H12 Bullish Turtle Soup, Moving Average Long,

Here are the key takeaways from today's trading notes:

1. Missed Initial Data, but Adapted Quickly: You started the day late and missed the initial data but quickly adapted by observing market behavior.

2. 9:30 Session Analysis:

   • The session opened with a break below the H12 Bullish LIS (Level of Interest), but the strong upward momentum kept your moving average strategy valid.
   • You decided not to short the H12 LIS break due to conflicting signals from your moving average, favoring a continuation of the trend instead.

3. Trend-Following Focus: Your primary strategy is trend-following, and you are incorporating multiple timeframes (1-minute, 2-minute, and 5-minute charts) to refine your entries and exits.

4. Added Indicator:

   • Introduced a 2nd standard deviation moving average to identify maximum reversal points.
   • The recent H12 Bullish Turtle Soup setup (on 8/14 during the CPI release) reached this 2nd deviation moving average, which you are using to gauge supply and demand and adjust your bias.

5. Trade Execution:

   • Went long when the price closed above the 1380 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 1-minute chart, which was also above the prior H12 Bullish LIS.
   • Adjusted stop-loss strategy to be tighter based on pivot lows rather than session lows to manage risk more effectively.

6. Profit-Taking:

   • Took profit at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband due to insufficient volume expansion towards the expected weekly liquidity draw.

7. Bias and Trend Management:

   • Your trading bias is determined by the overall trend and LIS levels. Significant breaches in these indicators would influence a change in bias.

8. Strategy Effectiveness: Your current strategy has been working well, contributing to a successful week of trading.

This summary highlights your approach to adapting strategies, managing risk, and adjusting based on market conditions and new indicators.

 

 

I woke up late, missed the data, but quickly spotted the way the market was trading.

At this point, the 9:30 session opened with a break below the H12 Bullish LIS, but the momentum was still so strong to the upside, that my moving average held true to the play of the day setup. Up until this point I havent been able to collect any data on the H12 trend shift, vs a contradicting moving average signal telling me not to short H12 LIS break, but long the continuation of the trend. But as my edge, I am primarily focused on trend following trading strategy building. 

I also decided to add a 2nd standard deviation moving average as a maximum reversal point. And the last H12 Bullish Turtle Soup setup that we had was on the CPI release on 8/14. And at that point, it extended all the way to the second deviation moving average (blue line). So I think between 1 and 2 deviation moving average lines, I should be able to have a clear understanding of supply and demand and quickly formulating my bias on each trading day. 

I went long at a close above the moving average from the 1 minute chart 1380 exponential moving average, which was also in confulence with a wick hold back above the prior H12 Bullish LIS. And I initally had my stops at the session low of day, but I think it would be a good adoption to my strategy to manage risk at the tightest stoploss areas based on the 2 timeframes that I am using for entries such as the 1 minute 2 minute and 5 minute charts. I set my stoploss at the pivot low of the displacement move up above the moving average, as I didnt want to risk as much money at the session low or pre market low. And I took profit at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband. Because volume just wasnt really expanding to the upside towards the weekly draw on liquidity like I expected. 

I think its now safe to say that my bias on the trading day cannot be influenced unless all factors point to a directional change, meaning all trends and LIS levels have been breached completely. 

So far, this strategy seems to be working very well, and it was a great week of trading. 

10D 30M Month VWAP, 5D 5M Month VWAP , H12 Bullish LIS, Moving Average Long, Overnight Gap Above Moving Average, PPI,

Key Takeaways from Trading Notes

 

The Swing Trade Worked Perfectly.

 

1. Overnight Gap and Moving Average Deception:

   • The market gapped up overnight, misleading traders who were short from the prior close below the moving average.
   • This created a deceptive trading environment with a close test of the moving average, but it fell short, leading to a cautious stance on taking long trades.

2. Pre-Market Liquidity and Bias:

   • The daily liquidity draw was swept in the premarket, but the continuation to higher levels was unexpected.
   • Short bias was maintained due to this premarket activity, though it was evident that the market was pushing higher.

