Timeframe Correlation: Observations indicate a strong correlation between the 15-minute (M15) entries and 2-hour (H2) orderblock (ODB) management. This correlation suggests that the M15 chart’s reaction to the H2 ODB is a crucial factor in identifying high-probability trades.
Orderblock Validity: When an orderblock is invalidated on a timeframe, it's essential to monitor higher timeframes for potential setups. This is due to the possibility that the trade setup might be occurring on a higher timeframe despite a shorter timeframe's signal.
Timeframe Adjustments: If any timeframe closes above or below a key orderblock level, the trade setup should be reassessed on the next higher timeframe. For instance, a close below an orderblock on M2, M5, and M15 charts might still be valid if the 15-minute chart shows a wick hold.
Secondary Trade Opportunities: The secondary setup observed with the 1-hour wick hold of the 4-hour ODB suggests that multiple timeframe correlations can offer high-risk reward opportunities.
Data Collection: Gathering data on how different timeframes correlate with each other is crucial. The correlation between M15 entries and H2 trends should be tracked, as it often results in high-probability trades.
Market Context: The context of market liquidity and orderblock validity can change based on broader market trends and news events. Adjusting trade decisions based on new data or shifts in market sentiment is essential.
Lessons Learned
Importance of Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Monitoring multiple timeframes is vital. A setup might appear invalid on lower timeframes but could still be valid on higher timeframes.
Dynamic Orderblock Management: Orderblocks should not be considered completely invalid if they are breached on lower timeframes. Higher timeframes may still offer valid setups.
Adaptability: Trade strategies should be adaptable to changing market conditions and data releases. Staying flexible with your approach can improve the accuracy of your entries.
Liquidity and Timeframes: Higher timeframes' liquidity levels should be compared with lower timeframes. In some cases, lower timeframes might have liquidity levels that are above those of higher timeframes.
Things Done Right
Effective Use of Higher Timeframes: Using the H2 ODB and observing its interaction with the M15 chart provided a successful entry strategy.
Recognizing Data Impact: Noting the impact of news releases and adjusting the trading thesis accordingly led to recognizing the bullish sentiment during the 9:30 session.
Entry Timing: The entry based on the M5 chart's reaction after the data drop and subsequent movement was accurate, confirming the trade setup.
Things Done Wrong
Inconsistent Timeframe Monitoring: Initially, not consistently monitoring higher timeframes might have caused missed opportunities or incorrect trade assessments.
Overlooking Liquidity Levels: The observation about the M5 ODB being above higher timeframe levels was not initially incorporated into the trading strategy, possibly leading to confusion about orderblock validity.
New Rules Learned
Canceling Orderblocks: If a timeframe closes above or below a key orderblock level, cancel the orderblock for that timeframe and switch to the next higher timeframe for reassessment.
Data and Market Sentiment: Adjust trading decisions based on new data and market sentiment. If a significant market move occurs, reassess the previous trade thesis.
Timeframe Validity: If an orderblock is invalidated on lower timeframes, validate it on higher timeframes before discarding it entirely.
Entry Confirmation: Always look for confirmation from the timeframe you are trading on, but also consider the interaction with higher timeframes for confirmation.
Key Intention
To enhance trading accuracy, the intention is to focus on:
Gathering Data: Systematically collect data on timeframe correlations, especially between M15 entries and H2 trends.
Adaptive Strategy: Develop a more flexible strategy that accounts for multiple timeframe interactions and market context shifts.
Orderblock Management: Refine the process for determining when an orderblock is invalidated and ensure thorough monitoring across all relevant timeframes.
Key Takeaway: The session appeared bullish because no supply zones were identified near the Line In The Sand (LIS) across multiple timeframes. Specifically, while the M1 order block entry was above the LIS and the M5 supply zone was utilized, higher timeframes (M15, M30, H1, H2, H4, H6, H12) lacked any significant supply areas near the LIS. This absence of supply zones suggested a high probability of the LIS being breached, indicating a potential reversal in the intraday trend bias.
This is a 'Trade Of The Day' setup for August 8th trading day. One of them is the A+ Long setup from the overnight session, and the next is the in session (9:30) trade setup which I traded.
From doing this writeup, I am noticing a couple key takeaways from the trade of the day setup. And that is a different way to interpret this orderblocks.
