15M Bearish Variation Confirmation, 3D 50% Retracement & H4 ODB Confluence (SHORT), 3D Bearish Trend Shift 50% Retracement Short, 3D Trend Shift/3D 50% FIB Imbalance, 9:30 Open (Short), H4 Bearish Orderblock Short, M1 Supply Zone (15M Variation) Retest Short, PML Short, Trade Of The Day , WK Bullish Orderblock Target,

Your main intention should be to prioritize disciplined risk management and consistency over profit maximization.The goal is to focus on executing your strategy with precision and sticking to your refined trading rules to rebuild confidence and stabilize your account. 

Your primary intention should be to "Trade conservatively and focus on capital preservation." Given your limited drawdown cushion ($750) and recent trading outcomes, your goal is to rebuild confidence and establish a positive trading rhythm by prioritizing discipline, patience, and precision in every decision. Approach the day with the mindset of a risk manager first, trader second.

 

 

 

 

 

Key Takeaways from Your Trading Notes:

1. Acknowledgment of Mistakes

• You recognize that the first week of your funded account was drastically different from your evaluation phase, leading to significant losses.
• The combination of a shift in market conditions at the start of October and potential psychological hurdles seems to have negatively impacted your performance.
• You identify that overtrading and failure to follow your own rules (such as the daily loss limit) were major contributors to your poor performance.

2. Psychological Factors

• You acknowledged self-sabotage and negativity, expecting trades to fail before even taking them, which likely influenced poor decision-making.
• There's an understanding that mindset needs to shift toward positive visualization to manifest success and turn things around.
• You've recognized that keeping a calm, professional mindset and approaching trades with low stress is key to staying in control and making rational decisions.

3. Critical Trading Mistakes

• Breaking the Daily Loss Limit: You repeatedly exceeded your daily loss limit by significant amounts, which was a major factor in the drawdown.
• Overtrading: You moved from 3-4 trades per day (in the evaluation) to 15-20 trades per day after funding, leading to overexposure and losses.
• Not Taking Profits: A major issue was letting winning trades go back into the red, missing the opportunity to lock in profits. The failure to secure $800 in profit on Friday underscores this problem.
• Chasing Unrealized Gains: By aiming for extended targets (e.g., Upper VWAP band) instead of scaling out profits earlier (VWAP target), you lost unrealized gains. Adjusting profit-taking targets could have saved you from significant losses.

4. New Approach and Game Plan

• Reduced Expectations: You’ve set a max daily loss of $75 with a target of $150/day, aiming for small, consistent wins. The goal is to bring the account back to breakeven by making trading "boring" and stress-free.
• Switching to S&P500: Due to NASDAQ's high volatility, you may need to shift to trading the S&P500 for a more stable, less volatile approach.
• Focus on Consistency: Your goal for this week is simply to stay disciplined, follow the loss limit, and consistently hit small targets rather than swinging for large wins. This will help prevent blowing up the account.

5. Technical Adjustments

• Timeframe Correlation: You've introduced a rule where the weight of a level correlates with the timeframe. For example, a weekly level requires confirmation from a 5-day, 5-minute chart or higher.
• Entry Confirmation: You plan to refine your entries using higher timeframe levels (such as 3D mean reversion setups) with appropriate confirmation from lower timeframes (5-minute or 15-minute charts).
• Taking Profit Earlier: Recognizing the importance of adjusting your profit targets to realistic levels, such as using VWAP as a guide for smaller but achievable gains.

6. Positive Outlook and Commitment

• Despite the setbacks, you remain optimistic about the potential to turn things around. You’ve invested significant time and effort into your trading journey and are committed to not letting one bad week ruin your progress.
• You acknowledge that every trader faces crossroads like this, and the ability to recover from setbacks is what differentiates good traders from elite ones.
• You've recognized the need to remain calm, focus on discipline, and approach the upcoming week with a renewed mindset and more conservative strategy.

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Key Actionable Steps:

1. Stick to Your Max Daily Loss Limit: Absolutely adhere to the $75 loss limit to preserve your remaining drawdown and avoid blowing the account.

2. Lower Trade Frequency: Go back to your evaluation stage discipline—limit your trades to a maximum of 3-4 per day to avoid overexposure.

3. Lock in Profits: Adjust your mindset on profits—take what the market gives you rather than holding out for larger targets. Start with VWAP targets instead of aiming for full ranges.

4. Follow Timeframe and Setup Rules: Use the new correlation rule to ensure your entries align with the timeframe's weight and the confirmed setup, especially for key levels.

5. Psychological Reset: Practice positive visualization and affirm your winning potential before each trade. Shift your mindset from fear of loss to confidence in execution.

By focusing on these key areas, you can slowly regain control and get your account back on track while preserving your capital.

