15M Bearish Variation Confirmation, 3D 50% Retracement & H4 ODB Confluence (SHORT), 3D Bearish Trend Shift 50% Retracement Short, 3D Trend Shift/3D 50% FIB Imbalance, 9:30 Open (Short), H4 Bearish Orderblock Short, M1 Supply Zone (15M Variation) Retest Short, PML Short, Trade Of The Day , WK Bullish Orderblock Target,

Your main intention should be to prioritize disciplined risk management and consistency over profit maximization.The goal is to focus on executing your strategy with precision and sticking to your refined trading rules to rebuild confidence and stabilize your account. 

Your primary intention should be to "Trade conservatively and focus on capital preservation." Given your limited drawdown cushion ($750) and recent trading outcomes, your goal is to rebuild confidence and establish a positive trading rhythm by prioritizing discipline, patience, and precision in every decision. Approach the day with the mindset of a risk manager first, trader second.

 

 

 

 

 

Key Takeaways from Your Trading Notes:

1. Acknowledgment of Mistakes

• You recognize that the first week of your funded account was drastically different from your evaluation phase, leading to significant losses.
• The combination of a shift in market conditions at the start of October and potential psychological hurdles seems to have negatively impacted your performance.
• You identify that overtrading and failure to follow your own rules (such as the daily loss limit) were major contributors to your poor performance.

2. Psychological Factors

• You acknowledged self-sabotage and negativity, expecting trades to fail before even taking them, which likely influenced poor decision-making.
• There's an understanding that mindset needs to shift toward positive visualization to manifest success and turn things around.
• You've recognized that keeping a calm, professional mindset and approaching trades with low stress is key to staying in control and making rational decisions.

3. Critical Trading Mistakes

• Breaking the Daily Loss Limit: You repeatedly exceeded your daily loss limit by significant amounts, which was a major factor in the drawdown.
• Overtrading: You moved from 3-4 trades per day (in the evaluation) to 15-20 trades per day after funding, leading to overexposure and losses.
• Not Taking Profits: A major issue was letting winning trades go back into the red, missing the opportunity to lock in profits. The failure to secure $800 in profit on Friday underscores this problem.
• Chasing Unrealized Gains: By aiming for extended targets (e.g., Upper VWAP band) instead of scaling out profits earlier (VWAP target), you lost unrealized gains. Adjusting profit-taking targets could have saved you from significant losses.

4. New Approach and Game Plan

• Reduced Expectations: You’ve set a max daily loss of $75 with a target of $150/day, aiming for small, consistent wins. The goal is to bring the account back to breakeven by making trading "boring" and stress-free.
• Switching to S&P500: Due to NASDAQ's high volatility, you may need to shift to trading the S&P500 for a more stable, less volatile approach.
• Focus on Consistency: Your goal for this week is simply to stay disciplined, follow the loss limit, and consistently hit small targets rather than swinging for large wins. This will help prevent blowing up the account.

5. Technical Adjustments

• Timeframe Correlation: You've introduced a rule where the weight of a level correlates with the timeframe. For example, a weekly level requires confirmation from a 5-day, 5-minute chart or higher.
• Entry Confirmation: You plan to refine your entries using higher timeframe levels (such as 3D mean reversion setups) with appropriate confirmation from lower timeframes (5-minute or 15-minute charts).
• Taking Profit Earlier: Recognizing the importance of adjusting your profit targets to realistic levels, such as using VWAP as a guide for smaller but achievable gains.

6. Positive Outlook and Commitment

• Despite the setbacks, you remain optimistic about the potential to turn things around. You’ve invested significant time and effort into your trading journey and are committed to not letting one bad week ruin your progress.
• You acknowledge that every trader faces crossroads like this, and the ability to recover from setbacks is what differentiates good traders from elite ones.
• You've recognized the need to remain calm, focus on discipline, and approach the upcoming week with a renewed mindset and more conservative strategy.

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Key Actionable Steps:

1. Stick to Your Max Daily Loss Limit: Absolutely adhere to the $75 loss limit to preserve your remaining drawdown and avoid blowing the account.

2. Lower Trade Frequency: Go back to your evaluation stage discipline—limit your trades to a maximum of 3-4 per day to avoid overexposure.

3. Lock in Profits: Adjust your mindset on profits—take what the market gives you rather than holding out for larger targets. Start with VWAP targets instead of aiming for full ranges.

4. Follow Timeframe and Setup Rules: Use the new correlation rule to ensure your entries align with the timeframe's weight and the confirmed setup, especially for key levels.

5. Psychological Reset: Practice positive visualization and affirm your winning potential before each trade. Shift your mindset from fear of loss to confidence in execution.

By focusing on these key areas, you can slowly regain control and get your account back on track while preserving your capital.

 

 

 

 

Refined Trading Rules

1. Max Daily Loss Limit:

• Daily Loss Cap: $75. If this limit is hit, stop trading immediately for the day.
• Mindset: Treat this as your #1 rule. Preserving capital is the priority.

2. Daily Profit Target:

• Profit Goal: $150 per day (2:1 risk-to-reward ratio).
• Focus: Once the target is hit, walk away and end the trading session.

3. Trade Frequency:

• Max Trades Per Day: Limit to 3-4 high-probability trades per day to avoid overtrading and emotional decisions.
• Execution: Stay patient and selective, waiting for A+ setups.

4. Market Focus:

• S&P500 Preference: Given current volatility, focus on trading the S&P500 to minimize risk exposure. Only consider NASDAQ if conditions clearly favor it and targets are adjusted accordingly.

5. Timeframe Confirmation:

• Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Ensure trades align with higher timeframe levels and confirmations:
  • For Weekly Levels: Use a 5-day, 5-minute or 15-minute chart for confirmation.
  • For Monthly Levels: Use a 10-day, 30-minute chart for confirmation.
• Shorter Timeframes: Fine-tune entries using imbalances on shorter timeframes (1-minute or 5-minute) after confirmation.

6. Entry Execution:

• Use Stop Orders: Always use buy/sell stop orders to trigger trades. Avoid using limit orders to enter trades against momentum.
• Directional Reversal Rule: If your first trade is wrong and stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade of the day.

7. Profit Taking:

• Lock in Profits: Cut profit targets in half when trading volatile assets like NASDAQ (e.g., VWAP instead of entire range). For S&P500, aim for realistic targets aligned with levels like VWAP bands or key support/resistance zones.
• Don't Hold for Unrealistic Gains: Secure gains early if they align with your setup; don’t let winning trades turn into losses.

8. Mindset and Discipline:

• Positive Visualization: Approach each trade with confidence in your strategy and a clear mind. Avoid expecting failure before the trade even starts.
• Boring Trading is Good Trading: Focus on steady, stress-free trading without trying to hit home runs. Stay disciplined and keep emotions in check.

