1D 5M (Month VWAP), 1D VWAP Confluence, 50BPS, FOMC Day, LIS (Bullish), LIS M1 Demand Hold, Lowerband to Upperband Long, M5 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M5 Entry, Rate Cut, Take Profit Hit, VWAP (MONTH) Lowerband to Upperband, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, Wk Bearish Orderblock Target,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Improved Mindset and Process:

   • You felt that your trading approach has leveled up, emphasizing the value of journaling and preparation. This shift from impulsive execution to a data-driven strategy, along with the influence of Lance’s quote about work outside of trading, has led to more focused and patient trading.
   • Focusing on Expected Value Dynamics and waiting for full reactions off key levels has sharpened your decision-making, boosting your confidence.

2. Strong Execution During FOMC:

   • You executed with a bullish bias based on solid technical reasons, including a weekly trend shift and untapped liquidity. This analysis led to your best trading day on the evaluation, earning over $600 with just 2 micros, indicating improved performance and risk management.

3. Adaptability and Use of VWAP:

   • You adjusted your strategy by utilizing a longer-term VWAP on the 5-minute chart to confirm entries. This led to a better, more accurate entry from the lower band, reinforcing the importance of using higher timeframe VWAPs in volatile markets.
   • Although you fought for price on the 1-minute chart and faced two stopouts, you recognized that sticking to the 5-minute VWAP would have provided a more optimal, no-drawdown entry.

4. Awareness of Weekly Bearish Orderblock:

   • Despite the bullish bias, you noted the importance of the weekly bearish orderblock that triggered towards the session's end. You plan to monitor closely how the weekly trend interacts with this key resistance level in the next trading session.

5. Contract Rollover Anomaly:

   • You observed an interesting discrepancy between /MNQU24 and /NQ regarding the quarterly draw on liquidity, suggesting that different contracts are giving you different reads on price action. You plan to track this during future rollovers to better understand which contracts hold more weight.

6. Patience and Decision-Making:

   • You demonstrated patience in waiting for your bullish setup to develop, but you also reflected on the importance of simplifying your entry approach by relying more on the higher timeframe charts, which would have prevented multiple stopouts.

Key Learnings and Adjustments:

• Journaling and Preparation: Continue to prioritize reviewing and refining your system outside of market hours, as this has significantly improved your trading approach.
• Stay Focused on Higher Timeframes: Rely more on the 5-minute chart for entry confirmation instead of fighting for price on the 1-minute, which can lead to unnecessary stopouts.
• Monitor Weekly Bearish Orderblock: Pay close attention to how the weekly bearish orderblock and the new trend shift interact in the next session, as this could signal an important turning point for future trades.
• Track Contract Rollover Discrepancies: Stay vigilant regarding discrepancies in liquidity levels between contracts during rollovers to avoid confusion or misreading price action.

This session highlights your growth as a trader and how detailed analysis, patience, and preparation have led to improved results.

 

 

 

Woke up a bit late, around 10:00AM because my alarm clock didnt go off.

Noticed price action was basically untradable on the open, and luckily I fell asleep yesterday while monitoring price action, because the overnight long theory didnt play out, It played out during todays trading session. 

I traded this FOMC like a true elite trader, and I really feel like im stepping into the next level up in my trading career, and I definitely believe that journaling is part of the reason why. As soon as I decided to take a data backed approach to trading, rather than an executional and high pressure decision based trading, it feels like that has put me into the next level. And a quote from Lance hit me hard, and that is, his workday actually starts when the trading day ends. Its all about what you do when the markets not trading, and how you are fine tuning your trading system, and identifying what works well and what doesnt. He compared his quote to a basketball game, where if a professional, only got hours in when they were in game, but never practiced or fine tuned the small things off of the court, then they would fall short during the game, and thats exactly how trading is. Your simply waiting for your setup.

Those quotes, coupled with the concepts of 'Expected Value Dynamics' and trading the "Right Side of The V" has dramatically changed my trading, Because now, I am waiting for full reactions off of the levels im interested in, and my risk is defined, and my edge is high. 

