I caught an upperband to lowerband short, as I came into this trading session looking for an 'easy money trade'.
I was stop hunted on the first move, and immediately re entered on the second variation, with slightly bigger size, because the stoploss was tighter.
I hit my first take profit, and had a lower takeprofit on my second partial, but unfortunately was wicked out, trail stopping on the 5 minute chart, and as Im typing this now, it is almost at my second take profit for my partial.
It is what it is, I guess I could have just left the second partial with a stopout at breakeven instead, but I really wasnt interested in doing that because I wanted to at least make over 100 dollars today. What really messed me up a little bit was the first stopout, because I likely would have just covered 2 contracts on the first take profit, but because I was barely up on the day after covering a partial from the first initial loss, I wanted to let the second trade run, and if it came back to breakeven, woulda been a pretty crap trading day profit wise, so... read price correctly, just got unlucky on the trail stop grab.
I accidentally left a fucking limit order at my second tp and it filled me long and I got destroyed on the position and gave back over 100 dollars. So fucking annoying.
Overtrading: Took more trades than desired due to tight range trading between VWAP upper and lower bands, with wide candles contributing to difficulty in stop loss management.
Forced into Lower Timeframes: Despite a focus on higher timeframes in recent journal entries, had to trade the 1-minute chart due to wide stop losses on the 5-minute chart (60 points).
Choppy Price Action: Traded 1-minute fair value gaps, but frequent direction changes led to multiple "papercut" losses. Entry points were invalidated quickly by opposing squeezes.
Frustration and FOMO: Felt frustration from perceived stop runs and re-entered trades with increased size, even holding through large drawdowns. Almost fell below the $50K threshold on the evaluation account.
High-Risk Decision: Took on more size and risk than intended, holding trades with a mental stop at the high of day. Luckily, the market dropped in favor of the trade before hitting the stop.
Trade of the Day Setup: Identified the trade of the day as a high-of-day reversal (bullish-to-bearish 1-minute variation), with a break and retest of an order block, though execution felt risky due to potential for a squeeze higher.
Dislike for High Volume of Trades: Prefers taking a maximum of two trades but was forced to cut and re-enter due to wide stop losses. The overall market thesis remained intact despite the challenges.
Hard Stop Losses Necessary: Realized the importance of using hard stop losses when trading fair value gaps around key 50% marks, as these areas attract squeezes.
Market Conditions: Observed that the market isn't trending cleanly, making quick take-profits more suitable in the current environment. Awaiting a more trending market to execute bigger trades and pass the evaluation.
Excitement for Evaluation: Eager to pass the evaluation and optimistic about doing so on the first try, despite the day's challenges.
I took way more trades today than I would have liked, and its likely because I was trading a decently tight range from a upper and lowerband vwap deviation perspective, and the candles were fairly wide. On the 5 minute chart specifically, I would have had to take a 60 point stoploss from the bullish to bearish variation, and I didnt want to take that big of a loss. So although alot of my journaling sessions lately have suggested that I should focus on the higher timeframes, it seems I had no choice other than to trade the 1 minute chart today.
I was focusing mostly on 1 minute chart fair value gaps today, and figured that the displacement through the daily 50% fair value gap, would suffice a low drawdown entry move to the downside, but there was alot of chop, and inability to stay in my postion because of the tighter stoplosses, wider price swing moves, and consistent change in direction bias from the fair value gaps on the 1 minute chart. One second i would have displacement through a level, and then the next minute would squeeze back in the opposite direction and invalidate my position. So in the morning session, I was taking quite a bit of papercut losses. And I wouldnt exactly say that I traded well today at all, regardless of the fact that I ended the day green.
I also was getting annoyed by what I felt was manipulation stop runs on my positions, so the moment price would go in my favor again, I would re enter, and with more size. and there was even a point where my drawdown on this evaluation account was below the 50K threshold which means I could have lost last weeks gains. And honestly, when it was squeezing against me, I likely should have stopped out, but I decided to hold, with alot more size than I should have been involved in the trade with, and had a mental stoploss at the high of day.
Luckily, it was a manipulation, and immediately dropped, coming very close to my stopout point, before ultimately going in my favor.
As it currently stands, the trade of day setup is a high of day reversal, bullish to bearish 1 minute variation, with a break and retest of the orderblock. So many extremity points testing the will of traders in todays session.
I happened to get a little lower than higher of an entry compared to that 1 minute supply zone created off of the open, but it seemed it was at such high risk for a squeeze higher to try to play that extremity, especially because that level was above the 50% mark for the daily fair value gap, so i figured it would be more confirmation for my short side entry.
