1D 5M (Month VWAP), 1D VWAP Confluence, 50BPS, FOMC Day, LIS (Bullish), LIS M1 Demand Hold, Lowerband to Upperband Long, M5 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M5 Entry, Rate Cut, Take Profit Hit, VWAP (MONTH) Lowerband to Upperband, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, Wk Bearish Orderblock Target,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Improved Mindset and Process:

   • You felt that your trading approach has leveled up, emphasizing the value of journaling and preparation. This shift from impulsive execution to a data-driven strategy, along with the influence of Lance’s quote about work outside of trading, has led to more focused and patient trading.
   • Focusing on Expected Value Dynamics and waiting for full reactions off key levels has sharpened your decision-making, boosting your confidence.

2. Strong Execution During FOMC:

   • You executed with a bullish bias based on solid technical reasons, including a weekly trend shift and untapped liquidity. This analysis led to your best trading day on the evaluation, earning over $600 with just 2 micros, indicating improved performance and risk management.

3. Adaptability and Use of VWAP:

   • You adjusted your strategy by utilizing a longer-term VWAP on the 5-minute chart to confirm entries. This led to a better, more accurate entry from the lower band, reinforcing the importance of using higher timeframe VWAPs in volatile markets.
   • Although you fought for price on the 1-minute chart and faced two stopouts, you recognized that sticking to the 5-minute VWAP would have provided a more optimal, no-drawdown entry.

4. Awareness of Weekly Bearish Orderblock:

   • Despite the bullish bias, you noted the importance of the weekly bearish orderblock that triggered towards the session's end. You plan to monitor closely how the weekly trend interacts with this key resistance level in the next trading session.

5. Contract Rollover Anomaly:

   • You observed an interesting discrepancy between /MNQU24 and /NQ regarding the quarterly draw on liquidity, suggesting that different contracts are giving you different reads on price action. You plan to track this during future rollovers to better understand which contracts hold more weight.

6. Patience and Decision-Making:

   • You demonstrated patience in waiting for your bullish setup to develop, but you also reflected on the importance of simplifying your entry approach by relying more on the higher timeframe charts, which would have prevented multiple stopouts.

Key Learnings and Adjustments:

• Journaling and Preparation: Continue to prioritize reviewing and refining your system outside of market hours, as this has significantly improved your trading approach.
• Stay Focused on Higher Timeframes: Rely more on the 5-minute chart for entry confirmation instead of fighting for price on the 1-minute, which can lead to unnecessary stopouts.
• Monitor Weekly Bearish Orderblock: Pay close attention to how the weekly bearish orderblock and the new trend shift interact in the next session, as this could signal an important turning point for future trades.
• Track Contract Rollover Discrepancies: Stay vigilant regarding discrepancies in liquidity levels between contracts during rollovers to avoid confusion or misreading price action.

This session highlights your growth as a trader and how detailed analysis, patience, and preparation have led to improved results.

 

 

 

Woke up a bit late, around 10:00AM because my alarm clock didnt go off.

Noticed price action was basically untradable on the open, and luckily I fell asleep yesterday while monitoring price action, because the overnight long theory didnt play out, It played out during todays trading session. 

I traded this FOMC like a true elite trader, and I really feel like im stepping into the next level up in my trading career, and I definitely believe that journaling is part of the reason why. As soon as I decided to take a data backed approach to trading, rather than an executional and high pressure decision based trading, it feels like that has put me into the next level. And a quote from Lance hit me hard, and that is, his workday actually starts when the trading day ends. Its all about what you do when the markets not trading, and how you are fine tuning your trading system, and identifying what works well and what doesnt. He compared his quote to a basketball game, where if a professional, only got hours in when they were in game, but never practiced or fine tuned the small things off of the court, then they would fall short during the game, and thats exactly how trading is. Your simply waiting for your setup.

Those quotes, coupled with the concepts of 'Expected Value Dynamics' and trading the "Right Side of The V" has dramatically changed my trading, Because now, I am waiting for full reactions off of the levels im interested in, and my risk is defined, and my edge is high. 

 

With that being said, I came into this trading session (FOMC interest rate decision) with a bullish outlook, specifically because, we shifted trend on the weekly timeframe, and had untapped liquidity and an unfinished auction to the upside, and also, broke the 4 day bearish orderblock weekly trend. So i seen this setup quietly approaching under the radar, while everyone was bearish for the most part. 

I like how consistent I have been as well for this evaluation, it has taken alot of pressure off of me not having to worry about trailing drawdown, breakeven trades, and letting them just work. I also had my biggest trading day so far on this evaluation, with only 2 micros. Making over $600 on the day. 