For one, there has most certainly been a correlation between the M15 entry and the H2 bar for management correlations. Not only from a trend shift and price action entry perspective. but now I am also noticing it here on this screenshot and trading overview. And the perfect entry for the price action reaction off of the H2 ODB (Orderblock) was a 15 minute chart reaction. This is a correlation in this current market context that has been happening over and over again.
Another thing that I am noticing about these orderblocks, is that when I have a specific hard level for an orderblock. I must immediately cancel any timeframe bar that closes below or above my key orderblock level. (If it closes above the level for shorts) (if it closes below the level for longs). The moment that any of those timeframes close below or above my orderblock, I must make a shift to the next highest timeframe and continuously monitor the reaction, because the setup could be taking place on a higher timeframe, and because I havent monitored this in the past, I could likely be missing other timeframe entry models.
(For Example) I usually trade the 2 minute, and 5 minute chart for my entries. But this specific trade setup, took place on the 15 minute chart, and I usually dont monitor for 15 minute entries (only sometimes). But the 2 minute chart closed below this specific H2 orderblock, as well as the 5 minute, as well as the 1 minute etc. But when analyzing the 15 minute chart, the bar wicked off of the H2 orderblock (signaling a hold), turtle souped the prior day low, had a bearish to bullish variation entry model above the prior bar highs, created a slight 15 minute fair value gap, and experienced virtually zero drawdown upon entry, stops at the premarket low (H2 Orderblock & Pre Market Low) for a continuation trend higher throughout the overnight session, into the 9:30 trading session, until it eventually engulfed the entire prior days price action. This specific entry provided massive risk to reward opportunity, all because of the next standard higher timeframe chart signaled a wick hold, when the shorter timeframes suggested a break and close below the level. When we get multiple contributing factors to a high probability trading entry with multiple confluences, our chances of success become greater, as well as our expected value on the trade.
There was also a secondary trade entry opportunity off of the 1 hour wick hold of the 4 hour ODB, as all timeframes up to the 30 minute chart closed below the H4 ODB key level. So between the M15 hold of the H2 ODB, and the H1 hold of the H4 ODB, I am noticing a correlation for a timeframe entry, with a factor of around 4-8 lower for a high risk reward entry.
I will make in a key intention to focus on gathering data for all of the timeframes and how they correlate with eachother. Because again, I am noticing a very high correlation between the 15 minute chart entry models and the 2 hour chart trends. Usually, from what I have noticed, when the first 15 minute chart entry is presented, it usually provides for 1 trading decision (1 trade on the day) and when managed with the 2 hour chart, the trend usually stays intact for the duration of the trading day, without any of the prior 2 hour bar lows being breached. Now, im sure that this is subject to change as market contexts change, so I think it will also be smart to start gathering the data on price action entry model timeframes in play, and trend timeframes in play for trade management once entered.
The reason I only marked the H4 and H2 orderblocks is because the H12 and H6 orderblocks were already (USED), meaning their liquidity has already been tapped into.
Also, when analyzing this chart, I am also aware that from the major market bottom at 17346, there are still multiple timeframes such as H1, M30, M15 & M1 that have not been tapped into. But there is one timeframe that has been used, which is the M5 ODB. This is quite an interesting observation, because the M5 liquidty and timeframe is ABOVE the higher timeframe untapped liquidity such as the H1/M30 and M15 timeframe charts. Usually, when looking for a long entry off of a demand orderblock rather than supply, the lower the timeframe you go, the lower the price of the orderblock should be, because the shorter timeframe suggests a higher risk to reward entry model, yet in this case, the M5 ODB was above the higher timeframes, and the liquidity below the M5 chart was never even tested. (I need to make a note of this observation to see if this is a recurring theme with orderblock setups) (or have chatgpt make it a rule). I am still unsure fully of the timeframe correlations between the lower timeframes, and other notes and journaling sessions in the past have suggested that I should just wait for the same timeframe correlations for entry. (For example) If I am approaching an M15 orderblock, to wait for an M15 price action reaction off of this orderblock would usually suggest confirmation for an entry. But I am going to have to backtest that data vs the data that suggests that just because an orderblock is closed through on shorter timeframes, does not necessarily mean that the orderblock level is invalid, it may simply suggest that the setup is taking place on a higher timeframe. I must figure this out to know the higher probability entry model.