 

 

 

 

Refined Trading Rules

1. Max Daily Loss Limit:

• Daily Loss Cap: $75. If this limit is hit, stop trading immediately for the day.
• Mindset: Treat this as your #1 rule. Preserving capital is the priority.

2. Daily Profit Target:

• Profit Goal: $150 per day (2:1 risk-to-reward ratio).
• Focus: Once the target is hit, walk away and end the trading session.

3. Trade Frequency:

• Max Trades Per Day: Limit to 3-4 high-probability trades per day to avoid overtrading and emotional decisions.
• Execution: Stay patient and selective, waiting for A+ setups.

4. Market Focus:

• S&P500 Preference: Given current volatility, focus on trading the S&P500 to minimize risk exposure. Only consider NASDAQ if conditions clearly favor it and targets are adjusted accordingly.

5. Timeframe Confirmation:

• Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Ensure trades align with higher timeframe levels and confirmations:
  • For Weekly Levels: Use a 5-day, 5-minute or 15-minute chart for confirmation.
  • For Monthly Levels: Use a 10-day, 30-minute chart for confirmation.
• Shorter Timeframes: Fine-tune entries using imbalances on shorter timeframes (1-minute or 5-minute) after confirmation.

6. Entry Execution:

• Use Stop Orders: Always use buy/sell stop orders to trigger trades. Avoid using limit orders to enter trades against momentum.
• Directional Reversal Rule: If your first trade is wrong and stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade of the day.

7. Profit Taking:

• Lock in Profits: Cut profit targets in half when trading volatile assets like NASDAQ (e.g., VWAP instead of entire range). For S&P500, aim for realistic targets aligned with levels like VWAP bands or key support/resistance zones.
• Don't Hold for Unrealistic Gains: Secure gains early if they align with your setup; don’t let winning trades turn into losses.

8. Mindset and Discipline:

• Positive Visualization: Approach each trade with confidence in your strategy and a clear mind. Avoid expecting failure before the trade even starts.
• Boring Trading is Good Trading: Focus on steady, stress-free trading without trying to hit home runs. Stay disciplined and keep emotions in check.

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This rule refinement ensures your approach is well-structured, disciplined, and focused on preserving capital, aligning with your new risk management goals. It’s designed to prevent overtrading, over-leveraging, and emotional decision-making while maximizing small but consistent wins.

 

 

 

 

okay, so, I just have to get real, and be brutally honest about how terrible I traded this week, with it being the first week of my express funded account, and overall a COMPLETE 180 from how well I did in the evaluation, prior to the transition to funded. And I think its not only a combination of the market drastically changing at the turn of the month into october, but also likely a psychology issue as well. And I have to catch it ahead of time, right here, right now, before its too late, and I blow this account.

I owe it to myself, for all of the hard work I have put in, not only for this 4TH funded account, but also for an entire year of work I have dedicated, wanting to quit multiple times, feeling lost, helpless etc, and I still have the chance, although damaging my account more than I should have on the first week of trading, but still have the chance to turn it around. And we have to be optimistic about that, and turn it around as a professional funded trader would and should

If you are going to do this as a full time career, you are going to hit this crossroad many times in your journey, and what separates good traders, and elite traders, is being able to dig yourself back up out of a hole, and turn it around for the better.

So with that being said, we are going to create a brand new overview of the entire week of trading since the turn of the month, all of the things we did wrong (which are many things) and also do a deep dive on how the market is actually moving, with trade of the day setups, and over viewing all of the trades I took to try to understand how to approach this upcoming week of trading. 

 

WE HAVE $750 DOLLARS OF DRAWDOWN LEFT TO WORK WITH:

So with that being said, we will have a max daily loss limit of $75 dollars. YES. 75 dollars.

for this reason, we may have no other choice than to trade the S&P500 as its less volatile than NASDAQ. 

We will have a realistic target of $150 dollars a day which is 2:1 ratio for our daily loss limit.

 

S&P500 Daily ATR is currently: 65 Points

NASDAQ Daily ATR is currently: 337 Points

So this means NASDAQ is currently 5X(times) more volatile than the S&P500 at the moment. 

 

SO the goal for this week, is the massively drop our expectations, DO NOT think about the money, make the trading week as boring as possible, completely reduce stress with low dollar fluctuations on the account, look to hit $150 and WALK.

if we are able to make $150 a day for this upcoming week, we will be breakeven on our equity for the week. and double our drawdown limit.

THAT IS THE GOAL, nothing more, nothing less. 

YOU MUST KEEP THIS IN MIND. do not come into the trading session swinging the bat hard. OR YOU WILL REGRET IT, and likely lose your trading account.

there is no reason to rush anything, you have all the time in the world, and you will be saving yourself the discouragement of failing this funded account.

