Well, now we have the data 2 back up the range of liquidity when there are daily, multi day, and weekly trend shifts. We can now look to the moving averages to be swept for the full range, or for 50% and 61.8% retracements to play the direction.
What paid today compared to the horror show yesterday, was patience. This market is trading very thick, and I have to just stick to my short term 1 minute and 5 minute price imbalances, but its very boring currently to watch price because these are massive price imbalances to opportunites arent coming around often and when they do, they happen very quickly. B
But we finally broke the negative streak since the inception of this funded account, and we now have 2 days of 200 or more, 3 more and we can get our first payout! lets go!!!
You woke up late and missed key setups, resulting in the break of your 6-day green streak during this evaluation. Starting late disrupted your usual flow and mindset.
Market Bias Conflicts:
The market presented conflicting biases, making it difficult to align with a clear direction. You were waiting for an "easy money trade" off the VWAP bands, but market indecision caused confusion.
You observed a repetitive pattern of 9:30 short opportunities and end-of-day long opportunities with overnight moves higher. You are considering holding an overnight long trade, targeting a draw on liquidity around 19870 due to the weekly downtrend reversal and untapped liquidity on the weekly order block.
Missed Setup from Yesterday:
Yesterday’s setup hit your profit target before the 9:30 open, and you noted that this should have indicated that the price would likely come down, but you initially missed this clue.
You felt frustration about missing out on a potential 4R+ trade due to not being able to hold overnight positions.
Failed Easy Money Trade:
Your easy money trade and bullish line in the sand failed, suggesting a possible manipulation stop hunt.
You followed your rules by not executing a short trade because the 1-minute candle came just ticks away from the VWAP upper band, even though you accurately called the false break to the upside in the chatroom. This missed opportunity weighed heavily as the exact trade unfolded after you passed on it.
Choppy Price Action:
You faced frustrating and choppy price action around the lower band, with constant invalidation of signals. Both the first and second trades were stopped out, with one possibly being a stop hunt.
The second trade reversed right after hitting your stop-loss, reinforcing the idea of manipulation and adding to the mental frustration.
Contradictory Signals & Missed Alerts:
You struggled with contradictory signals, especially around the 1-minute demand level where price traded into the level but didn’t trigger your alert. This left you uncertain about the reliability of your signals.
You also identified an untapped demand area below the prior day’s low, leaving you concerned about whether price would sweep the longs out before potentially moving up.
Caution Regarding Overnight Trading:
Despite frustrations, you’re wary of overnight trading scenarios, fearing a nightmare where you trade throughout the night only for the setup not to play out.
Key Learnings and Adjustments:
Stick to the Plan, but Be Open to Adjustments: The strict adherence to your VWAP level rules prevented you from taking what could have been a profitable short trade. While rules are important, consider incorporating flexibility for trades that come very close to key levels.
Focus on Higher Timeframes for Direction: The choppy and confusing price action on the 1-minute chart could be resolved by focusing on higher timeframe setups, reducing the noise and uncertainty around micro-level decisions.
Recognize Repeated Patterns: You’ve noticed a consistent market pattern (9:30 short followed by end-of-day longs), which is valuable for planning future trades. Keep this in mind for upcoming sessions.
Frustration from Missed Opportunities: Missing out on potential 4R trades due to the inability to hold overnight positions added frustration. This might indicate a need to consider alternative strategies to participate in overnight moves without breaking rules.
Manage Overnight Risk: Your concerns about taking overnight trades are valid, and it’s important to weigh the potential rewards against the risk of trading throughout the night with uncertain outcomes.
In summary, today's session highlighted the challenges of conflicting signals, the importance of flexibility within your system, and the need for greater clarity in your approach when the market is choppy. Keep refining your system to accommodate these nuances.
woke up late. And broke my 6 day green streak on this evaluation.
The market was very conflicting between both biases on the day, so my approach for the trading session was that I was going to wait for an 'easy money trade' against the extremities on one of the first VWAP bands that were trades into.
