Key Confluences for Today's and Yesterday's Counter-Trend Trades:
Liquidity Sweep Confluence:
Both trades were executed following a draw on liquidity, which was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance, signaling potential reversals.
First Deviation Moving Average:
The 9:30 AM session showed a sharp move up into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up a short trade. However, this moving average has shown to be less reliable, often providing false signals, especially in the premarket, where it can trigger stopouts.
Premarket Considerations:
In the premarket, the first deviation moving average signaled a potential stopout, suggesting that the downside move might extend to the second deviation moving average, which aligns better with the trend.
Data-Driven Context:
The prior day's inactivity due to data release suggested a high probability setup for the upperband to lowerband trade. Today's setup echoed similar conditions with bearish orderblocks and liquidity sweeps.
Bearish Orderblocks & Liquidity Context:
Today's daily draw on liquidity was situated between multiple bearish orderblocks (H12, H6, H4). However, the initial losses could have been avoided by recognizing that these orderblocks had been "swept," weakening their reliability as resistance.
Imbalance & Entry Signals:
A significant imbalance above today's 1D 1M upperband, coupled with a full-body close below the upperband, provided a clear short entry signal.
Trustworthiness of Resistance Levels:
The loss in the first trade could have been avoided by identifying the swept H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, indicating that the resistance level might no longer be strong, especially in a counter-trend scenario.
Seller Presence After Liquidity Sweep:
The rejection after the buy-side liquidity was swept implied strong seller presence, reinforcing the short bias.
Precise Entry Timing:
The 1-minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no-drawdown entry points, highlighting the importance of precise timing in executing trades.
Intention for Tomorrow:
Given these confluences, your focus should be on:
Trusting the Confluences: Prioritize entries where multiple confluences align, especially after a liquidity sweep in conjunction with strong imbalances or key moving averages.
Identifying Swept Levels: Pay close attention to swept orderblocks and liquidity levels, recognizing that their strength may be diminished, particularly in counter-trend trades.
Refining Entry Precision: Continue to focus on precise entry timing, using 1-minute closes below key levels as a signal to minimize drawdown and maximize the probability of success.
Confluences for today and yesterdays counter trend trade:
* Draw on Liquidity was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance
* The first deviation moving average provided a 9:30 rip up, into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up the short side trade
* The first deviation moving average has shown false signals either in the premarket, displaying a stopout trade, which invalidates it. Leaving more downside room to the second deviation moving average.
* We had data on the day prior, because no trade opportunity was presented, and the trade of the day setup was an upperband to lowerband trade.
* Todays daily draw on liquidity was in between multiple bearish orderblocks. (H12/H6 & H4)
* There was a massive imbalance with the move above todays 1d 1m upperband, with a full body close below the upperband giving an entry signal
* We could have avoided the first loss by marking the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks as (swept), signaling that the resistance level might now have been as strong and trustworthy. Especially because it was counter trend. To play counter trend, which is already less probability, the least we can do is use un swept liquidity.
* Buy side liquidity was swept and (rejected) implying that sellers are present.
* 1 minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no drawdown entries.
Refined Summary of Today's Trading Session:
1. Morning Trade Reflection:
Trade Execution: Took a long trade against the predominant trend, expecting a similar setup to yesterday's VWAP upperband to lowerband short on the 1D 1M chart. The trade failed.
Reasoning: Entered off the 1st moving average and 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence with a 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry.
Observation: Recognized the potential manipulation due to upcoming data releases at 10:30 AM and FOMC minutes at 2 PM. Considered that the overnight session might have weakened the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, which were retested to the tick, leading to the failure of this trade.
Lesson: Avoid boredom trading; the loss was minimal compared to recent gains. The primary desired entry was off the 2nd moving average, which wasn’t presented.
2. Mid-Morning Short Trade:
Trade Execution: Entered a short trade after a sweep of Daily draw on liquidity, leveraging H12 and H2 bearish orderblocks, and 1D 1M VWAP upperband confluence on the M1 chart. It was a quick trade against the predominant trend.
