4D 5M WEEK VWAP Upperband Extremity,
H1 Bearish Orderblock,
H1 Bullish to Bearish Variation,
H6 Bearish Trend,
LIS Target (Bearish),
Lower DOL,
M5 Bearish Confirmation Close ,
M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation,
Positioned Shorts Key Level,
For some reason, this journal isnt letting me manually tag the trading patterns for todays setup, so I will type them below vvv
(PATTERNS)
- 4D 5M WEEK VWAP Upperband Extremity
- M5 Bearish Confirmation Close Level Marked for 'Positioned Shorts)
- M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation Price Action (REACTION) at key level of interest (Same Timeframe)
- Bearish Tape on Time & Sales at key level (Above 10 contracts)
- Overnight H1 Bearish Orderblock & H1 Price Action REACTION response, validating the M5 Bearish Confirmation Close Level
- Weak Pre Market Low
- Lower Draw On Liquidity
- H6 Premarket Bearish Trend Shift
- Trend Below 1D VWAP Lowerband
Trade Analysis and Summary:
Key Points from the Notes:
Analysis:
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Pre-Market Preparation:
- Thorough preparation by analyzing multiple timeframes and potential trade setups.
- Clear identification of key levels and order blocks.
- Integration of a new trading rule to avoid invalid trades.
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Data Interpretation:
- Correctly interpreted jobless claims data as bearish, influencing the decision to lean towards short trades.
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Trade Execution:
- First Trade: Identified manipulation and quickly adapted by re-entering with a better setup.
- Second Trade: Followed all criteria for an A+ trade, including confirmation on the same timeframe and trailing the trade to lock in profits.
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Risk Management:
- Effective use of stop losses based on recent swing highs.
- Managed to keep losses minimal on the first trade and maximize gains on the second.
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Outcome and Reflection:
- Overall successful trading day with a solid profit.
- Identified the reasons for success, including proper analysis, following the new rule, and waiting for confirmations.
Conclusion:
Combining the Data Drops:
- Jobless Claims: Bearish due to higher-than-expected claims, indicating potential labor market weakness.
- Productivity and Costs: Bullish due to significant productivity gains and lower unit labor costs, indicating economic strength and controlled inflation.
Net Outlook:
- Despite the bearish jobless claims data, the productivity and costs data provide a stronger positive outlook. This suggests an overall bullish sentiment, particularly in terms of economic growth and inflation control.
Trade Reflection:
- The successful trade execution against the H12 LIS worked due to multiple confluences and adherence to the new rule.
- This trade likely represented the "Trade of the Day" due to its alignment with identified setups and successful execution.
By combining thorough pre-market analysis, disciplined execution, and effective risk management, you were able to capitalize on the day's trading opportunities successfully.
8:06 AM. Woke up early this morning. We have some data dropping in a half hour, also 9:45 & 10AM data as well. The overnight is mixed. Coming a few ticks away from an H1 ODB I market out yesterday, and never came back to tag it. I would prefer if the level was actually hit to play it. Sometime I feel like when levels are barely touched like that, they can act as manipulations to play the opposite way. So if Im going to contemplate going short OTD, I think it will be best for the current PMH (which is ticks away from the first H1 ODB) & of many other bearish ODB's, to be swept so that the liquidity can first be cleared.
We are also in an H12 uptrend, and the LIS currently sits at 19344.25. Because of the other days new rule implementation, I began drawing uptapped supply and demand levels near the LIS. And the only one that remains at this moment, is an untapped M1 demand area right above the LIS.
This is also the first day of a new month. August 1st, so the new monthly candle opens today, and the prior month was able to maintain a slightly bullish trend, with a higher high and higher low. Also, holding at the untapped Month Bullish Orderblock, which lined up in confluence with the 90D low to high 61.8% fibonacci.
On the 4D 5 Minute chart, WEEK VWAP. It is currently giving us a sell signal at the top of the range and Upper Band. Theres a chance that the sell signal has already been first because the 4D 5Minute chart Upperband has been sold into and closed below. Prior to a slight trend above. But the trade idea I like most at the moment is a sweep of the PMH, to tap into the untested bearish orderblocks, and wait for the timeframe confirmation & reaction.