 

With that being said, I came into this trading session (FOMC interest rate decision) with a bullish outlook, specifically because, we shifted trend on the weekly timeframe, and had untapped liquidity and an unfinished auction to the upside, and also, broke the 4 day bearish orderblock weekly trend. So i seen this setup quietly approaching under the radar, while everyone was bearish for the most part. 

I like how consistent I have been as well for this evaluation, it has taken alot of pressure off of me not having to worry about trailing drawdown, breakeven trades, and letting them just work. I also had my biggest trading day so far on this evaluation, with only 2 micros. Making over $600 on the day. 

When I was in my trade, it was for sure the trade of the day setup at that time, but one thing I have to take note of is how the market closed today, and it closed with a trade of the day setup, favoring bears with a short from the weekly bearish orderblock. This is something that im going to have to monitor closely going into tomorrow. And that is, how I should approach the trading day with the right bias, when the weekly bullish trend shift has occured, at the same time that the weekly bearish orderblock bas been triggered, withoutn tapping into the weekly buyside liquidity to the upside. 

So we have a new weekly high, weekly trend shift, weekly orderblock all around the same vicinity. with the draw on liquidity, shifting way to the upside on the next deviation timeframe, (Monthly) at 20262.25.

Im noticing something extremely interesting, and that is, on the new contract roll over for the nasdaq, its displaying that the quarterly draw on liquidity has been breached, which is the first time im seeing this, because on all of the other contracts, it doesnt display that. Im looking at /NQ now, and it is giving me a completely different read of price action, so this is something we are going to have to get to the bottom of. /MNQU24 (prior contract) is also displaying the same thing, that the quarterly draw on liquidity hasent been breached. So we will have to track this closely by the time the next contract rollover comes around. and see is the newer contracts/or older contracts hold more weight. 

 

Now, when I was analyzing an entry for the day, I noticed that, the 1 day VWAP might not have been the best choice, because I felt that price would go higher, but there were so many support levels below in which price could have bounced off of, that I couldnt gauge what would be the best one, so I simply decided to throw on a longer term VWAP on my 5 minute chart, for double the confirmation, and I am very glad I did, because it gave me a great entry from the lowerband, with a bearish to bullish variation for an upside trade. 

I decided to start fighting for price on the 1 minute chart, as it was trend below the 1 Day VWAP lowerband, because I was anticipating a squeeze, and it was also trading my demand area of interest which was yesterdays manipulation stop hunt area, and bullish line in the sand, 1 minute demand. So I figured that if I fought for price on the 1 minute, I could get a great price for the turn of the 5 minute variation.

Due to this, I was stopped out 2 times, and had I just traded off of the 5 minute chart instead, I could have got a no drawdown entry. Which likely would have been favorable. 

I just have such a hard time not executing on the 1 minute because it provides a very deep edge and risk to reward. Had i traded specifically off of the 5 minute chart, I would have gotten a no drawdown entry, but I also would have gotten filled at 19610, and because I fought for price, I had an average price of 19602 with 2 contracts. 

1D 1M VWAP Lowerband & MoAvg Confluence, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Long, LIS (Bullish), LIS M15 Demand, M1 Bullish Close Entry, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bullish Orderblock, M15 Demand LIS, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,

 

Key Confluences for Today's and Yesterday's Counter-Trend Trades:

1. Liquidity Sweep Confluence:

   • Both trades were executed following a draw on liquidity, which was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance, signaling potential reversals.

2. First Deviation Moving Average:

   • The 9:30 AM session showed a sharp move up into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up a short trade. However, this moving average has shown to be less reliable, often providing false signals, especially in the premarket, where it can trigger stopouts.

3. Premarket Considerations:

   • In the premarket, the first deviation moving average signaled a potential stopout, suggesting that the downside move might extend to the second deviation moving average, which aligns better with the trend.

4. Data-Driven Context:

   • The prior day's inactivity due to data release suggested a high probability setup for the upperband to lowerband trade. Today's setup echoed similar conditions with bearish orderblocks and liquidity sweeps.

5. Bearish Orderblocks & Liquidity Context:

   • Today's daily draw on liquidity was situated between multiple bearish orderblocks (H12, H6, H4). However, the initial losses could have been avoided by recognizing that these orderblocks had been "swept," weakening their reliability as resistance.

