5D 5M Month VWAP , M5 Entry Win, VWAP Short,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Session

1. Adaptation to System:

   • Focused on taking positions based on market displacement and direction from the overnight session.
   • Anticipated a shift at the Month VWAP, which influenced the decision to short.

2. Trade Execution:

   • Shorted against the prevailing H6 and H12 trends, aligning with the strategy of trading based on displacement from key levels.
   • The trade did not hit the stop loss (set at the High of Day) and trended below the 9 & 21 EMAs on the 5-minute chart.

3. Drawdown Observations:

   • Experienced drawdown due to a variation shift entry on the 5-minute chart.
   • Despite a winning trade, drawdown occurred, highlighting the need for improved entry strategies.

Key Intention for Tomorrow's Trading Day

1. Backtesting Displacement Areas:

   • Conduct backtesting on displacement areas to identify common themes that lead to successful trades.
   • Focus on how displacement from key levels correlates with winning trades.

2. Refine Entry Strategies:

   • Analyze and fine-tune entry strategies to minimize drawdown.
   • Investigate ways to enhance accuracy in displacement entry points and reduce adverse effects from variation shifts.

3. Data Analysis:

   • Gather and analyze data on how displacement from key levels impacts trade outcomes.
   • Use this analysis to refine strategies and improve overall trading performance.

By focusing on these areas, you can work towards optimizing your trading approach and potentially increase the success rate of your trades.

 

 

 

 

I just followed the adaptation to the system. Which is taking positions based off of displacement and where the market is heading, from the overnight session, I figured that the move would shift at the Month VWAP, and present an opportunity for sellers to get involved. At the moment I shorted, it was against the prevailing H6 and H12 trend, but it appears that displacement from these key levels is a better appraoch thus far, unless the data changes. I took the trade, it never hit stop which was HOD, and it steadily trended below the 9 & 21 EMAS on the 5 minute chart.

My key intention next is to do some backtesting on all of the displacement areas, and try to gather data on common themes that lead to winning trades. Although today was a winning trade, I did experience some drawdown from the variation shift entry on the 5 minute chart, and if I can find ways to fine tune these entries, and avoid as much drawdown as possible, I think that would be a great next step. Finding common entries based on displacement areas off of key levels.

1D M1 VWAP, 1D M2 VWAP, H12 Bearish LIS, H6 Bearish Trend, Lower DOL, M1 Entry, M2 Entry Loss, Mo Bearish Trend Shift, VWAP Short,

Key Takeaways from Today's Trade of the Day Setup

1. Trend and LIS Analysis:

   • Entered a long trade during a setup that should have been taken in the opposite direction.
   • Misalignment due to the H6 trend not flipping, which is crucial for counter-trend trades into the H12 LIS.
   • The trade would not have been executed if the H6 trend flip was awaited, avoiding the incorrect long entry.

2. Timeframe and Execution:

   • The trade of the day setup played out on the 1D 1M VWAP middle band, suitable for 1-minute and 2-minute chart execution.
   • Chose the 5D 5M WEEK VWAP for the trade based on a prior successful trade at the upper band extremity.
   • Misjudged the lower band extremity as a high possibility for a swing low hold and bounce.

3. Volatility and Price Action:

   • Experienced tricky price action with significant volatility.
   • The draw on liquidity was lower following the monthly trend shift, which should have been factored into the analysis.

Adjustments and Rule Implementations

1. Counter-Trend Trade Rule:

   • New Trading Rule: To execute a counter-trend move into the H12 LIS, the H6 trend must be counter-trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.
   • This rule ensures alignment and avoids premature counter-trend entries.

2. Trend Confirmation:

   • Always wait for trend confirmation on the H6 chart before executing trades against the prevailing H12 trend.
   • This confirmation helps in avoiding trades that go against the overall market direction.

3. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Execute trades on appropriate timeframes that align with the identified setup (e.g., 1D 1M VWAP middle band for 1-minute and 2-minute charts).
   • Avoid using custom or less relevant timeframes that could lead to misalignment and increased risk.

4. Price Action and Volatility Consideration:

   • Factor in recent trend shifts and the potential impact on price action and liquidity draws.
   • Stay cautious of tricky price action and avoid making trades based on assumptions without confirmation.

Summary of Adjustments and New Rules

1. New Trading Rule:

   • For counter-trend trades into the H12 LIS, the H6 trend must be counter-trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.

2. Trend Confirmation:

   • Wait for H6 trend confirmation before taking trades against the prevailing H12 trend.

3. Timeframe Consistency:

   • Use the appropriate timeframes for trade execution based on the identified setup.
   • Avoid relying on custom or less relevant timeframes.

4. Price Action Awareness:

   • Be aware of recent trend shifts and their impact on liquidity and price action.
   • Exercise caution in volatile markets and avoid trades based on unconfirmed assumptions.

By implementing these adjustments and rules, you can improve your trading accuracy, avoid misaligned trades, and enhance your overall trading performance.

 

 

 

 

Today we took a long at the exact moment this 'Trade Of The Day' Setup played out. So i got in the wrong direction at the exact moment I should of went the other way.

The reasons I think I got this trade wrong, was mainly because, the H6 trend never flipped, which seems to me now, to be a major factor with my H12 LIS thesis.

***NEW TRADING RULE***

In order to play a counter trend move into the H12 LIS, going against the prevailing directional bias as we state in our 'Line In The Sand', the H6 trend must be counter trend to the H12 directional bias/trend.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I believe if I had waited for the H6 trend to flip, it would have kept me out of the long side trade, because the long order would have never got filled, and I could have located the counter direction move and looked for levels and opportunites according to it. 

The trade panned out on the 1D 1M VWAP middleband. And the trade could have been executed on both a 1 minute & 2 minute chart.

I executed the trade on a 5D 5M WEEK VWAP, because the prior day, I had an amazing trade that came from the upperband extremity, and today we were trading the lowerband extremity, and I thought there was a high possibility that the swing low would hold, and that we would bounce. It was very tricky price action. 

And the draw on liquidity was lower after the monthly trend shifted. 

8:30 DATA, 9:30 Open Retest Short, All Bullish SIgnal, All Time Highs, CPI, H1 Bullish Structure, H1 Bullish Trend, H12 Bullish Structure, H12 Bullish Trend, H2 Bullish Structure, H2 Bullish Trend, H4 Bullish Structure, H4 Bullish Trend, H6 Bullish Structure, H6 Bullish Trend, M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation, M1 Trail Stop, Playbook , Pre Market Open Short, Trade Of The Day , VWAP Short, VWAP Upperband short, VWAP Upperband To Lowerband,

Analysis of July 11, 2024

Key Points:

• Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
• Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
• Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
• Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.

Recommendations and Learnings

1. Discipline and Routine:

   • Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
   • Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.

2. Missed Opportunities:

   • While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
   • Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.

3. Trade of the Day Analysis:

   • Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
   • Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.

4. Risk Management:

   • Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
   • Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.

Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy

Playbook Development

1. Setup Identification:

   • Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
   • Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.

2. Execution Guidelines:

   • Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
   • Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.

3. Review and Adapt:

   • Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
   • Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.

Checklist for Future Trades

1. Preparation:

   • Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
   • Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.

2. Execution:

   • Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
   • Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.

3. Reflection:

   • Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
   • Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.

By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.

I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.

Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.

One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.