open ever again. 

Either way, its likelt we wouldnt have caught this trade because of course its a 9:30AM move, BEFORE DATA, which is also strange. But the trade of the dau setup at this current moment, was a sell stop order at the premarket low, for when overnight longs were knocked out of position, rather then try to play a liquidity sweep, turtle soup setup after they were swept.

Price was showcasing that bulls were in the trade of the day setup in the overnight from the premarket low to premarket high. So this quite literally was the last bullish attempt and run up from these price levels. 

I let the concept of an 'easy money trade' with my upper and lowerbands block my thought process on the overall draw on liquidity taking place in the market. I should have been well aware that because we are starting a new quarter and month, that the sweep would begin to the downside before the upside. 

This is also the first time in a very long time, that I have seen a pre market low dropout like this. Which shifted the structure from rangebound, to trend. 

I also should have listened to the 5 minute chart, instead of the 1 minute, since the VWAP month settings were fresh, and I have incorporated the 5 minute chart with the Month VWAP from the prior month. Had I listened to 5 minute price action instead, I would have been sized lighter, and likely only have taken 1 loss, instead of multiple shorter timeframe papercuts that resulted in way bigger loss on the day then I should have. 

Also, many executional errors on the day, like selling market into the 10 am data, which somehow resulted in a loss, when I was under the impression I sold seconds earlier than the data, and thought I was chipping away at some of the morning loss, but it resulted in an etra 50-80 dollar loss, complete garbage. I was getting rejected on certain orders I was placing, and the final market exit had alot of slippage, creating a bigger loss. SO OVERALL, this entire day was a complete shit show, mis read direction, executional errors, unlucky between yesterday and todays sessions, and how price action was delivered. But now we have something to refer to at the start of the next month, and quarterly candles. 

Another thing we can do to avoid this type of loss again in the future, is that prior to each new monthly candle opening, we can mark the most important upper and lowerband levels from the month prior, to really gauge where price may be delivered, instead of relying on the new VWAP each month. 

The new Month VWAP, can also apply to ALL TIMEFRAMES, from 1 hour and below, since the 1 hour chart factors in a month of price action. 

 

ALL OF THESE MISTAKES AND ISSUES CAN NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN. 

8:30 DATA, accumulation low, Cut Trade Early, ESMI Data, LIS (Bearish), Lowerband to VWAP, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Candle High (Hold Above) Lowerband, Turtle Soup (Prior Daily Low),

Here are the key takeaways from today's trading notes:

1. Neutral Opening Approach: You began the day with no specific directional bias, opting to read pure price action during the 9:30 trading session, while keeping in mind the 4-day bearish orderblock from last week.

2. Bearish Context Awareness: Despite no bias, you were conscious of the prevailing bearish trend from the 4-day bearish orderblock and the overnight selloff, indicating the market might lean bearish.

3. Caution Due to Contract Rollover: Aware of the increased potential for market chop during contract rollover, you decided to avoid meaningless trades and only take an A+ setup with good risk-to-reward.

4. Volatility and No Hasty Entry: You observed high volatility and waited for a confirmed multi-timeframe variation switch before executing a trade, showing patience and discipline in managing risk.

5. Technical Analysis Led Long Trade: Even though the market was flushing to the downside, you anticipated a short squeeze due to sellers trying to sell low rather than high. This led to a long entry targeting the 4-day bearish orderblock for a retest.

6. Missed "Trade of the Day" Setup: You identified the 9:30 short as the "Trade of the Day" setup, a strategy that had worked last week, but you didn't execute it today.

7. Conservative Trade Management: After entering long, you covered the trade early, booking a profit of around 1 R. Despite this, you left the trade template on the screen to see how the trade might have unfolded if held longer.

8. Second Trade Opportunity: After cutting the first trade at 1R, you re-entered in case of a squeeze to the upside, effectively managing risk and positioning for potential upside.

9. Reflections on Swing Shorts: You noted that the successful shorts for the day were those who held positions from Friday's close. You remain curious about whether the market will retest key levels in the upcoming session.

10. New Rule for Orderblocks: You implemented a rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it lowers the probability of a successful entry. This added to your caution about taking further short trades.

Summary:

• You maintained a disciplined, cautious approach with no bias.
• Took a long position despite the bearish context, capitalizing on a potential short squeeze.
• Missed executing the "Trade of the Day" short setup.
• Ended the day up 1 R, showing strong risk management.