Also, my trade setup from yesterday, worked perfectly to my diesred profit target, which was hit before the 9:30 session opened, so because of this, of should have figured that price would come down instead of up.
I also had a gut instinct that longs wouldnt work as well, because yesterday I didnt make much money on longs, because the trade was broken up between the prior eod of day session and the overnight trading session, and I cant hold trades overnight, so I had to only take profit at 1R multiple. Which is really annoying to me because I would have held the trade for a 4R + trade.
But the market for the past 2 sessions is trading as a 9:30 short opportunity, with an end of day long opportunity, with a move higher in the overnight, so for this reason, Im thinking about taking an overnight long trade, to target the draw on liquidity higher which I believe is around 19870. And the only reason I think the market will go higher is because the weekly downtrend reversed in todays trading session, and there is still untapped liquidity on the weekly bearish orderblock to the upside, with buy side liquidity above it.
My easy money trade failed, as well as my bullish line in the sand, 1 minute demand, which reversed. Which could have been a manipulation stop hunt.
I also beloeve I would have caught the short on the trading session, but because the 1 minute candle literally came TICKS, away for the vwap upperband, I didnt execute on the trade, because my rules suggest that I have to wait for price to hit the level exactly and wait for a reaction or its invalidated, I literally called out in the chatroom for tanjas livestream that I was expected a false break to the upside, and that I was looking at a reaction at 19850n short. Well little do you know, that its the exact trade that took place on the session, and because I was ticks away from the upperband level. I never took the trade. And the only trade that was presented to me from that point was the lowerband extremity trade.
And might I add, there was terrible price action around the lowerband. Constantly chopping above and below, signaling a trade, and then it becoming invalidated shortly after.
The first trade I took was a 1 minute variation close back above the lowerband, which also had displacement after a liquidity washout of the 6 hour bullish orderblock, and it failed.
The second trade. I didnt put much weight on the Lowerband, because it was continuosuly giving false signals, and decided to just play the reaction off of the line in the sand. And it literally swept my stoploss, and then immediately went in my direction, without breaching that low for the duration of the trading session, this is what leads me to believe it could be a possible manipulation stophunt.
With that being said, I have a 1 minute demand level marked as my long level of interest, as well as, but it appears that price trades into the level, potentially sweeping the liquidity, YET, it never tiggered my alert. So I am getting so many contradicting signals its almost hard to dechipher anything.
I have also Identified an untapped demand area beneath the prior days low, which is also scary to take longs still because Im unsure if it will trade into that level first and sweep all of the longs out of poisiton prior to potentially moving to the upside.
The market it about to open, and Im just hoping this isnt a nightmare scenario where I am trading throughout the nighttime and overnight session for nothing. Hopefully it pays off.
Best Trading Day: Achieved the best trading day since starting the Topstep evaluation, with the main trade being a "Trade of the Day" setup.
Missed Alarm: Overslept and woke up at 9:30 AM, just as the market opened, missing the premarket routine.
Price Action Focus: Chose to observe pure price action for the first 1-2 hours before entering a trade.
Chase Trade: Felt FOMO due to the initial drop at the open and took a chase short trade when the price traded below the VWAP lower band, targeting the prior day low. Covered the position early out of fear of a squeeze, missing the full move.
Familiar Reversal Setup: Recognized a reversal setup when the 1-minute bar closed above the VWAP lower band, supported by a 5-minute bearish-to-bullish variation. This led to the "Trade of the Day" long position.
Massive Rally: Entered long with a target at the VWAP upper band (320 points away). Trailed the stop after the third failed attempt to break the 2-minute trend to the downside. The market rallied 600 points from the entry, passing several significant levels, including the premarket high and a 4-day fair value gap.
Position Management: Closed the entire position due to having only 1 contract, missing out on holding for the massive move. Would have held longer if more contracts were traded.
Had my best trading day today since starting my Topstep evaluation account. And the main trade I took, was actually a trade of the day setup.
I woke up basically at 9:30 AM on the dot, due to oversleeping past my alarm clock. And from the moment the market opened, it was a drop from the opening bell. My thought process at this time was that I was just going to read pure price action for at least an hour or 2 until I saw a reasonable setup. And the market dropped heavily, inducing a bit of fomo (fear of missing out) for the downside move. I wound up taking a chase trade short, as I saw that price was trading and trending below the VWAP lowerband. because of this, I anticipated more downside to my anticipated price target at that time, which was the prior day low. I sold just a minute short, covering profit from fear of a squeeze to the upside, to watch it immediately drop and hit my target.
As I was monitoring price, I saw a setup occur that I have became familiar with, and that a reversal from a trend below or above a VWAP. And actually, just to note, the short setup for the session on the morning came from a trend above the upperband, which also led to a reversal to the downside. So todays candle was heavily influenced by the prior day candles range.
I was able to lock up the short trade, and I soon as I saw the 1 minute bar close back above the lowerband for a reversal IN CONFLUENCE, with a 5 minute bearish to bullish variation, I decided to take the market long, for the trade of the day setup.
At this time I had a price target back to the VWAP upperband, but it was 320 points away, so I decided to trailstop the positon after the thired attempt to break the 2 minute trend to the downside, and because I was only in with 1 contract, I had to cover the entire position. Had I had 2 or more contracts, I would have held for a massive move, because the market rallied from my entry a staggering 600 points to the upside, as a straight shot up, straight through the pre market high, and through what that time I had marked as an unclosed 3rd candle, 4 day fair value gap rip to the upside, into the 2 day bearish orderblock I had marked from the week prior.
You initially identified potential bullish follow-through based on several technical factors (e.g., untapped demand areas and bullish "Line in the Sand"). However, despite these indicators, the overnight session had a short setup, and the market didn't follow your expected bullish bias. This reveals a mismatch between your analysis and market behavior, suggesting the need to refine your directional bias.
2. Ignoring Higher Timeframe Gaps
One major mistake occurred during the 9:30 session, where you entered based on a 1-minute fair value gap closure without waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes (5-minute and 15-minute). The higher timeframe gaps held more significance, indicating that your entries were premature and lacked multi-timeframe alignment.
3. Misjudging Supply and Demand Zones
You noticed the absence of a 5-minute demand zone in the overnight session, which may have contributed to your failed bullish "Line in the Sand." Similarly, during the 9:30 session, you anticipated that the bearish line in the sand would fail because there was no 1-minute demand zone. This led to a wrong bias and influenced poor trade decisions, including an unnecessary long.
4. Failure to Adapt to Market Conditions
After identifying the shift from a bullish to bearish "Line in the Sand" between the overnight and 9:30 sessions, you failed to adapt quickly enough, sticking to a bullish bias when the market was signaling bearish. In hindsight, your first stop-out could have been the perfect short entry, showing hesitation to flip your bias in real time.
5. Overconfidence in Low Timeframe Setups
You focused on low-timeframe setups (1-minute fair value gap, 1-minute demand area) without giving enough weight to higher timeframes and market structure. This led to false confidence in trades that were ultimately stopped out due to the dominance of larger, more influential market patterns.
6. Overtrading & Emotional Reactions
You took multiple losses during the overnight session and continued trading into the 9:30 session without reassessing market conditions thoroughly. The "easy money trade" you took off the VWAP lower band was another loss, showing a pattern of overtrading rather than waiting for optimal setups.
7. Self-Reflection & Adjustments
You recognize that many of the mistakes are avoidable, such as failing to align with higher timeframes, entering trades without strong confirmations, and misjudging the strength of demand and supply zones. The overall takeaway is that you need to make significant adjustments and improvements to avoid repeating these mistakes.
Key Improvements to Focus On:
Align Entries with Higher Timeframes – Ensure that your 1-minute or short-term entries are confirmed by higher timeframe signals (5-minute, 15-minute).