6. Imbalance & Entry Signals:

   • A significant imbalance above today's 1D 1M upperband, coupled with a full-body close below the upperband, provided a clear short entry signal.

7. Trustworthiness of Resistance Levels:

   • The loss in the first trade could have been avoided by identifying the swept H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, indicating that the resistance level might no longer be strong, especially in a counter-trend scenario.

8. Seller Presence After Liquidity Sweep:

   • The rejection after the buy-side liquidity was swept implied strong seller presence, reinforcing the short bias.

9. Precise Entry Timing:

   • The 1-minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no-drawdown entry points, highlighting the importance of precise timing in executing trades.

Intention for Tomorrow:

Given these confluences, your focus should be on:

• Trusting the Confluences: Prioritize entries where multiple confluences align, especially after a liquidity sweep in conjunction with strong imbalances or key moving averages.
• Identifying Swept Levels: Pay close attention to swept orderblocks and liquidity levels, recognizing that their strength may be diminished, particularly in counter-trend trades.
• Refining Entry Precision: Continue to focus on precise entry timing, using 1-minute closes below key levels as a signal to minimize drawdown and maximize the probability of success.

 

 

 

 

Confluences for today and yesterdays counter trend trade:

* Draw on Liquidity was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance

* The first deviation moving average provided a 9:30 rip up, into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up the short side trade

* The first deviation moving average has shown false signals either in the premarket, displaying a stopout trade, which invalidates it. Leaving more downside room to the second deviation moving average. 

* We had data on the day prior, because no trade opportunity was presented, and the trade of the day setup was an upperband to lowerband trade. 

* Todays daily draw on liquidity was in between multiple bearish orderblocks. (H12/H6 & H4)

* There was a massive imbalance with the move above todays 1d 1m upperband, with a full body close below the upperband giving an entry signal

* We could have avoided the first loss by marking the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks as (swept), signaling that the resistance level might now have been as strong and trustworthy. Especially because it was counter trend. To play counter trend, which is already less probability, the least we can do is use un swept liquidity. 

* Buy side liquidity was swept and (rejected) implying that sellers are present.

* 1 minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no drawdown entries.

 

 

 

Refined Summary of Today's Trading Session:

1. Morning Trade Reflection:

• Trade Execution: Took a long trade against the predominant trend, expecting a similar setup to yesterday's VWAP upperband to lowerband short on the 1D 1M chart. The trade failed.
• Reasoning: Entered off the 1st moving average and 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence with a 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry.
• Observation: Recognized the potential manipulation due to upcoming data releases at 10:30 AM and FOMC minutes at 2 PM. Considered that the overnight session might have weakened the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, which were retested to the tick, leading to the failure of this trade.
• Lesson: Avoid boredom trading; the loss was minimal compared to recent gains. The primary desired entry was off the 2nd moving average, which wasn’t presented.

2. Mid-Morning Short Trade:

• Trade Execution: Entered a short trade after a sweep of Daily draw on liquidity, leveraging H12 and H2 bearish orderblocks, and 1D 1M VWAP upperband confluence on the M1 chart. It was a quick trade against the predominant trend.
• Observation: The lack of volume expansion on the 1D VWAP suggested a range day, prompting the decision to trade against the extremity.
• Lesson: Need to develop a ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, particularly when identifying liquidity sweeps during different sessions (e.g., 9:30 AM vs. overnight).

3. A+ Setup Execution:

• Trade Execution: Took an A+ setup long trade off the 2nd moving average after missing the exact entry due to a walk. The trade was confirmed by an M15 reaction off an M15 orderblock aligned with the ‘Line In The Sand.’
• Management: Partial profit taken at the 1D 1M VWAP upperband, with the plan to let the rest run through the day's high. The trade was based on expected momentum from potential short squeezes.
• Outcome: The trade was successfully managed, trailing out the runners with significant profit.

4. Afternoon Reflection:

• Observation: Noticed a strong confluence when the deviation moving averages align with the upper or lower bands, leading to high probability trades. However, current volume wasn’t expanding, signaling potential exhaustion in upward liquidity sweeps.
• Action Plan: Removed the 1st deviation moving average due to previous failures and decided to focus on developing a ruleset for utilizing moving averages in specific market contexts. Emphasis on defining counter-trend trade setups with clear confluences, as identified in today's trades.