 

 

 

Today, we came into the trading day with no directional bias, and decided that we would just read pure price action from the opening bell for the 9:30 trading session.

One thing that I kept in mind from last Friday, was that we have bearish orderflow & distribution from the 4 day bearish orderblock. So when I came to the computer today, I noticed that we were selling off from the overnight, and everything seemed like a bearish bias would have been the correct though process for the trading day, but I still aproached it with an open mind, to just wait for a clean price action signal with good risk to reward, and that I would be content it I didnt execute a trade on the day. We had a bearish line in the sand, and a VWAP lowerband that wasnt being respected in the overnight session. 

I also was aware that there was a contract rollover for the Nasdaq, and I have noticed in the past that there tends to be more chop during contract rollover. Ontop of that, volatility for the trading session was high, so I knew that if there wasnt an A+ setup, I would be content with not trading, to avoid taking any meaningless losses.

When the market opened, we flushed to the downside, but at this point I was just reading price action, and I was waiting for full confirmation of a variation switch from a multi timeframe analysis persepctive. 

I also had in mind that this new weekly candle that has opened, is still in a bearish downtrend, and currently still distributing from the 4 day bearish orderblock, with the prior weekly high, as a supply area. 

But i figured that, there was an extremity to the downside, without full price action confirmation to take the short side trade, and from my technical analysis, it displayed that the real short entry for longs on the session, was near the pre market high and the 4 day bearish orerblock. So I began to assume that shorts would be squeezed due to the fact that they were trying to sell low, rather than sell high. 

So when I went long, I targeted the 4 day bearish orderblock, assuming that we could see a retest, and look for short entries if they provided an opportunity. 

 But as it stands, todays price action displayed that the real shorts who won on the session, were those that swung short from the friday close over the weekend, from the 19555.25 level. I am curious to see if the market will provide another retest of this level. Because there is also an un swept liquidit area above it for a weekly bearish orderblock, but the thing is, if we manage to make it to that level, it will likely be invalidated due to the fact that we recently implemented a new rule that if the timeframe of the orderblock is trending against the signal, it is a less likely chance it will be a high probability trading entry. 

So my thought process is, that if shorts want to stay in control, then this weekly candle should flush out, and hold the 4 day bearish orderblock for a drop lower. For that reason, I left my current trade template still on the screen, even though I covered early, to see if the trade theoretically would have worked if I swung.

Another important thing to note, if that I didnt execute the 'trade of the day setup' that was working all of last week. From what Im looking at, the 9:30 short was the trade of the day setup, and also the overnight short. So i decided to mark those, since they are currently positoned. Will be very telling to see if they get knocked out of position in the overnight and premarket session before tomorrows trading day. 

With that being said, I ended the day green, up around 1 R-Multiple. 

I cut my first trade at 1R, and immediately re entered incase we squeezed to the upside, to bankroll the second trade if it worked. 

2D DOL Lower, 8:30 DATA Reversal, 9:30 Open DOL Lower, 9:30 Open Short, Afterhours Open Short, Breakeven Trade, D DOL Lower, DIdnt Reach Profit Target, DOL Higher, LIS (Bearish), LIS Reversal, M30 Bearish Orderblock S, M5 FVG Short, NFP, Turtle Soup Long, Upperband to Lowerband Short, VWAP Upperband Target, Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,

1. Contradictory Market Bias

• You initially identified potential bullish follow-through based on several technical factors (e.g., untapped demand areas and bullish "Line in the Sand"). However, despite these indicators, the overnight session had a short setup, and the market didn't follow your expected bullish bias. This reveals a mismatch between your analysis and market behavior, suggesting the need to refine your directional bias.

2. Ignoring Higher Timeframe Gaps

• One major mistake occurred during the 9:30 session, where you entered based on a 1-minute fair value gap closure without waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes (5-minute and 15-minute). The higher timeframe gaps held more significance, indicating that your entries were premature and lacked multi-timeframe alignment.

3. Misjudging Supply and Demand Zones

• You noticed the absence of a 5-minute demand zone in the overnight session, which may have contributed to your failed bullish "Line in the Sand." Similarly, during the 9:30 session, you anticipated that the bearish line in the sand would fail because there was no 1-minute demand zone. This led to a wrong bias and influenced poor trade decisions, including an unnecessary long.