When I was in my trade, it was for sure the trade of the day setup at that time, but one thing I have to take note of is how the market closed today, and it closed with a trade of the day setup, favoring bears with a short from the weekly bearish orderblock. This is something that im going to have to monitor closely going into tomorrow. And that is, how I should approach the trading day with the right bias, when the weekly bullish trend shift has occured, at the same time that the weekly bearish orderblock bas been triggered, withoutn tapping into the weekly buyside liquidity to the upside. 

So we have a new weekly high, weekly trend shift, weekly orderblock all around the same vicinity. with the draw on liquidity, shifting way to the upside on the next deviation timeframe, (Monthly) at 20262.25.

Im noticing something extremely interesting, and that is, on the new contract roll over for the nasdaq, its displaying that the quarterly draw on liquidity has been breached, which is the first time im seeing this, because on all of the other contracts, it doesnt display that. Im looking at /NQ now, and it is giving me a completely different read of price action, so this is something we are going to have to get to the bottom of. /MNQU24 (prior contract) is also displaying the same thing, that the quarterly draw on liquidity hasent been breached. So we will have to track this closely by the time the next contract rollover comes around. and see is the newer contracts/or older contracts hold more weight. 

 

Now, when I was analyzing an entry for the day, I noticed that, the 1 day VWAP might not have been the best choice, because I felt that price would go higher, but there were so many support levels below in which price could have bounced off of, that I couldnt gauge what would be the best one, so I simply decided to throw on a longer term VWAP on my 5 minute chart, for double the confirmation, and I am very glad I did, because it gave me a great entry from the lowerband, with a bearish to bullish variation for an upside trade. 

I decided to start fighting for price on the 1 minute chart, as it was trend below the 1 Day VWAP lowerband, because I was anticipating a squeeze, and it was also trading my demand area of interest which was yesterdays manipulation stop hunt area, and bullish line in the sand, 1 minute demand. So I figured that if I fought for price on the 1 minute, I could get a great price for the turn of the 5 minute variation.

Due to this, I was stopped out 2 times, and had I just traded off of the 5 minute chart instead, I could have got a no drawdown entry. Which likely would have been favorable. 

I just have such a hard time not executing on the 1 minute because it provides a very deep edge and risk to reward. Had i traded specifically off of the 5 minute chart, I would have gotten a no drawdown entry, but I also would have gotten filled at 19610, and because I fought for price, I had an average price of 19602 with 2 contracts. 

1 Day Moving Average Long, 4D Bearish Orderblock Target, Bullish LIS, Consumer Sentiment , Import and Export Prices, Lowerband to Upperband Long, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Consistency in Strategy: You continued with the setup that's been working well all week—a deep long entry around the pre-market low area—and ended the day green, which reaffirms that your strategy is effective.

2. Premature Profit Taking: Your emotions influenced your decision to cover profits earlier than desired. Although your directional bias was correct, fear of losing out led to smaller gains, when holding longer could have doubled your profit.

3. Resilience in Directional Bias: Despite multiple retests and breakeven exits, you stuck to your directional bias, entering with more conviction each time while staying within your daily loss limit.

4. Adjusting Stop Loss Strategy: After price rallied to the upper band, you moved your stop to breakeven to protect profits. While this was a cautious move, it prevented you from holding the trade to your intended profit target.

5. Sizing Up as a Recovery Mechanism: You incrementally increased position size after losses, staying within your risk management framework. This helped you recover and end the day positive, but it's important to avoid revenge trading impulses.

6. Impact of News Data: The 10 AM consumer sentiment data had a stronger-than-expected market impact. You noted that certain green folder news events can act like red folder news, so it's crucial to account for this in future sessions.

7. Order Management Oversight: You discovered an open position due to not canceling remaining orders after exiting a trade. This oversight could have led to significant unintended losses.

8. Trend and Order Block Alignment: You recognized that order blocks in trend with the timeframe have a higher probability of success, and you'll want to implement this as a rule moving forward.

 

 

Ended todays trading day green. Took the same setup that has been consistent all week, which is a deep long entry around the pre market low area for a move higher as the journal has been suggesting. 

It was definitely a difficult trading day overall, as my first position was taken out at breakeven, as well as my second. And it tricked me to think it would also do the same a 3rd time, which prompted me to cover profits earlier than my desired profit target, and what do you know... it ran to my profit target, and I likely would have made double on todays trading session. 

I just began to start feeling unsure whether or not price would get the rip higher than I was continuosly anticipating over and over again. 

Each trade I entered, I entered with 1 more contract than the trade earlier, because it was still in the path of my directional bias, and i also was staying with in my max loss limit for the trading day. 

It was definitely a tricky trading session because price came back to my demand area entry 2 times before finally rallying higher, and I fought for price pretty aggressively right at market open, and the first retest took me out at breakeven, because price had rallied to the upperband, but I didnt want to cover profit because I had a higher upside target, but I also didnt want to lose on a trade that went that far in the money, so thats when I decided to place my stoploss at breakeven.