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This rule refinement ensures your approach is well-structured, disciplined, and focused on preserving capital, aligning with your new risk management goals. It’s designed to prevent overtrading, over-leveraging, and emotional decision-making while maximizing small but consistent wins.

 

 

 

 

okay, so, I just have to get real, and be brutally honest about how terrible I traded this week, with it being the first week of my express funded account, and overall a COMPLETE 180 from how well I did in the evaluation, prior to the transition to funded. And I think its not only a combination of the market drastically changing at the turn of the month into october, but also likely a psychology issue as well. And I have to catch it ahead of time, right here, right now, before its too late, and I blow this account.

I owe it to myself, for all of the hard work I have put in, not only for this 4TH funded account, but also for an entire year of work I have dedicated, wanting to quit multiple times, feeling lost, helpless etc, and I still have the chance, although damaging my account more than I should have on the first week of trading, but still have the chance to turn it around. And we have to be optimistic about that, and turn it around as a professional funded trader would and should

If you are going to do this as a full time career, you are going to hit this crossroad many times in your journey, and what separates good traders, and elite traders, is being able to dig yourself back up out of a hole, and turn it around for the better.

So with that being said, we are going to create a brand new overview of the entire week of trading since the turn of the month, all of the things we did wrong (which are many things) and also do a deep dive on how the market is actually moving, with trade of the day setups, and over viewing all of the trades I took to try to understand how to approach this upcoming week of trading. 

 

WE HAVE $750 DOLLARS OF DRAWDOWN LEFT TO WORK WITH:

So with that being said, we will have a max daily loss limit of $75 dollars. YES. 75 dollars.

for this reason, we may have no other choice than to trade the S&P500 as its less volatile than NASDAQ. 

We will have a realistic target of $150 dollars a day which is 2:1 ratio for our daily loss limit.

 

S&P500 Daily ATR is currently: 65 Points

NASDAQ Daily ATR is currently: 337 Points

So this means NASDAQ is currently 5X(times) more volatile than the S&P500 at the moment. 

 

SO the goal for this week, is the massively drop our expectations, DO NOT think about the money, make the trading week as boring as possible, completely reduce stress with low dollar fluctuations on the account, look to hit $150 and WALK.

if we are able to make $150 a day for this upcoming week, we will be breakeven on our equity for the week. and double our drawdown limit.

THAT IS THE GOAL, nothing more, nothing less. 

YOU MUST KEEP THIS IN MIND. do not come into the trading session swinging the bat hard. OR YOU WILL REGRET IT, and likely lose your trading account.

there is no reason to rush anything, you have all the time in the world, and you will be saving yourself the discouragement of failing this funded account.

A good way to approach it, is to imagine you just received your first payout, and this is you trading the account with a $750 dollar limit, which is a realistic scenario, do not approach is from a loss perspective. 

 

Things clearly done wrong during the trading week:

- We have broke our daily loss limit rule multiple times, losing WAY more than $200 dollars, multiple days, and on average losing more than double the daily loss limit

- OVERTRADING, and this could be one of the worst. I went from taking MAX 3-4 trades a day, on my evaluation, to literally taking 15-20 or more trades per day on my funded account

- Continuously taking trades that were proven to be wrong over and over again, thinking that the outcome would somehow change, contantly being short minded, and taking paper cut after papercut on the 1 minute and even somehow the 2 and 5 minute charts

- Not doing any deep dive journaling sessions, relying on what was working from the evaluation and the setups from the evaluation stage, thinking I had everything in the bag, and getting mentally lazy

- NOT taking profit, and letting almost every single trade that was in profit go against me, either resulting in a loss, or breakeven trade, which is completely unnacpetable, because friday, not only did I not lock in an $800 short trade, but I let the day go from what could have been a massive green, turning my entire week from negative to positive, but I wound up LOSING my biggest day, around over $500 dollars. THIS HAS TO END IMMEDIATELTY. Either by cutting our profit targets in HALF when when trading the NASDAQ, which would mean VWAP targets rather than the entire range from Lower to Upperband. The targets simply were not hitting, and I lost alot of money in unrealized gains by letting many trades go against me. In theory, had I taken profit all of the times I was up more than $200 unrealized, I likely would have over 1,000 dollars on the week of trading, potentially even more. So we have to keep this in perspective. 

- Self sabotage, which is something ive realized about myself, I get very very negative, and I almost expected the outcome of each trade to be a loser, yet still took the trade. I have to envision myself winning. to manifest it. 

 

So now, we will overview all of the trade of the day setups, for both premarket 9:30 session.

 

 

One thing I want to note, Is that the defualt timeframes are the 1 Day 1 minute chart. And then the next chart is 5 Day 5 Minute.

So basically, the default timeframes, suggest that anything more than a 1 day LEVEL, will require a minimum timeframe of 5 minute, and 15 minute timeframe confirmation.

Anything more than a WEEKLY level, meaning a monthly and above with require a 20 Day, 1 Hour chart and above, and all of those entries can be fine tuned with price imbalances on the shorter timeframes.

This first setup that we saw, took place from a 3D mean reversion, therefor, it required a minumum of 5 minute confirmation. 

 

(NEW TRADING RULE)

the Weight of the LEVEL, that correlates with a timeframe, has to be taken on the amount of days suggested on the lower timeframes.

EXAMPLE: A weekly level, is a level that consists of a full trading week. (5 Days)

So the trade must be taken from a (5 DAY) 5 minute or 15 minute default trading chart. 

 

1 Day Moving Average Long, 1 Minute Entry, 2D Bearish Orderblock Reversal, 2D Close above 2D Bearish O, Daily Bearish Orderblock Target, moving average cross, Premarket Low to P, Trade Of The Day , Turtle Soup, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,

I had a chance to briefly review yesterdays trading session before today trading session (Day After) and I noticed that the 1 Day Moving Average was the perfect entry for yesterdays session, and I likely could have avoided the first stopout had I waited for that entry. I will remember this going into todays trading session. Because I had the moving average turned off yesterday, which is pretty ironic because its the first time I have turned it off in a while, due to the fact that it was minimizing my chart and I couldnt see price very well. Guess I should have kept it. 

 

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Trade of the Day Setup: Successfully hit the "Trade of the Day" setup, similar to the previous day’s trade.

2. Premarket Analysis on Multi-day Charts:

   • Noted that the 2-day chart closed above a 2-day bearish order block, suggesting potential bullishness.
   • Contradiction with the 4-day chart, which was still in a downtrend unless yesterday’s high was broken.

3. Supply Area Breach as a Bullish Signal: Drew a 1-minute supply zone from the prior day's high, and when price breached that area in the morning, it indicated potential for higher prices.

4. Choppy Market Open: The 9:30 AM session was choppy, with price fighting in an accumulation zone for longs. The VWAP lower band aligned with the 2-day bearish order block, marking a critical "line in the sand."

5. Morning Losses from FOMO and Oversizing: Experienced FOMO, took oversized positions, and suffered larger-than-necessary losses in the morning session. Despite a 33% win rate, ended the day green.