I really dislike taking this high volume of trades during the day, and generally like to keep it at 2 trades max, but the overall thesis was never invalidated, it was simply that the stoplosses were a bit wide for my liking, so it was better to just cut the trade and re enter.
I also noticed that when im trading fair value gaps, I simply cannot wait for candle closure stoplosses, especially when Im trading around the 50% marks. These areas are magnets for squeezes and can result in big losses, so unfortunately, these need to be traded with hard stop losses, and i think the best spot would be the high or low at the variation & displacement candle contrary to the directional bias.
On todays trading day specifically, it doesnt seem there was any clear 'no drawdown' on entry, type signal. And you really just had to trade the choppy price action manually.
The market isnt really trending clean, and seems we are in a take profit quicker enviornment at the moment. I am excited for when the market starts trending again, so that I can lock up some nice trades and pass this evaluation.
it would be really awesome if I also passed this evaluation on my first try.
First trade: A bit of a chase after closing below 19260 (prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband). Should have considered the 1D Lowerband on the session and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP.
No red bar closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart, hence no full confirmation of a continuation selloff.
Second trade: 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart; correct theory but did not work out.
Decision: Focus on the M5 timeframe that worked today.
11:06 AM:
Current Trade:
Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP.
Unsure about holding duration but targeting 19030 (an aggressive target).
Following the rule of using a lower timeframe entry, then moving to the next higher timeframe if needed.
M5 chart was the successful timeframe for the day.
2:58 PM:
End of Day Analysis:
Mentally taxing day, watched position return to breakeven and waited for hours for a drop.
Should have covered at the first test of the 2D Month VWAP upperband.
Trading with 1 contract made it harder to respect covers.
Need to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades with 1 contract.
Could have avoided the loss and been up $200 by waiting for the M5 chart instead of M2.
Sign trade was going against me: reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift and squeeze of the H12 LIS at 19168.
Battle between shorts holding the HOD and longs holding the LOD, with M5 entries from both HOD and LOD holding.
Things Done Right
Adaptability: Adjusted to M5 chart after M2 chart trades failed.
Stoploss Management: Adhered to stoploss rules and moved up the timeframe for a more reliable signal.
Trade Management: Held position with a clear understanding of the trade's setup and signals.
Recognition of Patterns: Identified the importance of different VWAP bands and levels in trade decisions.
Things Done Wrong
Target Setting: Had an overly aggressive target for the day; should have considered closer profit-taking points.
Trade Size Management: Took on too much size with one contract, leading to difficulty in managing the trade.
Initial Trade Chasing: First trade was a bit of a chase and not fully confirmed by signals.
Timeframe Selection: Initial reliance on M2 chart led to losses; should have waited for M5 signals.
What to Continue Doing
Using Higher Timeframes: Continue using higher timeframes for confirmation when lower timeframe signals fail.
Adhering to Stoploss Rules: Keep following strict stoploss rules to manage risk.
Analyzing Signals: Maintain thorough analysis of entry and exit signals across different timeframes.
Journal Keeping: Continue detailed journaling to track performance and learn from each trade.
What to Avoid
Overly Aggressive Targets: Avoid setting targets that are too far away; consider more achievable profit-taking points.
Large Position Sizes: Avoid taking large positions that are difficult to manage, especially when only trading with one contract.
Trade Chasing: Avoid chasing trades without full confirmation of signals.
Ignoring Confirmations: Avoid ignoring important confirmations on higher timeframes that contradict lower timeframe signals.
By focusing on these aspects, you can improve your consistency and profitability while avoiding common pitfalls.
4o
10:08AM: Took 2 papercuts off the opening, M2 chart failed on the first sell signal, im am now taking a M5 sell signal. The first trade I took, was kind of a chase, because we closed below a key level I had at 19260, which was the prior day sell range from the 1D VWAP Upperband. I thought because we closed below that level, we would see a continuation selloff. But I should have payed more attention to the 1D Lowerband on the session, and the M2 long signal from the variation at the 1D VWAP. There was no red bar that closed below the 1D VWAP on the M2 chart. So there was no full confirmation of a continuation selloff. The second trade I took, was a 1D VWAP Upperband short from the M2 chart, which was the correct theory, just didnt work out. This is why I came to the conclution that tomorrow I will focus on the timeframe that worked today, which was M5
11:06AM: I am currently up on the trade. Trading the M5 sell signal from the top of the 2 Day 5 Minute Monthly VWAP. Im not exactly sure yet on how long I should be holding this, but sell side liquidity grabs seem to be in play. My ultimate target on the day I guess is 19030. But that is an extremely aggressive target.
