10D 30M Bearish Orderblock Short, 20D 1 Hour , 5 minute (No Drawdown Entry), M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation,

Here are the key takeaways from your trading notes:

1. Adapting Strategy:

   • You've moved away from relying heavily on VWAP bands, which were previously your "easy money" setups, and are now focusing more on fine-tuning support and resistance levels on lower timeframes and unswept liquidity areas for precise entries.
   • You've been forward-testing an "Orderblock VWAP" strategy, focusing on swing highs or lows and the interaction between contradicting trends across timeframes.

2. Improvement and Wins:

   • Although your win rate is below average, you’ve achieved back-to-back winning days, signaling progress and positive momentum.
   • You've reached 4 out of 5 necessary $200 winning days needed for your first payout, showing discipline and focus on a key milestone.

3. Market Conditions:

   • The October market has been challenging, but you're staying optimistic and focused on making your first payout by being more selective with trades.
   • You are now aiming to lower your trade volume by only taking A+ setups, refining your entries to ensure higher-quality trades.

4. Risk Management:

   • You are adapting your risk management approach by halving your profit target and taking mean reversion trades instead of targeting lower VWAP bands, which haven’t been playing out in the current market conditions.
   • You're aware of how wide stop losses can get, particularly noting that if they exceed 10% of the average true range (ATR) of the asset, you should avoid the trade for tighter risk management.

5. Lessons Learned from Papercuts:

   • After experiencing several small losses ("papercuts") on the 2-minute chart, you’ve learned that following the "next highest timeframe rule" (e.g., re-entering based on the 5-minute chart) might help mitigate overtrading.
   • You also observed that higher timeframes like the 5-minute chart, in alignment with 30-minute and 1-hour order blocks, offered cleaner entries with no drawdown in this case.

6. Focus on Price Action:

   • You've shifted from indicators to analyzing price action with a "fine-tooth comb" to identify extremities and order block areas.
   • You're emphasizing the importance of unswept liquidity and are becoming more comfortable with price action as a primary tool for identifying entry points.

In summary, you are gradually refining your approach by becoming more selective, reducing reliance on VWAP, using multi-timeframe analysis for cleaner entries, and improving risk management. Your forward-testing of the Orderblock VWAP strategy and awareness of stop-loss width are helping mitigate overtrading, positioning you closer to consistent success.

 

 

 

 

I took multiple papercuts before eventually hitting the short side trade that worked.

I decided to trade on the 2 minute chart today, and kept a consistent focus on really fine tuning the true support and resistance areas on the lower timeframes for more precise entries.

So far, although my win rate is still below average, I have been to stack up my first back to back winning days. So its a step back in the right direction. 

Since I havent been able to rely on the VWAP bands as I have in the past, with my easy money setups. I have had to really dig through the price action with a fine tooth comb and decipher the extremities to trade off of. 

Overall, this market in October has been extrememly difficult, but Im staying optimistic that I can turn it around and get my first ever payout.

I have now completed 4/5 $200 dollar winning days needed in order to get my first payout. So for now, I am going to continue staying extrememly selective with my trades so that I can lower my trading volume and only take what I see as A+ trading setups.

I also cut todays profit target in half, and took the cover at the mean reversion area, rather than targeting the lowerband, since those trades havent been playing out.

So now instead of relying on the VWAP and bands as I have the prior month, Im mostly solely relying on support and resistance thats identified through price action, and unswept liquidity areas from orderblocks.

Again, I am still continuing to forward test this Orderblock VWAP, where I fine tune the extremities in price, trying to locate the best possible price I can find where I can mitigate risk near swing highs or lows that are holding contradicting trends throughout different timeframes throughout the daily charts. 

And I am also noticing, that upon taking multiple papercuts on the 2 minute chart today, I was going to trade the next highest timeframe rule, and only re enter if I see a trade on the 5 minute, and Im now noticing in hindsight, that the bullish to bearish variation that was presented on the 5 minute chart, off of the 30 minute and 1 hour bearish orderblocks, protecting the 10 day and 20 day swing high, was a no drawdown entry from the 5 minute chart. It seems that the next highest timeframe rule is one of the only things I can potentially follow to mitigate overtrading and taking more papercuts than I should be. The only thing is I have to be very aware of how wide the stoplosses are, because if they are more than 10% of the average true range for the asset that im trading, than I should disregard the trade and wait for a way to enter with tighter risk management. 

 

9:30 Open Print Retest/Rejection, Accidental Limit Order Filled, DOL Lower, Executional Error, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Supply Retest Short, Moving Average DOL Lower, Premarket High to Premarket Low, Quad Witching, Triple Witching, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband, VWAP Upperband to Lowerband (Short),

I caught an upperband to lowerband short, as I came into this trading session looking for an 'easy money trade'.

I was stop hunted on the first move, and immediately re entered on the second variation, with slightly bigger size, because the stoploss was tighter. 

I hit my first take profit, and had a lower takeprofit on my second partial, but unfortunately was wicked out, trail stopping on the 5 minute chart, and as Im typing this now, it is almost at my second take profit for my partial. 

It is what it is, I guess I could have just left the second partial with a stopout at breakeven instead, but I really wasnt interested in doing that because I wanted to at least make over 100 dollars today. What really messed me up a little bit was the first stopout, because I likely would have just covered 2 contracts on the first take profit, but because I was barely up on the day after covering a partial from the first initial loss, I wanted to let the second trade run, and if it came back to breakeven, woulda been a pretty crap trading day profit wise, so... read price correctly, just got unlucky on the trail stop grab. 

 

I accidentally left a fucking limit order at my second tp and it filled me long and I got destroyed on the position and gave back over 100 dollars. So fucking annoying. 