4. Failure to Adapt to Market Conditions

• After identifying the shift from a bullish to bearish "Line in the Sand" between the overnight and 9:30 sessions, you failed to adapt quickly enough, sticking to a bullish bias when the market was signaling bearish. In hindsight, your first stop-out could have been the perfect short entry, showing hesitation to flip your bias in real time.

5. Overconfidence in Low Timeframe Setups

• You focused on low-timeframe setups (1-minute fair value gap, 1-minute demand area) without giving enough weight to higher timeframes and market structure. This led to false confidence in trades that were ultimately stopped out due to the dominance of larger, more influential market patterns.

6. Overtrading & Emotional Reactions

• You took multiple losses during the overnight session and continued trading into the 9:30 session without reassessing market conditions thoroughly. The "easy money trade" you took off the VWAP lower band was another loss, showing a pattern of overtrading rather than waiting for optimal setups.

7. Self-Reflection & Adjustments

• You recognize that many of the mistakes are avoidable, such as failing to align with higher timeframes, entering trades without strong confirmations, and misjudging the strength of demand and supply zones. The overall takeaway is that you need to make significant adjustments and improvements to avoid repeating these mistakes.

Key Improvements to Focus On:

1. Align Entries with Higher Timeframes – Ensure that your 1-minute or short-term entries are confirmed by higher timeframe signals (5-minute, 15-minute).

2. Respect Market Structure – Be more adaptable when the market structure changes (e.g., when the Line in the Sand flips).

3. Avoid Premature Bias Shifts – Stick to your plan, but be open to flipping bias when valid signals present themselves.

4. Reduce Overtrading – Limit the number of trades and ensure each entry has a strong technical basis, especially when early trades result in losses.

5. Focus on Key Setups – Prioritize higher probability setups and resist taking "easy" trades based on emotional reactions or minor signals.

By improving these areas, you'll be able to make better decisions, minimize losses, and increase your consistency moving forward.

 

 

Adjustments for the Next Trading Session:

1. Align Entries with Higher Timeframes

   • Focus on higher timeframe confirmations (5-minute, 15-minute) before taking 1-minute setups. Make sure the broader market structure supports your trade idea before entering on a smaller timeframe.

2. Respect Market Structure

   • Adapt to market shifts more quickly. If you see a shift in the "Line in the Sand" or market behavior contradicts your initial bias, be prepared to pivot and adjust your strategy, even if it means reversing your directional bias.

3. Improve Demand and Supply Zone Analysis

   • Ensure you're analyzing demand and supply zones across multiple timeframes, particularly the higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute). Don’t rely solely on untapped zones in lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute) without supporting evidence.

4. Wait for Clear Confirmation

   • Instead of jumping into trades based on lower timeframe signals, wait for clear confirmation. If you're trading a 1-minute fair value gap, make sure there's alignment with higher timeframe gaps or other key levels (e.g., 50% mean reversions on larger timeframes).

5. Limit Overtrading

   • Set a rule for yourself to limit the number of trades you take. Once you hit your daily risk limit or experience two losses, step back and reassess the market without rushing into more trades.

6. Trade Only the Best Setups

   • Focus on your highest probability setups. Define and stick to "A+ setups" like key trend reversals or clear support/resistance breaks. Avoid chasing trades that don't align with your trading plan.

Key Intention for the Next Trading Session:

"Patience and Confirmation Over Impulse"

Your key focus should be waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entering a trade. Every time you feel the urge to trade based on a lower timeframe signal, stop and check whether higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute, or even H1/H4) align with your idea. This will help you avoid premature entries and impulsive trading decisions.

 

 

Not a good trading session for both the overnight and 9:30 open session.

In the overnight, when performing my technical analysis, I noticed a few things. 

- We didnt reach the Daily draw on liquidity lower, and we created a slight bullish trend candle formation on the daily chart.

- We still didnt tap into the liquidity higher from the daily bearish fair value gap to the 2 day orderblock, or any liquidity sweeps/runs higher into any 50% mean reversions on higher timeframes

- We had a bullish Line In The Sand at that time

- We had an untapped 1 minute demand area, indicating a potential hold of the lower levels

All of these indicators, suggested to me that we could get potential bullish follow through, because althought I thought overall that the market would see lower prices, I thought in general that the market would want to trade to higher prices first, (ideally around the 2 Day Bearish Orderblock) (After liquidity was swept) to take a sell signal for lower prices. But this didnt happen. It was an overnight short setup from the overnight opening print on the first bullish to bearish variation. Which currently stands as this trading sessions 'Trade Of The Day' setup. 