3. Impact of Economic Data Releases:

   • Data points released at 6 AM and 8:30 AM influenced market movements significantly.
   • The 6 AM data led to a dip to the moving average, presenting a potential long opportunity that was missed.
   • Anticipation of 8:30 AM data led to a preemptive rally, indicating potential insider trading or pre-planned moves.

4. Mistake in Trade Execution:

   • The decision to short at the 5D 5M Month VWAP was based on incorrect signals and missed the optimal long entry opportunity.
   • The market moved against the short position, which was contrary to the signals indicating a bullish trend.

5. Trend Analysis and Signal Alignment:

   • The H6 and H12 candles were trending higher, but a macro reversal attempt was made against the trend.
   • Multiple bullish signals (moving average cross, data point holds, premarket strength, etc.) were ignored in favor of a reversal play.

6. Timeframe and VWAP Bands:

   • Trading the 5D 5M Month VWAP upper band proved to be an inaccurate choice.
   • With 9 trading days from the Month VWAP, a higher timeframe (10D 30M chart) should have been used for better alignment with macro deviations.
   • Future trades should adjust to the appropriate timeframe based on the number of trading days.

7. Lesson and Adaptation:

   • Mistakes were made, but understanding and adapting to these errors is crucial for improving the trading system.
   • Focus should be on refining strategies to avoid similar losing trades and aligning better with market signals.

 

Summary

The trading session revealed several key lessons, including the importance of aligning trades with prevailing trends and macro signals, adapting to appropriate timeframes, and adjusting strategies based on economic data and market behavior. Future trading should incorporate these insights to minimize mistakes and capitalize on clearer signals.

 

 

 

Today I got faked out short, against the overnight gap above the moving average, which decieved short into the close on the prior day, because it actually closed below the moving average. So it was a very sneaky gap up, with a very close test of the moving average on overnight open, but it came up just short, and still had some liquidity left, so I didnt want to take the long at that moment. I was also short biased because the daily draw on liquidity was swept in the premarket, I was unaware at this point that it would continue to reach higher. 

Then we had 2 data points drop, one at 6AM, and PPI at 8:30. From the 6AM data, it flushed down to the moving average which presented the long opportunity of the day. But at this point, we were still trending below the open of the 6AM data, so I didnt want to rush.

I found it quite interesting that the market started ripping higher in anticipation to the 8:30 data. It did feel quite sketchy, almost as if insiders already had the move pre planned. But, both data openings held from the release of PPI. This is why I should not have shorted at the 5D 5M Month VWAP. It gave me the complete wrong signal, and I only took the trade because it was the trade presented to me, since I missed the trade of the day opportunity in the premarket. It was very difficult to have got in an entry on the 9:30 open. At that moment, it felt like you were chasing the market. So the real players got this market long in the premarket before the data release. This goes to show why its importnat to wake up and catch every data piece so that you dont miss any macro moves.

Also, the H6 and H12 candles were clearly trending higher, yet I didnt follow the trend, I attempted to play a macro reversal in the market off of the 5D 5M Month VWAP Upperband. And todays price action absolutely blew right through. 

I basically went against every signal that was clearly giving me a long entry. Between the overnight gap above the moving average, the long moving average cross over signal with a bullish bias. A bullish H12 LIS and H6 trend, the hold of 2 data points which opening prints were never even retested, a bullish premarket and a 9:30 open hold to clear right through the upside liquidity, I think its safe to say that these were many signals in opposition to me, when I was simply just playing an upperband reversal. 

I guess that the moving average bias, line in the sand, and overall flow of the market holds more weight than the macro bands.

ALSO, this may have been the complete innacurate band to have even traded. So far we have traded a total of 9 days from the opening of the Month VWAP, so I really should have been on the 10D 30M chart instead. So now we know in the future, that we have to play the macro deviational VWAP bands when trading outside of the multi day range. More trading days than the timeframe im watching, means I have to go to the next greatest timeframe deviation. 

Mistakes were made on the session. But as long as we adapt to them and refine out trading system, we should be able to slowly chip away at pointless losing trades. 

 

I was just able to locate todays top on the market, and market reversal. I forgot to mark the fibonacci levels from swing points, and todays market reversal in the morning and mid day, both came from the 50% retracement level from the 30D high to low. I have to keep these macro levels in mind when trading.