2D DOL Lower,
8:30 DATA Reversal,
9:30 Open DOL Lower,
9:30 Open Short,
Afterhours Open Short,
Breakeven Trade,
D DOL Lower,
DIdnt Reach Profit Target,
DOL Higher,
LIS (Bearish),
LIS Reversal,
M30 Bearish Orderblock S,
M5 FVG Short,
NFP,
Turtle Soup Long,
Upperband to Lowerband Short,
VWAP Upperband Target,
Wk Bearish to Bullish Trend Shift,
1. Contradictory Market Bias
- You initially identified potential bullish follow-through based on several technical factors (e.g., untapped demand areas and bullish "Line in the Sand"). However, despite these indicators, the overnight session had a short setup, and the market didn't follow your expected bullish bias. This reveals a mismatch between your analysis and market behavior, suggesting the need to refine your directional bias.
2. Ignoring Higher Timeframe Gaps
- One major mistake occurred during the 9:30 session, where you entered based on a 1-minute fair value gap closure without waiting for confirmation from higher timeframes (5-minute and 15-minute). The higher timeframe gaps held more significance, indicating that your entries were premature and lacked multi-timeframe alignment.
3. Misjudging Supply and Demand Zones
- You noticed the absence of a 5-minute demand zone in the overnight session, which may have contributed to your failed bullish "Line in the Sand." Similarly, during the 9:30 session, you anticipated that the bearish line in the sand would fail because there was no 1-minute demand zone. This led to a wrong bias and influenced poor trade decisions, including an unnecessary long.
4. Failure to Adapt to Market Conditions
- After identifying the shift from a bullish to bearish "Line in the Sand" between the overnight and 9:30 sessions, you failed to adapt quickly enough, sticking to a bullish bias when the market was signaling bearish. In hindsight, your first stop-out could have been the perfect short entry, showing hesitation to flip your bias in real time.
5. Overconfidence in Low Timeframe Setups
- You focused on low-timeframe setups (1-minute fair value gap, 1-minute demand area) without giving enough weight to higher timeframes and market structure. This led to false confidence in trades that were ultimately stopped out due to the dominance of larger, more influential market patterns.
6. Overtrading & Emotional Reactions
- You took multiple losses during the overnight session and continued trading into the 9:30 session without reassessing market conditions thoroughly. The "easy money trade" you took off the VWAP lower band was another loss, showing a pattern of overtrading rather than waiting for optimal setups.
7. Self-Reflection & Adjustments
- You recognize that many of the mistakes are avoidable, such as failing to align with higher timeframes, entering trades without strong confirmations, and misjudging the strength of demand and supply zones. The overall takeaway is that you need to make significant adjustments and improvements to avoid repeating these mistakes.
Key Improvements to Focus On:
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Align Entries with Higher Timeframes – Ensure that your 1-minute or short-term entries are confirmed by higher timeframe signals (5-minute, 15-minute).
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Respect Market Structure – Be more adaptable when the market structure changes (e.g., when the Line in the Sand flips).
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Avoid Premature Bias Shifts – Stick to your plan, but be open to flipping bias when valid signals present themselves.
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Reduce Overtrading – Limit the number of trades and ensure each entry has a strong technical basis, especially when early trades result in losses.
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Focus on Key Setups – Prioritize higher probability setups and resist taking "easy" trades based on emotional reactions or minor signals.
By improving these areas, you'll be able to make better decisions, minimize losses, and increase your consistency moving forward.
Adjustments for the Next Trading Session:
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Align Entries with Higher Timeframes
- Focus on higher timeframe confirmations (5-minute, 15-minute) before taking 1-minute setups. Make sure the broader market structure supports your trade idea before entering on a smaller timeframe.
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Respect Market Structure
- Adapt to market shifts more quickly. If you see a shift in the "Line in the Sand" or market behavior contradicts your initial bias, be prepared to pivot and adjust your strategy, even if it means reversing your directional bias.
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Improve Demand and Supply Zone Analysis
- Ensure you're analyzing demand and supply zones across multiple timeframes, particularly the higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute). Don’t rely solely on untapped zones in lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute) without supporting evidence.