6. Turtle Soup Setup: The final long trade was based on a Turtle Soup setup after the first stop run for longs. Opted for a 1-minute entry due to large candles on the higher timeframes (5 and 2-minute charts).

7. Held for Larger Move: Decided not to take profit at the VWAP upper band, choosing to hold for a larger move since stops were set at breakeven and no risk was left in the trade. The trade eventually hit the higher target at 19,449, the daily bearish order block.

8. Benefit of Multi-day Chart Intervals: Breaking down the daily chart into 1, 2, 3, and 4-day intervals improved the ability to read price action and trends, especially identifying trend shifts on the 4-day chart.

9. Confluence of 2-day Order Block and VWAP: Recognized the importance of the 2-day close above the bearish order block and the VWAP lower band sitting at the order block, focusing on high-probability, low-risk entries.

10. Evaluation Progress and Prop Firm Strategy: Almost halfway to the profit target for the evaluation account. Enjoying the flexibility of trading without a trailing drawdown, which favors the strategy of holding for larger moves. Believes that trailing drawdowns would have limited the ability to hold through significant pullbacks.

 

 

Today was an interesting trading day. I wound up hitting yet again the trade of the day setup, which looked very similar to yesterdays setup.

Going into todays trading day, when I was doing premarket analysis, I noticed that on the 2 day chart, yesterdays 2 days bar, closed above the 2 day bearish orderblock. With that being said, there was still a contradiction because on the 4 day chart, a brand new bar opened today. And price was technically still in a 4 day chart downtrend, unless price was able to take out yesterdays high.

So what I did, was draw a 1 minute supply area from yesterdays high of day, and when I woke up in the morning, I noticed that the high, and the supply area was breached. So this gave me an indiciation that we would likely see higher prices on the day. 

The 9:30 open was pretty sloppy and choppy, and it was a fight for price, as we were in an accumulation zone for longs. And one of the main things I had noticed, was that the lowerband of the VWAP was sitting directly on the 2 day bearish orderblock. So I knew that that area was going to be the line in the sand essentially. 

And the actual line in the sand on the session, was far far below where price was trading, because the 12 hour chart was actually in the process of creating a 3 bar variation for a 12 hour fair value gap. 

I got stop ran in the morning on the first long, and I had fomo and was also getting greedy for a long entry, so I decided to market at prices I shouldnt have been, and I also oversized by 1 contract on the second try, which resulted in a bigger loss than I should have taken in the morning. 

I ended this session with virtually a 33% win rate, yet I am still green on the day. 

When I entered the final long trade, It was a turtle soup setup, after the first stoploss was ran for longs. And it seemed like the first loss was basically inevitable, because I was taking the trade from a 1 minute chart, due to the fact that the candles were massive on the 5 minute, And even the 2 minute as well. So the 1 minute entry was the best for todays session. 

When I was in the long trade, I decided not to take profit at the VWAP upperband, and hold through a rotation for the bigger move, because I was down on the day, I had no risk left on the trade because I had stops set at breakeven, and I didnt see any reason to take profit yet as I had a higher upside target 

I have also noticed that breaking the daily chart up into 1,2,3,4 day intervals really helps me read price action and trend better.

Just simple noticing the trend shift on the 4 day chart, dramatically helped with my daily bias for the day, and also, taking note of the 2d bearish orderblock, the 2 day close above the orderblock, and the lowerband and 2 day orderblock confluence, to really focus on the highest probability, lowest risk entry on the day. And with that being said, we are almost at half the desired profit target to be hit on this evaluation account, and I am really loving the fact that I dont have to trade this prop firm with a trailing drawdown. I believe it favors my strategy more. As i am a daytrader. And I highly believe that if I was trading an apex evaluation with a trailing drawdown, I wouldnt have been able to to hold for the larger move on the day because of how massive the pullback was from the first rotation. 

It hit my profit target as planned at 19449 which was the daily bearish orderblock. And I figured it was a very high chance we would get there, because the 2 day hold, holds more weight than a 1 day supply area. 

9:30 Open Short, CPI, Lowerband to Upperband Long, Trade Of The Day , Trend Above Upperband, Trend Below Lowerband, Upperband to Lowerband Short,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Best Trading Day: Achieved the best trading day since starting the Topstep evaluation, with the main trade being a "Trade of the Day" setup.

2. Missed Alarm: Overslept and woke up at 9:30 AM, just as the market opened, missing the premarket routine.

3. Price Action Focus: Chose to observe pure price action for the first 1-2 hours before entering a trade.

4. Chase Trade: Felt FOMO due to the initial drop at the open and took a chase short trade when the price traded below the VWAP lower band, targeting the prior day low. Covered the position early out of fear of a squeeze, missing the full move.

5. Familiar Reversal Setup: Recognized a reversal setup when the 1-minute bar closed above the VWAP lower band, supported by a 5-minute bearish-to-bullish variation. This led to the "Trade of the Day" long position.

6. Massive Rally: Entered long with a target at the VWAP upper band (320 points away). Trailed the stop after the third failed attempt to break the 2-minute trend to the downside. The market rallied 600 points from the entry, passing several significant levels, including the premarket high and a 4-day fair value gap.

7. Position Management: Closed the entire position due to having only 1 contract, missing out on holding for the massive move. Would have held longer if more contracts were traded.

 

 

Had my best trading day today since starting my Topstep evaluation account. And the main trade I took, was actually a trade of the day setup.

I woke up basically at 9:30 AM on the dot, due to oversleeping past my alarm clock. And from the moment the market opened, it was a drop from the opening bell. My thought process at this time was that I was just going to read pure price action for at least an hour or 2 until I saw a reasonable setup. And the market dropped heavily, inducing a bit of fomo (fear of missing out) for the downside move. I wound up taking a chase trade short, as I saw that price was trading and trending below the VWAP lowerband. because of this, I anticipated more downside to my anticipated price target at that time, which was the prior day low. I sold just a minute short, covering profit from fear of a squeeze to the upside, to watch it immediately drop and hit my target. 

As I was monitoring price, I saw a setup occur that I have became familiar with, and that a reversal from a trend below or above a VWAP. And actually, just to note, the short setup for the session on the morning came from a trend above the upperband, which also led to a reversal to the downside. So todays candle was heavily influenced by the prior day candles range. 

I was able to lock up the short trade, and I soon as I saw the 1 minute bar close back above the lowerband for a reversal IN CONFLUENCE, with a 5 minute bearish to bullish variation, I decided to take the market long, for the trade of the day setup. 

At this time I had a price target back to the VWAP upperband, but it was 320 points away, so I decided to trailstop the positon after the thired attempt to break the 2 minute trend to the downside, and because I was only in with 1 contract, I had to cover the entire position. Had I had 2 or more contracts, I would have held for a massive move, because the market rallied from my entry a staggering 600 points to the upside, as a straight shot up, straight through the pre market high, and through what that time I had marked as an unclosed 3rd candle, 4 day fair value gap rip to the upside, into the 2 day bearish orderblock I had marked from the week prior. 

