1D VWAP UpperBand to Lowerband, 2D 5M VWAP (Month), H12 Bullish Trend, LIS Hold, M2 Entry Loss, M5 Entry Win, VWAP (MONTH), VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Analysis for July 29, 2024

Trade Details

• Published: July 29, 2024, 7:41 p.m.
• Status: CLOSED
• Portfolio(s): APEX PA ACCOUNT 50K
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 29, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • 1D VWAP UpperBand to Lowerband
  • 2D 5M VWAP (Month)
  • H12 Bullish Trend
  • LIS Hold
  • M2 Entry Loss
  • M5 Entry Win
  • VWAP Upperband short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes

10:08 AM:

• Initial Trades:
  • Took two small losses off the opening.
  • M2 chart failed on the first sell signal.
  • First trade: A bit of a chase after closing below 19260 (prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband). Should have considered the 1D Lowerband on the session and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP.
  • No red bar closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart, hence no full confirmation of a continuation selloff.
  • Second trade: 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart; correct theory but did not work out.
  • Decision: Focus on the M5 timeframe that worked today.

11:06 AM:

• Current Trade:
  • Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP.
  • Unsure about holding duration but targeting 19030 (an aggressive target).
  • Following the rule of using a lower timeframe entry, then moving to the next higher timeframe if needed.
  • M5 chart was the successful timeframe for the day.

2:58 PM:

• End of Day Analysis:
  • Mentally taxing day, watched position return to breakeven and waited for hours for a drop.
  • Should have covered at the first test of the 2D Month VWAP upperband.
  • Trading with 1 contract made it harder to respect covers.
  • Need to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades with 1 contract.
  • Could have avoided the loss and been up $200 by waiting for the M5 chart instead of M2.
  • Sign trade was going against me: reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift and squeeze of the H12 LIS at 19168.
  • Battle between shorts holding the HOD and longs holding the LOD, with M5 entries from both HOD and LOD holding.

Things Done Right

1. Adaptability: Adjusted to M5 chart after M2 chart trades failed.
2. Stoploss Management: Adhered to stoploss rules and moved up the timeframe for a more reliable signal.
3. Trade Management: Held position with a clear understanding of the trade's setup and signals.
4. Recognition of Patterns: Identified the importance of different VWAP bands and levels in trade decisions.

Things Done Wrong

1. Target Setting: Had an overly aggressive target for the day; should have considered closer profit-taking points.
2. Trade Size Management: Took on too much size with one contract, leading to difficulty in managing the trade.
3. Initial Trade Chasing: First trade was a bit of a chase and not fully confirmed by signals.
4. Timeframe Selection: Initial reliance on M2 chart led to losses; should have waited for M5 signals.

What to Continue Doing

1. Using Higher Timeframes: Continue using higher timeframes for confirmation when lower timeframe signals fail.
2. Adhering to Stoploss Rules: Keep following strict stoploss rules to manage risk.
3. Analyzing Signals: Maintain thorough analysis of entry and exit signals across different timeframes.
4. Journal Keeping: Continue detailed journaling to track performance and learn from each trade.

What to Avoid

1. Overly Aggressive Targets: Avoid setting targets that are too far away; consider more achievable profit-taking points.
2. Large Position Sizes: Avoid taking large positions that are difficult to manage, especially when only trading with one contract.
3. Trade Chasing: Avoid chasing trades without full confirmation of signals.
4. Ignoring Confirmations: Avoid ignoring important confirmations on higher timeframes that contradict lower timeframe signals.

By focusing on these aspects, you can improve your consistency and profitability while avoiding common pitfalls.

 

 

 

 

4o

 

 

 

 

10:08AM: Took 2 papercuts off the opening, M2 chart failed on the first sell signal, im am now taking a M5 sell signal. The first trade I took, was kind of a chase, because we closed below a key level I had at 19260, which was the prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband. I thought because we closed below that level, we would see a continuation selloff. But I should have payed more attention to the 1D Lowerband on the session, and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP. There was no red bar that closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart. So there was no full confirmation of a continuation selloff. The second trade I took, was a 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart, which was the correct theory, just didnt work out. This is why I came to the conclution that tomorrow I will focus on the timeframe that worked today, which was M5

11:06AM: I am currently up on the trade. Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP. Im not exactly sure yet on how long I should be holding this, but sell side liquidity grabs seem to be in play. My ultimate target on the day I guess is 19030. But that is an extremely aggressive target.

It worked very well for me to follow the rule of a stoploss with a lower timeframe entry, when unwilling to give up the same trade idea, just gradually move to the next timeframe higher. It lowers trade frequency, expands the range/scope of the move, and requires more confirmation. But M5 chart was most certainly the winner for the day.

2:58PM: im officially done trading OTD. Very Very mentally taxing first trading day. Watched my entire position come back to breakeven, and wait literally hours for the same drop. Should have covered from the first test of the 2D Month VWAP from the upperband, being I was only trading with 1 contract. This is the difficult part of only utilizing 1 contract. I dont respect covers as much. Its must easier for me to exit a full position when I have at least 2 contracts. 