My second entry, took me out for a loss, with another price action reaction response at my prior demand area, so yet again for the 3rd time, I re entered long, because I was only down $80 dollars at that time, with a $200 daily loss limit. So i decided to size up with 1 more contract to compensate my pain and suffering in this trade haha. 

It faked a flush down below the VWAP upperband, and I had enough with the trading day, I decided to take the 300 dollar winner which is 10% towards the profit target goal for this evaluation. Just trading the account slow and steady.

I also just took a mental trade short in my head and not on the account, and Im noticing it would have been a loss. And that was a 1 minute and 5 minute reaction at the 4d bearish orderblock. And I think I should implement a rule that if that timeframes trend is going against the orderblock, it is not as strong of a setup, if the orderblock is in trend with the timeframe, it is a stronger setup, and will likely end up with a higher probability of success. 

and also, when my first trade was taken out at breakeven, it was based on a data drop at 10:00AM, which was counted as green folder news, when it really reacted like red folder news. I thought it was quite comical that price moved aggressively as it did, but I will have to remember that consumer sentiment data moves heavier than it may appear. 

 

ALSO, DO NOT FORGET, to hit CANCEL ALL button after you exit a position. During this journaling session, I wasnt even aware that a 2 contract limit order was filled and that I was actively in a position. My account would be taking damage right now if I didnt just notice that. I also missed out on locking in a massive trade as well. 

1 Day Moving Average Long, 1 Minute Entry, 2D Bearish Orderblock Reversal, 2D Close above 2D Bearish O, Daily Bearish Orderblock Target, moving average cross, Premarket Low to P, Trade Of The Day , Turtle Soup, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,

I had a chance to briefly review yesterdays trading session before today trading session (Day After) and I noticed that the 1 Day Moving Average was the perfect entry for yesterdays session, and I likely could have avoided the first stopout had I waited for that entry. I will remember this going into todays trading session. Because I had the moving average turned off yesterday, which is pretty ironic because its the first time I have turned it off in a while, due to the fact that it was minimizing my chart and I couldnt see price very well. Guess I should have kept it. 

 

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. Trade of the Day Setup: Successfully hit the "Trade of the Day" setup, similar to the previous day’s trade.

2. Premarket Analysis on Multi-day Charts:

   • Noted that the 2-day chart closed above a 2-day bearish order block, suggesting potential bullishness.
   • Contradiction with the 4-day chart, which was still in a downtrend unless yesterday’s high was broken.

3. Supply Area Breach as a Bullish Signal: Drew a 1-minute supply zone from the prior day's high, and when price breached that area in the morning, it indicated potential for higher prices.

4. Choppy Market Open: The 9:30 AM session was choppy, with price fighting in an accumulation zone for longs. The VWAP lower band aligned with the 2-day bearish order block, marking a critical "line in the sand."

5. Morning Losses from FOMO and Oversizing: Experienced FOMO, took oversized positions, and suffered larger-than-necessary losses in the morning session. Despite a 33% win rate, ended the day green.

6. Turtle Soup Setup: The final long trade was based on a Turtle Soup setup after the first stop run for longs. Opted for a 1-minute entry due to large candles on the higher timeframes (5 and 2-minute charts).

7. Held for Larger Move: Decided not to take profit at the VWAP upper band, choosing to hold for a larger move since stops were set at breakeven and no risk was left in the trade. The trade eventually hit the higher target at 19,449, the daily bearish order block.

8. Benefit of Multi-day Chart Intervals: Breaking down the daily chart into 1, 2, 3, and 4-day intervals improved the ability to read price action and trends, especially identifying trend shifts on the 4-day chart.

9. Confluence of 2-day Order Block and VWAP: Recognized the importance of the 2-day close above the bearish order block and the VWAP lower band sitting at the order block, focusing on high-probability, low-risk entries.

10. Evaluation Progress and Prop Firm Strategy: Almost halfway to the profit target for the evaluation account. Enjoying the flexibility of trading without a trailing drawdown, which favors the strategy of holding for larger moves. Believes that trailing drawdowns would have limited the ability to hold through significant pullbacks.

 

 

Today was an interesting trading day. I wound up hitting yet again the trade of the day setup, which looked very similar to yesterdays setup.

Going into todays trading day, when I was doing premarket analysis, I noticed that on the 2 day chart, yesterdays 2 days bar, closed above the 2 day bearish orderblock. With that being said, there was still a contradiction because on the 4 day chart, a brand new bar opened today. And price was technically still in a 4 day chart downtrend, unless price was able to take out yesterdays high.

So what I did, was draw a 1 minute supply area from yesterdays high of day, and when I woke up in the morning, I noticed that the high, and the supply area was breached. So this gave me an indiciation that we would likely see higher prices on the day. 