5 Minute Entry, 9:30 Open Short, H12 Bearish Orderblock (Short), M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Overnight Session, Trade Of The Day ,

Todays trade of the day setup, was presented in the overnight trading session from the H12 bearish orderblock, with multiple attempts to sweep the liquidity, it still held strong. So it appears at the moment, the strongest short setup in this current downtrending market is an H12 bearish orderblock short. 

H2 ODB Long, M15 Entry, M15 Entry Win, Overnight Session, Playbook , Trade Of The Day , Turtle Soup,

Key Takeaways

1. Timeframe Correlation: Observations indicate a strong correlation between the 15-minute (M15) entries and 2-hour (H2) orderblock (ODB) management. This correlation suggests that the M15 chart’s reaction to the H2 ODB is a crucial factor in identifying high-probability trades.

2. Orderblock Validity: When an orderblock is invalidated on a timeframe, it's essential to monitor higher timeframes for potential setups. This is due to the possibility that the trade setup might be occurring on a higher timeframe despite a shorter timeframe's signal.

3. Timeframe Adjustments: If any timeframe closes above or below a key orderblock level, the trade setup should be reassessed on the next higher timeframe. For instance, a close below an orderblock on M2, M5, and M15 charts might still be valid if the 15-minute chart shows a wick hold.

4. Secondary Trade Opportunities: The secondary setup observed with the 1-hour wick hold of the 4-hour ODB suggests that multiple timeframe correlations can offer high-risk reward opportunities.

5. Data Collection: Gathering data on how different timeframes correlate with each other is crucial. The correlation between M15 entries and H2 trends should be tracked, as it often results in high-probability trades.

6. Market Context: The context of market liquidity and orderblock validity can change based on broader market trends and news events. Adjusting trade decisions based on new data or shifts in market sentiment is essential.

Lessons Learned

1. Importance of Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Monitoring multiple timeframes is vital. A setup might appear invalid on lower timeframes but could still be valid on higher timeframes.

2. Dynamic Orderblock Management: Orderblocks should not be considered completely invalid if they are breached on lower timeframes. Higher timeframes may still offer valid setups.

3. Adaptability: Trade strategies should be adaptable to changing market conditions and data releases. Staying flexible with your approach can improve the accuracy of your entries.

4. Liquidity and Timeframes: Higher timeframes' liquidity levels should be compared with lower timeframes. In some cases, lower timeframes might have liquidity levels that are above those of higher timeframes.

Things Done Right

1. Effective Use of Higher Timeframes: Using the H2 ODB and observing its interaction with the M15 chart provided a successful entry strategy.

2. Recognizing Data Impact: Noting the impact of news releases and adjusting the trading thesis accordingly led to recognizing the bullish sentiment during the 9:30 session.

3. Entry Timing: The entry based on the M5 chart's reaction after the data drop and subsequent movement was accurate, confirming the trade setup.

Things Done Wrong

1. Inconsistent Timeframe Monitoring: Initially, not consistently monitoring higher timeframes might have caused missed opportunities or incorrect trade assessments.

2. Overlooking Liquidity Levels: The observation about the M5 ODB being above higher timeframe levels was not initially incorporated into the trading strategy, possibly leading to confusion about orderblock validity.

New Rules Learned

1. Canceling Orderblocks: If a timeframe closes above or below a key orderblock level, cancel the orderblock for that timeframe and switch to the next higher timeframe for reassessment.

2. Data and Market Sentiment: Adjust trading decisions based on new data and market sentiment. If a significant market move occurs, reassess the previous trade thesis.

3. Timeframe Validity: If an orderblock is invalidated on lower timeframes, validate it on higher timeframes before discarding it entirely.

4. Entry Confirmation: Always look for confirmation from the timeframe you are trading on, but also consider the interaction with higher timeframes for confirmation.

Key Intention

To enhance trading accuracy, the intention is to focus on:

• Gathering Data: Systematically collect data on timeframe correlations, especially between M15 entries and H2 trends.
• Adaptive Strategy: Develop a more flexible strategy that accounts for multiple timeframe interactions and market context shifts.
• Orderblock Management: Refine the process for determining when an orderblock is invalidated and ensure thorough monitoring across all relevant timeframes.

Key Takeaway: The session appeared bullish because no supply zones were identified near the Line In The Sand (LIS) across multiple timeframes. Specifically, while the M1 order block entry was above the LIS and the M5 supply zone was utilized, higher timeframes (M15, M30, H1, H2, H4, H6, H12) lacked any significant supply areas near the LIS. This absence of supply zones suggested a high probability of the LIS being breached, indicating a potential reversal in the intraday trend bias.

 

 

 

 

This is a 'Trade Of The Day' setup for August 8th trading day. One of them is the A+ Long setup from the overnight session, and the next is the in session (9:30) trade setup which I traded.

From doing this writeup, I am noticing a couple key takeaways from the trade of the day setup. And that is a different way to interpret this orderblocks.

For one, there has most certainly been a correlation between the M15 entry and the H2 bar for management correlations. Not only from a trend shift and price action entry perspective. but now I am also noticing it here on this screenshot and trading overview. And the perfect entry for the price action reaction off of the H2 ODB (Orderblock) was a 15 minute chart reaction. This is a correlation in this current market context that has been happening over and over again.

Another thing that I am noticing about these orderblocks, is that when I have a specific hard level for an orderblock. I must immediately cancel any timeframe bar that closes below or above my key orderblock level. (If it closes above the level for shorts) (if it closes below the level for longs). The moment that any of those timeframes close below or above my orderblock, I must make a shift to the next highest timeframe and continuously monitor the reaction, because the setup could be taking place on a higher timeframe, and because I havent monitored this in the past, I could likely be missing other timeframe entry models.

(For Example) I usually trade the 2 minute, and 5 minute chart for my entries. But this specific trade setup, took place on the 15 minute chart, and I usually dont monitor for 15 minute entries (only sometimes). But the 2 minute chart closed below this specific H2 orderblock, as well as the 5 minute, as well as the 1 minute etc. But when analyzing the 15 minute chart, the bar wicked off of the H2 orderblock (signaling a hold), turtle souped the prior day low, had a bearish to bullish variation entry model above the prior bar highs, created a slight 15 minute fair value gap, and experienced virtually zero drawdown upon entry, stops at the premarket low (H2 Orderblock & Pre Market Low) for a continuation trend higher throughout the overnight session, into the 9:30 trading session, until it eventually engulfed the entire prior days price action. This specific entry provided massive risk to reward opportunity, all because of the next standard higher timeframe chart signaled a wick hold, when the shorter timeframes suggested a break and close below the level. When we get multiple contributing factors to a high probability trading entry with multiple confluences, our chances of success become greater, as well as our expected value on the trade.