It worked very well for me to follow the rule of a stoploss with a lower timeframe entry, when unwilling to give up the same trade idea, just gradually move to the next timeframe higher. It lowers trade frequency, expands the range/scope of the move, and requires more confirmation. But M5 chart was most certainly the winner for the day.
2:58PM: im officially done trading OTD. Very Very mentally taxing first trading day. Watched my entire position come back to breakeven, and wait literally hours for the same drop. Should have covered from the first test of the 2D Month VWAP from the upperband, being I was only trading with 1 contract. This is the difficult part of only utilizing 1 contract. I dont respect covers as much. Its must easier for me to exit a full position when I have at least 2 contracts.
The main thing I did wrong today was being too far out on my target. The fact that I was playing the Month 2D VWAP, shouldve required me to take profit at the first VWAP test. Instead of going for the prior day band low at 19031.97 which was a 1D M1 Lower Band Target.
With that being said, I think trading 1 contract is going to require me to take quick profits at VWAP for mean reversion trades, Its going to be very difficult to catch full top to bottom band moves with only 1 contract.
Also, I could have avoided todays loss, and been up around 200 OTD only trading 1 micro contract, if I just waited for the turn of the M5 chart instead od M2. I will go into tomorrows trading session with that in mind.
Another sign that the trade was going to go against me was the reclaim of the 1D VWAP Lowerband trend shift. It was holding below, but then squeezed the H12 LIS at 19168.
It was a battle between shorts holding the HOD, and longs holding the LOD. And both M5 entries that came from the HOD and LOD have held this far (3:31PM)
9:27 AM: Short bias due to H12 downtrend. Expected no significant bullish trend shift until breaking above 19380.
11:40 AM: Initial losses from failing to act on short entry signals at PML, chasing shorts, and not taking profits on scalps. Added to a losing position, increasing risk.
3:38 PM: Managed to recover losses and finished the day up $1200 by shorting after a failed H12 bullish move. This trade capitalized on VWAP Upperband rejection in an extended range.
General Observations:
Day began with mixed signals, leading to initial losses due to mismanagement and aggressive positions.
Recovered by identifying a strong short setup based on multiple confluences: H12 trend, VWAP levels, and range top.
Emphasized the importance of defining and respecting the 'Line In The Sand' level for future trades.
Key Takeaways:
Right:
Successfully identified a high-probability short setup and executed it effectively, recovering from earlier losses.
Recognized the significance of multiple timeframe analysis and VWAP interactions.
Wrong:
Initial mismanagement of trades, including chasing positions and not cutting losses promptly.
Over-leveraging on initial trades led to significant drawdowns.
Outcome: Closed the day with a $1200 profit after recovering from initial losses.
Overall Summary: The trading session was challenging due to mixed signals and initial mismanagement. However, the user was able to turn the day around by sticking to their analysis and executing a high-confluence short trade at the VWAP Upperband. The session highlighted the importance of defining and respecting key levels ('Line In The Sand') and managing risk more effectively.
4o
9:27 AM. Currently short biased. H12 is downtrending, and for it to trend shift, would be above the 19380 area. And even if the market does happen to shift from our candles perspective. The move actually wouldnt be provided until tomorrow because the daily is still downtrending. As well as the weekly, which has another DOL lower through more buy orders.
11:40. I fked up today big time, didnt take the short entry signal at the break of the PML, chased short way to low. Didnt take profit on the scalp I should have. Didnt cut a multiple signals. Added to a losing trade when the A side of the setup was invalidated. All because I wanted to be a dick for a tick.
3:38PM. WOW. traded my way back to positive, and also finished the day up $1200. Faded the upward break attempt of the H12 candle at the top of the range, and shorted all the way back down, I got a sell signal from the upperband of the daily VWAP. And although I was risking a squeeze, I thought it was less likely because we were at the top of a very extended range.
Todays trading day was very back and forth, alot of stress, and I spent most of the day trading at my screen. My brain is fried. The market opened in the center of the VWAP and top band, Since it was obviously in the center of a range, I decided not to short off of the open, but I came into the session short biased because of the overnight DOL and the lower DOL on higher timeframes. I was also aware that there are alot of buy limit orders below, and I figured we would spend another day driving into all of that liquidity to the sell side, and yet again trapping longs on the day somehwat like yesterdays price action.So the market fell below VWAP off of the open, and because the top wick of the next M2 candle was slightly below the VWAP, I knew that there was a chance that my buystop long trade at the trend reversal on M2 could fail. So i was anticipating that I would at minimum have to wait for the bar to close above the VWAP on the reversal if I was going to take the market off of the open.It porceeded to drop lower,and came back to the the VWAP, in my mind I was thinking it was a good place to short, but I decided to pass up on the trade. At the spot where it says 'missed short' was a trend confirmation entry to the downside, which I figured was a continuation trap on longs from the bottom VWAP band. But I passed up on the trade. I didnt know if it was going to rip against me. Like a dummy, I chased short, and what do you know. it ripped against me. I also was in profit on my chased short, but stupidly did not cover profit at a clear take profit level. The trade went against me, stopped me out, I re entered short at what I thought was the bottom of the range, but what do you know, complete V Shaped recovery. The worst part about this loss wasnt the stopout, It was that I went it too heavy and lost more money than I should have.I collected my thoughts, and seen a simple easy money trade setting up at the VWAP as it was ascending higher, and got my M2 confirmation for an entry. My target was the top of the VWAP band at 19320.Above that, was and H12 candle that has yet to break its trend, with the line in the sand being 19380 on the session, and I actually spotted this level the day prior, and told Paul about the entry. Well, since it was the top of the range, and the next chart over from H12 on the daily trend was very far away, with it also aligning with my prior day analysis, at the top of an extended range from the top VWAP band, I decided on taking the short.It was a very uncomfortable trade, and I was likely sized a bit heavier than I should be, but it just felt like a very A+ trade that I didnt want to pass up on.There were so many confluences. H12 top range, over extended market, VWAP Upperband setup, still downtrending on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Spotted day prior. Was waiting for potential 1PM sell side, which I stated in group chat.With that being said, I think I can for sure with confidence, officially define the 'Line In The Sand' on each trading session, with the H12 high or low depending on its trend. We will now implement this in the future.
Oh, and I could have waited for the 'Line In The Sand' Level to have triggered, and waited for the turn of M2 and M5 to go short. It was also a technical stoploss level, because it was risking a squeeze higher. In the future I will have to remember to implement this concept so that I can avoid getting in the trade too early. The 'Line In The Sand' could have acted at Buy Side Liquidity for this trading session, signaling that early shorted could get squeezed before the liquidity is ran. The moment it hit the level, ran the liquidity and had a price action response off of the level, could have been our trigger to get short with new HOD stops.
Initiated a short position at the break of the prior day’s low (PML) during the premarket session.
Noticed a gap between the prior day's close and the premarket open, indicating a potential shift in direction.
Recognized displacement below the key 1 Day VWAP Lowerband, confirming a bearish bias.
After a failed long trade attempt off the VWAP band, confirmed the shift in direction and shorted the PML as it was the only clear stop-loss placement.
Trade Execution:
The trade was immediately profitable, indicating strong downside pressure with no drawdown from the entry point.
Decided to let the trade run without a specific downside target, anticipating a trend day based on the weekly chart moves and the strong sell-side pressure.
Market Behavior:
Observed consistent lower lows with no retests of the entry price, reinforcing the strength of the entry.
The VWAP and Lowerband continued to downtrend, acting as a continuation sell signal with massive downside volume.
Outcome:
Took a walk and decided to lock in profits upon return, closing the trade with over $500 in profit, pushing the account balance over $1,000.
Additional Notes:
End-of-Day Reflection:
Achieved the biggest profit day on the account, totaling over $1,200.
Increased trading frequency based on the notes suggesting the VWAP trade as an "easy money trade."
Faced a critical moment with a VWAP dip buy that came close to blowing the account but was saved by the monthly VWAP support.
Acknowledged the risk of trading too heavily, with a full position size of 16+ contracts, and the importance of not over-leveraging with a trailing drawdown.
Key Takeaways:
Successful in capitalizing on the VWAP patterns and adhering to the identified signals.
Realized the importance of managing position size and avoiding excessive risk.
Future trades will be limited to entering 1 micro at a time and building positions incrementally to manage risk effectively.
Key Lessons:
Right:
Accurately identified the VWAP lower band as a support level, leading to a well-timed short entry.
Trusted the VWAP signals and followed the identified patterns, resulting in significant profits.
Wrong:
Took on excessive risk by trading too heavily with 16+ contracts, nearly risking the account.
Averaging down to improve price, although it worked out this time, it is not a sustainable strategy given the trailing drawdown.
