1D VWAP Lowerband Target, 1st Moving Average Failure, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Short, 2nd Moving Average Failure, Bearish Line In The Sand Reversal, Break & Retest of Prior Day Trend Reversal, Daily Chart Reversal, H12 Bearish FVG Liquidity Sweep, H12 Bearish FVG Squeeze, H12 Bearish Orderblock (Short), H6 Bearish Orderblock Short, Line In The Sand (Between 1st & 2nd Moving Averages(, M1 BL/BR Variation Short Entry (, M1 Entry (Close Below 2nd Moving Average, M5 BL/BR Variation Short Entry , Market Reversal, Market Trend Reversal (Break & Retest, Powell, Prior Day Reversal, Turtle Soup,

For tomorrow's trading session, focus on prioritizing 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks for short trades. Ensure that your short setups are well-supported by these orderblocks, rather than relying solely on moving averages. Additionally, validate your short entries with a data-backed playbook to enhance confidence in your strategy. Keep an eye on the overall market trend, especially on higher time frames, to avoid taking trades that conflict with the broader bullish momentum.

 

 

(NOTES) ALSO, we noticed today that the WK SSL area provided a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week LOW level. And this has to be noted in the future when doing technical analysis. Rule - " If a specific timeframe high or low, does not align with that specific candles ACTUAL printed high or low, than that can be an imbalance in price that can be located for a liquidity sweep"

Key Takeaway:

• Liquidity Sweep Insight: The observation that a Weekly Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) area triggered a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week Low highlights a crucial rule for future technical analysis. If a specific timeframe's high or low does not match the actual printed high or low of that candle, it may indicate a price imbalance that could lead to a liquidity sweep. This insight should be incorporated into your analysis to better anticipate potential liquidity movements.

 

 

 

 

Orderblocks and Variations:

1. New Rule on Orderblocks:
   • The 3-bar orderblock pattern, where the 2nd bar wicks above the prior bar and the 3rd bar closes above or below a variation level, is now identified as a false signal if the 2nd bar does not show rapid displacement away from the prior bar.
   • The wick rejection on the 2nd bar indicates continued weakness and reduces the probability of the setup's success.
   • High-probability variations require the 2nd bar to move away with strong displacement.

Market Context and Trend Analysis:

2. Whipsaw Action and Daily Bias Indecision:
   • Daily reversals or indecision in daily bias suggest potential whipsaw action.
   • The 12-hour Line In The Sand (LIS) acts as a VWAP-like area, serving as a central point for larger deviation moves, particularly when the daily trend is unclear or conflicting with weekly/monthly levels.
   • This central role of the 12-hour LIS explains why moving averages fail, as they reflect the larger macro range based on weekly levels.

Trade Review and Insights:

3. Swing Trade and 12-Hour Chart Analysis:
   • The prior swing trade was based on a weekly bearish sell-side liquidity and a bearish variation that failed to displace lower, leading to an anticipated drop that did not occur.
   • The position remained at breakeven, with the recognition that the next 12-hour draw on liquidity might target the stop-loss before presenting a new long opportunity.
   • The current long position is a Turtle Soup entry, suggesting the 12-hour draw on liquidity manipulated prior longs out of their positions.

Important Trading Rule:

4. 12-Hour and Daily Trend Interaction:
   • When the market is trending on the daily chart, 12-hour highs/lows in the direction of the daily trend will be in play, with the 12-hour LIS acting as support/resistance.
   • In contrast, during daily reversals, daily bias indecision, or when interacting with larger timeframe levels (weekly/monthly), the 12-hour LIS will act as a median point and draw on liquidity within a larger macro range on the weekly chart.
   • In such cases, the 12-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) is likely to act as an inverse FVG rather than a continuation FVG.

Documentation and Future Application:

5. Documentation of Larger Timeframe Levels:
   • This observation is crucial for understanding and documenting price action at larger levels, particularly on the weekly chart, where the 12-hour FVG in macro ranges can often act inversely to what is typically expected.