So how did I trade this?

Well, I took 2 losses attempting to trade the 1 minute untapped demand area, and also got caught in a 'bullish line in the sand' reversal. 

I then entered shortly after on a 'Bullish Turtle Soup' setup after the liquidity was swept. And this trade was going well for some time, until It failed to reach my overall profit target, and came back to take me out of the trade at breakeven.

Then, I woke up and decided to trade the 9:30 session, and there was a full thing I was noticing from the technicals.

- We flipped from an overnight bullish line in the sand, to a 9:30 session bearish line in the sand. 

( And a key observation that I noticed in the failure of the overnight line in the sand, from my estimation, was that it was lacking a 5 minute demand area. None existed, because the liquidity on all 5 minute demands were swept at that time)

Because I thought that because there was no 5 minute demand for the bullish line in the sand, I also noticed that there wasnt a 1 minute demand area that existed for the bearish line in the sand.

This influenced my bias, to believe that the bearish line in the sand would also fail, and that I should approach the 9:30 session with a bullish bias, to tap into more sell side liquidity, and look for an extremity or reversal trade after liquidity was swept. 

Well, this didnt happen, and the 30 minute bearish orderblock created off of the bearish line in the sand rejection in the premarket session, at was the high for the 9:30 session open. 

The 9:30 session trade that I took, was a 1 minute close above a 1 minute 50% fair value gap, which also aligned in confluence with a close above the 1st deviation moving average. But I didnt wait for the 5 minute 50% fair value gap closure, OR the 15 minute fair value gap closure. Which was clear dispacement lower from the open, with a failure to reverse where I entered long. SO its clear that the higher timeframe fair value gaps held more weight than the 1 minute fair value gap. 

Upon this loss, I took one more final trade on what I have journal as my 'easy money trade' which is a simple reaction at the upper or lower VWAP bands.

In this case, I took a lowerband long setup off of a 1 minute price action reaction (bearish to bullish variation) and took my second loss for the session.

In hindsight, My first stopout ( 1 minute fair value gap failure ) actually could have provided me a short entry trade of the day setup, had I just chose to sell rather than to buy. So I made many mistakes between the overnight and the 9:30 trading sessions. 

Overall, I need to make many adjustments to ensure that I solve all of these mistakes and issues. And dont bring it into the next trading week. 

Bearish DATA, H1 Bullish Orderblock, H12 Downtrend, H6 Downtrend, LIS (Bearish), M30 Bullish Orderblock, Orderblock Failure,

Key Takeaways from Today's Losing Trading Day

 

Trading Rule: Bearish Data Drop Confirmation with Retest Verification

Rule Overview: To confirm a bearish market reaction following a significant negative economic data release, ensure that the data drop open price is tested and confirmed on the 15-minute chart before executing trades.

Rule Details:

1. Identify Bearish Data Release:

   • Trigger Event: Detect a significant negative economic data release, such as a large drop in factory orders or other key indicators.
   • Threshold: The decline should be notably worse than market expectations, typically a drop of 3% or more compared to a prior positive trend or consensus forecast.

2. Initial Price Reaction:

   • Open Price Impact: Observe the market's initial reaction to the data release. Note the price level where the data release impact causes a sharp drop.

3. Check 15-Minute Chart Confirmation:

   • Retest Observation: After the initial drop, monitor the 15-minute chart to see if the price retests the open price level where the drop occurred.
   • Retest Confirmation Criteria: For a valid confirmation:
     • Sustained Bearish Trend: Ensure that the retest of the open price is followed by a sustained downward movement.
     • Break of Retest: The price should fail to hold at or above the retest level, showing a clear rejection of higher prices.
     • Volume Confirmation: Look for increased trading volume during the retest and subsequent decline to support the bearish sentiment.

4. Execute Trade:

   • Short Position: If the 15-minute chart confirms the bearish sentiment through sustained downtrend and failed retest, consider entering a short position or trading in line with the bearish outlook.
   • Stop-Loss and Targets: Set appropriate stop-loss levels to manage risk, and define profit targets based on technical analysis from the 15-minute chart.