There was also a secondary trade entry opportunity off of the 1 hour wick hold of the 4 hour ODB, as all timeframes up to the 30 minute chart closed below the H4 ODB key level. So between the M15 hold of the H2 ODB, and the H1 hold of the H4 ODB, I am noticing a correlation for a timeframe entry, with a factor of around 4-8 lower for a high risk reward entry. 

I will make in a key intention to focus on gathering data for all of the timeframes and how they correlate with eachother. Because again, I am noticing a very high correlation between the 15 minute chart entry models and the 2 hour chart trends. Usually, from what I have noticed, when the first 15 minute chart entry is presented, it usually provides for 1 trading decision (1 trade on the day) and when managed with the 2 hour chart, the trend usually stays intact for the duration of the trading day, without any of the prior 2 hour bar lows being breached. Now, im sure that this is subject to change as market contexts change, so I think it will also be smart to start gathering the data on price action entry model timeframes in play, and trend timeframes in play for trade management once entered. 

The reason I only marked the H4 and H2 orderblocks is because the H12 and H6 orderblocks were already (USED), meaning their liquidity has already been tapped into. 

Also, when analyzing this chart, I am also aware that from the major market bottom at 17346, there are still multiple timeframes such as H1, M30, M15 & M1 that have not been tapped into. But there is one timeframe that has been used, which is the M5 ODB. This is quite an interesting observation, because the M5 liquidty and timeframe is ABOVE the higher timeframe untapped liquidity such as the H1/M30 and M15 timeframe charts. Usually, when looking for a long entry off of a demand orderblock rather than supply, the lower the timeframe you go, the lower the price of the orderblock should be, because the shorter timeframe suggests a higher risk to reward entry model, yet in this case, the M5 ODB was above the higher timeframes, and the liquidity below the M5 chart was never even tested. (I need to make a note of this observation to see if this is a recurring theme with orderblock setups) (or have chatgpt make it a rule). I am still unsure fully of the timeframe correlations between the lower timeframes, and other notes and journaling sessions in the past have suggested that I should just wait for the same timeframe correlations for entry. (For example) If I am approaching an M15 orderblock, to wait for an M15 price action reaction off of this orderblock would usually suggest confirmation for an entry. But I am going to have to backtest that data vs the data that suggests that just because an orderblock is closed through on shorter timeframes, does not necessarily mean that the orderblock level is invalid, it may simply suggest that the setup is taking place on a higher timeframe. I must figure this out to know the higher probability entry model. 

I also have to define when an orderblock is completely canceled, and It could be that if any timeframe such as the same timeframe or higher closes above or below a key orderblock, than that orderblock is cancelled. 

I noted an example of a bearish H2 orderblock on the same chart that wasnt tapped into when the market was squeezing higher, and the price action reaction is on the M15 timeframe, and it clearly fails. Mutiple times. This would have given many short signals had we taken the exact same approach, so clearly, this entry model only works under specific market contexts. And by the time it reached this bearish H2 orderblock setup, the line in the sand was already breached on the H12 chart at the 18298 level, which suggests that the daily trend for the day was clearly UP. And the draw on liquidity was targeting the prior day high from the trend shift, because it was the next H12 and daily draw on liquidity higher, therefor invalidating this orderblock setup, and suggesting that all of the levels would be blown through. 

 

Whats most difficult about catching the H2 orderblock setup from the overnight session, was because at this point, the draw on liquidity appeared lower. We had displacement short from the 5D 5M MONTH VWAP, suggesting the next target had a draw on liquidity lower, and the line in the sand was not yet breached, suggesting a move lower. Im actually not sure I would have been able to catch this trade up, because it goes against all of the things I just listed for the bearish H2 orderblock. Whos to say that that trade shouldnt have worked for bears, when it worked for bulls prior? Very difficult analysis overall. 

Another indication that the session would likely be bullish, is because when I tried to find a supply areas around the Line In The Sand, I was unable to find any on any timeframes. The M1 orderblock entry provided, was above the LIS. The M5 supply was used. And the M15/ M30/H1/H2/H4/H6 and H12, did NOT have any supply areas to derive from that Line In The Sand, this acted as a clear indication that the Line In The Sand would likely be breached, and intraday trend bias would flip. 

 

(THE 9:30 TRADING SESSION)

During the session that I traded, there were multiple data drops. An 8:30AM drop, a 10AM drop, and a 10:30AM drop. From the moment the jobs report came out, there was a massive rally to the upside, and I had marked the open print from the moment that data was released. Suggesting that, if that low was never breached, then there was likely no reason I should take a short trade, because there was likely a confirmed market sentiment shift towards the upside, rather than the downside. 

I think thats a noteworthy point because, during this trading session, the macro draw on liquidity was still suggesting lower prices, and I figured they would be reached in the overnight, but again, there was a bid caught, that turtle souped the prior day low, and held which was what we discussed earlier. But I remember thinking to myself before I went to sleep, that the draw on liquidity appeared to be lower, and that if the market did happen to catch a bid, I should likely reverse my thesis from bearish to bullish in the morning, because I didnt see any reason why that draw on liquidity shouldnt have been reached. So between the overnight bid hold, and the release of the premarket data that spiked up, and was never retested or breached, the long side was clearly the play.

I saw a setup on the 5 minute chart from the 9:30 open, that closed below the 21 ema, and immediately closed back above on the next 5 minute candle, I had a strong gut feeling that was the entry long of the day, and what do you know? thats exactly what it was. The bearish to bullish variation on the M5 chart, stops at the LOD, never breaching the data drop. At this point, from the start of the 9:30 open, the H6, H4, H2 & H1 trends were all trending higher, and as clearly stated in my journal in prior journaling sessions, if the H6 trend reverses against the H12 LIS (Line in the sand) then there is a high possibility that there will be a reversal on the daily candle, and the daily bias and macro trend. The line in the sand also provided a pretty solid long entry opportunity, even as the trend higher was on the overextended side. 

 

 

 

 

H12 Bearish LIS, M1 Bearish Orderblock, M15 Bearish Orderblock, M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M30 Bearish Orderblock, M30 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M5 Bearish Orderblock, M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, No VWAP Extremity, Playbook , Trade Of The Day , wrong bias otd,

Refined Notes

Loss Analysis and Key Takeaways

$600 Loss Overview:

• Missed a massive supply zone near the H12 LIS (Line in the Sand).
• The supply zone ran through M1, M5, M15, and M30 order blocks from the LIS.

Technical Analysis Improvement:

• New Rule: Mark untapped supply and demand areas on the H12 lines in the sand, highs, and lows to avoid missing future entries.
• Cannot solely rely on VWAP Band extremities or the first VWAP area when the market opens in the middle of nowhere.

