9:30 Open To Pre Market Open Gap Down,
All Time High Failure,
All Time Highs,
Bullish Pre Market,
Failure on 2nd ATH,
H1 Bearish Structure,
H1 Bearish Trend,
H1 Trail Stop,
H12 Bullish Structure,
H12 Bullish Trend,
H2 Bearish Structure,
H2 Bearish Trend,
H2 TrailStop,
H4 Bearish Trend,
H4 Bullish Structure,
H6 Bearish Trend,
H6 Bullish Structure,
M1 Short,
M15 Bullish to Bearish Variation,
Powell,
premarket open limit long failure,
Trade Of The Day ,
VWAP Upperband short,
VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,
Insights and Recommendations:
What You Did Right:
- Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
- Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
- Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
- Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
- Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
- Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.
What You Can Improve:
- Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
- VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
- Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
- Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.
Next Steps:
- Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
- Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
- Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
- Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.
Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.
Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.
Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.
I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day.
Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.
I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.
ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.
(Things I did right)
- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan
- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH
- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion
- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level
- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade
- Sizing with Open Print Theory
- Trading with a playbook concept
- Following my hard stoplosses
- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.
- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.
- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket
(Things I did wrong)
- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.
Adjustments to strategy
- Potential +2.7 UpperBand & -3.2 lowerband VWAP adjustment
- Potential NO TRADING signal before Jerome Powell