Observation: The lack of volume expansion on the 1D VWAP suggested a range day, prompting the decision to trade against the extremity.
Lesson: Need to develop a ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, particularly when identifying liquidity sweeps during different sessions (e.g., 9:30 AM vs. overnight).
3. A+ Setup Execution:
Trade Execution: Took an A+ setup long trade off the 2nd moving average after missing the exact entry due to a walk. The trade was confirmed by an M15 reaction off an M15 orderblock aligned with the ‘Line In The Sand.’
Management: Partial profit taken at the 1D 1M VWAP upperband, with the plan to let the rest run through the day's high. The trade was based on expected momentum from potential short squeezes.
Outcome: The trade was successfully managed, trailing out the runners with significant profit.
4. Afternoon Reflection:
Observation: Noticed a strong confluence when the deviation moving averages align with the upper or lower bands, leading to high probability trades. However, current volume wasn’t expanding, signaling potential exhaustion in upward liquidity sweeps.
Action Plan: Removed the 1st deviation moving average due to previous failures and decided to focus on developing a ruleset for utilizing moving averages in specific market contexts. Emphasis on defining counter-trend trade setups with clear confluences, as identified in today's trades.
Key Takeaways & Action Points:
Avoid Boredom Trading: Ensure that trades are only taken when high-confidence setups are present. Losses can be minimized by sticking to well-defined setups.
Data-Backed Trading: Wait for A+ setups that are aligned with the trend and backed by historical data. Be cautious when entering counter-trend trades without a solid plan.
Confluence of Indicators: Recognize the importance of multiple confluences (e.g., deviation moving averages, VWAP bands, orderblocks) in identifying high-probability trades.
Counter-Trend Ruleset Development: Create a detailed ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, including the conditions under which they are justified and how to manage them effectively.
Market Context Analysis: Continuously compare and analyze price action relationships between different sessions (e.g., overnight vs. 9:30 AM) to refine trading decisions.
Post-Trade Review: Consistently review and journal trades, focusing on why they succeeded or failed. Use these insights to adapt and improve trading strategies.
Next Steps:
Develop a Counter-Trend Trading Ruleset: Define the criteria for taking counter-trend trades, focusing on confluences and specific signals that validate such trades.
Refine Moving Average Usage: Establish rules for when and how to use each moving average in various market contexts.
Continue Data Collection: Gather more data on the correlation between VWAP bands and moving averages to enhance the robustness of your setups.
Commit to A+ Setups: Prioritize waiting for A+ setups that align with the trend, and avoid taking trades out of impatience or boredom.
10:21AM. Took a long trade knowingly against the predominant trend. Fully aware. Thought it would follow the same setup yesterday where the 9:30 session would provide a upperband to lowerband vwap short on the 1D 1M chart. But it failed.
It appears currently that the trade was taken off of the 1st moving average and the 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence. 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry. But data is yet to come out, we have it at 10:30 & FOMC minutes at 2PM. Its likely that my short stop could have been manipulated.
The main entry I want is the one from 2 days ago which is a long off of the 2nd moving average.
When the day is finished I will do a journaling session on why the first trade failed. Not only was the setup presented yesterday, but the uppband was also in confluence with the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks. It could have been that they were not as strong because they were retested to the tick in the overnight session. And the trade of the day setup in the overnight was a red oval at the retest area, so that basically displayed that shorts were knocked out of postion at that retest, so the loss definitely could have been avoided. I think it a bit of boredom trading because I didnt take one yesterday. But the loss was very minimal compared to the profits Ive been gaining. Ill take one more trade on the day at my ultimate desired entry point. If its not presented, Ill pass up and do a journal session to try to adapt to this market context.