Entry Criteria and Strategy Adjustment

Order Block Analysis:

• Mark Prevalent Order Blocks: In the direction of the LIS, identify and mark the most relevant order blocks.
• Timeframe Correlation:
  • For each order block, wait for the reaction on the corresponding timeframe.
  • Example:
    • For an M30 order block, wait for an M30 reaction.
    • For an M15 order block, wait for a 15-minute reaction.
    • This applies similarly to M5, M1, etc.
  • Enter only when the price action reaction aligns with the order block's timeframe.

Chart Adjustments:

• Immediately start marking order blocks on charts to avoid relying solely on VWAP bands.

End of Session Reflection:

• The session ended with a bounce from the prior daily order block.
• This bounce was in confluence with:
  • 90-day 61.8% Fibonacci level.
  • Monthly ODB (Order Block).

Fibonacci Confirmation:

• 90D Model Layout:
  • Use the 90D Fibonacci with the 180 H4 default timeframe, which encompasses the swing low to high.
  • Use H4 confirmation to take trades.

By implementing these refined strategies and rules, future trades can be more accurately executed, reducing the likelihood of missing significant market signals and enhancing overall trading performance.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

So I had a $600 loss today, and I just had to go over it with a fine tooth comb and see what I missed. And clearly enough, There was a massive supply zone near the H12 LIS that I completely missed, and that ran from the M1, M5, M15 & M30 Orderblocks from the LIS. 

So from now on, when I am doing technical analysis. Any H12 lines in the sand, Highs & Lows, I will now mark the untapped Supply & Demand areas, so that I wont miss another entry like the one provided today. Because clearly, I cant just solely rely on the VWAP Band extremities, or the first area of VWAP to play off of first when the market opens in the middle of nowhere.

The rule will be that I will mark the most prevalent orderblocks in the direction of the LIS, but the orderblock timeframe, must correlate with the price action reaction entry model.

So for example, if we have an M30 Orderblock, we wait for the M30 reaction, If we have a M15 Orderblock, we wait for the 15 minute reaction, same applies to the 5M, 1M etc. Any orderblock that we play, must have correlating timeframe price action reaction to enter. I will have to start putting these on my charts immediately so that I dont just solely rely on the bands. 

So the session today ended with a bounce of the prior daily orderblock. Also in confluence with the 90D 61.8% fibonacci & Month ODB For this fibonacci confirmation, since I do not yet have a layout for a 90D model, I will use the 90D fibonacci, with the 180 H4 default timeframe, since it is the next timeframe up that encompasses the swing low to high. And I will use an H4 confirmation to take the trade. 

9:30 Open Short, Daily Bearish Trend Shift, Daily DOL Lower, Gap Below VWAP Lowerband, H12 Bearish Trend Shift, Playbook , PML Short, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Sell Stop Order, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Lowerband Down Trend, Weekly DOL Lower,

Trade Summary for July 24, 2024

---

Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 4:50 PM
• Status: Closed
• Asset: /MNQN24
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 9:30 Open Short
  • Daily Bearish Trend Shift
  • Daily DOL Lower
  • Gap Below VWAP Lowerband
  • H12 Bearish Trend Shift
  • Playbook
  • PML Short
  • Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap
  • Sell Stop Order
  • Trade Of The Day
  • VWAP Lowerband Down Trend
  • Weekly DOL Lower

Notes:

• 10:05 AM:

  • Premarket Analysis:

    • Noticed a gap between the prior day close and premarket open, below the 1 Day VWAP lower band, indicating bearish displacement.
    • Attempted a long position off the next VWAP band which failed, reinforcing a bearish trend shift.

  • Trade Execution:

    • Shorted the PML (Pre-Market Low) due to clear stop-loss placement and strong downside pressure.
    • Anticipated a trend day given the downside action on the weekly chart and the market being in a discount area on multiple timeframes.
    • Observed zero drawdown from entry, indicating strong downside pressure and a well-timed entry.

• 10:40 AM:

  • The market continued making lower lows with no clear downside target due to distant DOL (Draw on Liquidity).
  • The VWAP and 21 EMA on the M2 chart indicated a consistent downtrend.
  • Entry experienced no retests, further validating the strength of the position.

• 12:30 PM:

  • Closed the trade with a profit of over $500, bringing the account over the $1K mark.
  • Decision to lock in profits was based on a successful morning session and strong performance.

Key Takeaways:

• Right:

  • Effective premarket analysis identified key gaps and trends, leading to a high-probability short setup.
  • Correctly identified the PML as a strategic entry point with minimal risk.
  • The trade execution was well-timed with no drawdown, indicating strong market understanding.

• Wrong:

  • Initial hesitation to confirm the bearish trend shift earlier could have improved entry precision.

Outcome: Successfully executed a short trade based on premarket analysis and trend confirmation, resulting in a profit of over $500. The strategy of letting the trade run with stops at session highs proved effective, and the consistent analysis and execution aligned with the identified patterns and signals.

Overall Summary: The trading session was marked by a disciplined approach, leveraging multi-timeframe analysis to confirm a bearish bias. The entry at the PML was well-placed, experiencing no drawdown and indicating strong downside pressure. The decision to lock in profits at $500 was prudent, demonstrating effective trade management and risk control. This trade reinforces the importance of thorough premarket analysis and strategic entry points, contributing to the overall success of the trading session.

 

 

 

 

10:05 AM. So im currently in a trade, I shorted the PML and its in the money, during the premarket session, I noticed a gap between the prior day close, and the pre market open. And this was under a key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, signaling clear displacement below the key band. I tried a long off of the next VWAP band, and that broke. It was after that loss that I confirmed the shift in direction, when I could have confirmed it after the gap. Also, I could have set an entry where my stop was on the overnight long entry attempt. 

The reason I shorted the PML is because it was the only area upon open, that I could see a clear stoploss placement, so I used it as my entry. Im currently not sure how low this is going to drop, as we hit the first wk DOL in the overnight session. But the next day, week, and month lower DOL, is very far away, so I honestly removed a target to the downside, and im just letting it drop. With this type of downside action, on weekly chart moves, these are usually where we get trend days. Also, we are technically in a discount area, on multiple timeframes, so usually when that happens, no one wants to short, because it appears we are low in the range, and also, no one wants to long, because the sellside pressure is so strong, these tend to be the days where everyone just sits on the sidelines and misses big moves. 

Another strong signal for this short, was the I went under no drawdown from the time of entry, which signals how strong the downside pressure really is. Im already up 200 points.

Also, a key tell that the downtrend would continue from the gap, is that it also changed the direction of the H12 trend, which is obvously half the amount of time of a full daily candle, so it usually confirms directional bias. 

And, on the daily chart, with the prior day close, suggested that the next target higher would be the prior day high wick, and upon the opening of the next day gap, it shifted the daily trend, as the prior day low was broken, and suggested a draw on liquidity at the 2 day prior bar low, near the lower weekly draw on liquidity. And the gap created earlier in the week, off of that chop out 30 day fibonacci trade I took, has been completely absorbed now at the time of writing this. 