Key Takeaways & Action Points:

1. Avoid Boredom Trading: Ensure that trades are only taken when high-confidence setups are present. Losses can be minimized by sticking to well-defined setups.
2. Data-Backed Trading: Wait for A+ setups that are aligned with the trend and backed by historical data. Be cautious when entering counter-trend trades without a solid plan.
3. Confluence of Indicators: Recognize the importance of multiple confluences (e.g., deviation moving averages, VWAP bands, orderblocks) in identifying high-probability trades.
4. Counter-Trend Ruleset Development: Create a detailed ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, including the conditions under which they are justified and how to manage them effectively.
5. Market Context Analysis: Continuously compare and analyze price action relationships between different sessions (e.g., overnight vs. 9:30 AM) to refine trading decisions.
6. Post-Trade Review: Consistently review and journal trades, focusing on why they succeeded or failed. Use these insights to adapt and improve trading strategies.

Next Steps:

• Develop a Counter-Trend Trading Ruleset: Define the criteria for taking counter-trend trades, focusing on confluences and specific signals that validate such trades.
• Refine Moving Average Usage: Establish rules for when and how to use each moving average in various market contexts.
• Continue Data Collection: Gather more data on the correlation between VWAP bands and moving averages to enhance the robustness of your setups.
• Commit to A+ Setups: Prioritize waiting for A+ setups that align with the trend, and avoid taking trades out of impatience or boredom.

 

 

 

 

10:21AM. Took a long trade knowingly against the predominant trend. Fully aware. Thought it would follow the same setup yesterday where the 9:30 session would provide a upperband to lowerband vwap short on the 1D 1M chart. But it failed. 

It appears currently that the trade was taken off of the 1st moving average and the 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence. 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry. But data is yet to come out, we have it at 10:30 & FOMC minutes at 2PM. Its likely that my short stop could have been manipulated. 

The main entry I want is the one from 2 days ago which is a long off of the 2nd moving average. 

When the day is finished I will do a journaling session on why the first trade failed. Not only was the setup presented yesterday, but the uppband was also in confluence with the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks. It could have been that they were not as strong because they were retested to the tick in the overnight session. And the trade of the day setup in the overnight was a red oval at the retest area, so that basically displayed that shorts were knocked out of postion at that retest, so the loss definitely could have been avoided. I think it a bit of boredom trading because I didnt take one yesterday. But the loss was very minimal compared to the profits Ive been gaining. Ill take one more trade on the day at my ultimate desired entry point. If its not presented, Ill pass up and do a journal session to try to adapt to this market context. 

11:10 AM, caufht a short trade after the sweep of a Daily draw on liquidity and from an H12 and H2 bearish orderblock and 1D 1M Upperband VWAP confluence short. I traded it on the M1 chart and it was a failry quick trade against the predominant trend. And the reason for this is becausew the volume isnt expanding on the 1D VWAP. Its signaling more of a range day, so I decided to play against the extremity. 

Im going to have to develop a ruleset that allows me to take trades against the predominant trend. One thing to note is that todays draw on liquidity was swept in the 9:30 session, and not in the overnight, so Im going to have to define the relationships between today and yesterdays price action. 

12:18PM I took my A+ setup here, I missed the exact entry because I went on a walk, so I just marketed Long, and as Im typing this we just got M15 reaction confirmation off of the M15 orderblock set from the Line In The Sand. The real entry was a 1 Minute close back above the 2nd moving average, after the percieved manipulation sweep and stophunt of longs on the session. I currently have a partial to be taken off at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband around 19940. And I plan to let the rest run through todays HOD, as there is likely alot of fomo shorts from the earlier move, and if they didnt cover profit by now, I think they could potentially go underwater and get their stoplosses squeezed, creating more momentum and buy side liquidity above todays HOD. 

3:15PM. I just got trail stopped out of my runners. Another amazing trading day. I covered a majority at the 1D VWAP Upperband in this trade as well. Volume isnt currently expanding to the upside, so im not sure liquidity towards the upside will continue to be swept in this current trading session. 