I also have to define when an orderblock is completely canceled, and It could be that if any timeframe such as the same timeframe or higher closes above or below a key orderblock, than that orderblock is cancelled.
I noted an example of a bearish H2 orderblock on the same chart that wasnt tapped into when the market was squeezing higher, and the price action reaction is on the M15 timeframe, and it clearly fails. Mutiple times. This would have given many short signals had we taken the exact same approach, so clearly, this entry model only works under specific market contexts. And by the time it reached this bearish H2 orderblock setup, the line in the sand was already breached on the H12 chart at the 18298 level, which suggests that the daily trend for the day was clearly UP. And the draw on liquidity was targeting the prior day high from the trend shift, because it was the next H12 and daily draw on liquidity higher, therefor invalidating this orderblock setup, and suggesting that all of the levels would be blown through.
Whats most difficult about catching the H2 orderblock setup from the overnight session, was because at this point, the draw on liquidity appeared lower. We had displacement short from the 5D 5M MONTH VWAP, suggesting the next target had a draw on liquidity lower, and the line in the sand was not yet breached, suggesting a move lower. Im actually not sure I would have been able to catch this trade up, because it goes against all of the things I just listed for the bearish H2 orderblock. Whos to say that that trade shouldnt have worked for bears, when it worked for bulls prior? Very difficult analysis overall.
Another indication that the session would likely be bullish, is because when I tried to find a supply areas around the Line In The Sand, I was unable to find any on any timeframes. The M1 orderblock entry provided, was above the LIS. The M5 supply was used. And the M15/ M30/H1/H2/H4/H6 and H12, did NOT have any supply areas to derive from that Line In The Sand, this acted as a clear indication that the Line In The Sand would likely be breached, and intraday trend bias would flip.
(THE 9:30 TRADING SESSION)
During the session that I traded, there were multiple data drops. An 8:30AM drop, a 10AM drop, and a 10:30AM drop. From the moment the jobs report came out, there was a massive rally to the upside, and I had marked the open print from the moment that data was released. Suggesting that, if that low was never breached, then there was likely no reason I should take a short trade, because there was likely a confirmed market sentiment shift towards the upside, rather than the downside.
I think thats a noteworthy point because, during this trading session, the macro draw on liquidity was still suggesting lower prices, and I figured they would be reached in the overnight, but again, there was a bid caught, that turtle souped the prior day low, and held which was what we discussed earlier. But I remember thinking to myself before I went to sleep, that the draw on liquidity appeared to be lower, and that if the market did happen to catch a bid, I should likely reverse my thesis from bearish to bullish in the morning, because I didnt see any reason why that draw on liquidity shouldnt have been reached. So between the overnight bid hold, and the release of the premarket data that spiked up, and was never retested or breached, the long side was clearly the play.
I saw a setup on the 5 minute chart from the 9:30 open, that closed below the 21 ema, and immediately closed back above on the next 5 minute candle, I had a strong gut feeling that was the entry long of the day, and what do you know? thats exactly what it was. The bearish to bullish variation on the M5 chart, stops at the LOD, never breaching the data drop. At this point, from the start of the 9:30 open, the H6, H4, H2 & H1 trends were all trending higher, and as clearly stated in my journal in prior journaling sessions, if the H6 trend reverses against the H12 LIS (Line in the sand) then there is a high possibility that there will be a reversal on the daily candle, and the daily bias and macro trend. The line in the sand also provided a pretty solid long entry opportunity, even as the trend higher was on the overextended side.
Missed a massive supply zone near the H12 LIS (Line in the Sand).
The supply zone ran through M1, M5, M15, and M30 order blocks from the LIS.
Technical Analysis Improvement:
New Rule: Mark untapped supply and demand areas on the H12 lines in the sand, highs, and lows to avoid missing future entries.
Cannot solely rely on VWAP Band extremities or the first VWAP area when the market opens in the middle of nowhere.
Entry Criteria and Strategy Adjustment
Order Block Analysis:
Mark Prevalent Order Blocks: In the direction of the LIS, identify and mark the most relevant order blocks.
Timeframe Correlation:
For each order block, wait for the reaction on the corresponding timeframe.
Example:
For an M30 order block, wait for an M30 reaction.
For an M15 order block, wait for a 15-minute reaction.