11:10 AM, caufht a short trade after the sweep of a Daily draw on liquidity and from an H12 and H2 bearish orderblock and 1D 1M Upperband VWAP confluence short. I traded it on the M1 chart and it was a failry quick trade against the predominant trend. And the reason for this is becausew the volume isnt expanding on the 1D VWAP. Its signaling more of a range day, so I decided to play against the extremity.
Im going to have to develop a ruleset that allows me to take trades against the predominant trend. One thing to note is that todays draw on liquidity was swept in the 9:30 session, and not in the overnight, so Im going to have to define the relationships between today and yesterdays price action.
12:18PM I took my A+ setup here, I missed the exact entry because I went on a walk, so I just marketed Long, and as Im typing this we just got M15 reaction confirmation off of the M15 orderblock set from the Line In The Sand. The real entry was a 1 Minute close back above the 2nd moving average, after the percieved manipulation sweep and stophunt of longs on the session. I currently have a partial to be taken off at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband around 19940. And I plan to let the rest run through todays HOD, as there is likely alot of fomo shorts from the earlier move, and if they didnt cover profit by now, I think they could potentially go underwater and get their stoplosses squeezed, creating more momentum and buy side liquidity above todays HOD.
3:15PM. I just got trail stopped out of my runners. Another amazing trading day. I covered a majority at the 1D VWAP Upperband in this trade as well. Volume isnt currently expanding to the upside, so im not sure liquidity towards the upside will continue to be swept in this current trading session.
But there is definitely a massive confluence correlation for a high probability trade when the deviation moving averages are in synch with the upper or lower bands. I dont have as much data on the band correlating with the upperband at the moment, compared to the lowerband, but so far, they are hitting well.
I have bascially removed my 1st deviation moving average ever since I was stopped out the other day in the overnight on the H12 trend shift. I would like to develop a rule set this weekend on how and when each moving average comes into play, compared to specific market contexts, and when to take trades like I did today, against the predominant trend, and what signals I gave that resulted in a win. Because although I didnt have a counter trend trade plabooked yet, I felt there was alot of confluences today to take the counter trend trade. My job now is to just define it.
Had i not taken a counter trend trade and still waited for my A+ that is data backed and with the trend, it still would have resulted in a lowerband to upperband trade, for about 150-160 points.
Line in the Sand Identification: Successfully identified the critical price level, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance.'
Adapting to Market Conditions: After being stopped out, you were able to pivot and take a trade in the opposite direction, showing flexibility.
Stop Loss Management: Properly placed and adhered to stop losses, maintaining discipline in risk management.
Recognizing Trade Signals: Understanding the importance of the initial trend shift (A side setup) and how subsequent retests (B, C, etc.) weaken the setup.
Areas for Improvement
Morning Routine: Waking up past your alarm again is a recurring issue. This needs to be addressed to ensure you're prepared for the trading day.
Entry Quality: Took low probability trades away from desired entry points, which led to unnecessary losses.
Position Sizing: Took on too heavy of a contract size, going against your position size calculator recommendations.
Trade Execution: Placing a limit order short against session open volume instead of using a buy stop to flip the trade thesis was a mistake.
Trade Management: Covered the trade too early, missing out on potential profits. Could have managed the trade better by taking off partial positions and leaving runners.
Data Awareness: Not marking data drops on candles led to misinterpretations of market movements.
Key Takeaways
Default Timeframe Execution: The distinction between H4, H6, and H12 trends shows the need for a clear execution model. Default timeframes seem to offer better clarity for entries.
Trend Confirmation: The initial trend break (A setup) is stronger, and retests (B, C, etc.) become progressively weaker. This insight should guide your trade selections.
Data Marking: Marking data drops on candles is crucial to understand market reactions and avoid misinterpreting moves.
Action Plan
Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:
Improve your alarm setup, possibly using multiple alarms or a more disruptive alarm system to ensure you wake up on time.
Ensure you're getting adequate rest to avoid oversleeping.
Refine Entry Strategy:
Stick to high probability entries near desired levels.
Use buy/sell stops to enter trades rather than limit orders against session volume.