Overall Summary: This trade highlighted the effectiveness of using VWAP patterns and signals to identify high-probability trades. While the execution led to significant profits, it also underscored the importance of risk management and the dangers of over-leveraging. The adjustment to trading frequency and position sizing will be crucial for sustaining future success and protecting the account from significant drawdowns.
Today I made a great deal of money, my biggest day on this account since I began, in total, I made over $1200 dollars. and I did it in part because I did tweak my 2 trade rule today, and I actually spent most of the day involved in a trade, and its because I realize that I need to pick up my trading frequency on the trade that has been suggested from my notes, and that is my VWAP trade. It seems to currently be my 'easy money trade'. And I just decided to keep taking the signals and trusting the outcome.
I will same, I came waaay to close to blowing the account today, and that was with a VWAP dip buy, that was saved by the Month VWAP. It wound up sweeping the 9:30 Open Low, taking the long stops from the morning session, and then ripping in my direction. It really was a make or break moment for this account, and I nearly lost it. I was waaay to heavy in size, at full position was around 16 plus contracts. I can never do that again. I was averaging down to improve my price, and although it went in my direction, thats besides the point. You simply cant trade that size with trailing drawdown ever.
So therefor, If I want to increase my trading frequency, I can only enter 1 Micro at a time, and build a position with 1 Micro at a time. With this particular trade, I was slapping the trade with 2 micros at a time. And its too heavy.
The only way I can add is with A side setups, and confirmations through multiple timeframes.
Woke up past my alarm but identified a break and retest setup which aligned with my trading strategy.
The pre-market open served as support, which broke, and then retested as resistance.
Entered the short trade as the price moved through the overnight gap between the prior day's close and the pre-market open.
Targeted the next draw on liquidity, which was the weekly low, following the direction of the prevailing trend.
Observed that using the M5 chart provided better entry opportunities with minimal drawdown, and high hit rate.
Noted that the draw on liquidity approach has been effective in predicting the next target.
Insights and Strategy Adjustments:
Plan to monitor potential bounces at the 20D (Month Low) and recent liquidity sweeps at the weekly low in future sessions.
If bulls fail to hold the level, the next target could be the prior month low, which is a significant distance away.
Consider waiting for prior order block entries on smaller timeframes if a bullish trend shift occurs off the monthly level.
Realized the importance of sizing correctly and the impact it could have had on the trade's profitability. Missed an opportunity to size appropriately due to waking up late and acting on gut instinct.
Emphasized the importance of proper candle timeframe alignment for better trade timing, reducing premature entries, and ensuring high accuracy.
Performance and Reflection:
The trade went in my favor, and the setup was validated by the break and retest pattern.
Noted that waiting for the right candle timeframe alignment to provide liquidity has been beneficial for accurate trade timing.
Identified the need for better pre-market preparation to avoid missing sizing opportunities and maximize trading potential.
Updated Trading Rules and Checklist:
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Incorporate Weekly Draw on Liquidity, Inverse FVG, and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, Break & Retest, and FVGs for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability order blocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.
Incorporate Weekly Analysis:
Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.
Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:
Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.
Entry Size and Risk Management:
Ensure proper position sizing using the position size calculator before entering a trade.
Avoid trading based on gut instinct and ensure all trades align with the predefined strategy and setup criteria.
Please provide the next trade entry and notes for further analysis and refinement.
4o
I woke up past my alarm clock, but I seen a trade setup present itself, and it went in my favor.
This was a break and retest setup/support turned resistance play for the premarket open serving as support in the premarket, which broke, went through the overnight gap between the prior day close and pre market open, and I took it for further downside toward the next draw on liquidity which was the weekly low. As that is the direction the market was still trending.
Draw on liquidity has worked well thus far with predicting the next target for me, and its a very simplistic approach of where the trend is likely to go next due to prior price action trend with multi-timeframe analysis.
Another I noted, was that the M5 chart may provide slightly better opportunities for entry for the time being, due to the higher timeframe levels being presented at the moment, and it appears the M5 variations provided no drawdown upon entry with high hit rate, so for now I will execute on that timeframe unless the data suggests otherwise.
Going into tomorrows trading session, I will be watching for a potential bounce at the 20D (Month Low) and for the most recent sweep on liquidity at the weekly low, to potentially hold for a bounce. If the bulls fail to hold the level tomorrow, I would expect that the next DOL is the prior month low, which is quite far away. There is also a 61.8% retracement level between the 30D Low to High. And since the range will likely be very large from a bearish to bullish trend shift, it may be smart to wait for prior orderblock entries on the smaller timeframes, if we do happen to get that bullish trend shift off of this monthly level.