The main thing I did wrong today was being too far out on my target. The fact that I was playing the Month 2D VWAP, shouldve required me to take profit at the first VWAP test. Instead of going for the prior day band low at 19031.97 which was a 1D M1 Lower Band Target.

With that being said, I think trading 1 contract is going to require me to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades, Its going to be very difficult to catch full top to bottom band moves with only 1 contract. 

Also, I could have avoided todays loss, and been up around 200 OTD only trading 1 micro contract, if I just waited for the turn of the M5 chart instead od M2. I will go into tomorrows trading session with that in mind.

Another sign that the trade was going to go against me was the reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift. It was holding below, but then squeezed the H12 LIS at 19168. 

It was a battle between shorts holding the HOD, and longs holding the LOD. And both M5 entries that came from the HOD and LOD have held this far (3:31PM)

Bullish Pre Market, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Prior Day High & Low DOL, VWAP (MONTH),

Weekly Trading Summary (July 22, 2024)

Trade Details:

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Asset: /MNQ - Futures
• Trade Type: Short
• Pattern: Bullish Pre Market, Prior Day Close/Pre Market Open Gap, Prior Day High & Low Draw on Liquidity (DOL), Monthly VWAP

Trading Notes:

1. Pre-Market Analysis (8:38 AM)

   • Observed an overnight gap above the prior month's low, indicating potential continuation higher due to in-the-money buy orders from Friday.
   • Daily VWAP trending through its upper band.
   • Monthly VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M chart showed alignment with prior day's high and low liquidity draws.
   • Bias: Expecting a liquidity sweep above the prior day's high followed by a failure.
   • No major economic news anticipated; expected selling into the open.

2. First Trade (9:45 AM)

   • Short trade on the 2-minute chart, stopped out.
   • Maintained the same thesis; looked for re-entry on the 5-minute chart.

3. Second Trade (M5 Re-Entry)

   • Re-entered on the M5 chart based on Monthly VWAP Trend and Variation shift to the downside.
   • Target: Weekly DOL after sweeping prior day's high DOL.
   • Thesis: Expected overnight longs to cover positions into the open, creating sell-side pressure. Anticipated multiple traps (shorts and longs) to be sprung for a downside move.
   • This setup was a playbook trade where a prior day close to pre-market open gap gets absorbed and traded against.

4. Mid-Trade Update (11:30 AM)

   • Trade entered drawdown but moved in the expected direction.
   • Covered 1 of the 2 contracts, holding the 2nd for the full Monthly VWAP upper band to lower band move.

5. End of Day (2:41 PM)

   • The trade ended negatively.
   • Targeting the DOL lower on the week and expecting the playbook trade to play out did not work as planned.
   • Recognized the need to revisit this trade signal for future improvements.

Things Done Right:

• Identified and analyzed key support and resistance levels using VWAP and DOL.
• Maintained a consistent thesis and adapted to re-enter on a higher timeframe (M5) after being stopped out on a lower timeframe (M2).
• Managed risk by covering 1 of the 2 contracts during the trade.

Things Done Wrong:

• Initial trade on the 2-minute chart led to an early stop-out.
• Targeted a specific weekly DOL that did not play out as anticipated.
• The final trade resulted in a loss, indicating a need to reassess the trade signal and entry criteria.

New Key Rules Learned:

• Reassess Entry Criteria: Review and potentially adjust entry criteria when initial trades are stopped out to avoid repeated drawdowns.
• Signal Validation: Further validate trade signals to improve the accuracy of entries, especially for playbook trades.
• Risk Management: Continue refining risk management strategies, including partial covers and setting realistic targets.

By analyzing these notes, you can refine your strategy and rules, focusing on improving your trade entries, managing risk more effectively, and validating your trade signals for better future performance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its currently 8:38 AM as im beginning todays journaling session. And right off of the bat, there is an overnight gap above the prior month low. Which tells me that the buy orders hitting the tape on friday, could very well be in the money for todays trading session for a continuation higher. And since the 1D VWAP is trending through its upperband. I decided to take the next deivation, which actually happened to be the Month VWAP tracking on the 1D 5M. There is also a draw on liquidity for both the high and the low of the prior day. And it aligns pretty well with the Month VWAP bands. So what Im thinking is going to happen, is that there will be a liquidity sweep above the prior day high, and we will see a failure, after the liquidity is swept. That is my current bias. There is no major economic news today either, and I would figure that there should be some selling into the open. 

 

9:45, was just stopped out of an opening short trade on the 2 minute chart, still have the same thesis, will re enter if presented on the M5 chart

I re entered on the M5 Month VWAP Trend And Variation shift to the downside. Targeting the weekly dol after the prior day high dol was swept. I am currently risking another squeeze to grab more buy stops on what I believe is a manipulation trade up. My thesis is that the overnight longs will be covering their positions into the open session here, creating sellside pressure, and that the manipulation up, will have trapped early opening shorts, and also create a false breakout to the upside for longs, trapping them on the way back down. So, theres multiple traps involved in this setup. And it follows our playbook trade, backed by data, where a prior day close to pre market open gap gets absorbed and traded against. So, we will see what happens. Ive made more money to the downside as well than my long trades. If it doesnt work, it is what it is.