The 9:30 open was pretty sloppy and choppy, and it was a fight for price, as we were in an accumulation zone for longs. And one of the main things I had noticed, was that the lowerband of the VWAP was sitting directly on the 2 day bearish orderblock. So I knew that that area was going to be the line in the sand essentially. 

And the actual line in the sand on the session, was far far below where price was trading, because the 12 hour chart was actually in the process of creating a 3 bar variation for a 12 hour fair value gap. 

I got stop ran in the morning on the first long, and I had fomo and was also getting greedy for a long entry, so I decided to market at prices I shouldnt have been, and I also oversized by 1 contract on the second try, which resulted in a bigger loss than I should have taken in the morning. 

I ended this session with virtually a 33% win rate, yet I am still green on the day. 

When I entered the final long trade, It was a turtle soup setup, after the first stoploss was ran for longs. And it seemed like the first loss was basically inevitable, because I was taking the trade from a 1 minute chart, due to the fact that the candles were massive on the 5 minute, And even the 2 minute as well. So the 1 minute entry was the best for todays session. 

When I was in the long trade, I decided not to take profit at the VWAP upperband, and hold through a rotation for the bigger move, because I was down on the day, I had no risk left on the trade because I had stops set at breakeven, and I didnt see any reason to take profit yet as I had a higher upside target 

I have also noticed that breaking the daily chart up into 1,2,3,4 day intervals really helps me read price action and trend better.

Just simple noticing the trend shift on the 4 day chart, dramatically helped with my daily bias for the day, and also, taking note of the 2d bearish orderblock, the 2 day close above the orderblock, and the lowerband and 2 day orderblock confluence, to really focus on the highest probability, lowest risk entry on the day. And with that being said, we are almost at half the desired profit target to be hit on this evaluation account, and I am really loving the fact that I dont have to trade this prop firm with a trailing drawdown. I believe it favors my strategy more. As i am a daytrader. And I highly believe that if I was trading an apex evaluation with a trailing drawdown, I wouldnt have been able to to hold for the larger move on the day because of how massive the pullback was from the first rotation. 

It hit my profit target as planned at 19449 which was the daily bearish orderblock. And I figured it was a very high chance we would get there, because the 2 day hold, holds more weight than a 1 day supply area. 

8:30 DATA, H6 Bullish Orderblock, Higher DOL Moving Average, Jobless Claims, M1 Demand Entry, M1 Displacement, M5 Bearish to Bullish Variation, premarket high to low 50% , VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband Target,

 

1. Timing and Data Awareness:

   • You woke up at 8:32 AM, just 2 minutes after the 8:30 data drop, and observed M1 displacement at the H6 bullish order block level.
   • The liquidity sweep through the H6 bullish order block suggests you should pay attention to these levels and monitor for potential liquidity draw misses.

2. Importance of Marking Liquidity Levels:

   • The missed lower daily draw on liquidity reinforces the need to consistently mark supply or demand liquidity extremes. This could help anticipate where price is likely to move in the future, giving a clearer roadmap for setups.

3. Chart Timeframe Consideration:

   • You noted that entering the trade on the M1 chart would have resulted in being stopped out at the low of the day before price moved in your direction. Conversely, entering on the M5 chart would have minimized drawdown and improved risk-to-reward.
   • This suggests that using higher timeframes like M5 for entries could offer better trade outcomes, especially in volatile conditions like post-data drops.

4. Overnight Session Scalping:

   • You took a scalp trade off an untested M1 demand area from the prior day and saw quick success after confirming a close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the premarket high to low.
   • This demonstrates a successful application of Fibonacci retracement and quick reaction to price action, leading to a profitable 1-2R scalp.

Areas to Consider:

• Continue refining entry precision by considering different timeframes (M1 vs. M5) to optimize for better risk management.
• Marking all supply/demand liquidity zones more accurately could prevent future missed opportunities and clarify extremes.

 

(NOTES)

I woke up somehow at 8:32 on the dot, which was pretty interesting being that data dropped 2 minutes piror, and I noticed M1 displacement through my H6 bullish orderblock level of interest. In which all of the liquidity was sweeped through the the H6 Bullish Orderblock stoploss, with a reaction off of that level, missing the lower daily draw on liquidity by about a 1 minute candle. So In the future, I think it will be very beneficial to mark 100% of supply or demand liquidity so that I can get an idea of the extremes in where price can likely head. 

But I took the retest long from my level of interest after the displacement from the 8:30 data, with a stoploss at my inital stop area from the H6 bullish orderblock. Looking at this trade in hindsight, had I taken the trade on the M1 chart, I would have been stop ran at the low of day for price to immediately have ran in my direction, but If i entered on the 5 minute chart, I would have experienced virtually no drawdown for a very high risk to reward trade. So we will have to keep that in mind for the future.