I should have hit the trade I entered today with more size, but because my alarm clock didnt go off, I was unable to properly size, and because I went off gut instinct, I only took 1 contract. If I sized correctly, it likely could have been around an $800-$900 trading day.
Another thing that has been helping tremendously is waiting for the proper candle timeframe alignment for the move, when that specific candle is actually offer the buy side or sell side liquidity that Im expecting, I think that is the best way to actually time my trades. Other then getting in too early and getting stopped out with death by 1000 cuts. And while providing that liquidty, it also provides a trend shift & variation to ensure high accuracy & the A+ side of a setup.
Slept in late due to lack of response from APEX regarding trading issues.
Missed trading opportunities as a result.
Trade of the Day Setup:
VWAP Analysis:
Today's setup was a straightforward VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short on the M1 timeframe.
The 2 Day Anchored VWAP did not present any extremes for a short entry.
Insights:
Plan to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines for identifying high probability trade entries.
Recognized the importance of being prepared and at the computer early, especially before significant data drops.
Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
Entry Criteria:
Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations and VWAP bands for precise entry points.
Stop Loss and Targets:
Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands or prior significant levels (Daily Open, Previous High/Low).
Execution Strategy:
Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.
Data Collection and Analysis:
Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.
Avoid Overtrading:
If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.
Premarket Routine:
Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.
Mental Preparedness:
If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.
VWAP Tracking:
Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
Another no trade day, I slept in late because I never got an early response from APEX on the inability to trade. And although its likely made me miss alot of opportunity this week, I will be at the computer early tomorrow before data.
With that being said, todays trade of the day was a simple VWAP Upperband to Lowerband short off of the 1 Day M1 timeframe. The 2 Day Anchored VWAP didnt provide any extremitiy to either of the bands to short.
But, this week has provided some insight, that it will likely be smart to start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines in the future for high probability trade entries.
Discipline: Waking up late due to staying up late affected your ability to trade with discipline.
Missed Opportunity: Acknowledged that there were significant trading opportunities throughout the day.
Trade of the Day Setup: Noted straightforward short opportunities both premarket and during the trading session.
Observation on Patterns: Recognized that variations and trend shifts have shown a high hit rate and confirmation in trades.
Recommendations and Learnings
Discipline and Routine:
Maintain a disciplined sleep schedule to ensure you wake up well before trading hours.
Avoid activities that could disrupt your trading focus and schedule the night before.
Missed Opportunities:
While missed, use this as a motivation to stay disciplined and capitalize on future opportunities.
Review missed setups to identify patterns and refine your playbook strategy.
Trade of the Day Analysis:
Continue to identify and document Trade of the Day setups for playbook development.
Focus on variations and trend shifts as they have shown higher success rates.
Risk Management:
Emphasize the importance of risk management strategies, including position sizing and stop-loss placement.
Consider the potential impact of volatility on trade decisions and adjust strategies accordingly.
Integrating Learnings into Playbook Strategy
Playbook Development
Setup Identification:
Clearly define entry criteria for variations and trend shifts identified premarket and during trading hours.
Incorporate VWAP and other technical indicators to confirm setups.
Execution Guidelines:
Ensure timely execution based on identified Trade of the Day setups.
Validate setups against broader market conditions and economic data releases.
Review and Adapt:
Regularly review trade outcomes and adjust playbook strategies based on performance data.
Continuously refine entries, exits, and risk management protocols to improve consistency.
Checklist for Future Trades
Preparation:
Commit to a disciplined routine, including adequate rest and premarket analysis.
Document and analyze potential setups based on identified patterns and indicators.
Execution:
Execute trades based on predefined criteria and playbook strategies.
Monitor market conditions and adapt strategies as necessary during trading hours.
Reflection:
Reflect on each trading day to assess performance against predefined goals and strategies.
Capture insights and lessons learned to inform future trading decisions and adjustments.
By integrating these recommendations into your trading approach, you can enhance consistency and profitability while reducing the impact of emotional or impulsive decisions. If you have more trades or specific details to discuss, please share them so we can continue refining your playbook strategy and checklist.
No Trade Day for me, I was talking way too late with a baddie from Monkey, and I woke up around 11:45, It was bad discipline on my part, and for that reason, I didnt want to pull the trigger.
I did miss a pretty volatile day with plenty of opportunity, actually, probably the most opportunity of the week. But, I got myself out of drawdown this week so far, and I still have tomorrows trading day left, so I will try to make the win for the week in tomorrows trading session.