This applies similarly to M5, M1, etc.
Enter only when the price action reaction aligns with the order block's timeframe.
Chart Adjustments:
Immediately start marking order blocks on charts to avoid relying solely on VWAP bands.
End of Session Reflection:
The session ended with a bounce from the prior daily order block.
This bounce was in confluence with:
90-day 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Monthly ODB (Order Block).
Fibonacci Confirmation:
90D Model Layout:
Use the 90D Fibonacci with the 180 H4 default timeframe, which encompasses the swing low to high.
Use H4 confirmation to take trades.
By implementing these refined strategies and rules, future trades can be more accurately executed, reducing the likelihood of missing significant market signals and enhancing overall trading performance.
4o
So I had a $600 loss today, and I just had to go over it with a fine tooth comb and see what I missed. And clearly enough, There was a massive supply zone near the H12 LIS that I completely missed, and that ran from the M1, M5, M15 & M30 Orderblocks from the LIS.
So from now on, when I am doing technical analysis. Any H12 lines in the sand, Highs & Lows, I will now mark the untapped Supply & Demand areas, so that I wont miss another entry like the one provided today. Because clearly, I cant just solely rely on the VWAP Band extremities, or the first area of VWAP to play off of first when the market opens in the middle of nowhere.
The rule will be that I will mark the most prevalent orderblocks in the direction of the LIS, but the orderblock timeframe, must correlate with the price action reaction entry model.
So for example, if we have an M30 Orderblock, we wait for the M30 reaction, If we have a M15 Orderblock, we wait for the 15 minute reaction, same applies to the 5M, 1M etc. Any orderblock that we play, must have correlating timeframe price action reaction to enter. I will have to start putting these on my charts immediately so that I dont just solely rely on the bands.
So the session today ended with a bounce of the prior daily orderblock. Also in confluence with the 90D 61.8% fibonacci & Month ODB For this fibonacci confirmation, since I do not yet have a layout for a 90D model, I will use the 90D fibonacci, with the 180 H4 default timeframe, since it is the next timeframe up that encompasses the swing low to high. And I will use an H4 confirmation to take the trade.
Noticed a gap between the prior day close and premarket open, below the 1 Day VWAP lower band, indicating bearish displacement.
Attempted a long position off the next VWAP band which failed, reinforcing a bearish trend shift.
Trade Execution:
Shorted the PML (Pre-Market Low) due to clear stop-loss placement and strong downside pressure.
Anticipated a trend day given the downside action on the weekly chart and the market being in a discount area on multiple timeframes.
Observed zero drawdown from entry, indicating strong downside pressure and a well-timed entry.
10:40 AM:
The market continued making lower lows with no clear downside target due to distant DOL (Draw on Liquidity).
The VWAP and 21 EMA on the M2 chart indicated a consistent downtrend.
Entry experienced no retests, further validating the strength of the position.
12:30 PM:
Closed the trade with a profit of over $500, bringing the account over the $1K mark.
Decision to lock in profits was based on a successful morning session and strong performance.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Effective premarket analysis identified key gaps and trends, leading to a high-probability short setup.
Correctly identified the PML as a strategic entry point with minimal risk.
The trade execution was well-timed with no drawdown, indicating strong market understanding.
Wrong:
Initial hesitation to confirm the bearish trend shift earlier could have improved entry precision.
Outcome: Successfully executed a short trade based on premarket analysis and trend confirmation, resulting in a profit of over $500. The strategy of letting the trade run with stops at session highs proved effective, and the consistent analysis and execution aligned with the identified patterns and signals.
Overall Summary: The trading session was marked by a disciplined approach, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis to confirm a bearish bias. The entry at the PML was well-placed, experiencing no drawdown and indicating strong downside pressure. The decision to lock in profits at $500 was prudent, demonstrating effective trade management and risk control. This trade reinforces the importance of thorough premarket analysis and strategic entry points, contributing to the overall success of the trading session.
10:05 AM. So im currently in a trade, I shorted the PML and its in the money, during the premarket session, I noticed a gap between the prior day close, and the pre market open. And this was under a key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, signaling clear displacement below the key band. I tried a long off of the next VWAP band, and that broke. It was after that loss that I confirmed the shift in direction, when I could have confirmed it after the gap. Also, I could have set an entry where my stop was on the overnight long entry attempt.