A good way to approach it, is to imagine you just received your first payout, and this is you trading the account with a $750 dollar limit, which is a realistic scenario, do not approach is from a loss perspective. 

 

Things clearly done wrong during the trading week:

- We have broke our daily loss limit rule multiple times, losing WAY more than $200 dollars, multiple days, and on average losing more than double the daily loss limit

- OVERTRADING, and this could be one of the worst. I went from taking MAX 3-4 trades a day, on my evaluation, to literally taking 15-20 or more trades per day on my funded account

- Continuously taking trades that were proven to be wrong over and over again, thinking that the outcome would somehow change, contantly being short minded, and taking paper cut after papercut on the 1 minute and even somehow the 2 and 5 minute charts

- Not doing any deep dive journaling sessions, relying on what was working from the evaluation and the setups from the evaluation stage, thinking I had everything in the bag, and getting mentally lazy

- NOT taking profit, and letting almost every single trade that was in profit go against me, either resulting in a loss, or breakeven trade, which is completely unnacpetable, because friday, not only did I not lock in an $800 short trade, but I let the day go from what could have been a massive green, turning my entire week from negative to positive, but I wound up LOSING my biggest day, around over $500 dollars. THIS HAS TO END IMMEDIATELTY. Either by cutting our profit targets in HALF when when trading the NASDAQ, which would mean VWAP targets rather than the entire range from Lower to Upperband. The targets simply were not hitting, and I lost alot of money in unrealized gains by letting many trades go against me. In theory, had I taken profit all of the times I was up more than $200 unrealized, I likely would have over 1,000 dollars on the week of trading, potentially even more. So we have to keep this in perspective. 

- Self sabotage, which is something ive realized about myself, I get very very negative, and I almost expected the outcome of each trade to be a loser, yet still took the trade. I have to envision myself winning. to manifest it. 

 

So now, we will overview all of the trade of the day setups, for both premarket 9:30 session.

 

 

One thing I want to note, Is that the defualt timeframes are the 1 Day 1 minute chart. And then the next chart is 5 Day 5 Minute.

So basically, the default timeframes, suggest that anything more than a 1 day LEVEL, will require a minimum timeframe of 5 minute, and 15 minute timeframe confirmation.

Anything more than a WEEKLY level, meaning a monthly and above with require a 20 Day, 1 Hour chart and above, and all of those entries can be fine tuned with price imbalances on the shorter timeframes.

This first setup that we saw, took place from a 3D mean reversion, therefor, it required a minumum of 5 minute confirmation. 

 

(NEW TRADING RULE)

the Weight of the LEVEL, that correlates with a timeframe, has to be taken on the amount of days suggested on the lower timeframes.

EXAMPLE: A weekly level, is a level that consists of a full trading week. (5 Days)

So the trade must be taken from a (5 DAY) 5 minute or 15 minute default trading chart. 

 

1PM Sell SIde, 9:30 Open Downside Drive, H12 Bullish Trend Failure, H12 Line In The Sand, H12 Range, H6 Bullish Order Block, Higher DOL, Lower DOL, PML Short, Trend Below Lowerband, V Shaped Recovery, vwap bounce, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 8:17 PM
• Status: Closed
• Asset: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 1PM Sell Side
  • 9:30 Open Downside Drive
  • H12 Bullish Trend Failure
  • H12 Line In The Sand
  • H12 Range
  • H6 Bullish Order Block
  • Higher DOL
  • Lower DOL
  • PML Short
  • Trend Below Lowerband
  • V Shaped Recovery
  • VWAP Bounce
  • VWAP Lowerband To Upperband
  • VWAP Upperband Short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes:

• 9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
• 11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
• 3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
• General Observations:
  • Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
  • Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
  • Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.

Key Takeaways:

• Right:

  • Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
  • Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.

• Wrong:

  • Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
  • Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.

Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.

Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.

11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick. 

3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.

Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future. 

Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops. 

9:30 Open Short, Daily Bearish Trend Shift, Daily DOL Lower, Gap Below VWAP Lowerband, H12 Bearish Trend Shift, Playbook , PML Short, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Sell Stop Order, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Lowerband Down Trend, Weekly DOL Lower,

Trade Summary for July 24, 2024

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Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 4:50 PM
• Status: Closed
• Asset: /MNQN24
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 9:30 Open Short
  • Daily Bearish Trend Shift
  • Daily DOL Lower
  • Gap Below VWAP Lowerband
  • H12 Bearish Trend Shift
  • Playbook
  • PML Short
  • Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap
  • Sell Stop Order
  • Trade Of The Day
  • VWAP Lowerband Down Trend
  • Weekly DOL Lower

Notes:

• 10:05 AM:

  • Premarket Analysis:

    • Noticed a gap between the prior day close and premarket open, below the 1 Day VWAP lower band, indicating bearish displacement.
    • Attempted a long position off the next VWAP band which failed, reinforcing a bearish trend shift.