Other than that, here is the 'Trade Of The Day' setup, both premarket DATA & in session trading opportunities, fairly straghtforward shorts.
One thing I am definitely noticing is that a Variation & and Trend Shift, seems to have very high hit rate and win percentage statistics and higher confirmation overall.
Trade Execution: Attempted a short position following the 2nd attempt at ATH (All-Time High), leveraging various technical patterns for entry.
Patterns Identified:
2nd ATH short attempt: Capitalized on a potential reversal pattern after failing to break ATH.
Immediate stopout: Likely triggered by volatility or quick reversal against the anticipated direction.
M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation: Signal of shift from bullish to bearish sentiment on M1 timeframe.
M1 red bar trail stop: Used a trailing stop strategy based on M1 bar movements.
Missed Target: Potential failure to reach anticipated target due to market dynamics or premature exit.
VWAP Upperband short: Positioned entry based on VWAP Upperband indicating potential resistance.
VWAP Upperband To Lowerband: Expected move from VWAP Upperband to Lowerband as confirmation of downtrend continuation.
Analysis and Insights:
Execution Timing: Attempted to capitalize on reversal patterns near ATH, using technical signals for entry.
Outcome: Immediate stopout suggests volatility or reversal against the anticipated direction, leading to a small gain.
Pattern Utilization: Integrated multiple patterns to identify short opportunities aligned with market conditions.
Integration into Playbook Strategy
Key Elements for Playbook Development
Learning from Immediate Stopout:
Evaluate reasons for immediate stopouts to refine entry criteria and avoid false signals.
Consider adjusting timing or confirmation signals to reduce premature exits.
Pattern Validation:
Continuously validate patterns across different timeframes to confirm trade setups.
Refine playbook with setups that consistently align with market behavior and trend confirmations.
Risk Management:
Enhance risk management strategies to mitigate losses during volatile market conditions.
Implement trailing stops or adjust position sizing based on pattern reliability and market volatility.
Conclusion
This trade analysis underscores the importance of integrating multiple patterns and technical indicators into a cohesive trading strategy while emphasizing disciplined risk management. Continue to evaluate trade outcomes to refine your playbook and adapt to evolving market dynamics.
The first short attempt I tried was on prior data suggesting that the 2nd ATH break should provide the HOD from where we could drop. After this first short trade, I could have avoided it by waiting for a test of the VWAP Upperband.
I now know that the VWAP upperband, is a more important factor than the amount of times that the ATH breaks.
And Upperband VWAP test, with an M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation provided a high probability, consistent trade setup thus far. And from the setups I have witnessed, once an extreme on the bands has been hit, it appears that a full move to the other exremity is likely from the point of entry
(Things I Did Right)
- Getting a solid entry on the second short opportunity at the M1 Bullish to Bearish Variation setup off of the VWAP Upperband
- Trailstopping half position on the first initial pump back up, allowing me to capture a bit more downside
(Things I did wrong)
- Taking profit on the trade too early, without reaching the bottom band as a profit target on the highest R/R short entry opportunity of the day
Just as my prior trade today, I need to develop a trail stopping strategy to help me capture the dominant move in the future, and for now my theory is to test different timeframes based on entries to find which one captures the most amount of profit on average
Early Preparation: Waking up early allowed you to prepare well in advance and plan your trades.
Technical Analysis: Utilizing VWAP upper and lower bands for entry signals aligned with your trading strategy.
Adaptability: Taking a re-entry after the first attempt failed shows resilience and the ability to capitalize on subsequent setups.
Risk Management: Sizing your positions based on the Open Print Theory and reducing size after a win are sound risk management practices.
Playbook Execution: Trading based on established playbook concepts and following hard stop losses indicates discipline and consistency.
Trail Stopping: Correctly trail stopping at prior bar lows and invalidation points demonstrates good trade management.
What You Can Improve:
Event Risk Management: Waiting for significant events like Jerome Powell's announcements at 10 AM could potentially help in avoiding losses. Consider incorporating a rule to wait for such events to pass before entering trades.
VWAP Adjustment: Testing the +2.7 UpperBand and -3.2 LowerBand adjustment could provide more optimal trading signals. Monitor its effectiveness over more trades to decide whether to adopt it permanently.
Emotional Control: While you traded without emotion during re-entry, ensure this discipline continues in all trades, especially after initial setbacks.
Data Analysis: Continue tracking and analyzing data on the best timeframes for trail stopping to optimize your exits and potentially capture bigger moves.