5. Review and Adjust:

   • Post-Trade Monitoring: Continuously monitor the 15-minute chart after entering the trade to ensure the bearish trend persists and adjust if necessary.
   • Adapt Strategy: Be ready to modify your trading strategy if market conditions change or if new data releases alter the bearish outlook.

Example Scenario:

• Data Release: Factory Orders data shows a -3.3% decline vs. a -3.0% consensus.
• Initial Impact: The price drops sharply following the data release.
• 15-Minute Chart Analysis: Observe the price retesting the drop open price level. Confirm that the price fails to stay above this level, showing a sustained bearish trend with increased volume.
• Action: Enter a short position based on the confirmed bearish sentiment from the 15-minute chart.

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This updated rule ensures that you not only respond to significant bearish data but also confirm the market’s continued bearish outlook through price action and retest verification on a shorter time frame.

 

1. Premarket Analysis and Entry Decision:

   • Arrived slightly late, catching the bearish Jobs Report data drop.
   • Identified a major decision level, with the market sitting at the final support above a major swing low.
   • Chose the bullish order block with confluence between the H1 and M30 charts.
   • Plan to go long above 18745.50 if the market holds the swing low into the open.
   • Recognized the risk of the trade weakening if the swing low was swept.

2. Initial Long Trade Execution:

   • Entered long but got faked out.
   • Followed the plan and rules despite a significant loss due to high volatility and large stop loss.
   • Encountered a larger loss than usual, impacting the week's overall performance.

3. Trade Analysis and Reflection:

   • Used custom timeframes instead of default timeframes for technical analysis, leading to potential misalignment.
   • The bearish interpretation of the 8:30 data drop acted as a break and retest short entry at VWAP.
   • Extreme volatility led to a large stop loss, resulting in a significant drawdown.
   • Plan to develop a new trading rule to account for data interpretation drops acting as break and retest areas.

4. LIS and Trend Considerations:

   • Attempted a counter-trend trade despite the LIS downtrending.
   • Previous experience with an H6 trend shift against LIS influenced decision-making.
   • Need to wait for a trend shift on the H6 chart to potentially invalidate the LIS in future trades.

5. Monthly Chart and Premarket Insight:

   • Monthly chart began a bearish trend after the overnight draw on liquidity.
   • Trusted a deep swing low outside the default timeframe range, which proved unreliable.
   • Recognized that bullish order flow might not step in until at least 1 PM, but the long entry didn't reverse the trend.

6. Subsequent Trades and Adaptation:

   • Took another loss on a 1-minute chart trade, immediately re-entered, attempting to adapt to a bearish data interpretation setup.
   • Encountered another stop out, indicating market manipulation and volatility.
   • Felt the market was in a "rob your money mode," leading to frustration and the need to step away.

Summary of Lessons and Areas for Improvement

1. Time Management:

   • Ensure timely arrival to the trading desk to allow sufficient premarket analysis.

2. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Stick to default timeframes for technical analysis to avoid misalignment and unreliable setups.

3. Data Interpretation:

   • Recognize the potential for data drops to act as break and retest areas, and adjust strategies accordingly.

4. Trend and LIS Consideration:

   • Avoid counter-trend trades unless there is a clear trend shift on higher timeframes (e.g., H6 chart).

5. Volatility and Risk Management:

   • Be cautious with high volatility periods to avoid excessively large stop losses and significant drawdowns.

6. Emotional Control and Adaptation:

   • Maintain emotional discipline and avoid frustration-driven trades.
   • Develop and adhere to new trading rules based on recent experiences and analysis.

By reflecting on these takeaways, you can refine your trading strategies, enhance your decision-making processes, and improve overall trading performance.

 

 

 

 

(PREMARKET)

8:53AM. Got to the computer slightly late today. But its okay. I was able to catch the recent data drop (Jobs Report) at 8:30AM. Which came as a bearish interpretation.

The market is currently at a crucial spot at a major decision level. Its currently sitting at what I believe to be the final support level in the market above a major swing low. The Bullish Orderblock I have sitting above the currently swing low, has confluence between the H1 and M30 charts. So I decided to keep that as my level. There was a major flush after the data drop. And the market is below the VWAP on the 1D chart. And also has an extremity on the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP. And seems to have confluence with an H1 to M30 hold, currently sitting above the 18745.50 level. That level aligns with the VWAP on the 1D Chart. Aligns with the price action reaction for my bullish orderblock, and also aligns with a reacapture of the lower VWAP Band extremity on the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP. Lastly, a recapture of the 8:30 data drop. 