So overall, this gap between the prior day close and premarket open was a major tell, and can act as displacement to confirm breaks of major levels. It happened at the beginning week gap, claiming the prior month low, which was the turtle soup type of trade that I was looking for. 

I think for now I will make a new rule, that if the H12 trend is going against the VWAP Upper or Lowerband Buy Or Sell signals, than I can not take that trade. 

My current plan for this trade, is to literally just let it drop for the duration of the trading session. With stops at session HOD, which I dont think will be triggered. Obviously I can be wrong, but I think Im willing to take the bet, as I should be increasing my risk slightly with my journaling data, and because we are now 3 plus weeks into this evaluation. But, the VWAP and the Lowerband are consistenly downtrending, which I take as a continuation sell signal, and massive downside volume. 

 

10:40 AM. Still making lower lows, still no downside target, becuase the next DOL is very far away. Still in a consistent downtrend on the VWAP, and consistently holding below the 21 EMA on M2 chart. The interesting part about my entry, is that not only did it incur zero drawdown, but it also didnt experience any retests of my price. This strongly signals a great entry price. 

12:30PM i just got back from a walk. decided to lock it up. im happy with todays profits over $500 dollars. its put my account over the 1K mark

2 Day Anchored VWAP Short, 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short, Daily Bearish Structure, Daily Bearish Trend, H1 TrailStop, H2 TrailStop, M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation, Playbook , PML Target, Prior Day High Break & Reversal, Trade Of The Day , Week Range, Wk Bullish Structure, Wk Bullish Trend,

Trade Details: July 15, 2024

• Status: No Trade Day (Execution Issues)
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 15, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 2 Day Anchored VWAP Short
  • 5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep
  • Daily Bearish OrderBlock Short
  • Daily Bearish Structure
  • Daily Bearish Trend
  • H1 TrailStop
  • H2 TrailStop
  • M5 Bullish to Bearish Variation
  • Playbook
  • PML Target
  • Prior Day High Break & Reversal
  • Trade Of The Day
  • Week Range
  • Wk Bullish Structure
  • Wk Bullish Trend

Notes:

No Trade Day: Executional issues with APEX prevented trade execution. Encountered 'trading temporarily halted' error.

Trade of the Day Setup:

Observations:

• Anchored VWAP Analysis:

  • Analyzed the 2 Day Anchored VWAP during the premarket session.
  • Identified that the prior day high and low were distant.
  • Noted the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided a short signal at the top of the band.

• Daily Chart Analysis:

  • Suggested a draw on liquidity to the prior day low due to the daily candle downtrend.
  • Weekly chart indicated a draw on liquidity to the prior week high because of the weekly uptrend.

Trade Setup:

• Entry:

  • Best timeframe for execution: M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal.
  • Used the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V (or ^).
  • Executed with a sell stop order.
  • Stop loss: Set at the high of the day (HOD).

• Orderblock Rejections:

  • Observed 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections.
  • Execution could have been on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5).

Future Strategy Adjustments:

• Execution Timeframe:

  • When encountering a new weekly range, refer back to this setup.
  • Adjust from the M1 timeframe to a higher execution timeframe such as M5 or M15.

• Execution Data:

  • More data should suggest the best possible approach.
  • Refer to M5 executions for daily levels, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, unless proven otherwise.

Mental Trade:

• Mental Long Entry:

  • Mentally executed a long entry off the initial move up from market open.
  • The trade wound up failing.
  • It was beneficial not to trade today, as it likely prevented a loss.

• Setup Classifications:

  • A Side Setup: Initial move.
  • B Setup: Break and retest with high probability at orderblocks with unfilled orders.
  • C Setup: To be defined in the future.

---

Action Points:

1. Higher Timeframe Confirmation:

   • Utilize higher timeframes like the H12 to confirm trends before changing bias.

2. Execution Timeframe:

   • Default to higher timeframes (M5, M15) for execution around daily levels, prior day highs, weekly Anchored VWAP bands, and Daily Orderblocks.

3. Avoid Trading on Execution Issues:

   • If trading is halted, use the time to observe and mentally execute trades to refine strategy without risking capital.

4. Follow Setup Classifications:

   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me. Currently having executional problems with APEX. They are not allowing my to execute any trades, and im getting a 'trading temporarily halted' 

But here is the trade of the day setup.

For some reason, I was referring yesterday, to the anchored VWAP when analyzing the next potential range setup. I noticed in the premarket session, that the prior day high and the prior day low, were quite far away, and that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP provided todays short signal at the top of the band. 

On todays opening, the Daily chart was suggesting a draw on liquidity to the prior day low, because of the daily candle downtrend. And also, suggesting a weekly draw on liquidity to the prior week high, because of the weekly uptrend.

So this is an interesting setup that occured today, and im seeing some correlation with higher timeframe setups, and incorporating a VWAP to a wider range based on that. I just havent yet figured out how to correlate it, or how to find it again in the future. I was kind of just going off of gut instinct yesterday on my sunday analysis when I figured that the 2 Day Anchored VWAP would provide an accurate signal for todays trading session that I missed. 

Also, the best timeframe to execute this setup was on the M5 chart following the break of the prior day high for a reversal, and the 2 Day Anchored VWAP Upperband for a short on the correct side of the V, or in this case ^, with a sell stop order. With stops at HOD. 

There has also been 2 consecutive Daily Bearish Orderblock rejections, with this day included, and the trade could have been executed on the 5D 5 Minute timeframe (M5)

So in the future, when we see a new weekly range created. We will refer back to this, and adjust from the M1 timeframe, likely to a higher execution timeframe such as the M5 or M15 chart. More data should suggest the best possible approach, but as of today, the next time we reach a daily level, prior day high, weekly range Anchored VWAP bands, or a Daily Orderblock, we will refer to M5 executions, unless proven otherwise.

Another thing, we took a mental trade today, since we were unable to execute, and it was a mental long entry off of the first initial move up from market open. And it wound up failing. So overall, I guess it was a good thing that we couldnt trade today, because I would have likely taken that loss. So in the future, we will only intend to play the A side of each setup, which is the initial move. B setups will be classified as break and retests, with the highest probability retests being at orderblocks where there are unfilled orders. And we will define C setups in the future.

5 Day High to 5 Day Low GAP Liquidity Sweep, 8:30 DATA, Blue Zone, DATA Setup, H1 Bearish Trend, H1 Bullish Structure, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H6 Bearish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation DATA Reaction, Playbook , PPI, Trade Of The Day , Uptrend Continuation, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside),

Trade Setup Analysis for July 12, 2024

Key Points from Notes:

• Missed Opportunity: Long entry off the 8:30 data reaction was identified but not taken due to the position size calculator suggesting the stop loss was too far.
• Wake-Up Time: Waking up at 8:30 on the dot caused you to miss the potential long opportunity and affected your preparation for the 9:30 trading session.
• Market Context:
  • The H12 trend was still down, suggesting a continuation lower.
  • Weekly DOL far below indicated a potential downside target.
  • The bottom band of the VWAP was tested, suggesting a possible top to bottom band move.
• BLUE ZONE: The data reaction held the BLUE ZONE, indicating a possible shift in directional bias.
• VWAP Bands: Confluence of data release with the VWAP bands could strengthen the given signal.