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Wait for Clear Confirmation
- Instead of jumping into trades based on lower timeframe signals, wait for clear confirmation. If you're trading a 1-minute fair value gap, make sure there's alignment with higher timeframe gaps or other key levels (e.g., 50% mean reversions on larger timeframes).
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Limit Overtrading
- Set a rule for yourself to limit the number of trades you take. Once you hit your daily risk limit or experience two losses, step back and reassess the market without rushing into more trades.
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Trade Only the Best Setups
- Focus on your highest probability setups. Define and stick to "A+ setups" like key trend reversals or clear support/resistance breaks. Avoid chasing trades that don't align with your trading plan.
Key Intention for the Next Trading Session:
"Patience and Confirmation Over Impulse"
Your key focus should be waiting for higher timeframe confirmation before entering a trade. Every time you feel the urge to trade based on a lower timeframe signal, stop and check whether higher timeframes (5-minute, 15-minute, or even H1/H4) align with your idea. This will help you avoid premature entries and impulsive trading decisions.
Not a good trading session for both the overnight and 9:30 open session.
In the overnight, when performing my technical analysis, I noticed a few things.
- We didnt reach the Daily draw on liquidity lower, and we created a slight bullish trend candle formation on the daily chart.
- We still didnt tap into the liquidity higher from the daily bearish fair value gap to the 2 day orderblock, or any liquidity sweeps/runs higher into any 50% mean reversions on higher timeframes
- We had a bullish Line In The Sand at that time
- We had an untapped 1 minute demand area, indicating a potential hold of the lower levels
All of these indicators, suggested to me that we could get potential bullish follow through, because althought I thought overall that the market would see lower prices, I thought in general that the market would want to trade to higher prices first, (ideally around the 2 Day Bearish Orderblock) (After liquidity was swept) to take a sell signal for lower prices. But this didnt happen. It was an overnight short setup from the overnight opening print on the first bullish to bearish variation. Which currently stands as this trading sessions 'Trade Of The Day' setup.
So how did I trade this?
Well, I took 2 losses attempting to trade the 1 minute untapped demand area, and also got caught in a 'bullish line in the sand' reversal.
I then entered shortly after on a 'Bullish Turtle Soup' setup after the liquidity was swept. And this trade was going well for some time, until It failed to reach my overall profit target, and came back to take me out of the trade at breakeven.
Then, I woke up and decided to trade the 9:30 session, and there was a full thing I was noticing from the technicals.
- We flipped from an overnight bullish line in the sand, to a 9:30 session bearish line in the sand.
( And a key observation that I noticed in the failure of the overnight line in the sand, from my estimation, was that it was lacking a 5 minute demand area. None existed, because the liquidity on all 5 minute demands were swept at that time)
Because I thought that because there was no 5 minute demand for the bullish line in the sand, I also noticed that there wasnt a 1 minute demand area that existed for the bearish line in the sand.
This influenced my bias, to believe that the bearish line in the sand would also fail, and that I should approach the 9:30 session with a bullish bias, to tap into more sell side liquidity, and look for an extremity or reversal trade after liquidity was swept.
Well, this didnt happen, and the 30 minute bearish orderblock created off of the bearish line in the sand rejection in the premarket session, at was the high for the 9:30 session open.
The 9:30 session trade that I took, was a 1 minute close above a 1 minute 50% fair value gap, which also aligned in confluence with a close above the 1st deviation moving average. But I didnt wait for the 5 minute 50% fair value gap closure, OR the 15 minute fair value gap closure. Which was clear dispacement lower from the open, with a failure to reverse where I entered long. SO its clear that the higher timeframe fair value gaps held more weight than the 1 minute fair value gap.
Upon this loss, I took one more final trade on what I have journal as my 'easy money trade' which is a simple reaction at the upper or lower VWAP bands.
In this case, I took a lowerband long setup off of a 1 minute price action reaction (bearish to bullish variation) and took my second loss for the session.
In hindsight, My first stopout ( 1 minute fair value gap failure ) actually could have provided me a short entry trade of the day setup, had I just chose to sell rather than to buy. So I made many mistakes between the overnight and the 9:30 trading sessions.
Overall, I need to make many adjustments to ensure that I solve all of these mistakes and issues. And dont bring it into the next trading week.