That is my current gut feeling to take the market long above 18745.50 if the market can hold the swing low into the open

If it runs the swing low SSL, it makes the trade less of a strong signal in my opinion. 

10:06AM: Got faked out long. Ending the week red.

Followed my plan, the entry required a retarted amount of risk on a simple 5 minute candle. Pretty redicules.

I followed my plan, it was fully triggered. Followed every single rule, yet still, I got fucked. 

 

I think if theres any chance for this market to bounce, it will be around 1PM orderflow. 

I had to take a 1 and done trade today, because the stoploss was so big on the M5 entry, that I can keep rolling the dice. Usually I can stop out of a trade with max $100 dollar loss. But again, because of this volatlity, a single 1 trade 5 minute stoploss resulted in a $362 loss, nearly taking away all of the gains from yesterday. 

Had I not taken such a massive $600 loss the other day, I probably would have ended the first week green. But i have to do everything in my power to make sure that I make it to the payout. Everything is on the line. And im doing everything in my power to make it happen. 

I will end week 1 of my performance account, down $212.84

Its not the end of the world, I still have 2054 left in trailing drawdown. 

 

 

(How Could I Have Avoided This Loss)

- I think one of the ways is that, when I was doing technical analysis into the most recent swing low, I was using custom timeframes, instead of the default timeframes. And this swing low, would have needed at least 180D 4H timeframe for confirmation, but I went into the H1 and M30 untapped orderblocks to see if there could be a deep retracement into the swing low. I figured since the draw on liquidity was already swept in the premarket session, and because the swing low was still intact, that if the market V shaped, as it did, then it would result in a green trade

- The 8:30 data drop had a bearish interpretation. 

Although i really do feel robbed on this trade, because I set my entry at what I believed was full confirmation, for a reversal of the data drop. The data drop actually held as a break and retest short entry at the VWAP, at the exact moment where I went long.

And because of the extreme volatility in the markets, my 5 minute candle entry, was literally a 200 point stop, over the top risk. But it moved up so quickly and decisively, and closed outside the extremity range lowerband on the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP, that i really anticipated a higher move. For now I will have to wait for the ending of the trading session to see where the trade of the day was and how I could have spotted it. As of now, it feels I got long at the short entry trade of the day.

But even when analyzing that short, I dont see how I could have capitalized on it other than waiting for the bullish to bearish variation on the 1 Minute chart, as a price action reaction to where the trade signaled that I should get long. The move feels manipulated at the moment. 

Overall, I will have to develop a new trading rule based off of this concept of bearish or bullish data interpretation drops.

That they can act as break and retest areas, rather than A side trend setups depending on the interpretation

- The LIS was still downtrending. So it was a counter trend trade.

This was difficult for me to trust, because yesterday, the LIS was uptrending, yet there was an H6 trend shift against the LIS, which resulted in a green trade for me, because I stayed with the orderflow of the H6 trend instead. 

What I did wrong today was, not waiting for the trend shift on the H6 chart, to potentially invalidate the LIS. So, I will have to develop a new trading rule off of this concept to avoid losses again in the future. 

- The Monthly Chart began a bearish trend at the break of the draw on liquidity from the overnight.

This one is also tricky, because although the draw on liquidity was reached in the overnight, the deep swing low was still intact which I trusted. But again, I probably shouldnt have trusted it because it was outside of the default timeframe range. 

- The Premarket suggested that bullish orderflow wouldnt step in until at least 1PM

Again, tricky. I thought my long entry could reverse it. But it didnt. And its probably because the H6 trend didnt reverse into the LIS. 

 

11:45AM: Just took another loss, immediate stopout on 1 Minute Chart. I immediately re entered (11:49AM)

This is a bearish data interpretation, Break & Retest, 1D VWAP short setup, the same that was presented at the open.

The trade I got faked out on, on the open, was this same setup, so I guess I will play the opposite side and take the trade that stopped me out. If it doesnt work, that would mean I have been faked out both ways, and taking a setup that resulted in a loss before. Theres simply nothing I can do if it doesnt work. I am trying to adapt.

11:58AM: stopped out.

Now the trade I took in the morning is working, break of the extremity on the M5 chart. With the M5 staying intact, and the M1 stopout at the VWAP bullish to bearish variation. I seriously have to step away. The market is literally in rob your money mode. Criminal activity taking place.