Position Sizing Discipline:
Strictly adhere to the position size calculator to avoid taking on excessive risk.
If a trade requires a heavier size, ensure it's justified by a higher probability setup.
Data Awareness:
Mark data release times on your charts to anticipate potential market reactions.
Adjust your strategy based on these data points to avoid getting caught in unexpected moves.
Example Day Plan
Morning Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release, preferably 2 hours before market open.
Perform your premarket analysis, marking key data release times on your charts.
Market Analysis:
Identify the prevailing trend using H4 and H6 for precise entries, while using H12 for overall market context.
Focus on A side setups for higher probability trades.
Trading Session:
Execute trades based on high probability entries near desired levels, using buy/sell stops.
Adhere to position size limits and manage trades by taking partial profits and leaving runners.
By addressing these areas for improvement and refining your strategy based on these insights, you'll enhance your trading performance and maintain discipline. Keep up the diligent journaling and continuous refinement of your approach.
I ended up breakeven on the day with 3 loser and 1 winner. I did many things wrong today.
(THINGS DONE WRONG)
1. Waking up past my alarm again. Unnaceptable
2. Taking 2 low probability first trades that were away from my desired entry.
3. Taking too heavy of contract size according to my position size calculator
4. Putting a limit order short at the potential support turned resistance against session open volume, when could have placed a buy stop and flipped my trade thesis
5. Covering the trade far too early, just to break even on the day. I could have taken off 2 contracts of the 3 I had, and left 1 runner.
6. Taking 2 irrelevant trades.
7. Not marking the DATA drops on candles.
TELLS that trade would flip
- According to Lance B, the A side of each trade setup is upon the inital trend shift, with each retest become less and less strong of a setup. SO, the initial trend break would be considered the 'A' setup, the break and retest would be considered the 'B' setup, and any retests after that would become C/D etc.
- Upon this initial bearish trend shift on the H4 and H6 charts, The H12, Daily, Weekly ETC still had bullish trending higher lows and higher higher on their candles, my thought process was that, because the H4 and H6 candles shifted bearish, there would be a chance that we can trade into the prior 12 hour low as that would be the bearish draw on liquidity from the H6 bearish trend shift.
- ALSO, I had made the destinction that it would likely have been smarter to implement a 'Default Timeframe' execution model, which means that the H4 trend shift should have provided a daily low draw on liquidity for bears, but because the prior H12 low was never retested for a bearish draw on liquidity, that means that it was a significant contributing factor for todays bullish continuation to the upside. The best thing to do will be to track data on this, and adjust as we go along, because although yesterday the H12 trend happened later in the session, with lower R/R return from the point of entry, it still ended up higher than where the initial entry trigger suggest, closing higher than the point of entry on the day. SO, while it may not provide the best R/R potential from the point of confirmation, it still may insist on a higher probability in terms of directional bias.
This H4 low break and trap also took place yesterday (July 2nd 2024) and had the exact same setup, which is most regarded as the 'Turtle Soup' Setup or a 'Potential Support Turned Resistance', The only difference was that yesterday was an H12 potential bearish trend shift, and that meant it could have swept the prior daily low as a liquidity draw.
Its also very clear that upon the 9:30 session open, the DATA released at 8:15 & 8:30 had been immediately reversed and bought up, so I think it will be beneficial to mark out these data drops on the candle OPEN in the future
(THINGS I DID RIGHT)
- Properly identifying where the 'line in the sand' was OTD, which was the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance'
- Cutting the limit order I had short at the 'Potential Support Turned Resistance' at the correct stoploss of the H6 candle high at that time.
- Taking a trade in the other direction from which I was initially stopped out of
- Placing the correct stoploss on the trade at the 'Line in the sand' OTD on the 2nd trade and sticking to it.
BOTTOM LINE, that line in the sand was the most likely price to be tested upon session open BECAUSE, it would have been the best area for shorts to stab at the trade for a continuation through the lows, and confirmation if broken and held above the the longs.