Respect Market Structure – Be more adaptable when the market structure changes (e.g., when the Line in the Sand flips).
Avoid Premature Bias Shifts – Stick to your plan, but be open to flipping bias when valid signals present themselves.
Reduce Overtrading – Limit the number of trades and ensure each entry has a strong technical basis, especially when early trades result in losses.
Focus on Key Setups – Prioritize higher probability setups and resist taking "easy" trades based on emotional reactions or minor signals.
By improving these areas, you'll be able to make better decisions, minimize losses, and increase your consistency moving forward.
Adjustments for the Next Trading Session:
Align Entries with Higher Timeframes
Focus on higher timeframe confirmations (5-minute, 15-minute) before taking 1-minute setups. Make sure the broader market structure supports your trade idea before entering on a smaller timeframe.
Respect Market Structure
Adapt to market shifts more quickly. If you see a shift in the "Line in the Sand" or market behavior contradicts your initial bias, be prepared to pivot and adjust your strategy, even if it means reversing your directional bias.
Improve Demand and Supply Zone Analysis
Ensure you're analyzing demand and supply zones across multiple timeframes, particularly the higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute). Don’t rely solely on untapped zones in lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute) without supporting evidence.
Wait for Clear Confirmation
Instead of jumping into trades based on lower timeframe signals, wait for clear confirmation. If you're trading a 1-minute fair value gap, make sure there's alignment with higher timeframe gaps or other key levels (e.g., 50% mean reversions on larger timeframes).
Limit Overtrading
Set a rule for yourself to limit the number of trades you take. Once you hit your daily risk limit or experience two losses, step back and reassess the market without rushing into more trades.
Trade Only the Best Setups
Focus on your highest probability setups. Define and stick to "A+ setups" like key trend reversals or clear support/resistance breaks. Avoid chasing trades that don't align with your trading plan.
Key Intention for the Next Trading Session:
"Patience and Confirmation Over Impulse"
Your key focus should be waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entering a trade. Every time you feel the urge to trade based on a lower timeframe signal, stop and check whether higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute, or even H1/H4) align with your idea. This will help you avoid premature entries and impulsive trading decisions.
Not a good trading session for both the overnight and 9:30 open session.
In the overnight, when performing my technical analysis, I noticed a few things.
- We didnt reach the Daily draw on liquidity lower, and we created a slight bullish trend candle formation on the daily chart.
- We still didnt tap into the liquidity higher from the daily bearish fair value gap to the 2 day orderblock, or any liquidity sweeps/runs higher into any 50% mean reversions on higher timeframes
- We had a bullish Line In The Sand at that time
- We had an untapped 1 minute demand area, indicating a potential hold of the lower levels
All of these indicators, suggested to me that we could get potential bullish follow through, because althought I thought overall that the market would see lower prices, I thought in general that the market would want to trade to higher prices first, (ideally around the 2 Day Bearish Orderblock) (After liquidity was swept) to take a sell signal for lower prices. But this didnt happen. It was an overnight short setup from the overnight opening print on the first bullish to bearish variation. Which currently stands as this trading sessions 'Trade Of The Day' setup.
So how did I trade this?
Well, I took 2 losses attempting to trade the 1 minute untapped demand area, and also got caught in a 'bullish line in the sand' reversal.
I then entered shortly after on a 'Bullish Turtle Soup' setup after the liquidity was swept. And this trade was going well for some time, until It failed to reach my overall profit target, and came back to take me out of the trade at breakeven.
Then, I woke up and decided to trade the 9:30 session, and there was a full thing I was noticing from the technicals.
- We flipped from an overnight bullish line in the sand, to a 9:30 session bearish line in the sand.
( And a key observation that I noticed in the failure of the overnight line in the sand, from my estimation, was that it was lacking a 5 minute demand area. None existed, because the liquidity on all 5 minute demands were swept at that time)
Because I thought that because there was no 5 minute demand for the bullish line in the sand, I also noticed that there wasnt a 1 minute demand area that existed for the bearish line in the sand.
