9:30 Open Downside Drive, Break & Retest, Pre Market Open Short, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Support Turned Resistance, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband, Weekly Draw On Liquidity Low,

Trade Details: July 18, 2024

• Status: Closed
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 18, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 9:30 Open Downside Drive
  • Break & Retest
  • Pre Market Open Short
  • Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap
  • Support Turned Resistance
  • VWAP Upperband to Lowerband
  • Weekly Draw on Liquidity Low

Notes:

Market Conditions and Execution:

• Woke up past my alarm but identified a break and retest setup which aligned with my trading strategy.
• The pre-market open served as support, which broke, and then retested as resistance.
• Entered the short trade as the price moved through the overnight gap between the prior day's close and the pre-market open.
• Targeted the next draw on liquidity, which was the weekly low, following the direction of the prevailing trend.
• Observed that using the M5 chart provided better entry opportunities with minimal drawdown, and high hit rate.
• Noted that the draw on liquidity approach has been effective in predicting the next target.

Insights and Strategy Adjustments:

• Plan to monitor potential bounces at the 20D (Month Low) and recent liquidity sweeps at the weekly low in future sessions.
• If bulls fail to hold the level, the next target could be the prior month low, which is a significant distance away.
• Consider waiting for prior order block entries on smaller timeframes if a bullish trend shift occurs off the monthly level.
• Realized the importance of sizing correctly and the impact it could have had on the trade's profitability. Missed an opportunity to size appropriately due to waking up late and acting on gut instinct.
• Emphasized the importance of proper candle timeframe alignment for better trade timing, reducing premature entries, and ensuring high accuracy.

Performance and Reflection:

• The trade went in my favor, and the setup was validated by the break and retest pattern.
• Noted that waiting for the right candle timeframe alignment to provide liquidity has been beneficial for accurate trade timing.
• Identified the need for better pre-market preparation to avoid missing sizing opportunities and maximize trading potential.

Updated Trading Rules and Checklist:

1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

   • Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
   • Incorporate Weekly Draw on Liquidity, Inverse FVG, and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.

2. Entry Criteria:

   • Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
   • Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, Break & Retest, and FVGs for precise entry points.

3. Stop Loss and Targets:

   • Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
   • Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.

4. Execution Strategy:

   • Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
   • Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.

5. Data Collection and Analysis:

   • Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
   • Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.

6. Avoid Overtrading:

   • If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability order blocks.

7. Premarket Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
   • Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.

8. Mental Preparedness:

   • If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
   • Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.

9. VWAP Tracking:

   • Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
   • Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.

10. Incorporate Weekly Analysis:

    • Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
    • Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.

11. Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:

    • Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
    • Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.

12. Entry Size and Risk Management:

    • Ensure proper position sizing using the position size calculator before entering a trade.
    • Avoid trading based on gut instinct and ensure all trades align with the predefined strategy and setup criteria.

Please provide the next trade entry and notes for further analysis and refinement.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

I woke up past my alarm clock, but I seen a trade setup present itself, and it went in my favor.

This was a break and retest setup/support turned resistance play for the premarket open serving as support in the premarket, which broke, went through the overnight gap between the prior day close and pre market open, and I took it for further downside toward the next draw on liquidity which was the weekly low. As that is the direction the market was still trending. 

Draw on liquidity has worked well thus far with predicting the next target for me, and its a very simplistic approach of where the trend is likely to go next due to prior price action trend with multi-timeframe analysis. 

Another I noted, was that the M5 chart may provide slightly better opportunities for entry for the time being, due to the higher timeframe levels being presented at the moment, and it appears the M5 variations provided no drawdown upon entry with high hit rate, so for now I will execute on that timeframe unless the data suggests otherwise. 

Going into tomorrows trading session, I will be watching for a potential bounce at the 20D (Month Low) and for the most recent sweep on liquidity at the weekly low, to potentially hold for a bounce. If the bulls fail to hold the level tomorrow, I would expect that the next DOL is the prior month low, which is quite far away. There is also a 61.8% retracement level between the 30D Low to High. And since the range will likely be very large from a bearish to bullish trend shift, it may be smart to wait for prior orderblock entries on the smaller timeframes, if we do happen to get that bullish trend shift off of this monthly level. 

 

I should have hit the trade I entered today with more size, but because my alarm clock didnt go off, I was unable to properly size, and because I went off gut instinct, I only took 1 contract. If I sized correctly, it likely could have been around an $800-$900 trading day.

 

Another thing that has been helping tremendously is waiting for the proper candle timeframe alignment for the move, when that specific candle is actually offer the buy side or sell side liquidity that Im expecting, I think that is the best way to actually time my trades. Other then getting in too early and getting stopped out with death by 1000 cuts. And while providing that liquidty, it also provides a trend shift & variation to ensure high accuracy & the A+ side of a setup.

9:30 Open Short, Daily Bearish Structure, Daily Bearish Trend, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, Pre Market Open Short, Weekly Bullish to Bearish Trend , Weekly Inverse FVG, Weekly Trend Reversal,

Trade Details: July 17, 2024

• Status: Closed
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 17, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: No Trade
• Patterns:
  • None executed

Notes:

Today's Trade Setup and Observations:

• No Trade Day:

  • Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
  • Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.

• Trade of the Day Setup:

  • Premarket Analysis:
    • Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
    • Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
  • Session Analysis:
    • The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
    • No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
  • VWAP Settings and Observations:
    • Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
    • Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
    • Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.

Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):

1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

   • Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
   • Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.

2. Entry Criteria:

   • Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
   • Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.

3. Stop Loss and Targets:

   • Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
   • Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.

4. Execution Strategy:

   • Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
   • Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.

5. Data Collection and Analysis:

   • Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
   • Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.

6. Avoid Overtrading:

   • If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

7. Premarket Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
   • Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.

8. Mental Preparedness:

   • If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
   • Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.

9. VWAP Tracking:

   • Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
   • Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.

10. Incorporate Weekly Analysis:

    • Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
    • Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.

11. Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:

    • Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
    • Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.

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No trade day.

This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.

It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.

During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against. 

Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries. 

8:30 DATA, 9:30 Open Retest Short, All Bullish SIgnal, All Time Highs, CPI, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Trail Stop, Playbook , Pre Market Open Short, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Short, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Analysis of July 11, 2024

Key Points:

• Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
• Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
• Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
• Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Discipline and Routine:

   • Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
   • Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.

2. Missed Opportunities:

   • While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
   • Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.

3. Trade of the Day Analysis:

   • Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
   • Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.

4. Risk Management:

   • Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
   • Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy

Playbook Development

1. Setup Identification:

   • Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
   • Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.

2. Execution Guidelines:

   • Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
   • Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.

3. Review and Adapt:

   • Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
   • Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.

Checklist for Future Trades

1. Preparation:

   • Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
   • Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.

2. Execution:

   • Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
   • Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.

3. Reflection:

   • Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
   • Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.

By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.

I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.

Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.

One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.