SO IN THE FUTURE, 'Define the A SIDE SETUP, for the LINE IN THE SAND, on each days trading session
If we took the correct play on todays trading session, we could have profited almost $300 and avoided 2 pointless losses.
Self-Discipline: Opting not to trade after waking up late shows strong self-discipline. Recognizing when you're not in the best state to trade can prevent unnecessary losses.
Reflection: You took the time to analyze the missed opportunity and drew valuable insights from it.
Strategy Insight: Identified that default timeframes provided a better R/R trading opportunity compared to custom timeframes.
Areas for Improvement
Morning Routine: Waking up on time is crucial, especially on days with significant data releases. Ensure your alarm setup is reliable and consider setting multiple alarms if necessary.
Key Takeaways
Adaptability: Understanding that default timeframes may offer better R/R opportunities is valuable. Adjusting your strategy to capitalize on these insights will enhance your trading performance.
Trend Confirmation: Recognizing the importance of H4 timeframe in play while also understanding the role of H6 and H12 for overall market context shows your growing analytical skills.
Action Plan
Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:
Set multiple alarms and place your alarm device at a distance to ensure you wake up on time.
Consider going to bed earlier on trading days with important data releases.
Default Timeframe Focus:
Shift your focus to executing trades on default timeframes for better R/R.
Use H6 and H12 timeframes for overall market context and direction but prioritize H1 and H4 for entry points.
Consistent Review:
Continue to review and analyze missed opportunities. This helps you stay prepared for future similar scenarios.
Keep refining your strategy based on these insights.
Example Day Plan
Morning Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release (preferably 2 hours before market open).
Perform your premarket analysis, focusing on default timeframes.
Market Analysis:
Identify the prevailing trend using H6 and H12 for market context.
Look for high R/R opportunities using H1 and H4 for precise entries.
Trading Session:
Execute trades based on your refined strategy, prioritizing default timeframes.
Avoid trading if you miss your morning routine to maintain discipline.
By incorporating these insights and adjustments, you can enhance your trading performance and stay disciplined in your approach. Keep up the good work with your journaling and continuous improvement.
NO TRADE DAY for me.
I woke up at 10:45, slept past my alarm, and I dont think Im going to take any trades on the day, because I missed the best opportunity.
Instead, I will post a picture of the long opportunity presented OTD, that happened just prior to the 9:30 data release on inflation
This trade was basically immediately ITM and experienced almost no drawdown upon entry.
THINGS DONE WRONG
- Woke up late (Should be up at least 1 hour in the future prior to data releases)
THINGS DONE CORRECT
- Deciding not to take any trades on the day after waking up late
One thing that I noticed on this trade is that the default timeframes provided a higher R/R trading opportunity compared to my custom timeframes in terms on trend.
The H4 timeframe was the timeframe in play, and had I waited for H6 and H12 confirmation, I would have got a significantly lower R/R for the trade.
With that being said, I think that H6 & H12 can be used in specific scenarios for overall market context and direction, but I am starting to think that once I have reference from the H6 & H12 charts, to look for the lowest timeframe entries for the draw on liquidity.
I am really enjoying this candle high/candle low & trend trading strategy, its very simple, and seems to be performing well conceptually.
STRATEGY TWEEKS
* ENTRIES WILL ONLY BE PERFORMED ON DEFAULT TIMEFRAMES TO CAPTURE BIGGER R/R TRADES.
Identified Liquidity and Trend: You correctly identified the draw on liquidity and the bearish trend shift on the 2-hour timeframe.
Entry Execution: Entered the trade without emotional involvement once you got the H2 low break confirmation.
Risk Management: Set a stop loss at the 2-hour bar high, allowing for some drawdown without getting stopped out prematurely.
Trade Patience: Let the trade play out even during drawdown, which is a significant aspect of disciplined trading.
Position Sizing: Used the correct position size to manage risk effectively.
