Bullish Premarket, FOMC Day, Long Flip Trade, long flip trade off opening move, price action trading, uptrend,

Refined Trade Entry Notes

Trade Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Status: CLOSED
• Portfolio(s): APEX PA ACCOUNT 50K
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 31, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Long
• Pattern(s): Bullish Premarket, FOMC Day, Long Flip Trade, Long Flip Trade Off Opening Move, Price Action Trading, Uptrend

Notes

9:02 AM:

• NASDAQ V-shaped recovery of over 450 points from yesterday's drop.
• Yesterday's drop led to a $600 loss.
• Currently hovering at the top of the 1D Week VWAP.
• Uncertain about a trade due to mixed signals across charts.
• Decision to trade only with a confirmed trend and taking it slow.

10:06 AM:

• Took a loss off the open and flipped the trade to long.
• Observing price movement, with VWAP expanding to the upside on the 1D VWAP.
• Top band sitting at 19511.50.
• 30D high to low Fibonacci 38.2% level at 19588, which is the main target for this long.
• Good risk/reward to the upside if the 9:30 AM low on the M5 candle holds for the session.

Reasoning for the Flip Trade:

• Analyzed mistakes from the previous day, particularly the inability to give up bias.
• Noticed that flipping the trade upon initial invalidation on M5 could have allowed riding the trend of the day.
• Adapted to market conditions by flipping the trade.
• Following today's H12 LIS trend, unlike the previous day.
• Despite being at the top of the range, anticipated a squeeze on shorts as longs were affected yesterday.

Chart Patterns:

• M5, M15, and M30 charts all failed off the open but were reclaimed.
• Long add was a repeat of the pattern, with an average price between the first and second long trades.
• Stopped out breakeven by a manipulation move right before FOMC.

Key Takeaways

1. Market Observation:

   • Acknowledge significant market moves, such as the 450-point V-shaped recovery.
   • Be aware of current VWAP positions and significant Fibonacci levels.

2. Trade Adaptation:

   • Analyze and learn from previous trading mistakes.
   • Be willing to flip trades when initial bias is invalidated.
   • Follow the dominant trend (e.g., H12 LIS trend) to align with market conditions.

3. Entry and Exit Criteria:

   • Enter trades based on reclaimed failed patterns on multiple timeframes (M5, M15, M30).
   • Use VWAP bands and Fibonacci levels to determine potential targets and risk/reward scenarios.
   • Maintain flexibility in trading strategy, especially on volatile days like FOMC days.

4. Emotional Management:

   • Avoid being emotionally influenced by previous losses.
   • Focus on the current market conditions and adapt strategies accordingly.

5. Risk Management:

   • Ensure appropriate position sizing.
   • Be prepared to adjust trading strategies and targets based on evolving market conditions.

By following these refined notes and key takeaways, you can enhance your trading strategies and decision-making processes, improving your ability to adapt to changing market conditions and minimize losses.

 

 

 

 

9:02AM. Well, somehow the NASDAQ has managed to V shape over 450 points from yesterdays drop, which actually pisses me off, because yesterdays drop was meaningless, and I got robbed of $600 dollars. But, once again, we are hovering at the top of the 1D Week VWAP, and im really unsure of a trade at this point. Im going to have to take it slow. Im really thinking I wont trade until I have a confirmed trend. And there is mized signals across charts.

10:06AM: I took a loss off of the open and simply flipped the trade, sitting in it right now just watching price. Currently VWAP expaning to the upside on the 1D VWAP. Top band is sitting at 19511.50. And the 30D high to low fibonacci 38.2% is sitting at 19588, which is my main target on this long. Would be very good risk reward to the upside if the 9:30 low off of the M5 candle holds for the session.

I decided to do a flip trade because yesterday when I was analyzing where I went wrong, with the inability to give up my bias, I noticed had I flipped when I was first ivalidated on M5, I could have rode the trend of the day. So im simply just trying to adapt to conditions. I also went against yesterdays H12 LIS trend, today Im going with it. Its an uncomfortable long being im at the complete top of the range, but I feel they are going to suqeeze shorts today, as the fked longs yesterday. 

The M5, M15 & M30 charts all failed off of the open & were reclaimed, so the long add I took was a repeat of that pattern, and my average price was in between my first and second long trades, where I was stopped out breakeven by a manipulation move right before FOMC.