3D Bearish Trend Shift 50% ,
9:30 Short,
Balanced Price Acceptance Moving Average ,
LIS (Bearish),
LIS Reversal,
Lowerband to Upperband Fail,
M15 Confirmation for 3D 50% Fib Retracement Setup,
New Month Candle,
New Quarter Candle,
pre market low dropout,
Reset of VWAP Settings,
Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:
1. Loss Management & Position Sizing:
- You lost twice the daily loss limit, which means you need to reduce risk. You will not trade tomorrow, and you're restricted to one contract until you recover the $500 drawdown.
2. VWAP Settings Error:
- The new monthly candle open reset your VWAP settings, leading to false signals, which caused significant losses. This was a crucial mistake that you recognize as preventable.
- Solution: You must never trust VWAP settings on a new monthly or quarterly candle open without marking prior month's key levels to avoid misreads in the future.
3. Bias and Executional Errors:
- You entered the session with a neutral bias but ignored key technical analysis cues (buy/sell ovals) that could have clarified market direction earlier. Waiting for these signals to break would have helped avoid losses.
- Trading based on a Turtle Soup setup at the premarket low, instead of recognizing the larger liquidity drawdown happening, also resulted in a significant loss.
4. Discipline & Emotional Impact:
- You let previous trades (where support repeatedly held) influence your decision-making, which affected your objectivity when entering today's trades.
- Trading while tired (from staying up for the overnight session the day before) likely impaired your ability to react properly to the session's setups.
5. Failure to Adhere to Key Rules:
- You didn’t wait until 10 AM to trade, violating your own rule, which would have likely reduced losses.
- Not following through on your rule to consult the 5-minute chart when VWAP settings reset also led to multiple smaller losses (on the 1-minute chart) that compounded into a bigger loss.
6. Pre-Market Observations:
- Pre-market price action suggested the overnight low break should have been seen as a signal for the bearish move, not a liquidity sweep opportunity. Missing this transition from range-bound to trending structure was a key mistake.
- The 9:30 AM move, which occurred before the expected data release, was unusual and caught you off guard, but this underscores the importance of adhering to your predefined levels and biases, regardless of timing.
7. Execution Issues:
- Slippage and rejected orders during the data release added to your losses, with an extra $50-$80 incurred unnecessarily.
8. Lesson for Future Monthly/Quarterly Openings:
- Plan ahead by marking upper and lower bands from the prior month’s price action before a new monthly or quarterly candle opens. This will give you a better gauge of where price action is heading, rather than relying on fresh VWAP indicators alone.
9. Improved Use of Timeframes:
- The importance of incorporating higher timeframes (5-minute chart or higher) during new month VWAP resets is emphasized. This would have resulted in fewer trades and reduced losses.
10. Actionable Adjustments:
- You must ensure that similar execution errors and misinterpretations don't happen again. This includes sticking to your trading rules, adjusting VWAP settings, and being more disciplined about your execution around critical times like data releases.
Summary of Key Adjustments:
- Reduce position size and risk until you recover drawdown.
- Avoid trading on the open of a new month or quarter without proper key levels marked from the prior period.
- Stick to your time-based rules (e.g., wait until 10 AM to trade).
- Use higher timeframes (like the 5-minute chart) when VWAP settings reset.
- Avoid overnight trading if it leads to exhaustion during the main session.
These takeaways highlight the importance of strict rule adherence, better preparation for significant market changes (like monthly opens), and reducing execution errors to avoid repeating similar costly mistakes.
* I have to note the observation that when the market opened at 9:30 today, there was a slight imbalance to the draw on liquidity that was very slight, because today, the sell off took place from a balanced price range at the daily moving average and draw on liquidity, I have to note this rule for future reference that once the iblance is filled to the moving average and draw on liquidity, price has a likely probability to reverse, no matter how big or small the price imbalance is.
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You lost 2 times the daily loss limit, therefor you will not be trading tomorrow. You also are not allowed to trade more than 1 contract until you compleley cover the 500 drawdown compared to you max loss limit because of this.
Today we were faked out, due to false signals from our lowerband from our VWAP settings, due to the fact that the new monthly candle open, reset all of our VWAP settings. And this is a crucial mistake and error we can never make again in the future.
This could have been avoided by simply having listened to the buy and sell ovals I had positioned in my technical analysis from the overnight session. I came into this trading session with a neutral bias for the day, and in all honesty, I just had to wait for one of the ovals to be knocked out of position to understand the bias for the trading day.
I will say, its very unfortunate that this type of move couldnt have happened yesterday when. I was positioned, constant invisible buyers and support stepping up at the pre market low Over and Over and Over again, yet today, when I attempt to take a turtle soup setup of the premarket low, after thinking that there would be a move back up after overnight longs were taken out of position, I suffered my biggest loss in a while.
I think its also bullshit, that when I was positoned for this type of drop yesterday, the premarket low was bought up over 5 times and then rallied into the close. THEN, because I was exausted from staying up all night, trading the overnight session, I didnt want to trade this overnight session, which has now positioned shorts for this massive drop
I must stop these big losses in incur once a month. From monthly levels, monthly candles ect. This was also the open of a new quarterly candle. and I also didnt listen to my rule that I should wait until 10AM to trade.
Never trust the VWAP settings on a new monthly candle open ever again.
Either way, its likelt we wouldnt have caught this trade because of course its a 9:30AM move, BEFORE DATA, which is also strange. But the trade of the dau setup at this current moment, was a sell stop order at the premarket low, for when overnight longs were knocked out of position, rather then try to play a liquidity sweep, turtle soup setup after they were swept.
Price was showcasing that bulls were in the trade of the day setup in the overnight from the premarket low to premarket high. So this quite literally was the last bullish attempt and run up from these price levels.
I let the concept of an 'easy money trade' with my upper and lowerbands block my thought process on the overall draw on liquidity taking place in the market. I should have been well aware that because we are starting a new quarter and month, that the sweep would begin to the downside before the upside.
This is also the first time in a very long time, that I have seen a pre market low dropout like this. Which shifted the structure from rangebound, to trend.
I also should have listened to the 5 minute chart, instead of the 1 minute, since the VWAP month settings were fresh, and I have incorporated the 5 minute chart with the Month VWAP from the prior month. Had I listened to 5 minute price action instead, I would have been sized lighter, and likely only have taken 1 loss, instead of multiple shorter timeframe papercuts that resulted in way bigger loss on the day then I should have.
Also, many executional errors on the day, like selling market into the 10 am data, which somehow resulted in a loss, when I was under the impression I sold seconds earlier than the data, and thought I was chipping away at some of the morning loss, but it resulted in an etra 50-80 dollar loss, complete garbage. I was getting rejected on certain orders I was placing, and the final market exit had alot of slippage, creating a bigger loss. SO OVERALL, this entire day was a complete shit show, mis read direction, executional errors, unlucky between yesterday and todays sessions, and how price action was delivered. But now we have something to refer to at the start of the next month, and quarterly candles.
Another thing we can do to avoid this type of loss again in the future, is that prior to each new monthly candle opening, we can mark the most important upper and lowerband levels from the month prior, to really gauge where price may be delivered, instead of relying on the new VWAP each month.
The new Month VWAP, can also apply to ALL TIMEFRAMES, from 1 hour and below, since the 1 hour chart factors in a month of price action.
ALL OF THESE MISTAKES AND ISSUES CAN NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN.