M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Details: July 16, 2024

• Status: Closed
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 16, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • VWAP Upperband Short
  • VWAP Upperband to Lowerband

Notes:

Today's Trade Setup and Observations:

• No Trade Day:

  • Slept in late due to lack of response from APEX regarding trading issues.
  • Missed trading opportunities as a result.

• Trade of the Day Setup:

  • VWAP Analysis:
    • Today's setup was a straightforward VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short on the M1 timeframe.
    • The 2 Day Anchored VWAP did not present any extremes for a short entry.
  • Insights:
    • Plan to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines for identifying high probability trade entries.
    • Recognized the importance of being prepared and at the computer early, especially before significant data drops.

Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):

1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

   • Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.

2. Entry Criteria:

   • Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
   • Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations and VWAP bands for precise entry points.

3. Stop Loss and Targets:

   • Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
   • Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands or prior significant levels (Daily Open, Previous High/Low).

4. Execution Strategy:

   • Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
   • Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.

5. Data Collection and Analysis:

   • Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
   • Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.

6. Avoid Overtrading:

   • If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

7. Premarket Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
   • Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.

8. Mental Preparedness:

   • If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
   • Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.

9. VWAP Tracking:

   • Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.

 

 

 

 

Another no trade day, I slept in late because I never got an early response from APEX on the inability to trade. And although its likely made me miss alot of opportunity this week, I will be at the computer early tomorrow before data.

With that being said, todays trade of the day was a simple VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short off of the 1 Day M1 timeframe. The 2 Day Anchored VWAP didnt provide any extremitiy to either of the bands to short. 

But, this week has provided some insight, that it will likely be smart to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines in the future for high probability trade entries. 

 

8:30 DATA, 9:30 Open Retest Short, All Bullish SIgnal, All Time Highs, CPI, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Trail Stop, Playbook , Pre Market Open Short, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Short, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Analysis of July 11, 2024

Key Points:

• Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
• Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
• Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
• Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Discipline and Routine:

   • Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
   • Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.

2. Missed Opportunities:

   • While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
   • Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.

3. Trade of the Day Analysis:

   • Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
   • Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.

4. Risk Management:

   • Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
   • Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy

Playbook Development

1. Setup Identification:

   • Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
   • Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.

2. Execution Guidelines:

   • Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
   • Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.

3. Review and Adapt:

   • Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
   • Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.

Checklist for Future Trades

1. Preparation:

   • Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
   • Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.

2. Execution:

   • Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
   • Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.

3. Reflection:

   • Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
   • Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.

By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.

I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.

Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.

One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.

 

2nd ATH short attempt, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, immediate stopout, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 red bar trail stop, Missed Target, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Analysis for July 10, 2024

Trade Details:

• Type: Short
• Pattern(s):
  • 2nd ATH short attempt
  • Immediate stopout
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • M1 red bar trail stop
  • Missed Target
  • VWAP Upperband short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Context and Analysis:

• Trade Execution: Attempted a short position following the 2nd attempt at ATH (All-Time High), leveraging various technical patterns for entry.
• Patterns Identified:
  • 2nd ATH short attempt: Capitalized on a potential reversal pattern after failing to break ATH.
  • Immediate stopout: Likely triggered by volatility or quick reversal against the anticipated direction.
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation: Signal of shift from bullish to bearish sentiment on M1 timeframe.
  • M1 red bar trail stop: Used a trailing stop strategy based on M1 bar movements.
  • Missed Target: Potential failure to reach anticipated target due to market dynamics or premature exit.
  • VWAP Upperband short: Positioned entry based on VWAP Upperband indicating potential resistance.
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband: Expected move from VWAP Upperband to Lowerband as confirmation of downtrend continuation.

Analysis and Insights:

• Execution Timing: Attempted to capitalize on reversal patterns near ATH, using technical signals for entry.
• Outcome: Immediate stopout suggests volatility or reversal against the anticipated direction, leading to a small gain.
• Pattern Utilization: Integrated multiple patterns to identify short opportunities aligned with market conditions.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Learning from Immediate Stopout:

   • Evaluate reasons for immediate stopouts to refine entry criteria and avoid false signals.
   • Consider adjusting timing or confirmation signals to reduce premature exits.

2. Pattern Validation:

   • Continuously validate patterns across different timeframes to confirm trade setups.
   • Refine playbook with setups that consistently align with market behavior and trend confirmations.

3. Risk Management:

   • Enhance risk management strategies to mitigate losses during volatile market conditions.
   • Implement trailing stops or adjust position sizing based on pattern reliability and market volatility.

Conclusion

This trade analysis underscores the importance of integrating multiple patterns and technical indicators into a cohesive trading strategy while emphasizing disciplined risk management. Continue to evaluate trade outcomes to refine your playbook and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first short attempt I tried was on prior data suggesting that the 2nd ATH break should provide the HOD from where we could drop. After this first short trade, I could have avoided it by waiting for a test of the VWAP Upperband.

I now know that the VWAP upperband, is a more important factor than the amount of times that the ATH breaks.

And Upperband VWAP test, with an M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation provided a high probability, consistent trade setup thus far. And from the setups I have witnessed, once an extreme on the bands has been hit, it appears that a full move to the other exremity is likely from the point of entry

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Getting a solid entry on the second short opportunity at the M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation setup off of the VWAP Upperband

- Trailstopping half position on the first initial pump back up, allowing me to capture a bit more downside

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Taking profit on the trade too early, without reaching the bottom band as a profit target on the highest R/R short entry opportunity of the day

Just as my prior trade today, I need to develop a trail stopping strategy to help me capture the dominant move in the future, and for now my theory is to test different timeframes based on entries to find which one captures the most amount of profit on average