I did also take a scalp trade in the overnight session, off of an untested m1 demand area from the prior day, it immediately started running, and I didnt take the inital entry, but once we had a 1 minute close above the 50% fib from the premarket high to low, I scalped a long trade for about 1-2R.

1D 1M VWAP Lowerband & MoAvg Confluence, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Long, LIS (Bullish), LIS M15 Demand, M1 Bullish Close Entry, M15 Bearish To Bullish Variation, M15 Bullish Orderblock, M15 Demand LIS, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband,

 

Key Confluences for Today's and Yesterday's Counter-Trend Trades:

1. Liquidity Sweep Confluence:

   • Both trades were executed following a draw on liquidity, which was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance, signaling potential reversals.

2. First Deviation Moving Average:

   • The 9:30 AM session showed a sharp move up into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up a short trade. However, this moving average has shown to be less reliable, often providing false signals, especially in the premarket, where it can trigger stopouts.

3. Premarket Considerations:

   • In the premarket, the first deviation moving average signaled a potential stopout, suggesting that the downside move might extend to the second deviation moving average, which aligns better with the trend.

4. Data-Driven Context:

   • The prior day's inactivity due to data release suggested a high probability setup for the upperband to lowerband trade. Today's setup echoed similar conditions with bearish orderblocks and liquidity sweeps.

5. Bearish Orderblocks & Liquidity Context:

   • Today's daily draw on liquidity was situated between multiple bearish orderblocks (H12, H6, H4). However, the initial losses could have been avoided by recognizing that these orderblocks had been "swept," weakening their reliability as resistance.

6. Imbalance & Entry Signals:

   • A significant imbalance above today's 1D 1M upperband, coupled with a full-body close below the upperband, provided a clear short entry signal.

7. Trustworthiness of Resistance Levels:

   • The loss in the first trade could have been avoided by identifying the swept H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, indicating that the resistance level might no longer be strong, especially in a counter-trend scenario.

8. Seller Presence After Liquidity Sweep:

   • The rejection after the buy-side liquidity was swept implied strong seller presence, reinforcing the short bias.

9. Precise Entry Timing:

   • The 1-minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no-drawdown entry points, highlighting the importance of precise timing in executing trades.

Intention for Tomorrow:

Given these confluences, your focus should be on:

• Trusting the Confluences: Prioritize entries where multiple confluences align, especially after a liquidity sweep in conjunction with strong imbalances or key moving averages.
• Identifying Swept Levels: Pay close attention to swept orderblocks and liquidity levels, recognizing that their strength may be diminished, particularly in counter-trend trades.
• Refining Entry Precision: Continue to focus on precise entry timing, using 1-minute closes below key levels as a signal to minimize drawdown and maximize the probability of success.

 

 

 

 

Confluences for today and yesterdays counter trend trade:

* Draw on Liquidity was swept in confluence with an upperband imbalance

* The first deviation moving average provided a 9:30 rip up, into the daily draw on liquidity, setting up the short side trade

* The first deviation moving average has shown false signals either in the premarket, displaying a stopout trade, which invalidates it. Leaving more downside room to the second deviation moving average. 

* We had data on the day prior, because no trade opportunity was presented, and the trade of the day setup was an upperband to lowerband trade. 

* Todays daily draw on liquidity was in between multiple bearish orderblocks. (H12/H6 & H4)

* There was a massive imbalance with the move above todays 1d 1m upperband, with a full body close below the upperband giving an entry signal

* We could have avoided the first loss by marking the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks as (swept), signaling that the resistance level might now have been as strong and trustworthy. Especially because it was counter trend. To play counter trend, which is already less probability, the least we can do is use un swept liquidity. 

* Buy side liquidity was swept and (rejected) implying that sellers are present.

* 1 minute closes below the swept daily draw on liquidity provided no drawdown entries.

 

 

 

Refined Summary of Today's Trading Session:

1. Morning Trade Reflection:

• Trade Execution: Took a long trade against the predominant trend, expecting a similar setup to yesterday's VWAP upperband to lowerband short on the 1D 1M chart. The trade failed.
• Reasoning: Entered off the 1st moving average and 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence with a 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry.
• Observation: Recognized the potential manipulation due to upcoming data releases at 10:30 AM and FOMC minutes at 2 PM. Considered that the overnight session might have weakened the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks, which were retested to the tick, leading to the failure of this trade.
• Lesson: Avoid boredom trading; the loss was minimal compared to recent gains. The primary desired entry was off the 2nd moving average, which wasn’t presented.

2. Mid-Morning Short Trade:

• Trade Execution: Entered a short trade after a sweep of Daily draw on liquidity, leveraging H12 and H2 bearish orderblocks, and 1D 1M VWAP upperband confluence on the M1 chart. It was a quick trade against the predominant trend.
• Observation: The lack of volume expansion on the 1D VWAP suggested a range day, prompting the decision to trade against the extremity.
• Lesson: Need to develop a ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, particularly when identifying liquidity sweeps during different sessions (e.g., 9:30 AM vs. overnight).