But there is definitely a massive confluence correlation for a high probability trade when the deviation moving averages are in synch with the upper or lower bands. I dont have as much data on the band correlating with the upperband at the moment, compared to the lowerband, but so far, they are hitting well. 

I have bascially removed my 1st deviation moving average ever since I was stopped out the other day in the overnight on the H12 trend shift. I would like to develop a rule set this weekend on how and when each moving average comes into play, compared to specific market contexts, and when to take trades like I did today, against the predominant trend, and what signals I gave that resulted in a win. Because although I didnt have a counter trend trade plabooked yet, I felt there was alot of confluences today to take the counter trend trade. My job now is to just define it.

Had i not taken a counter trend trade and still waited for my A+ that is data backed and with the trend, it still would have resulted in a lowerband to upperband trade, for about 150-160 points. 

1 Minute Entry, 1380 Exponential MA, 276 Exponential MA, 5 Minute Entry, Bearish to Bullish Variation, LIS (Bullish), Month Orderblock, Month Orderblock B&R,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Premarket and Overnight Setup:

   • Successfully executed the premarket trade of the day setup overnight.
   • Focused on the H12 line and M1 demand area for continuation higher.

2. New Moving Average Theory:

   • Tested a new theory using exponential moving averages (EMAs) based on the number of candles printed each day.
   • The EMA approach aligned perfectly with the H12 LIS area, providing a precise entry point.
   • Plan to backtest this method to assess its efficacy in predicting daily entry points and sentiment shifts.

3. Supply and Demand Strategy Adjustment:

   • Revised approach to trading supply and demand levels.
   • Noted that liquidity ranges (order blocks or FVGs) are often fully swept before price moves in the expected direction.
   • Previously, targeted the bottom of the liquidity range in supply areas and the top in demand areas, but this led to frequent stop-loss hits.
   • Adjusted strategy to target the top of the liquidity range in supply areas and the bottom in demand areas.
   • Example: Successfully targeted 18745.50 instead of 18676 for a supply area, achieving the target precisely.

4. General Observations:

   • Adding confluences to trading strategies can enhance precision and outcomes.
   • Excited to further backtest and forward test the new moving average approach to refine daily bias and trading decisions.

Overall, today's trades demonstrated the effectiveness of both the new EMA theory and the revised supply and demand strategy, leading to successful trade execution and positive outcomes.

 

 

 

 

This trade was absolutely beautiful, I also hit the premarket trade of the day setup in the overnight. I was tracking the H12 line in the sand and the m1 demand area off of it for a continuation higher. And actually, decided to random test a new exponential moving average theory, of as many candles that print during the day, using it as my timeline. The theory was that if I mathematically use the exact same timeline as the candles that print per day, then I can get a potentially great read on where the entry for each day may be, and when sentiment could full shift. 

Luckily enough, this first test worked out unbelievably, as the M1 and M5 exponential moving averages sat just below that critical H12 LIS area, and tapped the moving average to the tick, which presented me an opportunity to trade the variation on both timeframe setups and walk away with a great trade on the day. I am very exited to backtest this as I believe it can fundamentally help me curate a daily bias very easily, whether above or below the moving average from a theoretical perspective. 

It never hurts to add extra confluences that can give my specific trading staregy an edge, so Im excited to backtest and forward test my trades with the moving average added. 

 

Another thing that I want to note, Is I have shifted my theoritic approach to the way I trade supply and demand levels. And today it worked well as a price target. I have noticed a recurring theme when I trade supply and demand, and its that whatever the range of liquidity is, whether its an orderblock or a FVG, most of the time, all of the liquidity is swept before it makes a move. I used to play the top of the liquidity range in a demand area, and the bottom of the liquidy range in supply areas, and set my stops losses at the peak of the liquidity area. But I noticed a recurring theme of my stoplloss getting swept, for it to move in my direction after the fact.

So todays example, is perfect to look back on as an area of liquidty getting fully swept, and then going in my direction. Had this been my prior trading strategy, I would target 18676 as its the bottom of the liquidty range for this supply area, instead, I target the top of the liquidity range on the supply area at 18745.50. and we hit our target to the T. 

Great Trade,