***** NEW RULE *****
If the A side of a setup & reaction of a trade, goes past the level of interest from the highest high, or lowest low (depending on if its a short trade or long trade) than the setup is invalidated.
For example; If Im looking for a short trade at a key level, and that specific level requires an H1 entry confirmation & reaction, but the H1 chart continues trending higher, past the key level of interest, if an H1 bar is created with low that is ABOVE the key level of interest, than the trade is invalidated. The H1 low MUST maintain below the key level of interest, to signal a price action response that there is actual selling pressure stepping in to keep the bar below the level. And if the bullish to bearish variation takes place, creating an A side setup, on the right side of the ^, than that is multiple confirmations for a trading entry.
8:43 AM: The 8:30 DATA drop (JOBLESS CLAIMS) just came out, with an increase in the overall number of jobless claims, which is a bearish interpretation.
8:54AM. The main trade that I am looking for OTD is a sweep of the PMH, into the untapped M30 Bearish Orderblock, which would be in confluence with an overextending on the 4D 5Minute WEEK VWAP Upperband. The only thing is this thesis goes against the H12 LIS, but the H6 trend has shifted bearish, so I think there is a chance that this can come back to test the LIS.
My gut is telling me that long side plays wont be as easy or feasible OTD, as we are currently trading below the mean of the overnight. Which is currently telling me that bears are in control.
11:12AM. Wonderful, amazing trading day. I ended the day with a total P/L of $419 dollars. As I stated just before this, I had a gut feeling that shorts would play out OTD. It seems that the early 9:30 shorts got too eager, and were squeezed at the PML, although the alert was never triggered below the PML.
When I looked at the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP, I noticed that during the overnight session, we were trading above the VWAP Upperband, suggesting an Overextenstion/Extremity to the upside from yesterdays move. So I decided to market the 'Overnight Short Close M5' level, as it was the first level to close below the Upperband, suggesting that would have been an ideal short entry from the overnight, and also suggesting that shorts were positioned at that exact level of 19631.75. Because of this, I took my time at the opening, simply getting a feel for price action, by marking alerts as the price action developed, from the trend analysis perspective, and draw on liquidity perspective.
I saw at the start of the trading session that the 1D VWAP could have played against the 4D M5 VWAP, because we were trading towards the lowerband, but I took the birds eye view & larger timeframe analysis, and gave it more weight.
The first trade I entered, was stopped out, it felt a bit manipulated, but it cleared the gap to the M5 bearish orderblock that was created from the confirmation move, instead of the confirmation close level, so with a micro mistake, I was stopped out of the first trade, but got in a second time, when the A side setup was still presented at that level, with M5 lows holding below the key level, and getting a bullish to bearish variation A side setup, as my new rule suggests. Stops at the most recent swing high prior to the move, and I took it to the next draw on liquidity which was the M1 demand created off of the LIS.
Today, trading against the LIS happened to work. It was a counter trend trade before the full confirmation, but thats because I had multiple confluence confirmations to trade against it, and back to the daily mean.
11:25AM. As it currently stands, but LIS was broken, creating a technical downtrend unless proven otherwise.
***Overall***
The reasons why this trade worked
- I Identified a macro extremity on the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP
- I saw overnight confirmation of a break and close below the VWAP Upperband
- I marked the close of the M5 candle, in the same timeframe used to spot the trade, as where 'shorts are positioned'
- I waited for the A side setup, and price action confirmation on the same timeframe used to spot the trade
- I followed the trend and indentified the likely area for price to reach towards, whcih was the H12 LIS in confluence with the 4D 5M WEEK VWAP middleband
- Trailed the trade on the same timeframe I entered 'M5" to lock in profits incase of a reversal (which didnt happen)
- Let it hit my take profit
All of this meets the criteria for an A+ trade, and I think I likely hit the 'Trade Of The Day' setup. We will know by the end of the day.
2:14PM. I just noticed, todays win was a major adaptation to the $600 loss from the other day. It wasnt the exact same setup, in terms of opening between the middle and upper VWAP band, but it was a fake break higher with a nasty short opportunity off of a bearish orderblock. Money trades today baby.