3. A+ Setup Execution:

• Trade Execution: Took an A+ setup long trade off the 2nd moving average after missing the exact entry due to a walk. The trade was confirmed by an M15 reaction off an M15 orderblock aligned with the ‘Line In The Sand.’
• Management: Partial profit taken at the 1D 1M VWAP upperband, with the plan to let the rest run through the day's high. The trade was based on expected momentum from potential short squeezes.
• Outcome: The trade was successfully managed, trailing out the runners with significant profit.

4. Afternoon Reflection:

• Observation: Noticed a strong confluence when the deviation moving averages align with the upper or lower bands, leading to high probability trades. However, current volume wasn’t expanding, signaling potential exhaustion in upward liquidity sweeps.
• Action Plan: Removed the 1st deviation moving average due to previous failures and decided to focus on developing a ruleset for utilizing moving averages in specific market contexts. Emphasis on defining counter-trend trade setups with clear confluences, as identified in today's trades.

Key Takeaways & Action Points:

1. Avoid Boredom Trading: Ensure that trades are only taken when high-confidence setups are present. Losses can be minimized by sticking to well-defined setups.
2. Data-Backed Trading: Wait for A+ setups that are aligned with the trend and backed by historical data. Be cautious when entering counter-trend trades without a solid plan.
3. Confluence of Indicators: Recognize the importance of multiple confluences (e.g., deviation moving averages, VWAP bands, orderblocks) in identifying high-probability trades.
4. Counter-Trend Ruleset Development: Create a detailed ruleset for taking counter-trend trades, including the conditions under which they are justified and how to manage them effectively.
5. Market Context Analysis: Continuously compare and analyze price action relationships between different sessions (e.g., overnight vs. 9:30 AM) to refine trading decisions.
6. Post-Trade Review: Consistently review and journal trades, focusing on why they succeeded or failed. Use these insights to adapt and improve trading strategies.

Next Steps:

• Develop a Counter-Trend Trading Ruleset: Define the criteria for taking counter-trend trades, focusing on confluences and specific signals that validate such trades.
• Refine Moving Average Usage: Establish rules for when and how to use each moving average in various market contexts.
• Continue Data Collection: Gather more data on the correlation between VWAP bands and moving averages to enhance the robustness of your setups.
• Commit to A+ Setups: Prioritize waiting for A+ setups that align with the trend, and avoid taking trades out of impatience or boredom.

 

 

 

 

10:21AM. Took a long trade knowingly against the predominant trend. Fully aware. Thought it would follow the same setup yesterday where the 9:30 session would provide a upperband to lowerband vwap short on the 1D 1M chart. But it failed. 

It appears currently that the trade was taken off of the 1st moving average and the 1D 1M VWAP middleband confluence. 1M bearish to bullish variation reaction entry. But data is yet to come out, we have it at 10:30 & FOMC minutes at 2PM. Its likely that my short stop could have been manipulated. 

The main entry I want is the one from 2 days ago which is a long off of the 2nd moving average. 

When the day is finished I will do a journaling session on why the first trade failed. Not only was the setup presented yesterday, but the uppband was also in confluence with the H6 and H4 bearish orderblocks. It could have been that they were not as strong because they were retested to the tick in the overnight session. And the trade of the day setup in the overnight was a red oval at the retest area, so that basically displayed that shorts were knocked out of postion at that retest, so the loss definitely could have been avoided. I think it a bit of boredom trading because I didnt take one yesterday. But the loss was very minimal compared to the profits Ive been gaining. Ill take one more trade on the day at my ultimate desired entry point. If its not presented, Ill pass up and do a journal session to try to adapt to this market context. 

11:10 AM, caufht a short trade after the sweep of a Daily draw on liquidity and from an H12 and H2 bearish orderblock and 1D 1M Upperband VWAP confluence short. I traded it on the M1 chart and it was a failry quick trade against the predominant trend. And the reason for this is becausew the volume isnt expanding on the 1D VWAP. Its signaling more of a range day, so I decided to play against the extremity. 

Im going to have to develop a ruleset that allows me to take trades against the predominant trend. One thing to note is that todays draw on liquidity was swept in the 9:30 session, and not in the overnight, so Im going to have to define the relationships between today and yesterdays price action. 

12:18PM I took my A+ setup here, I missed the exact entry because I went on a walk, so I just marketed Long, and as Im typing this we just got M15 reaction confirmation off of the M15 orderblock set from the Line In The Sand. The real entry was a 1 Minute close back above the 2nd moving average, after the percieved manipulation sweep and stophunt of longs on the session. I currently have a partial to be taken off at the 1D 1M VWAP Upperband around 19940. And I plan to let the rest run through todays HOD, as there is likely alot of fomo shorts from the earlier move, and if they didnt cover profit by now, I think they could potentially go underwater and get their stoplosses squeezed, creating more momentum and buy side liquidity above todays HOD. 