Next Steps:
Data Collection: Continue recording and analyzing data on multi-timeframe candlestick trends and structures at specific times, such as around 9:30 AM, to refine your setups.
Strategy Refinement: Implement adjustments such as waiting for event risks like Jerome Powell's announcements and testing the VWAP adjustments to enhance your strategy's effectiveness.
Journaling: Keep detailed records of each trade, including rationale, setups, outcomes, and areas for improvement. This will help in identifying patterns and refining your approach over time.
Playbook Review: Regularly review successful "Trade of the Day" setups and previous price actions to train your mind for future entries.
Goof trading day today, I took a couple more trading setups than normal, becuase I decided to incorporate a VWAP with upper and lower bands today, and it worked out well, as I used to upperband for a short signal, when I got a bullish to bearish variation on the M1 candles on both attempts. Something I noticed today, was that while candle trend formation is important, I should still incorporate some of my previous strategy of candle structure, which is when a bullish to bearish variation, or bearish to bullish variation occurs. And this only happens when a contrary candle closes above or below a prior candle. Today I decided to take the A side of the M1 bullish to bearish variation when the trend shifted from the prior contrary candle.
Interestly, my theory on todays trading session was a long setup. As I was expecting the ATH playbook trade to play out, where we see an ATH failure, followed by a premarket open print dip buy. Since the ATH failure was the first setup presented to me, I decided to take that trade 1st. And by the time the long trade came around, I had a good deal of profit to stab at it with lower risk. My first short failed, and I actually almost walked away from the computer, but decided to stab one more time after I seen the buyside liquidity swept on my stop, followed by an M1 sell signal to clear the VWAP range. According to my Tradovate stats, todays win rate was 83% on 6 total trades taken. For now, I am going to keep the VWAP incorporated on my M1 chart, as the upper and lower bands give me a good visual on the expected range and target when any of the extremes are hit, and it also keeps my risk fairly low. With that being said, I think it will help me when the market is stuck in ranges and not trending, and will give me a good signal when to cover my trade. I am contemplating shifting the upperband to +2.7 since that was the mathematical sequence that triggered today, but I will give it one more trading day at +2.0 to see for sure, I think I just need more data.
Todays sizing was chosen by my idealistic long entry limit order from the premarket open dip buy to the premarket low range as a stoploss. And because I thought it was likely that we could see the premarket open print in todays session, due to prior ATH setups/failures etc, and because it was the obvious long area OTD, I decided to take the 3 contracts short, as if when it cleared the range down, theoretically I would be covered on my entire position if the long entry was triggered.
I figured the long theory could also fail, after I saw a bullish to bearish trend shift on the H6 chart. And that happened around 8:30AM. At that point, there was also no breach of the PMH, which signaled that the H6 candle was infact in a downtrend. When H6 shifts, its a likely scenario that the H12 can shift, and the low of the H12 candle/draw on liquidity was all the way to 20609 at the bottom of the range. Which would place the premarket open dip buy opportunity in the center of the range. With hindsight, the LOD sits at 20616, which is very close to the H12 draw on liquidity for the day.
Also, on the time of stopout, the TTM squeeze on M5 had an 'Okay To Trade' signal with no initiated squeeze.
I NOTICED SOMETHING. Yesterdays price action and playbook setup ALSO HAD and ATH break, and failure on the 2nd break as well as today. This is something we have to keep in mind for the future.
ALSO, THIS WAS *** TRADE OF THE DAY *** AND YOU RECORDED IT. Congrats, play it back in the future to train your mind for entrys again.
(Things I did right)
- Waking up on time, I was on the charts around 7 AM & had alot of time to gameplan
- Waiting for the UpperBand VWAP test to attempt a short at the ATH
- Giving a re entry trade an attempt after seeing another high probability setup without emotion
- Waiting for a bullish to bearish + trend shift on the M1 chart, Trading the correct side of the V with the upper band as my level
- Taking majority of profit off at the bottom band of the VWAP, and accepting a good trade
- Sizing with Open Print Theory
- Trading with a playbook concept
- Following my hard stoplosses
- Trailstoping correctly at prior bar lows & invalidation points.
- Reducing size after a win, so in the case of a loss I dont give back too many profits.
- Evaluating H6 trend shift in the premarket
(Things I did wrong)
- Not waiting for 10AM data to clear (Jerome Powell) I potentially could have avoided the loss if I waited until the 10AM move. At the moment this is unclear and I will need more data to support it.
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