This influenced my bias, to believe that the bearish line in the sand would also fail, and that I should approach the 9:30 session with a bullish bias, to tap into more sell side liquidity, and look for an extremity or reversal trade after liquidity was swept.
Well, this didnt happen, and the 30 minute bearish orderblock created off of the bearish line in the sand rejection in the premarket session, at was the high for the 9:30 session open.
The 9:30 session trade that I took, was a 1 minute close above a 1 minute 50% fair value gap, which also aligned in confluence with a close above the 1st deviation moving average. But I didnt wait for the 5 minute 50% fair value gap closure, OR the 15 minute fair value gap closure. Which was clear dispacement lower from the open, with a failure to reverse where I entered long. SO its clear that the higher timeframe fair value gaps held more weight than the 1 minute fair value gap.
Upon this loss, I took one more final trade on what I have journal as my 'easy money trade' which is a simple reaction at the upper or lower VWAP bands.
In this case, I took a lowerband long setup off of a 1 minute price action reaction (bearish to bullish variation) and took my second loss for the session.
In hindsight, My first stopout ( 1 minute fair value gap failure ) actually could have provided me a short entry trade of the day setup, had I just chose to sell rather than to buy. So I made many mistakes between the overnight and the 9:30 trading sessions.
Overall, I need to make many adjustments to ensure that I solve all of these mistakes and issues. And dont bring it into the next trading week.
Here are the key takeaways from your journaling session, along with a key intention for your next trading day:
Regularly update and monitor Fibonacci retracement levels on your charts, incorporating them with other technical indicators and confirmation signals to enhance your trading strategy.
Key Takeaways:
Market Manipulation Perception: You felt that the market was heavily manipulated today, leading to an unexpected trade outcome. It's crucial to consider this perception and how it might affect your trading strategy and decisions.
Gameplan Adherence: You followed your gameplan closely but acknowledged areas for improvement, such as taking some risk off the table and adjusting your trailing stop loss.
Volume and Price Action Analysis:
Lack of volume expansion following the 8:30 data release was noted.
The daily chart structure is still bullish, but there's uncertainty due to the bearish engulfing candle on the 12-hour chart.
Risk Management:
You identified that taking some profit at key levels (e.g., Daily Upperband) could have reduced downside risk.
Raising your stop loss to below the demand area created off your long entry could have helped in managing risk better.
Trade Adjustment and Entry Timing:
Your initial long entry was based on multiple confirmations, but the price action deviated from your expectations.
You recognized the missed opportunity to short at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband, although you didn't expect such a significant retracement.
Re-evaluation of Strategies:
You are considering implementing a rule to align your trading with the prevailing moving average bias and VWAP bands.
There is an intention to develop a Fair Value Gap (FVG) strategy to avoid situations where market manipulation and stops affect your trades.
Swing Trade Consideration:
You decided to hold the trade as a swing trade despite its initial drawdown, and you are considering implementing a new trading rule based on your experience.
Key Intention for the Next Trading Day:
Focus on Adapting to Market Conditions and Risk Management:
Given today's experiences, your key intention should be to adapt your trading approach to better manage risk and respond to market conditions. This involves:
Implementing Adaptive Risk Management:
Set tighter stop losses and consider scaling out of positions at key levels to mitigate potential losses.
Monitor volume and price action closely to adjust your stop losses dynamically based on market behavior.
Aligning with the Trend:
Follow your new rule regarding trading in alignment with the moving average bias and VWAP bands. Ensure your trades correspond with the prevailing trend to enhance the probability of success.
Developing and Testing New Strategies:
Begin working on and backtesting your FVG strategy. Having a well-defined plan for handling market manipulation and price reversals will improve your adaptability.
Maintaining Flexibility:
Stay flexible and open to adjusting your strategy as market conditions evolve. Be prepared to pivot if the market shows signs of manipulation or if your initial analysis proves incorrect.