The reason I shorted the PML is because it was the only area upon open, that I could see a clear stoploss placement, so I used it as my entry. Im currently not sure how low this is going to drop, as we hit the first wk DOL in the overnight session. But the next day, week, and month lower DOL, is very far away, so I honestly removed a target to the downside, and im just letting it drop. With this type of downside action, on weekly chart moves, these are usually where we get trend days. Also, we are technically in a discount area, on multiple timeframes, so usually when that happens, no one wants to short, because it appears we are low in the range, and also, no one wants to long, because the sellside pressure is so strong, these tend to be the days where everyone just sits on the sidelines and misses big moves.
Another strong signal for this short, was the I went under no drawdown from the time of entry, which signals how strong the downside pressure really is. Im already up 200 points.
Also, a key tell that the downtrend would continue from the gap, is that it also changed the direction of the H12 trend, which is obvously half the amount of time of a full daily candle, so it usually confirms directional bias.
And, on the daily chart, with the prior day close, suggested that the next target higher would be the prior day high wick, and upon the opening of the next day gap, it shifted the daily trend, as the prior day low was broken, and suggested a draw on liquidity at the 2 day prior bar low, near the lower weekly draw on liquidity. And the gap created earlier in the week, off of that chop out 30 day fibonacci trade I took, has been completely absorbed now at the time of writing this.
So overall, this gap between the prior day close and premarket open was a major tell, and can act as displacement to confirm breaks of major levels. It happened at the beginning week gap, claiming the prior month low, which was the turtle soup type of trade that I was looking for.
I think for now I will make a new rule, that if the H12 trend is going against the VWAP Upper or Lowerband Buy Or Sell signals, than I can not take that trade.
My current plan for this trade, is to literally just let it drop for the duration of the trading session. With stops at session HOD, which I dont think will be triggered. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think Im willing to take the bet, as I should be increasing my risk slightly with my journaling data, and because we are now 3 plus weeks into this evaluation. But, the VWAP and the Lowerband are consistenly downtrending, which I take as a continuation sell signal, and massive downside volume.
10:40 AM. Still making lower lows, still no downside target, becuase the next DOL is very far away. Still in a consistent downtrend on the VWAP, and consistently holding below the 21 EMA on M2 chart. The interesting part about my entry, is that not only did it incur zero drawdown, but it also didnt experience any retests of my price. This strongly signals a great entry price.
12:30PM i just got back from a walk. decided to lock it up. im happy with todays profits over $500 dollars. its put my account over the 1K mark
Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).
Future Strategy Adjustments:
Execution Timeframe:
When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.
Execution Data:
More data should suggest the best possible approach.
Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.
Mental Trade:
Mental Long Entry:
Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
The trade wound up failing.
It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.
Setup Classifications:
A Side Setup: Initial move.
B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
C Setup: To be defined in the future.
Action Points:
Higher Timeframe Confirmation:
Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.
Execution Timeframe:
Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.
Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:
If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.
Follow Setup Classifications:
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted'
But here is the trade of the day setup.
For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band.
On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.
So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed.
Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD.
There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)
So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.
Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.
Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
Market Context:
The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.
Things Done Right:
Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.
Things Done Wrong:
Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.
Recommendations and Checklist
Recommendations:
Preparation:
Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.
Trade Management:
Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.
Market Context:
Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.
Review and Adapt:
Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.
Structured Checklist
Before Market Open:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.
Pre-Trade:
Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.
During Trading:
Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.
Post-Trade:
Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.
Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.
Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.
I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.
Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.
There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.
I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented.
Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines
This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided
Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal
Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.
Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.
(Things I Did Right)
- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry
(Things I Did Wrong)
- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)
- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand
- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release
Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.
Recommendations and Learnings
Discipline and Routine:
Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.
Missed Opportunities:
While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.
Trade of the Day Analysis:
Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.
Risk Management:
Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.
Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy
Playbook Development
Setup Identification:
Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.
Execution Guidelines:
Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.
Review and Adapt:
Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.
Checklist for Future Trades
Preparation:
Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.
Execution:
Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.
Reflection:
Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.
By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.
No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.
I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.
Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.
One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.
Fibonacci Level Utilization: Utilized the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from premarket low to ATH failure as a key entry point.
Intraday Analysis: Anticipated and monitored a retest of the premarket open for potential long opportunities.
