1D 1M VWAP Lowerband & MoAvg Confluence,
2nd Deviation MovAvg Long,
LIS (Bullish),
LIS M15 Demand,
M1 Bullish Close Entry,
M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation,
M15 Bullish Orderblock,
M15 Demand LIS,
VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,
Key Confluences for Today's and Yesterday's Counter-Trend Trades:
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Liquidity Sweep Confluence:
- Both trades were executed following a draw on liquidity, which was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance, signaling potential reversals.
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First Deviation Moving Average:
- The 9:30 AM session showed a sharp move up into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up a short trade. However, this moving average has shown to be less reliable, often providing false signals, especially in the premarket, where it can trigger stopouts.
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Premarket Considerations:
- In the premarket, the first deviation moving average signaled a potential stopout, suggesting that the downside move might extend to the second deviation moving average, which aligns better with the trend.
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Data-Driven Context:
- The prior day's inactivity due to data release suggested a high probability setup for the upperband to lowerband trade. Today's setup echoed similar conditions with bearish orderblocks and liquidity sweeps.
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Bearish Orderblocks & Liquidity Context:
- Today's daily draw on liquidity was situated between multiple bearish orderblocks (H12, H6, H4). However, the initial losses could have been avoided by recognizing that these orderblocks had been "swept," weakening their reliability as resistance.
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Imbalance & Entry Signals:
- A significant imbalance above today's 1D 1M upperband, coupled with a full-body close below the upperband, provided a clear short entry signal.
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Trustworthiness of Resistance Levels:
- The loss in the first trade could have been avoided by identifying the swept H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, indicating that the resistance level might no longer be strong, especially in a counter-trend scenario.
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Seller Presence After Liquidity Sweep:
- The rejection after the buy-side liquidity was swept implied strong seller presence, reinforcing the short bias.
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Precise Entry Timing:
- The 1-minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no-drawdown entry points, highlighting the importance of precise timing in executing trades.
Intention for Tomorrow:
Given these confluences, your focus should be on:
- Trusting the Confluences: Prioritize entries where multiple confluences align, especially after a liquidity sweep in conjunction with strong imbalances or key moving averages.
- Identifying Swept Levels: Pay close attention to swept orderblocks and liquidity levels, recognizing that their strength may be diminished, particularly in counter-trend trades.
- Refining Entry Precision: Continue to focus on precise entry timing, using 1-minute closes below key levels as a signal to minimize drawdown and maximize the probability of success.
Confluences for today and yesterdays counter trend trade:
* Draw on Liquidity was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance
* The first deviation moving average provided a 9:30 rip up, into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up the short side trade
* The first deviation moving average has shown false signals either in the premarket, displaying a stopout trade, which invalidates it. Leaving more downside room to the second deviation moving average.
* We had data on the day prior, because no trade opportunity was presented, and the trade of the day setup was an upperband to lowerband trade.
* Todays daily draw on liquidity was in between multiple bearish orderblocks. (H12/H6 & H4)
* There was a massive imbalance with the move above todays 1d 1m upperband, with a full body close below the upperband giving an entry signal
* We could have avoided the first loss by marking the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks as (swept), signaling that the resistance level might now have been as strong and trustworthy. Especially because it was counter trend. To play counter trend, which is already less probability, the least we can do is use un swept liquidity.
* Buy side liquidity was swept and (rejected) implying that sellers are present.
* 1 minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no drawdown entries.
Refined Summary of Today's Trading Session:
1. Morning Trade Reflection:
- Trade Execution: Took a long trade against the predominant trend, expecting a similar setup to yesterday's VWAP upperband to lowerband short on the 1D 1M chart. The trade failed.
- Reasoning: Entered off the 1st moving average and 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence with a 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry.
- Observation: Recognized the potential manipulation due to upcoming data releases at 10:30 AM and FOMC minutes at 2 PM. Considered that the overnight session might have weakened the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, which were retested to the tick, leading to the failure of this trade.
- Lesson: Avoid boredom trading; the loss was minimal compared to recent gains. The primary desired entry was off the 2nd moving average, which wasn’t presented.
2. Mid-Morning Short Trade:
- Trade Execution: Entered a short trade after a sweep of Daily draw on liquidity, leveraging H12 and H2 bearish orderblocks, and 1D 1M VWAP upperband confluence on the M1 chart. It was a quick trade against the predominant trend.
- Observation: The lack of volume expansion on the 1D VWAP suggested a range day, prompting the decision to trade against the extremity.
- Lesson: Need to develop a ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, particularly when identifying liquidity sweeps during different sessions (e.g., 9:30 AM vs. overnight).
3. A+ Setup Execution:
- Trade Execution: Took an A+ setup long trade off the 2nd moving average after missing the exact entry due to a walk. The trade was confirmed by an M15 reaction off an M15 orderblock aligned with the ‘Line In The Sand.’
- Management: Partial profit taken at the 1D 1M VWAP upperband, with the plan to let the rest run through the day's high. The trade was based on expected momentum from potential short squeezes.
- Outcome: The trade was successfully managed, trailing out the runners with significant profit.
4. Afternoon Reflection:
- Observation: Noticed a strong confluence when the deviation moving averages align with the upper or lower bands, leading to high probability trades. However, current volume wasn’t expanding, signaling potential exhaustion in upward liquidity sweeps.
- Action Plan: Removed the 1st deviation moving average due to previous failures and decided to focus on developing a ruleset for utilizing moving averages in specific market contexts. Emphasis on defining counter-trend trade setups with clear confluences, as identified in today's trades.
Key Takeaways & Action Points:
- Avoid Boredom Trading: Ensure that trades are only taken when high-confidence setups are present. Losses can be minimized by sticking to well-defined setups.
- Data-Backed Trading: Wait for A+ setups that are aligned with the trend and backed by historical data. Be cautious when entering counter-trend trades without a solid plan.
- Confluence of Indicators: Recognize the importance of multiple confluences (e.g., deviation moving averages, VWAP bands, orderblocks) in identifying high-probability trades.
- Counter-Trend Ruleset Development: Create a detailed ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, including the conditions under which they are justified and how to manage them effectively.
- Market Context Analysis: Continuously compare and analyze price action relationships between different sessions (e.g., overnight vs. 9:30 AM) to refine trading decisions.
- Post-Trade Review: Consistently review and journal trades, focusing on why they succeeded or failed. Use these insights to adapt and improve trading strategies.
Next Steps:
- Develop a Counter-Trend Trading Ruleset: Define the criteria for taking counter-trend trades, focusing on confluences and specific signals that validate such trades.
- Refine Moving Average Usage: Establish rules for when and how to use each moving average in various market contexts.
- Continue Data Collection: Gather more data on the correlation between VWAP bands and moving averages to enhance the robustness of your setups.
- Commit to A+ Setups: Prioritize waiting for A+ setups that align with the trend, and avoid taking trades out of impatience or boredom.
10:21AM. Took a long trade knowingly against the predominant trend. Fully aware. Thought it would follow the same setup yesterday where the 9:30 session would provide a upperband to lowerband vwap short on the 1D 1M chart. But it failed.
It appears currently that the trade was taken off of the 1st moving average and the 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence. 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry. But data is yet to come out, we have it at 10:30 & FOMC minutes at 2PM. Its likely that my short stop could have been manipulated.
The main entry I want is the one from 2 days ago which is a long off of the 2nd moving average.
When the day is finished I will do a journaling session on why the first trade failed. Not only was the setup presented yesterday, but the uppband was also in confluence with the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks. It could have been that they were not as strong because they were retested to the tick in the overnight session. And the trade of the day setup in the overnight was a red oval at the retest area, so that basically displayed that shorts were knocked out of postion at that retest, so the loss definitely could have been avoided. I think it a bit of boredom trading because I didnt take one yesterday. But the loss was very minimal compared to the profits Ive been gaining. Ill take one more trade on the day at my ultimate desired entry point. If its not presented, Ill pass up and do a journal session to try to adapt to this market context.
11:10 AM, caufht a short trade after the sweep of a Daily draw on liquidity and from an H12 and H2 bearish orderblock and 1D 1M Upperband VWAP confluence short. I traded it on the M1 chart and it was a failry quick trade against the predominant trend. And the reason for this is becausew the volume isnt expanding on the 1D VWAP. Its signaling more of a range day, so I decided to play against the extremity.
Im going to have to develop a ruleset that allows me to take trades against the predominant trend. One thing to note is that todays draw on liquidity was swept in the 9:30 session, and not in the overnight, so Im going to have to define the relationships between today and yesterdays price action.
12:18PM I took my A+ setup here, I missed the exact entry because I went on a walk, so I just marketed Long, and as Im typing this we just got M15 reaction confirmation off of the M15 orderblock set from the Line In The Sand. The real entry was a 1 Minute close back above the 2nd moving average, after the percieved manipulation sweep and stophunt of longs on the session. I currently have a partial to be taken off at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband around 19940. And I plan to let the rest run through todays HOD, as there is likely alot of fomo shorts from the earlier move, and if they didnt cover profit by now, I think they could potentially go underwater and get their stoplosses squeezed, creating more momentum and buy side liquidity above todays HOD.
3:15PM. I just got trail stopped out of my runners. Another amazing trading day. I covered a majority at the 1D VWAP Upperband in this trade as well. Volume isnt currently expanding to the upside, so im not sure liquidity towards the upside will continue to be swept in this current trading session.
But there is definitely a massive confluence correlation for a high probability trade when the deviation moving averages are in synch with the upper or lower bands. I dont have as much data on the band correlating with the upperband at the moment, compared to the lowerband, but so far, they are hitting well.
I have bascially removed my 1st deviation moving average ever since I was stopped out the other day in the overnight on the H12 trend shift. I would like to develop a rule set this weekend on how and when each moving average comes into play, compared to specific market contexts, and when to take trades like I did today, against the predominant trend, and what signals I gave that resulted in a win. Because although I didnt have a counter trend trade plabooked yet, I felt there was alot of confluences today to take the counter trend trade. My job now is to just define it.
Had i not taken a counter trend trade and still waited for my A+ that is data backed and with the trend, it still would have resulted in a lowerband to upperband trade, for about 150-160 points.
