9:30 Open Short, Daily Bearish Structure, Daily Bearish Trend, H12 Bearish Structure, H12 Bearish Trend, Pre Market Open Short, Weekly Bullish to Bearish Trend , Weekly Inverse FVG, Weekly Trend Reversal,

Trade Details: July 17, 2024

• Status: Closed
• Broker: Tradovate
• Asset: Future
• Future Date: July 17, 2024
• Future Name: /MNQN24
• Symbol: /MNQ
• Type: No Trade
• Patterns:
  • None executed

Notes:

Today's Trade Setup and Observations:

• No Trade Day:

  • Chose not to trade due to lack of high probability setups and observed volatility in the market.
  • Noted that many elite traders also had red trading days, reinforcing the decision not to trade.

• Trade of the Day Setup:

  • Premarket Analysis:
    • Observed H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly trend after a break of the Upper Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
    • Planned a short setup based on these trends, with a stop loss at the top of the FVG, but the stop loss distance (80-100 points) was too large for a tight entry with size.
  • Session Analysis:
    • The market opened at 9:30 in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP bands, with consistent downside momentum.
    • No extremities to trade against, such as VWAP band touches or mean reversion setups.
  • VWAP Settings and Observations:
    • Discovered the ability to adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month.
    • Plan to use Anchored VWAP with multi-day settings (1D-5D for Week, 1D-20D for Month) to align with key levels.
    • Aim to track data on timeframes that align perfectly with each multi-day VWAP deviation for future high probability entries.

Refined Trading Rules (Including New Insights):

1. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:

   • Perform multi-timeframe analysis (Weekly, Daily, H12) to establish the overall trend before each trading session.
   • Incorporate Weekly Inverse FVG and other key resistance/support levels into the analysis.

2. Entry Criteria:

   • Confirm entries on default timeframes (M1, M5, H1) only after trend confirmation on higher timeframes.
   • Use patterns like Bullish to Bearish variations, VWAP bands, and FVGs for precise entry points.

3. Stop Loss and Targets:

   • Set stop losses at logical levels (e.g., High of Day for shorts, Low of Day for longs).
   • Define targets clearly based on VWAP bands, prior significant levels, or identified support/resistance areas.

4. Execution Strategy:

   • Prefer buy/sell stop orders over limit orders to ensure entry in the desired direction.
   • Only take high probability trades that align with the superior trend and predefined patterns.

5. Data Collection and Analysis:

   • Continuously collect and analyze data on trades taken and missed opportunities.
   • Adjust strategy based on observed patterns and market behavior.

6. Avoid Overtrading:

   • If the first trade is stopped out, reverse the directional thesis for the second trade.
   • Focus on A side setups (initial moves) and avoid lower probability B setups (break and retest) unless at high-probability orderblocks.

7. Premarket Routine:

   • Wake up at least 1 hour before any data drop and 2 hours before market open.
   • Perform thorough analysis and mark key levels on the chart.
   • Define the 'line in the sand' for the trading session and the A+ setup.

8. Mental Preparedness:

   • If technical issues prevent trading, use the time to mentally execute trades and refine strategies.
   • Maintain discipline and avoid taking trades without clear confirmation.

9. VWAP Tracking:

   • Start tracking the Anchored VWAP on specific multi-day timelines to identify high probability trade entries.
   • Adjust VWAP settings to Daily, Week, and Month to align with key levels and use multi-day settings for more accurate entries.

10. Incorporate Weekly Analysis:

    • Incorporate analysis of weekly trends and FVGs to refine entry and exit strategies.
    • Adjust trades based on weekly trend reversals and significant levels identified on higher timeframes.

11. Track Data on Timeframes and VWAP Deviations:

    • Track the data on what timeframe perfectly aligns with each multi-day VWAP deviation.
    • Note the exact timeframe in which the entry was presented for future reference and high probability entries.

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No trade day.

This Trade Of The Day setup was basically an opeing short trade for both the premarket and session open.

It was very volatile, there was not any Daily VWAP band touches, nor VWAP touches, nor Mean Reversion setups present. And I happened to notice, basically all of the elite traders that I follow, had a red trading day today. So I guess it was a good decision for me not to trade, since I didnt see any high probability setups occur.

During yesterdays premarket open, due to the H12 downtrend, Daily downtrend, and bearish shift in the Weekly downtrend up a break of the Upper Weekly FVG, I assume that a stoploss on the top of the FVG from the 9:30 open may havem been a plausable setup, but the major issue is that the stoploss would have been around 80-100 points, way too far. I wanted a tight entry with size, I just couldnt find it. I was at mimimum waiting for a VWAP retest and failure, but the sell side on the day was volatile and had alot of momentum. It was a 9:30 open, in the center of the middle and bottom VWAP band, with a consisent downside trend, with no extremities to trade against. 

Something I did also take note of today, was that my VWAP settings can be adjusted to DAILY, WEEK & MONTH settings. And with this, I can still utilize as an Anchored VWAP, with multi day settings from 1D-5D on the WEEK setting, and also 1D-20D settings for the MONTH settings. I will play with this in the future, as its deviational bands, seem to align with key levels. AND if I miss the moves from the extension of these bands, I WANT TO TRACK THE DATA ON WHAT TIMEFRAME PERFECTLY ALIGNED WITH EACH MULTIDAY VWAP DEVIATION, AND THE EXACT TIMEFRAME IN WHICH THE ENTRY WAS PRESENTED, therefore in the future, I can refer back, and get high probability entries.