3:15PM. I just got trail stopped out of my runners. Another amazing trading day. I covered a majority at the 1D VWAP Upperband in this trade as well. Volume isnt currently expanding to the upside, so im not sure liquidity towards the upside will continue to be swept in this current trading session. 

But there is definitely a massive confluence correlation for a high probability trade when the deviation moving averages are in synch with the upper or lower bands. I dont have as much data on the band correlating with the upperband at the moment, compared to the lowerband, but so far, they are hitting well. 

I have bascially removed my 1st deviation moving average ever since I was stopped out the other day in the overnight on the H12 trend shift. I would like to develop a rule set this weekend on how and when each moving average comes into play, compared to specific market contexts, and when to take trades like I did today, against the predominant trend, and what signals I gave that resulted in a win. Because although I didnt have a counter trend trade plabooked yet, I felt there was alot of confluences today to take the counter trend trade. My job now is to just define it.

Had i not taken a counter trend trade and still waited for my A+ that is data backed and with the trend, it still would have resulted in a lowerband to upperband trade, for about 150-160 points. 

1D 1M VWAP Lowerband & MoAvg Confluence, 1D M1 VWAP, 20D 1H Month VWAP Upperband, 2nd Deviation MovAvg Long, Daily Bearish Orderblock, Daily Bearish Orderblock Target, Daily Draw On Liquidity (Upside), H12 LIS Bearish Trend, H12 LIS Bullish Variation, M1 Bearish to Bullish Variation, M1 Entry, Month VWAP, Pre Market Low to Pre Market High, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, Weekly Draw On Liquidity (Upside),

Refined Key Takeaways and Trading Rules from the Session:

 

Reflection Note - 8/19/2024 4:21 PM

Observation:
Today was an exceptional trading day with perfect execution, especially in nailing the trade of the day setup during the 9:30 session. However, a significant amount of profit was left on the table towards the upside.

Actionable Insight:
For future sessions, it may be beneficial to revisit and refine strategies for capturing more profit in similar scenarios. This could involve:

• Extended Profit Targets: Considering higher profit targets when market conditions suggest strong continuation, supported by volume and trend strength.
• Trailing Stops: Implementing a more dynamic trailing stop strategy to lock in gains while allowing positions to run further.
• Partial Profit Adjustments: Reassessing the timing and scale of partial profit-taking to maximize the upside potential without prematurely exiting strong moves.

 

 

Key Takeaways:

1. Trend and Variation Analysis:

   • A shift from a bullish trend to a bearish trend was observed, triggered by a stop-loss event in the overnight session.
   • Confirmation was obtained that a bullish variation holds more weight than a bearish trend, which influenced the day's trading decisions.

2. First Deviation Moving Average:

   • A loss occurred when trading based on the first deviation moving average against liquidity that had already been swept.
   • This emphasizes the need to avoid trades against liquidity that has already been acted upon.

3. Second Deviation Moving Average:

   • The successful trade was based on the second deviation moving average, which aligned with a 1D 1M lower band and created a strong bullish variation.

4. Market Conditions:

   • No significant market-moving data was available during the session, which required a focus on technical setups rather than fundamental events.

5. Entry and Exit Strategy:

   • The buy stop order was executed at the moment of a bullish variation creation, with zero drawdown experienced and a clear exit strategy based on potential reversal signals.

6. Volume and Liquidity:

   • The market showed no signs of slowing down, with volume continuing to expand, indicating a strong bullish momentum.

Trading Rules:

1. First Deviation Moving Average:

   • Rule: Do not trade the first deviation moving average against liquidity that has already been swept. Only trade it into liquidity that has not yet been swept.
   • Adjustment: This rule may be revised if future data suggests different variables that can influence the probability of success.

2. Extremity Point Trading:

   • Rule: In the absence of clear market data, focus on trading from extremity points rather than following trend moves from the open.

3. Second Deviation Moving Average:

   • Rule: Prioritize trades using the second deviation moving average when it aligns with other technical confluences, such as lower bands and the creation of bullish variations.

4. Data-Driven Decisions:

   • Rule: Continue to rely on data and execute trades based on the setups that present themselves, adjusting strategies as more data becomes available.

5. Partial Profit-Taking:

   • Rule: Take partial profits after significant moves, especially when multiple order blocks suggest a potential reversal, while allowing a portion of the position to run if the market continues to show strength.

This refined summary and the set of trading rules should help guide future sessions and improve decision-making based on the lessons learned today.