11:30, The trade put me into some drawdown, but It is currently in my direction, and I covered 1 of the 2 contracts. Going to attempt to hold the 2nd one for the full Month VWAP Upperband to Lowerband move.

 

2:41PM Red fucking day. What else is new...

I was targeting the DOL lower on the week, and for the playbook trade to play out, and it didnt. Will have to revisit this incorrect trade signal in the future. 

VWAP (MONTH), VWAP (MONTH) Upperband To Lowerband, vwap bounce, VWAP Long, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Trade Summary for July 23, 2024

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Trade Details:

• Entry Time: 12:01 AM
• Status: Closed
• Portfolio: APEX 50K EVAL/Lance B System
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: /MNQN24
• Type: Short
• Patterns:
  • VWAP (MONTH)
  • VWAP (MONTH) Upperband To Lowerband
  • VWAP Bounce
  • VWAP Long
  • VWAP Upperband Short
  • VWAP Upperband To Lowerband

Notes:

• 10:05 AM:

  • Initiated a short position at the break of the prior day’s low (PML) during the premarket session.
  • Noticed a gap between the prior day's close and the premarket open, indicating a potential shift in direction.
  • Recognized displacement below the key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, confirming a bearish bias.
  • After a failed long trade attempt off the VWAP band, confirmed the shift in direction and shorted the PML as it was the only clear stop-loss placement.

• Trade Execution:

  • The trade was immediately profitable, indicating strong downside pressure with no drawdown from the entry point.
  • Decided to let the trade run without a specific downside target, anticipating a trend day based on the weekly chart moves and the strong sell-side pressure.

• Market Behavior:

  • Observed consistent lower lows with no retests of the entry price, reinforcing the strength of the entry.
  • The VWAP and Lowerband continued to downtrend, acting as a continuation sell signal with massive downside volume.

• Outcome:

  • Took a walk and decided to lock in profits upon return, closing the trade with over $500 in profit, pushing the account balance over $1,000.

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Additional Notes:

• End-of-Day Reflection:

  • Achieved the biggest profit day on the account, totaling over $1,200.
  • Increased trading frequency based on the notes suggesting the VWAP trade as an "easy money trade."
  • Faced a critical moment with a VWAP dip buy that came close to blowing the account but was saved by the monthly VWAP support.
  • Acknowledged the risk of trading too heavily, with a full position size of 16+ contracts, and the importance of not over-leveraging with a trailing drawdown.

• Key Takeaways:

  • Successful in capitalizing on the VWAP patterns and adhering to the identified signals.
  • Realized the importance of managing position size and avoiding excessive risk.
  • Future trades will be limited to entering 1 micro at a time and building positions incrementally to manage risk effectively.

Key Lessons:

• Right:

  • Accurately identified the VWAP lower band as a support level, leading to a well-timed short entry.
  • Trusted the VWAP signals and followed the identified patterns, resulting in significant profits.

• Wrong:

  • Took on excessive risk by trading too heavily with 16+ contracts, nearly risking the account.
  • Averaging down to improve price, although it worked out this time, it is not a sustainable strategy given the trailing drawdown.

Overall Summary: This trade highlighted the effectiveness of using VWAP patterns and signals to identify high-probability trades. While the execution led to significant profits, it also underscored the importance of risk management and the dangers of over-leveraging. The adjustment to trading frequency and position sizing will be crucial for sustaining future success and protecting the account from significant drawdowns.

 

 

 

 

Today I made a great deal of money, my biggest day on this account since I began, in total, I made over $1200 dollars. and I did it in part because I did tweak my 2 trade rule today, and I actually spent most of the day involved in a trade, and its because I realize that I need to pick up my trading frequency on the trade that has been suggested from my notes, and that is my VWAP trade. It seems to currently be my 'easy money trade'. And I just decided to keep taking the signals and trusting the outcome. 

I will same, I came waaay to close to blowing the account today, and that was with a VWAP dip buy, that was saved by the Month VWAP. It wound up sweeping the 9:30 Open Low, taking the long stops from the morning session, and then ripping in my direction. It really was a make or break moment for this account, and I nearly lost it. I was waaay to heavy in size, at full position was around 16 plus contracts. I can never do that again. I was averaging down to improve my price, and although it went in my direction, thats besides the point. You simply cant trade that size with trailing drawdown ever. 

So therefor, If I want to increase my trading frequency, I can only enter 1 Micro at a time, and build a position with 1 Micro at a time. With this particular trade, I was slapping the trade with 2 micros at a time. And its too heavy.

The only way I can add is with A side setups, and confirmations through multiple timeframes.