78.6% Fibonacci Long,
All Time Highs,
ATH failure,
Bullish Pre Market,
H1 Bullish Structure,
H1 Bullish Trend,
H12 Bullish Structure,
H12 Bullish Trend,
H2 Bullish Structure,
H2 Bullish Trend,
H2 TrailStop,
H4 Bearish Structure,
H4 Bullish Trend,
H6 Bearish Structure,
H6 Bullish Trend,
M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation,
M1 Entry,
M1 green bar trail stop,
Mean reversion ,
Mean Reversion Long,
Missed Target,
Pre Market Low to ATH Failure 78.6% Fib,
vwap bounce,
Based on your detailed notes, here are some insights and recommendations for refining your trading approach:
Insights from Your Trade
-
Early Preparation:
- Waking up early and being on the charts well before market open (7:30 AM) is crucial. This allows you to analyze pre-market conditions thoroughly and plan your trades effectively.
-
Utilizing Premarket Analysis:
- Your use of the premarket open print theory and mean reversion (50% Fibonacci) to identify potential entry areas shows a structured approach to capturing trades aligned with the prevailing upward trend.
-
Trade Execution on M1 Chart:
- Executing based on the M1 chart for a bearish to bullish variation at the change in trend reflects your ability to adapt quickly to market dynamics.
-
Targeting Draw on Liquidity (DOL):
- Targeting the ATH or VWAP upper band for profit-taking aligns with your strategy of capitalizing on liquidity zones and market inefficiencies.
-
Stop Loss Management:
- Trailing your stop loss at each prior green bar shows risk management discipline. However, tightening it too much resulted in missing out on potential profits during the final squeeze.
Recommendations for Refinement
-
Optimize Trailing Stop Strategies:
- Track data on various timeframes (as you mentioned, reviewing M1 entries and considering M15 for trailing) to determine optimal trailing stop strategies. This analysis can help you avoid being stopped out prematurely while maximizing profits.
-
Partial Profit Taking:
- Consider taking partial profits rather than closing the entire position at once. This strategy allows you to lock in some gains while leaving room for further upside potential, thereby optimizing your risk-reward ratio.
-
Journal and Analyze:
- Continue journaling your trades, including detailed observations and decisions. Use this journal to systematically review what worked well and areas for improvement after each session.
-
Review and Adjust Post-Session:
- Conduct a thorough review of each trading session in hindsight, as you did, to identify patterns or setups that consistently lead to profitable trades. Use this analysis to refine your trading rules and approach over time.
Today was a good trading session. I woke up early, and was on the charts around 7:30 AM. And yet again, we were going for another ATH draw on liquidity.
During this time, I started out by utilizing my premarket open print theory for where buyers were located in the premarket session, and around 8 am, I noticed that we were likely at the near end of the move as the draw target at the ATH was almost reached, and the superior trend was also obviously bullish, so I decided to input my 'mean reversion' 50% fibonacci, from the premarket low to premarket high so that I can calculate a potential area to get involved for the continuation to the upside.
Well, thats the exact opportunity that was presented shortly after the 9:30 opening bell.I noticed that there was pretty close confluence between the 50% mean reversion and the VWAP.
So to get a good R/R entry, I executed the trade on the M1 chart, and decided to simply target the DOL (Draw On Liquidity) at the ATH OR the top of the VWAP upperband.Due to past data, I figured that the ATH would fail yet again at the first and second break ( as shown in prior data ), so my plan was to take 100% profit off of my trade as soon as the break occured.
I decided to trail my stoploss at each prior green bar, so I would stopout of the trade if any reversal variation took place.That happened right before the final squeeze to my exact target, and I did miss out on a good deal of remaining profit.
Overall it was a great trade, and I did everything correct according to the setup, but maybe I will start tracking more data on the best timeframes to trailstop once involved in a trade.What I can do, is go back to all of my prior M1 entries up until this point, and take the data from each dominant trend from the point of entry, per timeframe.
Analyzing todays trading session with hundsight (2.42PM) the M15 chart provided the best trail stop timeframe to capture the entirety on a big big move of around 200 points.
(What I Did Right)
- Waking up early, and being on the charts 2 hours before market open
- Analyzing the area of 'mean reversion' for the prevailing upward trend in the premarket
- Executing on the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation at the change in trend
(What I Did Wrong)
- I trailstopped the trade slightly tight (Im going to be tracking data to try to find the best way to mitigate being taken out of a winner too early)
Another thing I could have done was only trail half the position, to let the other half either hit the target or stop me out at breakeven