These insights will help refine your trading approach, especially in recognizing and reacting to signals on larger timeframes and understanding the interaction between different timeframes during market indecision or trend reversals.

 

 

We have a new Rule on Orderblocks/Variations & 12 hour chart analysis on weekly levels.

We have consistenly seen 3 bar orderblocks, where the 2nd bar creates a wick above the prior bar, with the 3rd bar closing above or below a varation level.

We now have data backed proof to suggest that this is a false signal, signaling that the wick rejection displays continued weakness, and less probability of the setup working. In order for a variation to hold its high probability success, the 2nd bar should move rapidly away from the prior bar with displacement. 

we have observed that when there are daily reversals, or daily indecision trading actions, and inability to decipher daily bias, its an indication of whipsaw action, and that the H12 LIS will act as a VWAP area and center point for larger deviation moves (weekly&monthly levels), and that it likely why the LIS is in the center of both moving averages, and there is a break of daily trend. And the reason why the moving averages are failing and acting as a centerpoint for a much larger macro rangem based off of weekly levels.

Now yesterday when I entered my swing trade, it was based off of a weely bearish sell side liquidity & bearish variation failure to displace lower. I anticipated that the sell side liquidity would provide a much larger drop. But it didnt. 

My position stayed break even for the remainder of the trading session, and I also noticed that the prior 12 hour bar closed bearish, and I noticed that the next 12 hour draw on liquidity would likely target my stoploss on the long swing trade, take me out, and present another potential opportunity to enter long. 

So the long that I am currently in is a Turtle Soup long entry based off of my prior stoploss, which I think was manipulated on the 12 hour draw on liquidity as a last attempt to knock prior longs out of position. 

If this trade works out, its important to note a very important trading rule that I could be noticing, and that is When the market is trending on the daily, the 12 hour highs or lows, in the direction of the daily trend will be in play, and the line in the sand will act as a support or resistance in that continued direction. BUT, when we are trading against daily reversals, daily bias indecision AND larger timeframe levels such as the weekly or monthly ETC, than the daily chart trend, and 12 hour line in the sand will act as a MEDIAN point and draw on liquidity in a larger macro range on the weekly chart, especially if the 12 hour chart has an FVG. From what i currently have in the price action database, is that its likely that the 12 hour FVG in these larger timeframe ranges on the weekly and monthly, will usually act as an inverse fair value gap (FVG) rather than a continuation FVG. This is very important to document, as we have had troubles reading larger levels on the weekly in the past. And now we finally can journal the price action behind this type of action. 

 

ALSO, we noticed today that the WK SSL area provided a liquidity sweep down to a Prior Week LOW level.

And this has to be noted in the future when doing technical analysis.

Rule - " If a specific timeframe high or low, does not align with that specific candles ACTUAL printed high or low, than that can be an imbalance in price that can be located for a liquidity sweep"

 

 

Here are the key takeaways from your trading session notes:

1. Trade Entry Strategy:

• Took a short position at 9:26 AM based on the first 1-minute close below the 2nd DV MA, aiming to capitalize on a bearish trend reversal (reverse V trade).
• Noted the breach of the Bearish Line In The Sand at 6:41 AM but initially assumed the bearish fair value gap on the 12-hour chart could provide a short opportunity.

1. Market Context and Trend Analysis:

• The trend appeared bearish due to the 2nd DV MA being below the 1st DV MA.
• Despite the bearish indicators, the 12-hour Line In The Sand breach suggested potential liquidity sweep and a continuation of the overall bullish trend observed on the weekly chart.

1. Technical Indicators and Moving Averages:

• Recognized that the weekly chart was still showing higher highs and lows, indicating a bullish overall wave.
• Lacked a data-backed playbook for short trades based on moving averages, assuming short trades would respect the same rules as long trades was not accurate.

1. Orderblock Analysis:

• Noted that recent short trades were more aligned with the 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks, which were defending against bullish liquidity.
• The confluence of the 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks provided a zero drawdown entry with a strong short-side trade opportunity.

1. Entry and Exit Points:

• The best entry during the session was a 1-minute bullish-to-bearish variation short entry following a 6-hour bearish orderblock rejection from the previous day.
• The 1-minute chart was manipulated by the 12-hour bearish orderblock, but the 6-hour bearish orderblock was slightly more advantageous.

1. Trade Outcome and Lessons Learned:

• The 1-minute bullish-to-bearish variation entry provided minimal drawdown and a strong short trade setup, with the profit target aligning with a confluence level between the premarket open print and 1-day VWAP lower band.
• Future short-side trades should focus on 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks and potentially disregard moving averages if they are not aligning with short trade setups.

Summary: For future trading sessions, prioritize 12-hour and 6-hour bearish orderblocks for short trades over moving averages. Validate short setups with a data-backed playbook and consider overall market trends and higher time frame charts to avoid conflicts with broader trends.

 

 

 

I took a short position at 9:26 AM, on the first 1 Minute close below the 2nd DV MA, to play the right side of the reverse V trade, and go with the predominant trend which appeared to be a short biased session, solely because the 2nd DV MA was stacked below the 1st DV MA. One thing I did notice was the breach of the Bearish Line In The Sand at around 6:41 AM, but at this point I though that the bearish fair value gap created on the 12 hour chart, could have potentially provided a short side trade right back down because at this point, the moving averages were not yet claimed. 

 

What I should have noted at this point, was that, although the trend appeared to be on my side, the breach of the 12 Hour Line In The Sand, would have likely swept the liquidity on the 12 hour fair value gap, because although the prior day signaled a daily reversal, the weekly chart, which is a full standard deviation above the daily chart, was still making higher highs and higher lows, so the overall wave was still bullish, and in order to have played against the weekly chart, we would have needed a totally brand new weekly candle to play the bullish to bearish variation against. 

 

I also didnt have a data backed playbook for any moving average short trades. I figured that because the market was heavily respecting the long side moving average trades, that it would likely respect the short side trades, but this was not accurate. 

 

As it stands, the short side trades for the past 2 trading sessions, have been heavily respecting the 12 hour and 6 hour bearish orderblocks. The first short side trade opportunity, was presented from a 12 hour and 6 hour confluence bearish orderblock, which was defending the weekly draw on liquidity from bulls, as a short side stoploss. 

 

The Market Reversal off of this confluence orderblock, was a 2 hour chart bullish to bearish variation entry, from a zero drawdown upojn entry perspective. 

 

And this trading sessions best entry, was a bullish to bearish variation short entry on the 1 minute chart, coming from a 6 hour bearish orderblock rejection from the prior day. 

The 1 minute chart was manipulated and stop hunted from the 12 hour bearish orderblock reaction. So it appears currently, that the H6 bearish orderblock, is slightly advantageous to the 12 hour at the moment. the confluence 12 hour and 6 hour orderblock from the prior day, provided a zero drawdown entry on the first 1 minute close below the confluence level. 

 

this trading session, the 1 minute bullish to bearish variation entry provided minimal drawdown, and a trade of the day setup opportunity for a short side trade. At our desired profit target, which was a confluence level target between the premarket open print and 1 DAY VWAP Lowerband 

 

So for now, we can derive bias off of the moving averages, but if we are going to play a short side setup, we will disregard the moving averages, and focus on the 12 hour and 6 hour bearish orderblocks that are presented for any short side trade opportunities.

Counter Trend Trade, Market Reversal, Trend Reversal ,

Counter-Trend Trade Ruleset

1. Higher Timeframe Analysis

• Orderblock Hierarchy:
  • Ensure that a higher timeframe bearish orderblock is positioned above a lower timeframe bearish orderblock, indicating a potential resistance zone.
  • The 12-hour bearish orderblock should align above the 4-hour orderblock. Confirm that no full body close has occurred above the 12-hour bearish orderblock.
• Wick Rejections:
  • Multiple wick rejections from a significant higher timeframe (e.g., 12-hour) bearish orderblock signal a strong resistance area.
• Weekly Liquidity Sweep:
  • If the weekly draw on liquidity has been swept early in the week, particularly when it’s the third attempt, the probability of further bullish continuation decreases, increasing the potential for a counter-trend move.

2. Price Action & Market Structure

• Line in the Sand:
  • Identify a key support level that, if breached, indicates a higher probability of continuation to the downside. This could be a recent low that has shown consistent reactions but is ultimately broken.
• Failure of Prior Bullish Setups:
  • If a bullish setup (e.g., based on a moving average or orderblock) that has been consistently successful throughout the week fails, it signals a potential shift in market sentiment, favoring a counter-trend trade.
• Overnight Session Clues:
  • If the overnight session provides a significant run-up or rejection (e.g., from the first deviation moving average) without testing key moving averages, it suggests exhaustion and potential for reversal.

3. Entry Signals

• VWAP Rejection:
  • A clear rejection from the 1-day 1-minute VWAP Upperband at the pre-market high, especially when followed by a bearish variation on the 1-minute timeframe, presents a strong short entry signal.
• Price Action Confirmation:
  • Wait for a close below the identified bearish orderblock (e.g., 12-hour) before entering a short position. The first minute close below this level provides the lowest drawdown entry.
• Stop Loss Placement:
  • Place the stop loss slightly above the daily high or above the key orderblock that provided the rejection.

4. Profit Target

• Targeting Lower Orderblocks:
  • Aim to take profits at the next significant bullish orderblock (e.g., prior 12-hour bullish orderblock) that the market is likely to test after a reversal.

Counter-Trend Trade Checklist

1. Pre-Market Preparation:

   • Check for multiple wick rejections on the 12-hour chart from a higher timeframe bearish orderblock.
   • Confirm that no 12-hour candle has closed above the identified bearish orderblock.
   • Verify the position of the weekly draw on liquidity and whether it has been swept.

2. Market Open Analysis:

   • Identify the "Line in the Sand" based on prior key lows or reaction levels.
   • Assess the 9:30 open print relative to the daily draw on liquidity and VWAP bands.

3. Entry Criteria:

   • Wait for a bearish variation on the 1-minute chart following a VWAP rejection.
   • Confirm a close below the 12-hour bearish orderblock before entering the trade.

4. Execution:

   • Enter the trade with a stop loss placed above the daily high or above the 12-hour orderblock.
   • Target the next significant bullish orderblock as a profit-taking level.

5. Post-Trade Review:

   • Review the trade to ensure it followed the established ruleset and checklist.
   • Document any deviations and their impact on the trade outcome.

Key Takeaways for Future Trades

• Prioritize trades where higher timeframe resistance (bearish orderblock) aligns with lower timeframe structures.
• Use wick rejections and failure of bullish setups as early warning signals for potential reversals.
• Place stop losses and profit targets based on well-defined orderblocks to manage risk and maximize reward.

By following this ruleset and checklist, you should be able to identify and execute high-probability counter-trend trades while maintaining your edge in trend-following strategies.

 

 

 

 

1:43PM. I woke up late today, and didnt trade. interestly enough, the market actually had a reversal today, and from looking at the consistent setup ive been taking, it would have actually failed today, so i actually saved myself a loss. 

My goal with todays market reversal, is to try to formulate a theory on how I could have spotted this counter trend trade, and list all of the potential contributing factors to what could have led to this counter trend trade.

I think for the purpose of trying to get as many details as I can, I will start by listing exactly how the price action formulated from the overnight to 9:30 session trading period. The key levels involved, and all of the signals I can list. I will review the chart on the live trading platform, and after I list all of the details of how the price action developed, I will compare and contrast today and yesterdays price action to see if I can find any similarities.

1. Had consistent wick rejections on the 12 hour chart, from the prior bearish orderblock, on this weeks weekly draw on liquidity, which is the stoploss area and buy side liquidity defending the prior 12 hour bearish orderblock, which was also in confluence with the 6 hour orderblock.

2. There was never a full body close of any 12 hour candle above this specific 12 hour bearish orderblock. 

3. The 12 hour bearish orderblock, was above the 4 hour bearish orderblock around the same area, and as our trading rule for orderblocks suggests. 

• Orderblock Alignment for Trade Entries:
  • Short Trades:
    • Higher timeframe order blocks should be positioned above lower timeframe order blocks.

So this was a clear signal that a short trade can be taken from this 12 hour bearish orderblock

4. The weekly draw on liquidity was swept at the start of the week, this was the 3rd weekly draw on liquidity that was being targeted by bulls on the week, which likely made the target less probable of being hit.

5. The potential bullish to bearish variation on the 12 hour chart was presented from the prior 12 hour bullish bar in confluence with consistent wick rejections and failures to close above the bearish 12 hour orderblock.

And our other trading rule suggests 

• Timeframe Correlation:
  • For each order block, wait for the reaction on the corresponding timeframe.
  • Example:
    • For an M30 order block, wait for an M30 reaction.
    • For an M15 order block, wait for a 15-minute reaction.
    • This applies similarly to M5, M1, etc.
  • Enter only when the price action reaction aligns with the order block's timeframe.

This is the exact rule and trade setup that was presented on the 12 Hour Chart.

6. The target from the 12 hour bearish orderblock short, could have been targeting the prior 12 hour bullish orderblock as a take profit level.

7. The line in the sand, was the exact same low as the bullish 12 hour bar, that had shown consistent wick rejections from the 12 hour bearish orderblock it was testing, signaling that if it was breached, there would likely be continuation downside, and a reversal. And also made the line in the sand much less probable of an entry.

 

The exact trade of the day setup that was presented for the 9:30 session was as follows. This is the sequence of price action that took place.

1. The market was squeezing into its pre market high at the 9:30 open, after a run up from a long entry opportunity that was presented in the overnight session from the first deviation moving average. Which could have served as a potential signal that buyers were at the ending of their overnight long trade leading into the 9:30 open. 

2. Our bread an butter setup for the long side trade this week has been the second deviation moving average, and this moving average was never tested in the overnight. That could have been a clear indication that more room to the downside wwas likely in order to even provide longs a setup on the day worth attempting. 

3. The long entry setup provided to longs on todays 9:30 trading session, was at the same exact level, as the draw on liquidity 2 days prior, which was already swept. This could have been another potential indication that it would be a false long signal, with a lower probability of working. 

4. The 9:30 open print was above the days draw on liquidity, which was swept in the overnight trading session, likely signaling that it had less support below, and would reverse at the open. 

5. The 1 day 1 minute VWAP Upperband, was right above the pre market high, as was immediately rejected on the second minute, creating a bullish to bearish variation on the 1 minute timeframe, from the upperband rejection, presenting the short trade of the day setup with stops at the daily high.

6. The stoploss for the short trade of the day setup was around 35-40 Points

7. The lowest drawdown entry provided for shorts on the day, was the entry after the first minute close below the 12 hour bearish orderblock, which was the main rejection level that we were monitoring. 

8. The long setup that was provided all week, which is also a playbook trade, was signaled and stopped out. 

9. The line in the sand was immediately broken, and provided no price action reaction signal in its intended bias, signaling a reversal with further continuation to the downside.

10. The prior bullish 12 hour orderblock, served as a great profit target for the short counter trend trade presented today.

 

I believe that all of these price action signals are currently, the most probable causes for any reason to ever take a counter trend trade.