Things Done Right:

1. Immediate Stop Losses: Took immediate stop losses on the M1 chart and used trail stops.

Things Done Wrong:

1. Overtrading: Took 5 trades total; should have walked away after 2 consecutive losses.
2. Going Against Data Reaction: Ignored the data release reaction, which held significant support levels.
3. Late Wake-Up: Did not wake up at least 1 hour before the major market data release.

Recommendations and Checklist

Recommendations:

1. Preparation:

   • Wake-Up Time: Wake up at least 1 hour before any major market data release to analyze premarket conditions and prepare for potential setups.
   • Data Impact: Always consider the impact of significant data releases on market direction.

2. Trade Management:

   • Stop Losses: Continue using immediate stop losses and trail stops but review the placement to ensure they are not too tight.
   • Limit Trades: Limit the number of trades to avoid overtrading. Consider stopping after 2 consecutive losses to reassess the strategy.

3. Market Context:

   • Trend Alignment: Ensure trades align with the dominant trend (H12 trend in this case).
   • BLUE ZONE Analysis: Pay attention to BLUE ZONES and their confluence with major levels like VWAP bands.

4. Review and Adapt:

   • Trade of the Day: Identify and review the best trade setup of the day to create a playbook strategy.
   • Emotional Discipline: Maintain emotional discipline and avoid revenge trading after consecutive losses.

Structured Checklist

Before Market Open:

1. Wake up at least 1 hour before any major data release.
2. Review and analyze the premarket session for potential setups.
3. Identify significant data releases and their potential impact.

Pre-Trade:

1. Confirm the dominant trend (H12, daily).
2. Check for confluence of BLUE ZONES with major support/resistance levels.
3. Evaluate the VWAP bands and their relationship with current price action.
4. Use the position size calculator to determine appropriate position size and stop loss levels.

During Trading:

1. Limit to a maximum of 2 trades if initial trades result in losses.
2. Use immediate stop losses and trail stops as needed.
3. Avoid overtrading and stick to the planned setups.

Post-Trade:

1. Review the day's trades and identify the "Trade of the Day."
2. Update the playbook with new setups and observations.
3. Reflect on emotional discipline and areas for improvement.

Playbook Strategy for July 12, 2024

• Pattern: 8:30 DATA, H12 Bearish Trend Reversal, VWAP Upperband Breakout (Upside)
• Setup: Look for long entries off the data reaction if the BLUE ZONE and VWAP upper band confluence holds.
• Entry Criteria: Enter long on M1 bullish variation signals if confluence levels are respected.
• Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the BLUE ZONE or significant support levels identified in the premarket analysis.
• Take Profit: Target VWAP upper band or significant resistance levels based on trend and market context.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today was a losing day, I lost 5 trades in a row on tight M1 stoplosses. When I was evaluating the premarket session, I analyzed a scenario where I could have went long off the the 8:30 data reaction, but when I put it into my position size calculator, it was suggesting that the data reaction stoploss was too far from Premarket Open print, and the M1 LONG signal off of the Bearish to Bullish Variation.

I also woke up at 8:30 ONTHEDOT, so I decided to pass up on the potential long oppt. and just wait for the 9:30 trading session.

Anaylzing the move in hindsight, that long entry was the A+ setup for the day, and in the future I will have to incorporate the first big data drop for that trading session as the deciding factor for direction OTD.

There was a weekly DOL far below after the prior day Daily downtrend shift, suggestion that the WEEK DOL could be the next target, and around 8:30, the H12 trend was still down, as well as the H12 structure, indicating that the market should continue lower.

I also figured that around 8:49, since the bottom band of the VWAP was tested on the data release, that we could potentially see a TOP to BOTTOM band move since the technical upside target was reached within the range. And I thought that upon 9:30 open, we could see a flush down/hold at the bottom band/Long oppt scenario if we were unable to sweep the data lows, providing for a higher R/R and lower risk long from the bottom band if presented. 

Another thing to note, is the Blue ZONE that held from the data reaction. have seen consistency thus far with BLUE ZONES, which are DOL(BSL&SSL) areas, that are in sequence with major highs and lows across all timeframes/timelines

This type of DOL BLUE ZONE, happened prior, and I have noticed, act as a sufficient 'Line In The Sand' area. And when breached, they should usually break hard and provide a momentum increase of stop hunting. But when these areas are held, it usually means that the 'Line In The Sand' was held, and that the directional bias has been decided

Also, if the data release has a confluence with a TOP or BOTTOM VWAP band, it could likely have more strength in the givin signal

Overall, the deciding factor of todays trend was the DATA release, and it completely reversed the market trend which provided me with a bearish signal to go off of. Very tricky day.

Although my position size calculator suggested that the stoploss was too far, I think I could have still just taken the strength of the HOLD signal, and taken my chances. My size was still low, and I could have recuperated if it went against me. But that could definitely just be hindsight bias, because had the trade went against me, I would be writing that the PMH to premarket open print provided higher R/R, and would be typing the exact opposite here. It really feels like one of those days of inneviatble loss, where my only thing I could have done right today, is just take the 2 losses and walk.

 

(Things I Did Right)

- Taking my immediate stoplosses on the M1 chart, trailstopping from the time on entry

 

(Things I Did Wrong)

- Overtrading (I took 5 trades total, when I should have walked away from the computer after 2 losses in a row)

- Going against the Data Release Reaction HOLD of the Bottom VWAP Band, The Prior Day Low & 5 Day Low Draw On Liquidity HOLD, and the M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation indicating demand

- Not waking up at least 1 hour before major market data release

 

 

8:30 DATA, 9:30 Open Retest Short, All Bullish SIgnal, All Time Highs, CPI, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Trail Stop, Playbook , Pre Market Open Short, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Short, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Analysis of July 11, 2024

Key Points:

• Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
• Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
• Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
• Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Discipline and Routine:

   • Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
   • Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.

2. Missed Opportunities:

   • While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
   • Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.

3. Trade of the Day Analysis:

   • Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
   • Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.

4. Risk Management:

   • Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
   • Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy

Playbook Development

1. Setup Identification:

   • Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
   • Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.

2. Execution Guidelines:

   • Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
   • Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.

3. Review and Adapt:

   • Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
   • Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.

Checklist for Future Trades

1. Preparation:

   • Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
   • Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.

2. Execution:

   • Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
   • Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.

3. Reflection:

   • Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
   • Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.

By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.

I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.

Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.

One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.