Playbook Addition: Integrated this setup into your playbook for future reference and monitoring.
M1 Chart Confirmation: Identified buyers at the Fibonacci level on the M1 chart, indicating strong support.
H12 Chart Trend: Noted a bullish trend on the H12 chart, with trendline confirmation supporting the trade entry.
Trade Execution: Noted minimal drawdown if the trade was executed on the M1 chart, followed by significant upside for the rest of the day.
Trailing Stop Strategy: Recognized the potential for a substantial profit (12R) if trailed on the H2 chart, highlighting effective risk management.
Recommendations and Learnings
Utilization of Fibonacci Levels:
Continue to leverage Fibonacci retracement levels for precise entry points and potential support/resistance areas.
Monitor reactions at these levels across multiple timeframes (like M1 for short-term signals and H12 for broader trends).
Playbook Development:
Expand playbook to include setups based on Fibonacci levels and trendline confirmations across various timeframes.
Regularly update and refine playbook entries based on market conditions and historical performance.
Risk Management:
Implement trailing stop strategies effectively, considering both short-term (M1) and longer-term (H2) chart dynamics.
Evaluate potential trade scenarios for maximum risk-reward ratios, aiming for high profitability trades like the observed 12R opportunity.
Market Context Awareness:
Maintain awareness of broader market trends and intraday fluctuations to validate trade setups.
Adapt strategies based on real-time market conditions and adjust entries/exits accordingly.
Integration into Playbook Strategy
Key Elements for Playbook Development
Entry Criteria:
Define clear entry criteria based on Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline confirmations, validated across multiple timeframes.
Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Establish precise levels using strategic points such as Fibonacci retracement levels and trendline breaks, while considering trailing stop strategies.
Execution and Management:
Execute trades promptly based on defined criteria and playbook strategies, ensuring adherence to risk management protocols.
Monitor trade progress and adjust stops or take profits based on real-time market movements.
Conclusion
By integrating these insights into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data and market conditions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy effectively.
Todays trade of the day setup came from the 78.6% fibonacci level from the premarket low to the ATH failure.
During the day, I was anticipating a retest of the pre market open for longs, but now I will add this trade setup to my playbook and monitor reactions at the 78.6% fibonacci on the M1 chart for buyers.
Had this trade been taken off of the M1 chart, the drawdown would have been virtually nothing before it took of to reach new highs for the rest of the day.
Also, on this trading day, the H12 chart was trending higher, and I set a trendline from each bars low, I noticed that it also provided a trade signal for this exact entry today
once it broke below the trendline, it was in the demand area, and as soon at the M1 chart flipped, the trade took off.
Trailing this trade on the H2 chart would have provided a 12R trade, MASSIVE!
Difficulty of the Session: Acknowledge that the trading day was tough, with challenges like being stopped out of a prior long.
Entry Signal: Identified a long entry opportunity around the premarket open (PMO), which coincided with a stop run that turned out to be the low of the day.
Additional Signals: Utilized an M1 TTM squeeze long signal and a test of the lower VWAP band for entry confirmation.
Learnings and Adjustments:
Referring Back to Setups: Recognize the value of documenting and referring back to "Trade of the Day" setups for future trading sessions. This approach helps in anticipating similar setups and improving execution.
Predominant Trend: Reflect on the importance of identifying and following the predominant long bias trend, which was supported by bullish signals from weekly, daily, and H12 charts.
Strategy Adjustment: Plan to adhere closely to the bullish trend premise in upcoming sessions to potentially capitalize on similar setups.
Moving Forward:
Learning from Challenges: Take lessons from the tough trading session to refine strategies and improve decision-making.
Consistency in Approach: Maintain discipline in analyzing and executing trades based on identified setups and trend biases.
Preparation: Continue using historical setups and market analysis to prepare for future trading opportunities effectively.
Trade Of The Day Setup 7/08/2024
Todays trading session was very difficult. I was stopped out of a prior long and that stop run was actually the low around the PMO(premarketopen) where the long of the day entry was provided. I also had other signals like a M1 TTM squeeze long signal, and a test of the lower VWAP band for an entry. So next time this type of trading day/setup is in play, I will use this trade of the day concept to refer back to a likely setup that can play out again in the future.
I could have figured that the predominant trend would still remain long biased due to the fact that the superior trend remained bullish from the weekly, daily and h12 charts. I have to follow this premise tomorrow so that I can bounce back.
Despite sitting out today, consider trading the next session if conditions are favorable.
Acknowledged a good confirmation and hit rate for trend continuation.
Noted that the stop loss was quite distant to make the trade feasible, suggesting potential adjustments in risk management.
Learnings:
Stay vigilant regarding market conditions, especially during holiday weeks.
Continue to refine entry and stop-loss strategies to optimize trade setups.
No Trade Day.
Due to the 4th of July week, market closing early, and noticing a correlation between a multiple day daily open print, I decided it would be best not to take a trade today. Past experiences have shown me that when the Daily Open print carries over the next trading day, I have usually taken a loss.
But after seeing todays trading day, perhaps I will trade the next one, as todays trading setup seemed rather unmanipulated and very straight forward. Actually, presenting a pretty great trend day opportunity.
It was a very simple, Data/PMH/Multiple trend candle shifts for confirmation. The only thing about this trade was that the stoploss was pretty far away to actually make the trade work. But still, great confirmation and hit rate provided for the continuation of the trend.
Self-Discipline: Opting not to trade after waking up late shows strong self-discipline. Recognizing when you're not in the best state to trade can prevent unnecessary losses.
Reflection: You took the time to analyze the missed opportunity and drew valuable insights from it.
Strategy Insight: Identified that default timeframes provided a better R/R trading opportunity compared to custom timeframes.
Areas for Improvement
Morning Routine: Waking up on time is crucial, especially on days with significant data releases. Ensure your alarm setup is reliable and consider setting multiple alarms if necessary.
Key Takeaways
Adaptability: Understanding that default timeframes may offer better R/R opportunities is valuable. Adjusting your strategy to capitalize on these insights will enhance your trading performance.
Trend Confirmation: Recognizing the importance of H4 timeframe in play while also understanding the role of H6 and H12 for overall market context shows your growing analytical skills.
Action Plan
Alarm and Wake-Up Strategy:
Set multiple alarms and place your alarm device at a distance to ensure you wake up on time.
Consider going to bed earlier on trading days with important data releases.
Default Timeframe Focus:
Shift your focus to executing trades on default timeframes for better R/R.
Use H6 and H12 timeframes for overall market context and direction but prioritize H1 and H4 for entry points.
Consistent Review:
Continue to review and analyze missed opportunities. This helps you stay prepared for future similar scenarios.
Keep refining your strategy based on these insights.
Example Day Plan
Morning Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data release (preferably 2 hours before market open).
Perform your premarket analysis, focusing on default timeframes.
Market Analysis:
Identify the prevailing trend using H6 and H12 for market context.
Look for high R/R opportunities using H1 and H4 for precise entries.
Trading Session:
Execute trades based on your refined strategy, prioritizing default timeframes.
Avoid trading if you miss your morning routine to maintain discipline.
By incorporating these insights and adjustments, you can enhance your trading performance and stay disciplined in your approach. Keep up the good work with your journaling and continuous improvement.
NO TRADE DAY for me.
I woke up at 10:45, slept past my alarm, and I dont think Im going to take any trades on the day, because I missed the best opportunity.
Instead, I will post a picture of the long opportunity presented OTD, that happened just prior to the 9:30 data release on inflation
This trade was basically immediately ITM and experienced almost no drawdown upon entry.
THINGS DONE WRONG
- Woke up late (Should be up at least 1 hour in the future prior to data releases)
THINGS DONE CORRECT
- Deciding not to take any trades on the day after waking up late
One thing that I noticed on this trade is that the default timeframes provided a higher R/R trading opportunity compared to my custom timeframes in terms on trend.
The H4 timeframe was the timeframe in play, and had I waited for H6 and H12 confirmation, I would have got a significantly lower R/R for the trade.
With that being said, I think that H6 & H12 can be used in specific scenarios for overall market context and direction, but I am starting to think that once I have reference from the H6 & H12 charts, to look for the lowest timeframe entries for the draw on liquidity.
I am really enjoying this candle high/candle low & trend trading strategy, its very simple, and seems to be performing well conceptually.
STRATEGY TWEEKS
* ENTRIES WILL ONLY BE PERFORMED ON DEFAULT TIMEFRAMES TO CAPTURE BIGGER R/R TRADES.
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