Market Preparation: Woke up early to get a solid read on the market, showing dedication to your premarket routine.
Areas for Improvement
Risk/Reward Optimization: Consider tighter R/R by taking H1 candle low breaks instead of H2. This could provide higher rewards with manageable risk.
Trade Management: You could have managed the trade longer using a 2-minute chart/trail stop, potentially increasing your profit.
Platform Synchronization: Address the lag between TOS and Tradovate to ensure better trade management.
Key Takeaways
Adaptation: While you made a conservative choice to lock in early profit, reviewing this decision helps refine your strategy for future trades.
Continuous Improvement: Your self-reflection and journaling demonstrate a commitment to continuous improvement, which is crucial for long-term success.
Strategy Refinement: Considering the use of default timeframes only for trading executions can streamline your approach and provide more consistent results.
Action Plan
Fine-Tune Entry Strategy: Experiment with H1 candle low breaks for a tighter risk/reward profile. Track and compare results with H2 breaks to determine which works better for your strategy.
Improve Trade Management: Implement a trailing stop strategy on the M2 chart for managing trades. Practice this approach in a simulated environment to build confidence.
Platform Synchronization: Investigate the lag issue between TOS and Tradovate. Ensure both platforms are synchronized to avoid premature exits or missed opportunities.
Review and Reflect: Continue your daily journaling and review sessions. Focus on both successful trades and areas for improvement to refine your strategy continuously.
By implementing these steps, you can enhance your trading strategy, manage risk more effectively, and potentially achieve better results. Keep up the disciplined approach and continuous learning.
I have a photo of the actual trade that I took, but the tags were based on the 'Trade Of The Day' Long Setup
Refer back to this in the future.
I took this trade at 9:15 in the premarket when I seen the shift in trend on a multi timeframe perspective/with a bearish trend shift on the 2 hour. I figured the draw on liquidity would most likely aim for the daily low(PML) that was created for the 9:30 session. I set my stoploss at the 2 hour bar high to give myself some wiggle room, which turned out to be a good option, because the trade did put me in some drawtime from the time of entry, and had I made my stoploss any tighter, I most likely would have been stopped out. The trade netted me around a 1.3R, which was fine for me, as it was my first trade on this evaluation, and I just wanted to lock in a winning trade nice and early, break the ice for this account, and start the evaluation off on a good note. My plan is to stay consistent with daily journaling and fine tuning the strategy. Being the best trader I can be is about the work done after hours, not during trading session which is only used to execute. As im journaling this trade, I am noticing that there was definitely a strong signal that I couldve held the trade longer, as its continuing to flush lower, but I didnt want to deal with any green to red trades, and I also only had 1 contract. Had I gone in with 2, I likely would still be in the trade as its still continuing to drop.
I could have got better R/R had I taken the candle low break of the H1 candle instead of the H2, but I guess it was just slightly higher confirmation. Although, maybe in the future we will implement default timeframes only for trading executions. Maybe with a bit more data we will make the adjustment, for now, we will stick to all timeframes including custom.
Also, there was a slight lag between by TOS and Tradovate accounts, which also caused me to have to cover the trade earlier than I wanted. Had it been perfectly synched, I likely would have caught a way bigger move by managing the trail stop on the 2 minute chart.
(THINGS WE COULD HAVE DONE BETTER)
I could have got tighter risk/reward with an H1 bar low break rather than an H2 break.
I could have stayed in the trade a bit longer by managing the trade on the M2 chart/trailstop
(THINGS I DID WELL)
Locating the correct draw on liquidity (Daily PML, 1D and 2D Low, Bearish Trend Shift)
Executing the trade once I got H2 low break confirmation without emotion involved ( I felt a bit hesitant )
Waking up early to get a solid read on the market (7:30 AM)
Letting the trade play out (Not cutting trade early) while in drawdown
Correct sizing (Allowed me to stay in trade & weather the drawdown)
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*Results are not typical and will vary from person to person.
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