By focusing on these areas, you can enhance your risk management, adapt to market conditions more effectively, and improve the consistency of your trading outcomes.
8:36. Entered long.
10:37AM. Absolutely shocked that my trade didnt go in my favor today. This market feels so immensely manipulated. But I followed my gameplan to the T. Theres a couple things I could have done better, such as taking some risk off of the table by covering into the Daily 1 minute Upperband. I did find it a bit strange that there wasnt volume expansion to the upside off of the 8:30 data release. And I also could have raised my trailing stoploss below the M1 demand area that was created off of my long price.
The 12 hour chart experienced a bearish engulfing candle, which is primarily the main timeframe I trade. So theres really not much I could have done analyzing this at the moment. Also, the daily chart structure is still bullish, and could potentially be creating a FVG bottom wick on the current daily candle. But theres really no telling how much lower this can go. I think the only thing I can do is wait for 1PM orderflow, which would be the next 12 hour open candle.
This was a very interesting trading day. Im still currently in the position because I believe it was likely a swing trade entry. So i decided to hold and the trade is not yet closed. The morning felt manipulated, it turtle souped the 8:30 data lows, which I was given a long signal off of because it wicked the Moving average and the LIS. So there was multiple confirmations to take a long trade.
I figured because yesterdays journaling session suggested that because I went against the predominanent trend, attempted to trade the Upperband of the 5D 5M Month VWAP, I should make an adjustment and simplify my trading system by only switching bias when I have been in every way shape and form invalidated. Today, when the market went against my position, It was very unfortunate as I felt It was the best position I could get at that moment. But I guess this is just trading, price can go against you apparently at any moment in time regardless of how many checks you have in your favor.
So there was a trade presented off of the 1D 1Minute VWAP off of the upperband, for an upperband to lowerband short opportunity. This is actually what I expected to happen, because not only was a friend on mine preparing to trade market open shorts, but also because I seen the price action developing around the upperband, and noticed there was a short opportunity present. I just thought it would likely be a fakeout, and if not a fakeout, I didnt imagine price would retrace as much as it did.
One thing I could have done to avoid this was, A. Take off some profit at the 1D upperband to lower my downside risk, because the 1d 1M VWAP was not exanding to the upside, or signaling any trend continuation at that time. B. I could have raised my stoploss to the 1 minute demand area created off of the long entry signal I took from the moving average & LIS. I labelled it 'Could Have Cut Loss Here'.
I didnt think that a long opportunity would be presented from the open back at the moving average a second time. Because I figured those who traded the data reaction would be the best positioned, or 'early bird gets the worm' type scenario. And i figured that morning shorts would get squeezed out again like the day prior & journaling session suggested.
But this didnt happen, the stops were ran at the CPI data lows, the daily fair value gap was still trying to find a bid on the lower wick, and the market was way below an area where long confirmation could yet again be established. All I did was re enter at the cross of the moving average, which still got me an extension entry on the lower wick of the daily and 12 hour candle.
The position went immediately in the money and experienced almost no drawdown, but my price targets were way higher, which is the reason I am still holding the trade as a swing trade. And its the first swing trade I have yet to backtest.
If it goes in my favor, I will highly consider implementing a new trading rule, which suggests that I can only trade the VWAP band on the 1D 1M chart which corresponds with the prevailing moving average bias.
For example. If the moving average aligns from the VWAP and lowerband, I will think longs. If the moving average aligns with the VWAP and upperband, I will think short, in order to stay with 'the trend is your friend' theory.
Other than that, I think the next think I will have to do it create a FVG strategy that I can implement in the future for the daily chart so that I can avoid being turtle souped and stop ran trying to find a bid on the 3rd candle sequence. Because todays lows were heavily manipulated, and the market topped in the middle of nowhere. I couldnt find any orderblocks or levels on the chart to explain why the market reversed so heavily from where it was. The only indication was the upperband on the 1D 1M VWAP. These are all things I will have to implement in my trading strategy in the future.
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