 

 

 

 

It was a great trading day. It started somewhat yesterday in the overnight session for me as I took a long entry off of the first deviation moving average, and was stopped out for a loss at the open of the next H12 candle, that broke the trend from a bullish to bearish trend shift. Thats the exact area I took a stoploss, and it was for a very minimal loss, I think around 8-10 points. The entry was around midnight, and the stoploss was a half hour later. From that point I just went to sleep instead of continuing to trade. From the time the market opened in the overnight session, it trended staight up to what I had marked as the Week and Daily confluence draw on liquidity. And above that draw, I had the prior week draw on liquidty, which is the level I believed we were targeting last week, and it actually happened to be my main target on todays trading session, since it lined up in confluence with the 20D 1H Month VWAP Upperband

I marked the red and green ovals, because from the overnight session, shorts had the trade of the session setup from the short taken from the Weekly and Daily draw on liquidity, and because the price action held the prior H1 ODB and seemed to be shorts take profit, plus the H12 Bullish Variation Line In The Sand was still intact, but at this moment I had no data on whether a bullish h12 variation or a bearish h12 downtrend held more weight, but today I now have confirmation and data to support that a variation holds more weight than a trend, which is what I figured prior to taking my long trade today. 

One thing I did wrong and I guess I will have to avoid again in the future, is that I took a trade based off of the first deviation moving average, which seemed like a good trade at the time because the h12 trend was still bullish and intact at that point, from the low of my entry as a stoploss, at 1 in the morning at the turn of the next 12 hour candle, it stopped me out and shifted into a bearish trend. 

Now im not exactly sure what caused the first deviation moving average long stopout, but my best guess is that It would have been a higher probability trade if I took that long into the weekly and daily draw on liquidity/first take profit rather than taking the long against liquidity that was already swept.

Now the tricky part is that I still had higher draw on liquidity targets above, so whos to say that it couldnt have been the correct long entry?

Overall I will need to gather more data on this in the future on different variables that can affect which moving average may provide a higher probability long entry, but for now I will make my best guess a hard trading rule for the future. And that is, dont trade the first deviation moving average against liquidity that has been swept, and to only trade it into liquidity that has not yet been swept. 

If any data changes this rule in the future we will re adjust. 

So for the 9:30 session, the market opened, and I noticed also that there wasnt any hard market data on the day. There was minor 10AM data, but again, nothing that was market moving. So from this point, obviously we had a contradiction between the H12 bearish trend and the H12 bullish variation, so I knew that I need to take a trade from an extremity point rather that a trend move from the open type scenario. Now at this moment, obviously the trend was still up, because the moving averages have not yet reversed, so I knew that the only entry left for me was the second deviation moving average, so i decided to disregard and remove the study of the first deviation moving average because of the stopout I took in the overnight session. So around 10:21AM, we got a rapid reaction to the downside, which created an extremity/imbalance in price action, and the 1D 1M lowerband was in confluence with the 2nd deviation moving average. From this point, the moving average held, with no closure below, wicked on the 1 minute chart, and I traded it with a buy stop order at the exact moment the bearish to bullish variation was created. From the moment I entered, I experienced zero drawdown, with a fair value gap created and displacement from my entry, which is marked with a hard green box from my entry, and a hard stop at the low created from the imbalance. I took off around 85% after multiple orderblocks showed signs of potential reversal, and because we had a full lowerband to upperband move, so I wanted to take partials. As i sit here and journal this, the market is continuing to rip far beyond my profit targets, now heading into the next daily bearish orderblock and beyond. As it should, because volume is still expanding to the upside on the 20D 1H Month VWAP, and because there is a bunch of un swept liquidity of sell orders. This market doesnt seem to be displaying any signs of slowing down anytime soon. So I will just do what ive been doing, and that simply trading exactly what I see infront of me, relying on the data, and executing on the setups infront of me when I see them. 

1PM Sell SIde, 9:30 Open Downside Drive, H12 Bullish Trend Failure, H12 Line In The Sand, H12 Range, H6 Bullish Order Block, Higher DOL, Lower DOL, PML Short, Trend Below Lowerband, V Shaped Recovery, vwap bounce, VWAP Lowerband To Upperband, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 8:17 PM
• Status: Closed
• Asset: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 1PM Sell Side
  • 9:30 Open Downside Drive
  • H12 Bullish Trend Failure
  • H12 Line In The Sand
  • H12 Range
  • H6 Bullish Order Block
  • Higher DOL
  • Lower DOL
  • PML Short
  • Trend Below Lowerband
  • V Shaped Recovery
  • VWAP Bounce
  • VWAP Lowerband To Upperband
  • VWAP Upperband Short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes:

• 9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
• 11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
• 3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
• General Observations:
  • Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
  • Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
  • Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.

Key Takeaways:

• Right:

  • Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
  • Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.

• Wrong:

  • Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
  • Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.

Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.

Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.

11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick. 

3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.

Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future. 

Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops.