2nd ATH short attempt, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, immediate stopout, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 red bar trail stop, Missed Target, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Analysis for July 10, 2024

Trade Details:

• Type: Short
• Pattern(s):
  • 2nd ATH short attempt
  • Immediate stopout
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • M1 red bar trail stop
  • Missed Target
  • VWAP Upperband short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Context and Analysis:

• Trade Execution: Attempted a short position following the 2nd attempt at ATH (All-Time High), leveraging various technical patterns for entry.
• Patterns Identified:
  • 2nd ATH short attempt: Capitalized on a potential reversal pattern after failing to break ATH.
  • Immediate stopout: Likely triggered by volatility or quick reversal against the anticipated direction.
  • M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation: Signal of shift from bullish to bearish sentiment on M1 timeframe.
  • M1 red bar trail stop: Used a trailing stop strategy based on M1 bar movements.
  • Missed Target: Potential failure to reach anticipated target due to market dynamics or premature exit.
  • VWAP Upperband short: Positioned entry based on VWAP Upperband indicating potential resistance.
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband: Expected move from VWAP Upperband to Lowerband as confirmation of downtrend continuation.

Analysis and Insights:

• Execution Timing: Attempted to capitalize on reversal patterns near ATH, using technical signals for entry.
• Outcome: Immediate stopout suggests volatility or reversal against the anticipated direction, leading to a small gain.
• Pattern Utilization: Integrated multiple patterns to identify short opportunities aligned with market conditions.

Integration into Playbook Strategy

Key Elements for Playbook Development

1. Learning from Immediate Stopout:

   • Evaluate reasons for immediate stopouts to refine entry criteria and avoid false signals.
   • Consider adjusting timing or confirmation signals to reduce premature exits.

2. Pattern Validation:

   • Continuously validate patterns across different timeframes to confirm trade setups.
   • Refine playbook with setups that consistently align with market behavior and trend confirmations.

3. Risk Management:

   • Enhance risk management strategies to mitigate losses during volatile market conditions.
   • Implement trailing stops or adjust position sizing based on pattern reliability and market volatility.

Conclusion

This trade analysis underscores the importance of integrating multiple patterns and technical indicators into a cohesive trading strategy while emphasizing disciplined risk management. Continue to evaluate trade outcomes to refine your playbook and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first short attempt I tried was on prior data suggesting that the 2nd ATH break should provide the HOD from where we could drop. After this first short trade, I could have avoided it by waiting for a test of the VWAP Upperband.

I now know that the VWAP upperband, is a more important factor than the amount of times that the ATH breaks.

And Upperband VWAP test, with an M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation provided a high probability, consistent trade setup thus far. And from the setups I have witnessed, once an extreme on the bands has been hit, it appears that a full move to the other exremity is likely from the point of entry

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Getting a solid entry on the second short opportunity at the M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation setup off of the VWAP Upperband

- Trailstopping half position on the first initial pump back up, allowing me to capture a bit more downside

 

(Things I did wrong)

- Taking profit on the trade too early, without reaching the bottom band as a profit target on the highest R/R short entry opportunity of the day

Just as my prior trade today, I need to develop a trail stopping strategy to help me capture the dominant move in the future, and for now my theory is to test different timeframes based on entries to find which one captures the most amount of profit on average

78.6% Fibonacci Long, All Time Highs, ATH failure, Bullish Pre Market, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H2 TrailStop, H4 Bearish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, M1 green bar trail stop, Mean reversion , Mean Reversion Long, Missed Target, Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib, vwap bounce,

Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:

Insights from Your Trade

1. Early Preparation:

   • Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.

2. Utilizing Premarket Analysis:

   • Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.

3. Trade Execution on M1 Chart:

   • Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.

4. Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):

   • Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.

5. Stop Loss Management:

   • Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.

Recommendations for Refinement

1. Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:

   • Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.

2. Partial Profit Taking:

   • Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.

3. Journal and Analyze:

   • Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.

4. Review and Adjust Post-Session:

   • Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.

During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.

Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.

So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.

I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.

Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.

Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points. 

 

(What I Did Right)

- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open

- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket

- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend

 

(What I Did Wrong)

- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early) 

Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven