First trade: A bit of a chase after closing below 19260 (prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband). Should have considered the 1D Lowerband on the session and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP.
No red bar closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart, hence no full confirmation of a continuation selloff.
Second trade: 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart; correct theory but did not work out.
Decision: Focus on the M5 timeframe that worked today.
11:06 AM:
Current Trade:
Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP.
Unsure about holding duration but targeting 19030 (an aggressive target).
Following the rule of using a lower timeframe entry, then moving to the next higher timeframe if needed.
M5 chart was the successful timeframe for the day.
2:58 PM:
End of Day Analysis:
Mentally taxing day, watched position return to breakeven and waited for hours for a drop.
Should have covered at the first test of the 2D Month VWAP upperband.
Trading with 1 contract made it harder to respect covers.
Need to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades with 1 contract.
Could have avoided the loss and been up $200 by waiting for the M5 chart instead of M2.
Sign trade was going against me: reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift and squeeze of the H12 LIS at 19168.
Battle between shorts holding the HOD and longs holding the LOD, with M5 entries from both HOD and LOD holding.
Things Done Right
Adaptability: Adjusted to M5 chart after M2 chart trades failed.
Stoploss Management: Adhered to stoploss rules and moved up the timeframe for a more reliable signal.
Trade Management: Held position with a clear understanding of the trade's setup and signals.
Recognition of Patterns: Identified the importance of different VWAP bands and levels in trade decisions.
Things Done Wrong
Target Setting: Had an overly aggressive target for the day; should have considered closer profit-taking points.
Trade Size Management: Took on too much size with one contract, leading to difficulty in managing the trade.
Initial Trade Chasing: First trade was a bit of a chase and not fully confirmed by signals.
Timeframe Selection: Initial reliance on M2 chart led to losses; should have waited for M5 signals.
What to Continue Doing
Using Higher Timeframes: Continue using higher timeframes for confirmation when lower timeframe signals fail.
Adhering to Stoploss Rules: Keep following strict stoploss rules to manage risk.
Analyzing Signals: Maintain thorough analysis of entry and exit signals across different timeframes.
Journal Keeping: Continue detailed journaling to track performance and learn from each trade.
What to Avoid
Overly Aggressive Targets: Avoid setting targets that are too far away; consider more achievable profit-taking points.
Large Position Sizes: Avoid taking large positions that are difficult to manage, especially when only trading with one contract.
Trade Chasing: Avoid chasing trades without full confirmation of signals.
Ignoring Confirmations: Avoid ignoring important confirmations on higher timeframes that contradict lower timeframe signals.
By focusing on these aspects, you can improve your consistency and profitability while avoiding common pitfalls.
4o
10:08AM: Took 2 papercuts off the opening, M2 chart failed on the first sell signal, im am now taking a M5 sell signal. The first trade I took, was kind of a chase, because we closed below a key level I had at 19260, which was the prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband. I thought because we closed below that level, we would see a continuation selloff. But I should have payed more attention to the 1D Lowerband on the session, and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP. There was no red bar that closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart. So there was no full confirmation of a continuation selloff. The second trade I took, was a 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart, which was the correct theory, just didnt work out. This is why I came to the conclution that tomorrow I will focus on the timeframe that worked today, which was M5
11:06AM: I am currently up on the trade. Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP. Im not exactly sure yet on how long I should be holding this, but sell side liquidity grabs seem to be in play. My ultimate target on the day I guess is 19030. But that is an extremely aggressive target.
It worked very well for me to follow the rule of a stoploss with a lower timeframe entry, when unwilling to give up the same trade idea, just gradually move to the next timeframe higher. It lowers trade frequency, expands the range/scope of the move, and requires more confirmation. But M5 chart was most certainly the winner for the day.
2:58PM: im officially done trading OTD. Very Very mentally taxing first trading day. Watched my entire position come back to breakeven, and wait literally hours for the same drop. Should have covered from the first test of the 2D Month VWAP from the upperband, being I was only trading with 1 contract. This is the difficult part of only utilizing 1 contract. I dont respect covers as much. Its must easier for me to exit a full position when I have at least 2 contracts.
The main thing I did wrong today was being too far out on my target. The fact that I was playing the Month 2D VWAP, shouldve required me to take profit at the first VWAP test. Instead of going for the prior day band low at 19031.97 which was a 1D M1 Lower Band Target.
With that being said, I think trading 1 contract is going to require me to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades, Its going to be very difficult to catch full top to bottom band moves with only 1 contract.
Also, I could have avoided todays loss, and been up around 200 OTD only trading 1 micro contract, if I just waited for the turn of the M5 chart instead od M2. I will go into tomorrows trading session with that in mind.
Another sign that the trade was going to go against me was the reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift. It was holding below, but then squeezed the H12 LIS at 19168.
It was a battle between shorts holding the HOD, and longs holding the LOD. And both M5 entries that came from the HOD and LOD have held this far (3:31PM)
Market Expectation: Response to economic data releases (10 AM, 8:30 AM) and market reaction to consumer sentiment and personal income/outlays data.
Trade Plan: Short at the VWAP Upperband with expectation of continuation downward post-data releases.
10:06 AM:
Two losses on trap longs. VWAP action was unproductive.
10:20 AM:
Contemplated M15 entry but decided against it due to poor R/R.
Preference for extremity trades at VWAP bands.
10:49 AM:
Shorted at the area signaled long by the M15 chart.
Marketed short, breakeven OTD.
11:40 AM:
Boring session, stuck in a tight range.
Down $56, aiming to get green OTD.
12:43 PM:
Frustrated by false signals and missed opportunities.
Could have been profitable if long at LOD liquidity sweep.
1:38 PM:
Passed evaluation despite multiple chop outs OTD.
Noted necessity for deep journaling to avoid future stop outs.
Recognized over-risking, but trading with weekly profits.
Key Points:
Right:
Accurate identification of bearish signals and alignment with economic data.
Entry aligned with multiple timeframe confirmation (H12, M15, M30).
Recognized importance of journaling and addressing chop outs.
Wrong:
Multiple stop outs and false signals due to choppy VWAP action.
Over-risking despite weekly profits.
Missed key liquidity sweep long opportunity.
New Rules Learned:
Implement a rule for avoiding chop outs.
Prioritize order blocks alignment:
Shorts: Higher timeframe order blocks should be above lower timeframe order blocks.
Longs: Higher timeframe order blocks should be below lower timeframe order blocks.
Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded.
Overall Summary
Strengths:
Strong market analysis and ability to identify traps.
Effective use of playbook trade principles.
Recognized need for risk management and journaling.
Weaknesses:
Struggled with choppy price action and false signals.
Over-risking and missing key opportunities.
Need for better confirmation signals to avoid multiple stop outs.
New Key Rules Learned:
Reassess timing and confirmation signals before re-entering trades.
Incorporate additional data points to strengthen the thesis.
Implement order block alignment rules for better trade confirmation.
Limit trading to 1 micro contract for the first 10 days of being funded to manage risk.
Overall Performance:
The week involved a mix of strong analysis and execution issues due to choppy market conditions.
Important lessons on trade confirmation, risk management, and order block alignment learned for future improvement.
9:29AM. Looking for longs off open atm, would write more detailed but I have 30 seconds.
10:06AM. Ive taken 2 loses on trap longs. Garbage action at the VWAP.
10:20AM. This is seriously awful price action. I am currently following a rule of going to the next timeframe over if my entry fails. So far I have been stopped out of M2 & M5. I am contemplating M15, but I honestly dont think I want to take the trade. I would prefer an extremity at the VWAP bands at this point. Im thinking to trust a VWAP trade for the 3rd time would be a mistake, also because the R/R would put me at negative R Multiple from the 15M chart.
10:49AM. I took a short at the area where the M15 chart signaled long. I wasnt comfortable taking the trade after that type of trade stopped me out 2 times prior. Also, because of the negative R Multiple, I just marketed short and it got me bascially at breakeven OTD.
11:40AM. Pretty boring trading session, stuck in a tight range, chopping the VWAP with no extremities trade opportunities. Down around $56 on the session. Looking to just get green OTD so I can walk.
12:43 What a stupid fucking trading session. Shit is so fucking annoying. Just constantly giving me flase signals over and over again. If I just took the fucking long trade at the sweep of liquidity lower at LOD, id be up on fucking session and could have walked already.
1:38PM Passed my evaluation, multiple chop outs OTD, and we will have to do some deep journaling this week to figure out how to avoid that many stop outs in the future. But we put our money where our mouth was. Took on a bit too much risk to be honest. But we were playing with some profits on the week.
It doesnt matter how much profit we made OTW in theory, because we are against trailing drawdown.
Trading the M30 trend shift would have resulted in the least amount of drawdown upon entry for the trading session.
I also could have avoided squeeze loses but waiting for the break below the upperband, in which this case, we were trending above from the area we broke out of.
I also think that following the rule of going to the next timeframe higher upon each stopout, would really help with mitigating my risk.
This was a very difficult trading session due to many mixed signals on my days VWAP. I was thinking long, which was the first initial move. I just got chopped out of all of my variation signals. And the moment I tried to trade against the range, I got squeezed. But ultimately, the trade OTD that worked was off of yesterdays orderblock signals, from M30 orderblocks down to the M2 Orderblocks. That was in confluence with another H12 bullish trend attempt and fakeout for a move lower. The only difference with todays setup was that the H12 candle didnt sweep the Buy Side Liquidity from the orderblocks presented before it dropped. Thats why this action was so tricky. It was a fight for price the entire time, and my trend shift signals kept going off, I will have to implement rules that keep me from getting chopped out like this in the future.
The short rejection came from the prior day 15 Minute Bearish Orderblock. The orderblock sequence was larger timeframe orderblocks lower to higher. As the timeframes granually got shorter as the orderblocks went higher, (as it should during a short trade) this M15 bearish orderblock was ABOVE the 5 minute and 2 minute bearish orderblocks. In the future, I will have to make sure that I implement it as a rule, that if there is an inconsistency with orderblocks in relation to their location, that will be the new A+ orderblock rule.
I will make it official
(New Trading Rule For Orderblocks)
Order blocks that come from shorts, tend to come from lower timeframes the higher the orderblock
Orderblocks that come from longs, tend to come from lower timeframes the lower the orderblock
Our new rule is
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframeframe is above an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a short, that will be our short signal***
***If an orderblock from a higher timeframe is below an orderblock from a lower timeframe for a long, that will be our long signal.***
NOW THAT YOU ARE FUNDED, YOU **MUST MUST MUST** NOT TRADE MORE THAN 1 MICRO ON ANY GIVEN TRADE FOR **AT LEAST** THE FIRST 10 TRADING DAYS OF BEING FUNDED. YOU SIMPLY CANNOT EXECUTE TRADES WITH THE SAME AMOUNT OF RISK YOU HAVE USED TO PASS THIS EVALUATION. OUR MAIN PRIORITY IS SIMPLY GETTING OUR FIRST PAYOUT. MAKING TRADING BECOME REAL, SEEING SOMETHING IN RETURN FOR THE YEARS OF HARD WORK AND DEDICATION YOU HAVE PUT TOWARDS THIS CRAFT. YOU OWE IT TO YOURSELF, AND YOU DESERVE IT.
IF YOU TAKE 1 MICRO CONTRACT WITH YOUR SYSTEM, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO INCREASE YOUR TRADING FREQUENCY, BUILD THE CONFIDENCE FOR HITTING THE BUY OR SELL BUTTON AND GETTING RID OF FEAR AND HESITATION, HELPING YOU FINE TUNE YOUR STRATEGY IN THE PROCESS SO THAT YOU CAN HELP DEVELOP YOUR PLAYBOOK AND TRADING RULES.
WITH GOOD TRADES YOU SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE TO MAKE AROUND 250-300 BUCKS TRADING A DAY. AND AFTER THE 10 DAY PERIOD, THAT IS A 2500 PAYOUT, 5K A MONTH,
9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
General Observations:
Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.
Wrong:
Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.
Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.
Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.
4o
9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.
11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick.
3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.
Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future.
Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops.
Initiated a short position at the break of the prior day’s low (PML) during the premarket session.
Noticed a gap between the prior day's close and the premarket open, indicating a potential shift in direction.
Recognized displacement below the key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, confirming a bearish bias.
After a failed long trade attempt off the VWAP band, confirmed the shift in direction and shorted the PML as it was the only clear stop-loss placement.
Trade Execution:
The trade was immediately profitable, indicating strong downside pressure with no drawdown from the entry point.
Decided to let the trade run without a specific downside target, anticipating a trend day based on the weekly chart moves and the strong sell-side pressure.
Market Behavior:
Observed consistent lower lows with no retests of the entry price, reinforcing the strength of the entry.
The VWAP and Lowerband continued to downtrend, acting as a continuation sell signal with massive downside volume.
Outcome:
Took a walk and decided to lock in profits upon return, closing the trade with over $500 in profit, pushing the account balance over $1,000.
Additional Notes:
End-of-Day Reflection:
Achieved the biggest profit day on the account, totaling over $1,200.
Increased trading frequency based on the notes suggesting the VWAP trade as an "easy money trade."
Faced a critical moment with a VWAP dip buy that came close to blowing the account but was saved by the monthly VWAP support.
Acknowledged the risk of trading too heavily, with a full position size of 16+ contracts, and the importance of not over-leveraging with a trailing drawdown.
Key Takeaways:
Successful in capitalizing on the VWAP patterns and adhering to the identified signals.
Realized the importance of managing position size and avoiding excessive risk.
Future trades will be limited to entering 1 micro at a time and building positions incrementally to manage risk effectively.
Key Lessons:
Right:
Accurately identified the VWAP lower band as a support level, leading to a well-timed short entry.
Trusted the VWAP signals and followed the identified patterns, resulting in significant profits.
Wrong:
Took on excessive risk by trading too heavily with 16+ contracts, nearly risking the account.
Averaging down to improve price, although it worked out this time, it is not a sustainable strategy given the trailing drawdown.
Overall Summary: This trade highlighted the effectiveness of using VWAP patterns and signals to identify high-probability trades. While the execution led to significant profits, it also underscored the importance of risk management and the dangers of over-leveraging. The adjustment to trading frequency and position sizing will be crucial for sustaining future success and protecting the account from significant drawdowns.
Today I made a great deal of money, my biggest day on this account since I began, in total, I made over $1200 dollars. and I did it in part because I did tweak my 2 trade rule today, and I actually spent most of the day involved in a trade, and its because I realize that I need to pick up my trading frequency on the trade that has been suggested from my notes, and that is my VWAP trade. It seems to currently be my 'easy money trade'. And I just decided to keep taking the signals and trusting the outcome.
I will same, I came waaay to close to blowing the account today, and that was with a VWAP dip buy, that was saved by the Month VWAP. It wound up sweeping the 9:30 Open Low, taking the long stops from the morning session, and then ripping in my direction. It really was a make or break moment for this account, and I nearly lost it. I was waaay to heavy in size, at full position was around 16 plus contracts. I can never do that again. I was averaging down to improve my price, and although it went in my direction, thats besides the point. You simply cant trade that size with trailing drawdown ever.
So therefor, If I want to increase my trading frequency, I can only enter 1 Micro at a time, and build a position with 1 Micro at a time. With this particular trade, I was slapping the trade with 2 micros at a time. And its too heavy.
The only way I can add is with A side setups, and confirmations through multiple timeframes.
Slept in late due to lack of response from APEX regarding trading issues.
Missed trading opportunities as a result.
Trade of the Day Setup:
VWAP Analysis:
Today's setup was a straightforward VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short on the M1 timeframe.
The 2 Day Anchored VWAP did not present any extremes for a short entry.
Insights:
Plan to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines for identifying high probability trade entries.
Recognized the importance of being prepared and at the computer early, especially before significant data drops.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations and VWAP bands for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands or prior significant levels (Daily Open, Previous High/Low).
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Another no trade day, I slept in late because I never got an early response from APEX on the inability to trade. And although its likely made me miss alot of opportunity this week, I will be at the computer early tomorrow before data.
With that being said, todays trade of the day was a simple VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short off of the 1 Day M1 timeframe. The 2 Day Anchored VWAP didnt provide any extremitiy to either of the bands to short.
But, this week has provided some insight, that it will likely be smart to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines in the future for high probability trade entries.
Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.
Recommendations and Learnings
Discipline and Routine:
Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.
Missed Opportunities:
While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.
Trade of the Day Analysis:
Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.
Risk Management:
Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.
Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy
Playbook Development
Setup Identification:
Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.
Execution Guidelines:
Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.
Review and Adapt:
Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.
Checklist for Future Trades
Preparation:
Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.
Execution:
Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.
Reflection:
Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.
By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.
No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.
I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.
Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.
One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.
Trade Execution: Attempted a short position following the 2nd attempt at ATH (All-Time High), leveraging various technical patterns for entry.
Patterns Identified:
2nd ATH short attempt: Capitalized on a potential reversal pattern after failing to break ATH.
Immediate stopout: Likely triggered by volatility or quick reversal against the anticipated direction.
M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation: Signal of shift from bullish to bearish sentiment on M1 timeframe.
M1 red bar trail stop: Used a trailing stop strategy based on M1 bar movements.
Missed Target: Potential failure to reach anticipated target due to market dynamics or premature exit.
VWAP Upperband short: Positioned entry based on VWAP Upperband indicating potential resistance.
VWAP Upperband To Lowerband: Expected move from VWAP Upperband to Lowerband as confirmation of downtrend continuation.
Analysis and Insights:
Execution Timing: Attempted to capitalize on reversal patterns near ATH, using technical signals for entry.
Outcome: Immediate stopout suggests volatility or reversal against the anticipated direction, leading to a small gain.
Pattern Utilization: Integrated multiple patterns to identify short opportunities aligned with market conditions.
Integration into Playbook Strategy
Key Elements for Playbook Development
Learning from Immediate Stopout:
Evaluate reasons for immediate stopouts to refine entry criteria and avoid false signals.
Consider adjusting timing or confirmation signals to reduce premature exits.
Pattern Validation:
Continuously validate patterns across different timeframes to confirm trade setups.
Refine playbook with setups that consistently align with market behavior and trend confirmations.
Risk Management:
Enhance risk management strategies to mitigate losses during volatile market conditions.
Implement trailing stops or adjust position sizing based on pattern reliability and market volatility.
Conclusion
This trade analysis underscores the importance of integrating multiple patterns and technical indicators into a cohesive trading strategy while emphasizing disciplined risk management. Continue to evaluate trade outcomes to refine your playbook and adapt to evolving market dynamics.
The first short attempt I tried was on prior data suggesting that the 2nd ATH break should provide the HOD from where we could drop. After this first short trade, I could have avoided it by waiting for a test of the VWAP Upperband.
I now know that the VWAP upperband, is a more important factor than the amount of times that the ATH breaks.
And Upperband VWAP test, with an M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation provided a high probability, consistent trade setup thus far. And from the setups I have witnessed, once an extreme on the bands has been hit, it appears that a full move to the other exremity is likely from the point of entry
(Things I Did Right)
- Getting a solid entry on the second short opportunity at the M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation setup off of the VWAP Upperband
- Trailstopping half position on the first initial pump back up, allowing me to capture a bit more downside
(Things I did wrong)
- Taking profit on the trade too early, without reaching the bottom band as a profit target on the highest R/R short entry opportunity of the day
Just as my prior trade today, I need to develop a trail stopping strategy to help me capture the dominant move in the future, and for now my theory is to test different timeframes based on entries to find which one captures the most amount of profit on average
Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.
What You Can Improve:
Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.
Next Steps:
Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.
Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.
Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.
Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.
I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day.
Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.
I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.
ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.
(Things I did right)
- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan
- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH
- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion
- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level
- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade
- Sizing with Open Print Theory
- Trading with a playbook concept
- Following my hard stoplosses
- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.
- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.
- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket
(Things I did wrong)
- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.
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