  • Trade Execution:

    • Shorted the PML (Pre-Market Low) due to clear stop-loss placement and strong downside pressure.
    • Anticipated a trend day given the downside action on the weekly chart and the market being in a discount area on multiple timeframes.
    • Observed zero drawdown from entry, indicating strong downside pressure and a well-timed entry.

• 10:40 AM:

  • The market continued making lower lows with no clear downside target due to distant DOL (Draw on Liquidity).
  • The VWAP and 21 EMA on the M2 chart indicated a consistent downtrend.
  • Entry experienced no retests, further validating the strength of the position.

• 12:30 PM:

  • Closed the trade with a profit of over $500, bringing the account over the $1K mark.
  • Decision to lock in profits was based on a successful morning session and strong performance.

Key Takeaways:

• Right:

  • Effective premarket analysis identified key gaps and trends, leading to a high-probability short setup.
  • Correctly identified the PML as a strategic entry point with minimal risk.
  • The trade execution was well-timed with no drawdown, indicating strong market understanding.

• Wrong:

  • Initial hesitation to confirm the bearish trend shift earlier could have improved entry precision.

Outcome: Successfully executed a short trade based on premarket analysis and trend confirmation, resulting in a profit of over $500. The strategy of letting the trade run with stops at session highs proved effective, and the consistent analysis and execution aligned with the identified patterns and signals.

Overall Summary: The trading session was marked by a disciplined approach, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis to confirm a bearish bias. The entry at the PML was well-placed, experiencing no drawdown and indicating strong downside pressure. The decision to lock in profits at $500 was prudent, demonstrating effective trade management and risk control. This trade reinforces the importance of thorough premarket analysis and strategic entry points, contributing to the overall success of the trading session.

 

 

 

 

10:05 AM. So im currently in a trade, I shorted the PML and its in the money, during the premarket session, I noticed a gap between the prior day close, and the pre market open. And this was under a key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, signaling clear displacement below the key band. I tried a long off of the next VWAP band, and that broke. It was after that loss that I confirmed the shift in direction, when I could have confirmed it after the gap. Also, I could have set an entry where my stop was on the overnight long entry attempt. 

The reason I shorted the PML is because it was the only area upon open, that I could see a clear stoploss placement, so I used it as my entry. Im currently not sure how low this is going to drop, as we hit the first wk DOL in the overnight session. But the next day, week, and month lower DOL, is very far away, so I honestly removed a target to the downside, and im just letting it drop. With this type of downside action, on weekly chart moves, these are usually where we get trend days. Also, we are technically in a discount area, on multiple timeframes, so usually when that happens, no one wants to short, because it appears we are low in the range, and also, no one wants to long, because the sellside pressure is so strong, these tend to be the days where everyone just sits on the sidelines and misses big moves. 

Another strong signal for this short, was the I went under no drawdown from the time of entry, which signals how strong the downside pressure really is. Im already up 200 points.

Also, a key tell that the downtrend would continue from the gap, is that it also changed the direction of the H12 trend, which is obvously half the amount of time of a full daily candle, so it usually confirms directional bias. 

And, on the daily chart, with the prior day close, suggested that the next target higher would be the prior day high wick, and upon the opening of the next day gap, it shifted the daily trend, as the prior day low was broken, and suggested a draw on liquidity at the 2 day prior bar low, near the lower weekly draw on liquidity. And the gap created earlier in the week, off of that chop out 30 day fibonacci trade I took, has been completely absorbed now at the time of writing this. 

So overall, this gap between the prior day close and premarket open was a major tell, and can act as displacement to confirm breaks of major levels. It happened at the beginning week gap, claiming the prior month low, which was the turtle soup type of trade that I was looking for. 

I think for now I will make a new rule, that if the H12 trend is going against the VWAP Upper or Lowerband Buy Or Sell signals, than I can not take that trade. 

My current plan for this trade, is to literally just let it drop for the duration of the trading session. With stops at session HOD, which I dont think will be triggered. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think Im willing to take the bet, as I should be increasing my risk slightly with my journaling data, and because we are now 3 plus weeks into this evaluation. But, the VWAP and the Lowerband are consistenly downtrending, which I take as a continuation sell signal, and massive downside volume. 

 

10:40 AM. Still making lower lows, still no downside target, becuase the next DOL is very far away. Still in a consistent downtrend on the VWAP, and consistently holding below the 21 EMA on M2 chart. The interesting part about my entry, is that not only did it incur zero drawdown, but it also didnt experience any retests of my price. This strongly signals a great entry price. 

12:30PM i just got back from a walk. decided to lock it up. im happy with todays profits over $500 dollars. its put my account over the 1K mark